Sen. Johnson Seen as Increasingly Safe in S. Dakota

Sen. Tim Johnson, who a year and a half ago suffered a near-fatal brain hemorrhage on Capitol Hill, is increasingly being seen as tough for the Republicans to defeat in November.

Congressional Quarterly has moved Johnson's Senate seat into the Safe Democrat category from the Favored Democrat one. Even though the GOP knocked off Senate Minority Leader South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle in 2004, and Johnson only won his seat in 2002 by 524 votes, Johnson's comeback from his illness has generated a lot of public support for him.

Johnson's seat was seen as a possible pick-up for the GOP in the fall.

But there are also more practical problems facing the Republicans in South Dakota: "... none of the four candidates who have stated intentions to run for this year's Republican Senate nomination appears at this point to have the political and fundraising clout to provide a serious threat to unseat Johnson."

"I think some of the candidates who had considered running were reluctant to run against [Johnson] this year because it would be a very, very difficult campaign to run. Even legitimate criticisms about voting records and things like that would be seen as personal attacks," said Brent Lerseth, professor of political science at Augustana College in Sioux Falls.

"Part of it has to do, I think, with the fact that Johnson's extremely popular in the state. Part of it has to do with the recent events, and I think part of it has to do with [the fact that] we don't have anybody on the Republican side that is a clear front candidate unless somebody like Gov. Rounds decided to turn around and run, which is not likely anytime soon," Lerseth said.

Although much can change in six months, not having to worry about Johnson's seat means that Democrats can devote valuable resources to closer Senate races.

2:59 PM ET | 03-19-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post