Bloggers React to the State of the Union

Among bloggers, the overall reaction so far to President Bush's final State of the Union address appears to be that it gets a passing grade but was nothing special. Many described it as a conciliatory speech, especially considering that he will need to work with a Democratic Congress to achieve many of the goals of his last year in office.

Ed Morrissey of the conservative Captain's Quarters wrote:

"It didn't move me much. He had his moments; his slam on earmarks was much appreciated, even if he didn't take the action we wanted. It's a huge improvement over where we were at just two years ago on the subject. His promise to veto any new taxes also satisfied me. The recitation of the success in Iraq was, I thought, particularly effective. However, most of the rest of the speech seemed boilerplate and rote, and not particularly well delivered. Bush has been a mostly mediocre speaker, with a couple of moments in his terms where he seemed moved to eloquence. We know he can reach those heights when circumstances demand it, but otherwise he just sounds either diffident or annoyed."

Matt Lewis at Townhall.com writes that many conservatives aren't sure what to think of the speech and of the president himself:

"President Bush did [acknowledge] problems in the economy, including a housing crisis. My guess is that he fears being seen as out-of-touch, the way his father was in 1991, when a recession hit and probably cost him re-election. While most conservatives are less than thrilled over the currently proposed stimulus package, most conservatives will applaud his call to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. The real question is whether or not this is simply rhetoric -- or if he's willing to fight for them."

Even A.J. Rossmiller of the liberal AMERICAblog couldn't get very worked up:

"Look ma, no legacy! As far as I can tell, the big goals for this year are (1) reducing earmarks, and (2) scaring people. On the one hand, it's not very ambitious. On the other, he might actually be able to handle those goals. But none of our big problems will be helped. 2009 can't come soon enough."

Just a note: Please continue to post your comments. If we miss any tonight, we'll post them first thing in the morning.

11:05 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Extending the Bush Tax Cuts

From the speech:
"We have other work to do on taxes. Unless the Congress acts, most of the tax relief we have delivered over the past seven years will be taken away. Some in Washington argue that letting tax relief expire is not a tax increase. Try explaining that to 116 million American taxpayers who would see their taxes rise by an average of $1,800."

Analysis:
The president's use of averages is misleading and masks who actually benefits most from his tax cuts. The Citizens for Tax Justice estimate that the middle 20 percent of Americans will receive 11 percent of the Bush tax cuts between 2001 and 2010, while the top 1 percent will receive 36 percent. That means the middle 20 percent would lose about $540 a year in tax breaks if the Bush tax cuts are not renewed. The top 1 percent would lose an average of $34,000 a year.

- John Ydstie

10:08 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (14) | e-mail post

FactWatch: The Economy

From the speech:
"As we meet tonight, our economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty. America has added jobs for a record 52 straight months, but jobs are now growing at a slower pace. Wages are up, but so are prices for food and gas. Exports are rising, but the housing market has declined. And at kitchen tables across our country, there is concern about our economic future."

Analysis:
President Bush acknowledged the economy faces difficulties, but glossed over the seriousness of the problem. Some economists believe the U.S. is already in recession. The situation in the housing market is especially difficult. Today, the Commerce Department reported a record drop in new home sales in 2007 — they fell more than 26 percent. As a result of the bursting of the housing bubble, millions of Americans face foreclosure and could lose their homes. The troubles in the U.S. housing market have spread to the rest of the world through complicated securities that included subprime U.S. mortgages. There is fear that ultimately the global economy could fall into recession.

- John Ydstie

10:00 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Intelligence Surveillance

From the speech:
"One of the most important tools we can give them is the ability to monitor terrorist communications. To protect America, we need to know who the terrorists are talking to, what they are saying, and what they are planning. Last year, the Congress passed legislation to help us do that. Unfortunately, the Congress set the legislation to expire on Feb. 1. This means that if you do not act by Friday, our ability to track terrorist threats would be weakened and our citizens will be in greater danger. The Congress must ensure the flow of vital intelligence is not disrupted. The Congress must pass liability protection for companies believed to have assisted in the efforts to defend America. We have had ample time for debate. The time to act is now."

Analysis:
The Protect America Act, passed by Congress last August, expires on Feb. 1. That legislation expanded powers available to the administration under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, especially with respect to the monitoring of electronic communication (e-mails, for example) between suspected terrorists who are outside the United States but whose communications pass through switching networks in U.S. territory. Under existing legislation, the attorney general has to certify that the surveillance meets the legal conditions. Those certifications will not expire on Feb. 1. There will be no disruption of current monitoring. The wiretapping can continue regardless of what Congress does. It is true, however, that the executive branch will not be able to make new certifications and therefore open new surveillance cases.

- Tom Gjelten

9:54 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Iran

From the speech:
"Our message to the people of Iran is clear: We have no quarrel with you, we respect your traditions and your history, and we look forward to the day when you have your freedom. Our message to the leaders of Iran is also clear: Verifiably suspend your nuclear enrichment, so negotiations can begin. And to rejoin the community of nations, come clean about your nuclear intentions and past actions, stop your oppression at home and cease your support for terror abroad. But above all, know this: America will confront those who threaten our troops, we will stand by our allies and we will defend our vital interests in the Persian Gulf."

Analysis:
President Bush, who in a previous State of the Union address labeled Iran as part of an axis of evil, has adopted the language of United Nations Security Council resolutions, saying negotiations can begin once Iran verifiably suspends nuclear enrichment. The Bush administration is in the midst of difficult diplomatic negotiations on another sanctions resolution at the U.N., hoping to build up pressure on Iran. However, news that the U.S. intelligence community believes that Iran suspended a nuclear weapons program back in 2003 has made the sanctions debate more complicated, according to diplomats.

- Michele Kelemen

9:53 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Middle East

From the speech:
"We are also standing against the forces of extremism in the Holy Land, where we have new cause for hope. Palestinians have elected a president who recognizes that confronting terror is essential to achieving a state where his people can live in dignity and at peace with Israel. Israelis have leaders who recognize that a peaceful, democratic Palestinian state will be a source of lasting security. This month in Ramallah and Jerusalem, I assured leaders from both sides that America will do, and I will do, everything we can to help them achieve a peace agreement that defines a Palestinian state by the end of this year. The time has come for a Holy Land where a democratic Israel and a democratic Palestine live side-by-side in peace."

Analysis:
In addition to the many troubling questions in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, a new one has emerged, one President Bush has not addressed. Hamas, which doesn't recognize Israel, controls Gaza, and in response to Hamas rocket attacks, Israel has tried to seal off the region. Now, the U.S. is hoping forces loyal to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas can help, but Abbas has little, if any, control over Gaza and his Security Forces are still weak. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said that there can be no peace without Gaza as part of the package.

- Michele Kelemen

9:52 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

Fact Watch: Iraq

From the speech:
"In Iraq, the terrorists and extremists are fighting to deny a proud people their liberty and to establish safe havens for attacks across the world."

Analysis:
True. But al-Qaida is just one problem in Iraq. So, too, is the sectarian division -- another serious problem. The National Police, for example, are rife with Shiite death squad members and many commanders have had to be fired.

From the speech:
"And today this grassroots surge includes more than 80,000 Iraqi citizens who are fighting the terrorists."

Analysis:
True, but few of those so-called Concerned Local Citizens, who are essentially an armed neighborhood watch, are being absorbed into the Iraqi Security Forces. And the U.S. taxpayer is paying $300 per month for most of those citizens. The Shiite-dominated government doesn't trust them because most are Sunni and some were former insurgents. Now, the Americans are working on a plan to hire the bulk of those who aren't allowed into the security forces for public service jobs.

From the speech:
"Our objective in the coming year is to sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007 ... American troops are shifting from leading operations to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to a protective overwatch mission."

Analysis:
The real question is, as American surge troops draw down, will the Iraqi forces be able to pick up the slack? Most of the gains in 2007 were the result of 30,000 more American troops. And as far as that shift, it will take many years. Maj. Gen. James Dubik, the top American trainer of Iraqi forces, told Congress that the Iraqi defense minister had estimated when the Iraqis could reach that "overwatch" phase where Americans would be in a supervisory role. The minister estimated that the Iraqis could take control of internal security sometime between 2009 and 2012, and external security sometime between 2018 and 2020.

From the speech:
"Progress in the provinces must be matched by progress in Baghdad."

Analysis:
That's the rub. There is reconciliation going on at the local level, but little at the national level in Baghdad. There is little movement on the "benchmarks" on political reconciliation that the president outlined last year.

From the speech:
"The national government is sharing oil revenues with the provinces."

Analysis:
True, but no oil law has been passed. A key sticking point? The Kurds in the north want more control over the oil in their area and are balking.

From the speech:
"The parliament recently passed both a pension law and de-Baathification reform."

Analysis:
The de-Baathification law passed was more restrictive than the one that the U.S. wanted. It may worsen sectarian problems by forcing out many Sunnis in the government, especially officials in the security forces. And there are concerns about how the law will be implemented by the Shiite-led government and how many pensions will be forthcoming for Sunnis.

From the speech:
"Now they are debating a provincial powers law."

Analysis:
And they have been debating it for more than two years. Sunnis want provincial elections so they can have a greater say in how they are governed. But the Shiite government is balking. Many in the Sunni enclave of Anbar Province have little trust in the government. One Marine general told NPR in the fall of 2006 that if provincial elections were not held in 2007, we will have "problems." President Bush last January said he expected the elections "later this year."

- Tom Bowman

9:51 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Entitlement Reform

From the speech:
"Every member in this chamber knows that spending on entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is growing faster than we can afford. And we all know the painful choices ahead if America stays on this path: massive tax increases, sudden and drastic cuts in benefits, or crippling deficits."

Analysis:
What Bush didn't say is that he will soon have to propose another bill with painful choices. Under the terms of the 2003 law that created the Medicare prescription drug benefit, Bush must propose in the next three weeks a bill to bring Medicare spending that comes from general tax revenues (as opposed to the Medicare payroll tax) back down to 45 percent of total Medicare spending. And by law, those cuts can't come from increased taxes. That will mean some combination of cuts in benefits, payments to doctors and other providers of health care, and beneficiary premiums. Not likely to be popular in an election year. And also under the terms of that 2003 law, Congress will be required to debate (although not necessarily to pass) that legislation this year.

- Julie Rovner

9:50 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post

FactWatch: The Surge in Iraq

From the speech:
"While the enemy is still dangerous and more work remains, the American and Iraqi surges have achieved results few of us could have imagined just one year ago."

Analysis:
True, the surge has achieved results. There is unquestionably better security throughout the country, although there are now dangerous pockets of insurgent activity around the northern city of Mosul. But the "enemy" the president refers to apparently means al-Qaida. He fails to mention the rampant sectarianism, including the Shiite militias who have worked their way into the security forces, particularly the National Police. That is a serious threat to reconciliation among Shiites and Sunnis. He talks of the Iraqi "surge," which includes both the Iraqi army and police, but fails to say that the National Police are both corrupt and undermanned. Many leaders have had to be replaced.

From the speech:
"Ladies and gentlemen, some may deny the surge is working, but among the terrorists there is no doubt. Al-Qaida is on the run in Iraq, and this enemy will be defeated."

Analysis:
There's no question that al-Qaida is on the run, heading into northern Iraq around the areas of Mosul or south of Baghdad into Arab Jabour. But the whole point of the surge was to create what administration officials called "breathing space" for reconciliation. And on that point there has been little progress.

- Tom Bowman

9:45 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Freedom Agenda

From the speech:
"Our foreign policy is based on a clear premise: We trust that people, when given the chance, will choose a future of freedom and peace. In the last seven years, we have witnessed stirring moments in the history of liberty. We have seen citizens in Georgia and Ukraine stand up for their right to free and fair elections. We have seen people in Lebanon take to the streets to demand their independence. We have seen Afghans emerge from the tyranny of the Taliban to choose a new president and a new parliament. We have seen jubilant Iraqis holding up ink-stained fingers and celebrating their freedom. And these images of liberty have inspired us."

Analysis:
President Bush often talks about what he calls his "freedom agenda" in the Middle East, arguing the U.S. relied on a false stability in the region in the past. But the democracy agenda took a hit when Hamas, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, won elections in the Palestinian territories two years ago and when the Muslim Brotherhood made gains in elections in Egypt before that. The president never mentions those elections, though the U.S. had been encouraging both votes to take place. The president has also toned down his criticism of key Arab allies. When he met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and other leaders during a recent swing through the Middle East, Bush did not openly criticize anyone's rule, but rather gently nudged for reforms and talked about the long term rather than the near term.

- Michele Kelemen

9:35 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Climate Change

From the speech:
"Let us create a new international clean technology fund, which will help developing nations like India and China make greater use of clean energy sources. And let us complete an international agreement that has the potential to slow, stop and eventually reverse the growth of greenhouse gases. This agreement will be effective only if it includes commitments by every major economy and gives none a free ride."

Analysis:
The Bush administration has been discussing such a fund with Japan and the United Kingdom, to be used to help developing countries enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Such a proposal, pegged at $2 billion, could face tough going in Congress, however, from members who insist that the larger "developing" countries be required to reduce their own emissions as part of any international climate agreement. The administration is sympathetic to that view, signaling so in the address tonight with the words that "This agreement will be effective only if it includes commitments by every major economy and gives none a free ride." Even if that much money can be raised, it amounts to 1 percent of what the United Nations has estimated to be necessary to develop the technology worldwide to hold warming to acceptable levels.

As for an international agreement to slow and reverse growth of greenhouse gases, the president has never supported the Kyoto Protocol, the only international agreement so far with specific limits and mechanisms for reducing warming — one that every industrialized nation except the U.S. has signed onto. The Bush administration began a parallel process last year, inviting major economies, including China and India, to Washington to talk about encouraging technological innovation to reduce warming. This "major economies" initiative is viewed by the rest of the industrialized world as a U.S. alternative to the Kyoto Protocol, and most are very skeptical. The second major economies meeting is scheduled for later this week in Hawaii, but so far the White House has indicated there won't be specific proposals laid on the table. Moreover, the target for any agreement to emerge from it is 2009 — after Bush leaves office.

- Christopher Joyce

9:28 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Energy and Climate Change

From the speech:
"Last year, I asked you to pass legislation to reduce oil consumption over the next decade, and you responded. Together we should take the next steps. Let us fund new technologies that can generate coal power while capturing carbon emissions. Let us increase the use of renewable power and emissions-free nuclear power. Let us continue investing in advanced battery technology and renewable fuels to power the cars and trucks of the future."

Analysis
The legislation President Bush is talking about is the new energy law, passed last December. It probably did more for the climate than anything the White House has conferred its blessing to: it raised fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks for the first time in 32 years. It failed on other counts, such as extending tax breaks for wind and solar power, however. Clean coal has been a familiar favorite of this White House, since the U.S. is rich with coal reserves. The biggest item on this count is Futuregen, a project to build a model coal-fired electricity plant that captures climate-warming carbon dioxide. It's late, over budget and stalled by paperwork hurdles at the Environmental Protection Agency. As for renewable fuels, the White House has pressed hard every year to demand more biofuels, mostly from corn to make ethanol that replaces gas in cars. That policy has succeeded in getting more ethanol into pumps, but the increased demand has also raised the price of corn. President Bush has encouraged scientists to learn how to make ethanol from other feedstocks, like prairie grass. That technology is several years in the future.

- Christopher Joyce

9:25 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Education Initiatives

From the speech:
"Now we must work together to increase accountability, add flexibility for states and districts, reduce the number of high school dropouts and provide extra help for struggling schools. Members of Congress: The No Child Left Behind Act is a bipartisan achievement. It is succeeding.

" ... I ask you to support a new $300 million program called Pell Grants for Kids. We have seen how Pell Grants help low-income college students realize their full potential. Together, we have expanded the size and reach of these grants. Now let's apply that same spirit to help liberate poor children trapped in failing public schools."

Analysis:
President Bush is proposing two education initiatives tonight that have two chances of being enacted — slim, and none. The president is asking once again for Congress to support a federal voucher program, proposing a $300 million program to help poor children in underperforming schools attend private or religious schools. The program has a new name, "Pell Grants for Kids," but it is likely to meet the same fate as other vouchers proposals: Democrats will shoot it down, arguing that vouchers take money away from public schools that are already starved for funds.

Ditto for the other proposal: reauthorizing No Child Left Behind. This initiative was one of the biggest successes of President Bush's first year in office, but last year, the president's efforts to reauthorize the program in its current form ran into a Democratic brick wall. Democratic leaders wanted to make substantial changes, and the administration refused to budge. This year is an election year, so it's even less likely that Congress will take up this controversial law. Most education watchers say nothing will happen until 2009.

- Larry Abramson

9:21 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (7) | e-mail post

FactWatch: Health Insurance

From the speech:
"So I have proposed ending the bias in the tax code against those who do not get their health insurance through their employer. This one reform would put private coverage within reach for millions, and I call on the Congress to pass it this year."

Analysis:
Yes, but that will still put only a small dent in the number of uninsured in America. According to an analysis of the president's plan by the private Lewin Group, in 2009 the tax changes would have the number of uninsured by 9.2 million from a projected 48.4 million people. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the reduction in the uninsured at 6.8 million people. The changes might also require some people with generous employer-provided coverage to pay taxes on that insurance for the first time, a significant reason why Congress didn't want to take this proposal up last year when it was first offered.

- Julie Rovner

9:18 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post

Fact-Checking the State of the Union 2008

We invite you to drop by our blog during President Bush's State of the Union speech, starting at 9 p.m. ET. NPR reporters and editors will be fact-checking the speech and posting their updates here. We hope you'll contribute your own comments.

Don Gonyea reported today on how Bush's State of the Union speeches have reflected his shifting focus during his presidency. Morning Edition also featured an interview with the two speechwriters who helped Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton write their final addresses.

6:34 PM ET | 01-28-2008 | permalink | comments (40) | e-mail post