Voting activists are busy crunching numbers today after balloting problems were reported yesterday in California, especially in Los Angeles County. It turns out that nine percent of the ballots cast in L.A. County showed no vote for president.
That's an unusually high number, and activists think it had something to do with confusion over ballots cast by independent or nonpartisan voters. Those individuals were allowed to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, but had to fill in a circle at the top of their ballots indicating that they were voting Democratic for their choices to count. A lot of voters complained they were confused and missed that step.
Late yesterday, the county's registrar-recorder Dean Logan issued a statement defending the procedure, noting that it was not new and had been explained in sample ballot booklets sent to voters. Still, Logan said his office would review the ballots to see if there was any widespread voter disenfranchisement. He said his office would try to determine if the problem had an impact on the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest. If it did, he said, his office would seek to count those ballots where the voter's intent could be determined.
Sen. Hillary Clinton beat Sen. Barack Obama in L.A. County. But, if you add all of the ballots showing no presidential choice -- 164,797 -- to Obama's total, he would be ahead by about 2,000 votes. Of course, that involves a huge assumption. It assumes that everyone whose ballot showed no presidential choice had wanted to vote in the Democratic presidential contest and that their choice was Obama.
--- Pam Fessler
2:41 PM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (10) | e-mail post
Considering political candidates frequently use Biblical metaphors to explain their actions during campaigns (Mike Huckabee practically retold David and Goliath during his speech on Super Tuesday), it's appropriate to think of Daniel going into the lion's den to describe Sen. John McCain's visit to the CPAC convention in Washington this week.
CPAC's yearly convention is the most important gathering of conservative Republicans for a presidential candidate to attend. John McCain's problem is that a lot of conservatives don't like him .... at all. So when he goes to the podium to give his speech Thursday at 3 p.m. in Washington's Omni Shoreham Hotel, it could be one of the most important speeches of his career. While he freely admits that there are some conservative hardliners, like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, that he will never win over, he knows he needs to generate enough support among other conservatives to help him win the nomination.
Matt Lewis writes at townhall.com that just as Mitt Romney had to give a "Mormon" speech, McCain needs to give a "conservative" speech.
The CPAC speech will tell us a lot about McCain. If it's a stump speech about him being a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," we will know that is perfunctory pablum and that he didn't care enough to write something new. In that case, it is likely to assume he didn't want to give the speech, was probably talked into it by his staff, and isn't willing to humble himself by really trying. But if McCain looks us in the eye, acknowledge problems, but promises ... promises ... he will make conservatives proud on issues ranging from Life, to Judges, to taxes. Then, he has a chance.
If it's a stump speech about him being a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," we will know that is perfunctory pablum and that he didn't care enough to write something new. In that case, it is likely to assume he didn't want to give the speech, was probably talked into it by his staff, and isn't willing to humble himself by really trying.
But if McCain looks us in the eye, acknowledge problems, but promises ... promises ... he will make conservatives proud on issues ranging from Life, to Judges, to taxes. Then, he has a chance.
Hot Air notes that last year McCain was the only declared GOP presidential candidate not to attend CPAC, and this has left lingering bad feelings. But in a conversation with National Review Online's Kathyrn Jean Lopez, Republican strategist Mary Matalin offers a "trust but verify" strategy for McCain tomorrow.
11:07 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post
Here's an e-mail from reader Rachelle Ankney:
Thanks NPR for succinct factual news, as always. I'd like to see news blogs on two things: (1) I am a relatively young (36) voter who voted for Clinton, along with a number of friends. Much of the election news coverage focuses on dividing the country in to little "camps" and telling us how we'll vote. As a Clinton supporter, I hear myself placed in the "geezer" camp, the "over 40" camp, and so forth. Is this segregation merely an unfortunate side effect of the need to predict? (2) I'm a radio listener, but yesterday I watched more television than I usually do all year. Pundits were amazed at the "unprecedented" voter turnouts yesterday, citing the country's readiness for change as the single factor. I didn't hear any comments on the fact that holding primaries and caucuses earlier probably just made a lot more people feel as if their vote counted. It was the first time in my life that my primary vote counted for anything at all (in a presidential race). Of course, pundits rarely take the prosaic explanation, but it seems obvious to me that there would be record turnout this year ...
(2) I'm a radio listener, but yesterday I watched more television than I usually do all year. Pundits were amazed at the "unprecedented" voter turnouts yesterday, citing the country's readiness for change as the single factor. I didn't hear any comments on the fact that holding primaries and caucuses earlier probably just made a lot more people feel as if their vote counted. It was the first time in my life that my primary vote counted for anything at all (in a presidential race).
Of course, pundits rarely take the prosaic explanation, but it seems obvious to me that there would be record turnout this year ...
Good questions. I think it is true, pundits and reporters tend to categorize voters as a way to unlock elections.
And reports this morning say the turnout, particularly in the Democratic primaries, was exceptionally high.
So if you voted yesterday, what drove you to the polls: the feeling of change in the air, the idea that your vote would count more than it did in the past, or a belief that citizens have a duty to vote?
10:18 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (12) | e-mail post
Super Tuesday was indeed a super day for Republican Sen. John McCain. By the time the votes had been counted, McCain joked with his supporters that they would have to get use to being described as the frontrunners for the nomination, rather than always thinking of themselves as the come-back kids.
By winning all four of the big states up for grabs - New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California - McCain ensured that he would garner the lion's share of the delegates for the evening. In total, he won 51.
But while they didn't win the big prizes, former Massacusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee did well in the smaller states. Romney won many of the Western states that were holding caucuses, while Huckabee surprised a lot of people by winning five southern states. As a result, Romney won 176 delegate slots while Huckabee picked up 147. Texas Rep. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates during the evening.
As of 8 a.m.EST this morning, and after you add all the pledged party officials and elected representatives (Republicans don't have super delegates, but do have some slots for these positions), McCain has 613 delegates, Romney 269, Huckabee 190 and Paul 14.
That means McCain needs another 578 delegates to win the nomination. So while it's appropriate to give McCain the frontrunner label, this race is also far from over.
8:39 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
In the state-by-state battle between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that shaped up over the course of the evening Tuesday, many readers asked the same question: what about the delegate count? Since the delegates were awarded on a district by district basis in some states, it took until this morning to get a more accurate picture. But here is what we know so far.
Super Tuesday was practically a wash between the two Democrats, with Clinton winning 584 delegates and Obama scooping up 563. While Clinton won the most delegates, it's hard not to see Obama as the winner - by taking so many smaller states like Delaware and Georgia, he blunted the impact of Clinton's win in the big states like California and New York.
After the primaries and caucuses held so far, Clinton has won slightly more delegates, 632 to 626 (not counting Florida and Michigan).
But add in those super delegates we talked about in the blog the other day (party and elected officials) and her total grows larger. In the end, when you tally all the delegates won and pledged (at least as of reports at 8 a.m. this morning - and this might change over the day), Clinton has 845 delegates so far while Obama has 765.
It's still a long way to the 2025 needed to win the nomination.
8:21 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
From the 24 states that held contests on Super Tuesday, the traveling presidential caravan and tent show will next set up camp for contests Saturday in Louisiana (Is it wise to hold a primary on the heels of Mardi Gras?), Washington, Kansas (Republicans only) and Nebraska (just Democrats).
From there, the contests include what we in the Mid-Atlantic are calling the Potomac primary on Tuesday, when voters in Maryland, Virginia and here in Washington, D.C., will cast their votes. If the race hasn't sorted itself out by the end of the month, it's on to Ohio and Texas in March. Both are big plums for whomever wins them, and the nomination picture for both parties is likely to look a lot clearer then.
-- Brian Naylor
Note: Please continue to post your comments throughout the night. We will post anything we haven't gotten to during business hours on Wednesday.
3:10 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
Let's take a look at the big picture now. Thanks to NPR's cool, interactive, multi-colored map, one can reach a few conclusions about how this race is shaping up for Republicans and Democrats.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee isn't going away. He hasn't won a state north of the Mason-Dixon Line, except for Iowa, and he may not have much money. But he could easily pull in a few more Southern prizes with primaries yet to come in states like Louisiana and Mississippi, and if nothing else, play a spoiler role. The spoilee stands to be Mitt Romney. On Tuesday, John McCain's backers in West Virginia threw their support behind Huckabee, rather than let Romney win. Romney's problem isn't money — he's got lots of that. Romney just hasn't been able to win over enough of the party's social conservative base. Evangelical Christians have backed Huckabee, the former Baptist minister.
Romney has captured wins along the northern Plains, the mountain West, and in two states he's called home, Michigan and Massachusetts. But the big delegate prizes on Super Tuesday went to McCain — states like California, New York and New Jersey, where voters tend to fit his more moderate profile. He won nearly a 4-to-1 advantage in delegates Tuesday, and it's hard to figure how Romney can catch up.
Among Democrats, both candidates could claim wins on Tuesday. Sen. Barack Obama put more states in his column, including his home state of Illinois and the largest state, Alaska. But Clinton won the most populous states, California and her home state, New York, and has a slight lead among delegates, which Democrats award on a proportional basis. And while Clinton has set her sights on November — based on her victory speech Tuesday night with references to the Republicans' attack machine — the battle for the Democratic nomination is far from over.
2:47 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
In his seventh victory of the night, NPR predicts that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Republican caucuses in Alaska.
Mike Huckabee was second, Ron Paul was third and John McCain was fourth.
2:33 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama picked up yet another victory in a "small" (or sparsely populated) state, winning the Democratic caucuses in Alaska.
The Obama campaign's strategy has been to concentrate much of its resources on these less-populated states in an effort to counteract the victories that polls showed Sen. Hillary Clinton could win in vote-rich states like New York and California — states where she did win tonight.
1:31 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
I'm at the California state GOP party. The room is full, but the wide majority of the party faithful here are Mitt Romney supporters. Romney's son Matt received thunderous applause and rallying cries when he showed up earlier in the evening. Matt Romney is a commercial real estate broker in San Diego.
It is a bit hard to find a McCain supporter here. I did talk with a McCain campaign worker feverishly trying to hand out McCain stickers. Despite the constant "no thanks" from the crowd, she didn't stop smiling. Maybe that's because McCain did so well in the state. About 9:30 tonight, GOP organizers finally turned the mike over to "Team McCain." When the campaign rep took the stage, he told the mildly cheering crowd that he felt like he was behind enemy lines.
-- Carrie Kahn
1:12 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
New Mexico had what it called a Democratic caucus today, though it seemed more like a primary because people voted at polling places rather than meeting to discuss candidates.
Vote counting is going very slowly, with none of the major urban areas — Albuquerque and Santa Fe — counted four hours after the polls have closed. Clinton has a slight lead so far.
-- Ted Robbins
1:10 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Don't just spin behind the scenes! Announce it publicly!
Over the course of the night, the Hillary Clinton camp has repeatedly sent e-mails to political reporters containing its talking points. Those are the consultant-crafted, focus-group-tested, easily digestible assertions that a candidate's big-name supporters repeat robotically for the benefit of every cable channel and radio station and newspaper columnist. They either boast of infallibility or explain away losses.
NPR's Mara Liasson says she received those talking points five times tonight — five times! Usually, they are closely guarded by the campaigns, even though they're ultimately relatively easy to discern — but these e-mails strip the process unusually bare.
Was it a mistake? The Los Angeles Times sure thinks so, but Liasson argues (and I think persuasively) not — she says the Clintonistas want people in the press to know precisely what they're thinking — or at least, what they say they're thinking...
We reproduce an example of the talking points below. This one is about the state of Missouri, shortly after Clinton was projected to have won the state:
MISSOURI
Barack Obama outspent Hillary by $300,000 in TV ads in Missouri.
He also benefited from the endorsements of high-profile surrogates across the state such as Representatives Carnahan and Clay, and Senator McCaskill, all of whom actively campaigned for him and appeared in ads on his behalf.
Despite these challenges -- and with the help of Kansas City Congressman Emanuel Cleaver and Former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt -- Hillary Clinton won this important toss-up state.
Remember, Hillary Clinton had an important win, against the odds, says objective observer Hillary Clinton.
-- David Folkenflik
Update: Did she speak too soon? The Associated Press has pulled back from its projection of a Clinton win in Missouri, and several of the TV networks are now calling the state for Barack Obama. NPR is holding back until we can get a more accurate count of the returns. Stay tuned.
Another Update: This was the subject line from a message Obama spokesman Bill Burton sent to reporters at 12:44 a.m. that forwards the talking points from Hillary Clinton taking credit for winning Missouri:
"Subject: a press release the Clinton campaign wishes it hadn't sent out"
12:56 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (6) | e-mail post
Remember that post about how NPR has projected Hillary Clinton the winner of Missouri, and how elections in the state are always close? Well, the second part of that statement was more accurate than we knew.
The Associated Press has pulled back from its projection of a Clinton win in Missouri, and several of the TV networks are now calling the state for Barack Obama. NPR is holding back until we can get a more accurate count of the returns. Stay tuned.
12:55 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (5) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Mitt Romney has picked up two important victories in Republican caucuses in Montana and Colorado.
Montana in particular is a key victory, as it is a winner-take-all state — its 25 delegates will now go into the Romney camp.
12:48 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
I'm at the Hillary Clinton party in Los Angeles, or to be more precise, at a union hall in Burbank.
Barack Obama leads his supporters in chants of "Yes, we can! Yes, we can!" Clinton's supporters here have their answer to that. When California was called for Clinton, the chants went up: "Yes, SHE can. Yes, she can!"
-- Ina Jaffe
12:40 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. Hillary Clinton will handily win the prime Democratic primary of Super Tuesday: California. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain will take the state's Republican primary.
California was the state with the largest number of delegates at stake. While Clinton won't win all the delegates, winning the state is a seen as a key building block towards winning the nomination.
For McCain, it's his fourth victory in the four big states at stake on Super Tuesday: New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California.
12:22 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post
In Missouri, where elections tend to be close, NPR has declared Hillary Clinton the winner for the Democrats and John McCain for the Republicans. Clinton's win came despite the efforts of the state's junior senator, Claire McCaskill, who endorsed Barack Obama from neighboring Illinois.
Clinton did well in the rural, more conservative parts of the state, while Obama won the urban areas. Both campaigns stopped there in recent days, as did the three Republican candidates. Missouri will be the site of a big battle in the fall as well, if for no other reason that only once in the last 100 years has the winner of the state not wound up in the White House.
Now that's a bellwether.
Update: The Associated Press has pulled back from its projection of a Clinton win in Missouri, and several of the TV networks are now calling the state for Barack Obama. NPR is holding back until we can get a more accurate count of the returns. Stay tuned.
12:21 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (13) | e-mail post
Pretty much counted out from the outset, Mike Huckabee surprised the pundits last fall, took the Iowa caucuses, and came out roaring, only to fade away - until now, that is, when the former governor won several states such as Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee and his home state of Arkansas (thanks, NPR projections desk!) and got if not a total new life at least a second wind ... particularly if he doesn't mind playing second banana ...
Over at Betsy's Page, conservative blogger Betsy Newmark says the results took her by surprise:
"Gee, I'd almost forgotten about Huckabee and here he is showing his southern appeal. I saw somewhere that people were speculating that Huckabee's showing tonight would make him an appealing running mate for John McCain. I just don't see that. McCain's problem is with the conservative base and other than the social conservatives, Huckabee has his own problem with conservatives. And in a general election, I would think that picking Huckabee would negate a lot of McCain's appeal to independents."
Similarly, Andrew Sullivan, the Tory turned libertarian turned Obamaniac turned wacky headline punster ...
"McHuckabee?
"This strikes me as the big news tonight. Mike Huckabee's remarkable strength in the South is proof to me of the resilience of Christianist populism in the current GOP coalition. I can't see how either Romney or Huckabee can ultimately topple McCain, but I can see that Huckabee is proving a serious contender for the veep slot. The big imponderable is obviously California. If Romney beats McCain there, he doesn't seriously challenge him but he sure bloodies him - perhaps critically. This has been only an average night for the Republican front-runner. At this point, one begins to wonder if the GOP isn't in serious disarray for a while."
Michael Goldfarb, editor of WorldwideStandard.com, gets in on the act, but argues that John McCain was the big winner today -- if only because Mitt Romney fared relatively poorly.
"Tonight's results do not benefit Romney--no matter how his enthusiastic supporters in the blogosphere might try to spin it. There's really no way for Romney to challenge McCain down the stretch unless he pulls out a surprisingly strong win in California. And even if Romney does win big in California, he still faces an uphill fight because it's not a winner take all state. Huckabee's right, it's a two-man race and Romney isn't in it. But Romney's right, too--Huck isn't electable, and he will not take the nomination. So it's a muddled result for the Republicans, but McCain's going to win."
McCain a dead lock? On the right side of the political spectrum, bloggers seem to be figuring out how inevitable inevitable really is.
--- David Folkenflik
12:12 AM ET | 02- 6-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
In two contests that had been close all evening, NPR projects that Sen. John McCain will take the winner-take-all delegate state of Missouri, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee wins in Tennessee.
McCain will pick up 58 delegates as a result of his victory tonight in Missouri.
11:59 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Voters here in Alabama are revelling in the success of today's primary ... And not just because it's Fat Tuesday (a state holiday in Mobile). They told me today they feel they have a say in the presidential nominating process for the first time. The state usually holds its primaries in June, long after the party's nominees are picked.
Candidates rarely came here, other than to raise money early on. That was different this time around. Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton all campaigned here.
Meanwhile, there was a real appreciation of the historical significance of the Democratic contest in Birmingham, a city that was known as Bombingham during the civil rights movement. At the polling site at Legion Field, an aging football stadium on the west side of town, older African American voters recalled a day when they could never imagine they'd have the opportunity to vote for a black candidate for president. Many said they would be happy with either Hillary Clinton or Obama, but felt compelled to cast their ballots today for Obama, who won the state.
-- Debbie Elliott
11:49 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
In a surprise to no one, NPR projects that Sen. John McCain has won the Republican primary in Arizona.
McCain has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987 (he's now in his fourth term). He also served in the House from 1983-86.
11:38 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
In another close contest, NPR projects that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win a narrow victory in Missouri. With 87 percent of the polls reporting, Clinton leads 50 percent to 47 percent.
11:33 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (9) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. Hillary Clinton will pick up the victory in Arizona, while Sen. Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses in Idaho.
So far, Obama has won 11 primaries or caucuses tonight, while Clinton has won seven.
11:27 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Mitt Romney picked up his third and fourth victories of Super Tuesday, winning the caucuses in North Dakota and Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama picked up another win, taking the Democratic caucuses in Colorado.
11:20 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
There were scattered voting problems reported in states today, but there didn't appear to be any major disasters — except for the individual voters affected.
Election Protection, a nonpartisan voting watchdog group, said it received hundreds of calls on its hotline from voters in New York City. Many complained that they showed up at the polls only to find that their names were not on the registration lists. This included some Brooklyn voters who had lived and voted in the same precinct for more than 20 years. Similar problems were reported in New Jersey and Arizona. Election officials said one problem could have been that individuals were not registered as either Republicans and Democrats, which was a requirement in some states.
Long lines and machine problems also were reported in some states. In Georgia, voters waited for as long as two hours because of problems with new electronic poll books used to verify voters' ID and registration status. In New Jersey, it took poll workers about 45 minutes to get machines working in the voting place used by the state's governor, Jon Corzine. Corzine told NPR that he had to wait 15 minutes before he was able to cast his ballot.
Some polling places opened late in Illinois because of machine problems. In one precinct, about 20 voters were mistakenly given styluses designed for electronic touchscreen machines to mark their paper ballots. When the voters complained that nothing was showing up on the ballots, they were told that's because the markers were filled with invisible ink! Election officials said they were trying to contact the voters after they found out what had happened.
In the Los Angeles area, two polling places didn't open until about noon, meaning some voters couldn't vote when they showed up in the morning. Other California voters, who did not state a party preference on their registrations, complained that they were told they couldn't vote in the Democratic primary — even though they should have been allowed to do so.
In all, election experts say the problems were fairly small, considering the large turnout. But sometimes it takes days — and some close contests — before the full extent of problems becomes clear.
-- Pam Fessler
11:17 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
One of the enduring questions on the Democratic side as the night unfolds is how the vote tallies will be translated into delegates. There are no winner-take-all states for the Democrats. Instead, the Dems award delegates in a maddeningly complex proportional formula that folds in how a candidate does not only statewide but by smaller districts. So the margins of victory — and the distribution of votes — start to matter a lot.
One highly speculative but highly engaging posting that's been getting a fair amount of play around the blogosphere comes from Chris Bowers on Open Left.com, a liberal blog. Bowers totes up some of the numbers and cites the split of the votes and states between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to make this grandiose declaration:
"It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year."
Let's pause to remember those "super delegates" are the party elders: officeholders and former office holders and, oh, well, let's be honest about it, Sen. Clinton's husband, whose allegiances we can likely guess. Bowers continues:
"On Super Tuesday, 22 states and a couple territories with a combined 1,688 pledged delegates will hold nominating contests ... From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama."
This is Bowers' math, not officially blessed by NPR's delegate-gaugers or Stephen Hawking or anyone like that. Still, he sketches out a reasonably plausible scenario that suggests an intense courtship of the super delegates after the breakneck pursuit of votes across the country.
11:05 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
Forget about your Super Tuesday, your delegate counts and exit polls.
Let's look at what really matters: the T-shirt tally. At the Web site CafePress.com, you can track sales of campaign paraphernalia — and this admittedly nonscientific tally shows a surge of Barack Obama sales in recent days.
After being virtually tied two weeks ago, Obama surged last week to 48 percent of all sales while Hillary Clinton fell to 19 percent. What does it all mean? Maybe the Obama supporters are all spending their expected economic stimulus checks? Maybe Clinton supporters have enough T-shirts clogging their dresser drawers already? Maybe we need a fashion analyst to sort it out.
11:03 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
The polls have just closed in California. According to network exit polls, the economy and immigration are the top two issues for Republican voters there.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is doing well with those who cited immigration, and Arizona Sen. John McCain among those who cited the economy. McCain is also favored by those who cite Iraq and terrorism.
Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton is doing very well among Latino voters, who make up a little less than a third of the electorate. Sen. Barack Obama continues to do well among African Americans, but they represent just 6 percent of California Democrats. Democrats who identify themselves as liberals are about evenly split between the two. Those Democrats who decided within the last three days broke for Obama.
11:01 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
After a neck-and-neck battle with Republican rival Sen. John McCain, NPR projects that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will win the Republican primary in Georgia.
As a winner-take-all state, it means that Huckabee picks up another 72 delegates to add to his total tonight.
It's Huckabee's fourth victory this evening: West Virginia, Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama. And he has small leads over McCain in Tennessee and Missouri with around 70 percent of the polls reporting in both states.
10:55 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. Barack Obama will pick up another state, Minnesota.
With 30 percent of the caucuses reporting, Obama has 64 percent of the reported votes to Sen. Hillary Clinton's 34 percent.
10:40 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
A few updates from Arizona:
-More voters requested early ballots for the primary than voted in the 2006 midterm general election. And a third of the electorate in the state is made up of independents — who couldn't even vote in the primary.
-Sporadic poll problems have been reported. Most interesting are a number of reports that independent voters who joined a party through the secretary of state's Web site were either turned away at the polls or told they'd joined the GOP when in fact they'd joined the Democratic Party. It turns out the computer system was down for hours on the last date to change — Jan. 7. They cast provisional ballots.
10:40 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. Barack Obama will win the Democratic primary in Connecticut by a close margin. With 72 percent of the polls reporting, Obama has a 3 percent lead, 50 to 47 percent.
With 48 delegates at stake, it's likely that Obama will pick up one or two more delegates than Clinton in such a tight race.
10:30 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
John McCain is showing some flashes of dominance tonight ... And that left me wondering how all those conservatives who have denounced the Arizona senator as insufficiently dedicated to the cause will handle it if he does take the nomination. Rush Limbaugh repeatedly castigated McCain; Ann Coulter memorably claimed last week she would vote for Hillary Clinton, if she were the Democratic nominee, over John McCain because she always votes for the more conservative candidate.
So it was of interest when I read the comments of Ed Morrissey, who writes the blog Captain's Quarters, who cast his vote tonight for McCain's rival Mitt Romney during the Republican caucuses in Minnesota.
Morrissey writes:
"Patrick Ruffini could be the most tireless conservative organizer in the on-line community. He is also one of the nicest people in politics. As such, I'd be remiss not to highlight his latest effort -- to generate donations for the eventual Republican presidential nominee, whether John McCain or Mitt Romney or even Mike Huckabee takes it.
"Patrick is looking towards the future now. Will he have many ready to follow his lead? Perhaps not until the dust and the hard feelings of the primaries subside a bit, but eventually I think most will. I'm not sure I'm ready to hit the tipjar on February 7th, but I'm going to back the GOP nominee."
Morrissey would suggest healing could begin ... But then fellow conservative blogger and radio host Hugh Hewitt seems still spiritedly pro-Romney tonight, even though Ruffini posts on his Web site, too. Here's what Hewitt posted tonight at 9:14 p.m.:
"It is stunning that Fox cannot call Arizona for John McCain. In the very unlikely event that McCain loses his home state, I don't think his campaign could recover any more than Romney could survive a loss in Massachusetts or Huckabee a loss in Arkansas.
"Given the Rush blast, the Dobson declaration, and Huck's strength in the south, McCain can't be considered a frontrunner by any conventional standard.
"All eyes on California."
If McCain is the nominee and wants to win the race, he'll have to get these conservative opinion leaders in the fold -- or he'll have to prove them less relevant than they might like to think.
10:25 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
NPR projects that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Republican primary in Utah, while Sen. Barack Obama will win the Democratic contest in the state.
Meanwhile, Obama is projected to also win the Democratic caucuses in North Dakota.
10:12 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
In another close contest between Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, NPR projects that McCain will win the Republican primary in Oklahoma. With 70 percent of the polls reporting, Mccain is leading 37 percent to 34 percent.
Although McCain was expected to battle former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in many states, Huckabee has often been his closest competitor tonight.
10:00 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
Showing strength in the Midwest, Sen. Barack Obama has won the Democratic caucuses in Kansas.
In a state where he had the largest campaign staff of any candidate of either party, Obama was leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 71 percent to 29 percent, with almost 40 percent of the polls reporting.
9:49 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
For those of you who haven't checked it out yet, we're doing a blow-by-blow of tonight's primary and caucus results using the group messaging tool Twitter.com. You can follow the action at twitter.com/nprnewsblog. All the posts are very brief - just a sentence or two - so the messages are flying fast and furious.
-- Andy Carvin, aka acarvin on Twitter
9:37 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (4) | e-mail post
NPR projects that in a close battle, Sen. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic primary in the state of New Jersey.
But as New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine pointed out in a conversation with NPR's Robert Siegel, it's all about the delegates. It's too early to know how the delegate count will break down, but there are 107 of them at stake in the state.
9:37 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Democratic voters are not only divided along race and gender lines, there is also a big divide along age lines.
Looking at network exit polls in New Jersey and Missouri, the trend is clear. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama does well among younger voters, while New York Sen. Hillary Clinton does really well among older ones. The problem for Obama is that older voters tend to turn out in much higher numbers than younger ones. And while there has been a lot of youthful enthusiasm for Obama, it has not been enough to overcome Clinton's edge with the seniors.
The economy seems to be the big issue on the minds of voters from both parties -- it came in well ahead of the war in Iraq. On the Republican side, McCain is the choice of those voters. But among voters who say they're looking for someone who "shares my values," the leading choice is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
9:27 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
NPR's Robert Siegel just called the pitched Democratic battle for the nomination "3-D chess" — and joked that the Republicans are playing electoral checkers.
And the press coverage of the past week reflects that — with John McCain the dominant player.
Republican rival Mitt Romney has long complained that McCain gets favorable treatment. The Project for Excellence in Journalism, a nonpartisan think tank that's part of the Pew Research Center and that actually spends great amount of time studying such things, says McCain sure has gotten a lot more attention.
Over the course of the past week leading up to Tuesday's cascade of primaries, PEJ found that McCain was a significant or dominant part of well over a third of all campaign coverage. That was about 75 percent more stories than Romney. Think about that. So that means for every four stories Romney gets, McCain gets seven, according to the PEJ. And it's largely been good news since the Florida primary — a whole mess of endorsements and strength in many media polls.
For another reality check, I searched Andrew Tyndall's invaluable database of network television news coverage and found a similar pattern. McCain dominated 11 stories on the Big Three nightly newscasts — Romney had just four. (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each rated nine stories.)
All of it means that McCain, the POW-turned-senator who takes joy in campaign banter and whose signature as a candidate is a bus called the "Straight Talk Express" has converted his rising electoral fortunes and the lingering affection of many of the reporters who cover him into coverage — and a lot of it.
Campaign bad boy and former President Bill Clinton kept a lower profile, according to the PEJ study — figuring in only 6 percent of stories last week.
9:27 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
In a major victory, NPR projects that Sen. John McCain will win the Republican primary in New York.
New York is another winner-take-all state. With his victory there tonight, McCain will pick up another 101 delegates.
9:18 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
Colorado is a caucus state, but somehow a lot of people here don't seem to know that. Throughout the day, people were showing up at their regular voting sites, asking for a ballot but receiving a lesson on the caucus process instead.
The phones at the Republican and Democratic parties' headquarters in Denver have been ringing like crazy all day. Just 20 minutes before caucus sites were set to open their doors (7 p.m. MT), phones at the Democratic headquarters were still going strong. State party chair Pat Waak says she's hearing two questions: "Am I a Democrat?" and "Where do I caucus?" She has a team of people who can answer both questions quickly.
Waak says in most presidential election years, less than 2 percent of Democrats in the state show up for the caucuses. But this year she's expecting at least several times that. Some 28,000 people in Colorado either changed their registration or signed up to be Democrats between September and the Dec. 5 deadline. Assuming that those who go to the trouble of changing their registration also plan to participate in the caucuses, that's twice the number of people who usually participate. And that's not counting the people who already were Democrats and will make a special effort to attend a caucus this year. Waak says already she's heard reports of lines at one caucus site out the door and around the block.
Fortunately, people in Denver know how to dress warmly because the temperature is hovering right around freezing...
-- Jeff Brady
9:17 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (1) | e-mail post
Mike Huckabee continues to do well in southern Republican primaries. He picked up his third state of the day, winning the Republican primary in Alabama. He won his home state of Arkansas and is doing well in Georgia. He also won the state caucuses in West Virginia.
9:09 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win her home state of New York.
Update: In response to reader questions about the Democratic primaries - None of the Democratic primaries are winner-take-all. As a result we won't be able to give final delegate counts for each candidate until later in the evening.
9:03 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (3) | e-mail post
NPR is projecting that Sen. Hillary Clinton will win a close victory over her rival Sen. Barack Obama in Massachusetts.
Clinton had been ahead by as much as 20 percent in some polls in early January, but Obama made up ground in the past two weeks.
8:59 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
NPR projects that Sen. John McCain will win the Republican primary in Delaware. With 16 percent of the polls reporting, McCain leads former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney 41 to 33 percent.
Delaware is a winner-take-all state, with 18 delegates at stake.
8:50 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
While only 10 percent of the polls have reported in Georgia, here is where the race stands: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has 37 percent; Sen. John McCain has 33 percent; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has captured 25 percent; and Ron Paul has 3 percent.
8:39 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (2) | e-mail post
NPR has projected Mitt Romney as the GOP winner in Massachusetts. This would have been a surprise if he lost, as he was the governor and all.
John McCain had spent the past few days in the Bay State, hoping he might pull off an embarrassing upset, but to no avail. He did better across the state line in Connecticut, winning the Nutmeg State's largely moderate Republican electorate.
He may have been helped there by the endorsement of Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent Democrat whose re-election last year was due in large part to his support from Republican voters.
8:36 PM ET | 02- 5-2008 | permalink | comments (0) | e-mail post
