Political Junkie with Ken Rudin

The Political Junkie graphic blog header.
 
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Ken Rudin's ScuttleButton 020612

Now that the Super Bowl is over, and pitchers and catchers are still days away from reporting, there's obviously only one thing left for you to do.

Solve this week's ScuttleButton puzzle.

Every Monday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show (by me) and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

L.B.J., Please Stay! — Some were upset when President Lyndon Johnson announced on March 31, 1968 that he would not seek re-election that year.

black and white hands holding up a dove — A Vietnam peace button, circa 1969.

D Huddleston U.S. Senate — Ah, yes, one of ScuttleButton's old standbys. Walter "Dee" Huddleston, a Kentucky Democrat, served two terms in the Senate until losing in 1984 to Mitch McConnell.

America Works Best When We Say Union Yes — Labor button put out by the IUE (International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers).

So, when you combine Stay + Dove + D + Union, you just very well may get ...

State of the Union. The President's annual address to Congress.

The winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Jack Davis of Columbus, Ohio. Jack gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Tags: Political Junkie, ScuttleButton

Mitt Romney's landslide win in Saturday's Nevada caucuses — which followed his big victory the previous Tuesday in Florida — has reestablished him as the odds-on favorite for the Republican presidential nomination.

A true swing state: Nevada voted GOP for president six times in a row between 1968 and 1988. But Clinton won it twice and Obama carried it last time.
Ken Rudin collection

A true swing state: Nevada voted GOP for president six times in a row between 1968 and 1988. But Clinton won it twice and Obama carried it last time.

Romney took 50 percent of the Nevada vote, a shade under what he got when he won the caucuses four years ago. Now, like then, he was buttressed by the solid support of Mormons, who count for more than a quarter of the GOP electorate in Nevada. Newt Gingrich was well behind with 21 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 19 percent — up from his 14 percent from 2008 — and Rick Santorum with 10 percent.

Romney still has a long way to go in trying to convince Tea Party folks and evangelical conservatives he is the right choice to take on President Obama in the general election. But by the looks of things, February is going to give him a gigantic boost towards that goal.

The campaign now moves to three other caucus states: Colorado and Minnesota, which hold their contests on Tuesday (Feb. 7), and Maine, where the caucuses started on Saturday and lasts a full week. Paul is making a serious effort in Maine, and some think he could finish on top. But Romney carried all three states in 2008, and he has to be the betting favorite to repeat. There's also a non-binding primary Tuesday in Missouri. This will have no bearing on the Show Me State's GOP delegates, which will be decided in a caucus next month. But with Gingrich not on the ballot there — he failed to meet the requirements — Santorum is campaigning there as if it's important, arguing he, and only he, is the conservative alternative to Romney. (Gingrich also failed to make the ballot in Virginia, which votes on March 6.)

But why not tout successes in these states, small as they are? The next couple of weeks is less about real delegates and more about headlines and perceived momentum. Since the botched reporting of the Iowa results robbed him of claiming victory and the news coverage that comes with it, Santorum has not been much of a factor anywhere else. Even with the endorsement of Sharron Angle, a Tea Party favorite and the 2010 GOP challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Santorum finished a poor fourth in Nevada. A strong showing even in beauty contest Missouri might give his campaign some temporary bragging rights.

The bad news for Gingrich, Paul and Santorum is that, if they are shut out from victory in this week's caucuses, there will not be a lot of opportunities to make news this month. Everything at stake on Tuesday, at least as of now, look to be heading Romney's way.

The calendar only gets worse. February may be the shortest month but, for Romney's opponents, it might feel the longest. After this week, there will no primaries for another 21 days, and they too may be Romney states. On Feb. 28, both Arizona, which has a significant number of Mormons, and Michigan, where Romney was born and where his father served as governor in the 1960s, are holding primaries. Romney is the clear favorite to repeat his 2008 victory in the Michigan primary, and he leads in Arizona. And there is no debate until Feb. 22.

And speaking of endorsements, did the Romney camp really boast the backing he got from Donald Trump, or was that just something the DNC made up? I know the purpose of announcing endorsements is to show momentum and expanding support, but I've always felt they are overrated; I always point to Al Gore and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin endorsing Howard Dean right before the 2004 Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and Dean, once the frontrunner there, finished a weak third. This year, Romney had Gov. Nikki Haley in his corner in South Carolina and he got creamed. Gingrich had the New Hampshire Union Leader and he finished a weak fourth.

But the recent slew of announced endorsements struck me as odd, if not surreal. And it's not just Trump and Romney (and the egg on the face of the Gingrich campaign, which expected the backing of The Donald). There's more, and I'm not sure I understand it. Herman Cain, forced out of the presidential race for his alleged harassment of women, backing Gingrich, he of the two divorces and "open marriage" fame? What was that about? Or the endorsement Gingrich got from ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.), who is still in prison for accepting bribes? Can't make this stuff up.

2008 was a big year for N.C. Democrats.  This year will be much tougher.
Ken Rudin collection

2008 was a big year for N.C. Democrats. This year will be much tougher.

Evacuation in North Carolina. Four years ago, Democrats had great success in North Carolina. Buoyed by a huge African-American turnout, Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 — and only the second since LBJ — to carry the state. Kay Hagan ousted GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue took the governorship, the first woman of her state to do so. Democrats maintained their hold on the state legislature.

As it turned out, 2008 was a lifetime ago.

Perdue proved to be quite unpopular, and Republicans took advantage; two years ago, they won both houses of the state legislature for the first time since 1870. With fundraising as weak as her poll numbers, and ethics questions being asked regarding her campaign finances — some of her staffers from the 2008 campaign have been indicted — Perdue announced on Jan. 26 she wouldn't seek re-election. She cited the lack of bipartisanship and the state's "divisive environment."

Her decision was followed by a few days later with the news that Rep. Heath Shuler (D), a Blue Dog favorite from the western part of the state who challenged Nancy Pelosi for Democratic leader last year, announced that unfavorable redistricting — the liberal bastion of Asheville was carved out of his seat — forced him to retire as well. He said he would not enter the race for governor either, a sentiment shared by Erskine Bowles. Bowles, who was President Clinton's chief of staff and co-chair of President Obama's Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, seemed to be every Democrat's favorite to succeed Perdue. The truth is, Bowles is not the world's greatest campaigner, and would have come into the race as having lost two Senate contests (2002 vs. Dole and 2004 vs. Richard Burr). But he announced on Thursday he won't run.

That leaves, for now, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison in the Democratic contest to take on Pat McCrory, the former mayor of Charlotte and the GOP nominee against Perdue four years ago. But that list may not be complete. Rep. Brad Miller, another Democratic victim of redistricting who decided not to run again rather than face fellow Dem David Price in the primary, is a potential gubernatorial candidate, and Bob Etheridge, who lost his House seat in 2010, has entered the race. Miller could prove to be a strong contender should he run.

Democrats insist they are better off without Perdue in the race. That may be true or it may be spin; the political terrain there looks much less favorable for the party than it did four years ago. But it's probably accurate to say that Perdue on the ballot would not have been welcome news for the Obama team in their (currently uphill) quest to carry the state a second time. The Democrats will meet in Charlotte late this summer to renominate the president.

Democrats Retain Oregon 01. In the Jan. 31 special election, former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici (D) won the vacant House seat in Oregon's 1st Congressional District with a convincing win over Republican Rob Cornilles. This was for the seat formerly held by David Wu, a Democrat who was always on the watch list because of his various eccentricities but whose situation became untenable when he was accused of sexual assault; he resigned in August.

The seat has long been held by the Democrats; the last GOP victory came in 1972, and Obama carried the district four years ago by 25 points. But mindful of what happened to the seat of another Democrat (Anthony Weiner) in a solidly Democratic area who resigned because of a sex scandal — Republicans shockingly won the special election in that one — Democrats poured in a ton of money on behalf of Bonamici, effectively labeling Cornilles as a Tea Party extremist. Bonamici won, 54-39%.

That leaves just one unfilled House seat, the one vacated last month by Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.). The special primary to succeed Giffords will be held April 17 and the general is June 12.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin.

I love the Giants
Ken Rudin collection

Super Bowl results. Just in case you missed last night's game, I thought I would offer up this button. Oh my, what a wonderful game, and what a tense ending. And that Manningham catch. Wow.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. Last week's show focused on the caucuses in Maine and Nevada, with respective special guests Jay Field of Maine Public Broadcasting and Steve Sebelius from the Las Vegas Review-Journal. There was also an interview with Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire about same sex marriage in the state. The surprise highlight was Roger McGuinn, formerly the lead singer of The Byrds, singing "I Wanna Grow Up To Be A Politician" especially for the fans of the Junkie segment. You can listen to all of that right here:

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Last week's Junkie segment on TOTN

Also: a belated thank you to the folks at member station WMFE in Orlando, Fla., where we broadcast the Jan. 25 Junkie edition in advance of the Florida primary. And you can hear that show here:

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Jan. 25 Junkie from Orlando

(Later that evening, Neal and I performed the Political Junkie "roadshow" at the Plaza Theatre in Orlando before a live audience.)

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every Monday. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt!

Previous winner: Gary McAtee of Chickasha, Okla.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. You can listen to the latest episode here:

This feature requires version 9 or higher of the Adobe Flash Player.Get the latest Flash Player.

Last week's podcast

ON THE CALENDAR:

Feb. 4-11 — Maine caucus.

Feb. 7 — Caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota. Also: Missouri primary (beauty contest only).

Feb. 22 — GOP debate, Mesa, Ariz. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

Feb. 28 — Primaries in Arizona and Michigan.

March 1 — GOP debate, Atlanta, Ga. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

March 3 — Washington caucus.

March 5 — GOP debate, Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. (NBC).

March 6 — SUPER TUESDAY. Primaries in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. Caucuses in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

Scoop Jackson '76
Ken Rudin collection

This day in campaign history: Washington Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson declares his candidacy for the 1976 Democratic presidential nomination. A defense hawk and a social liberal popular with organized labor, Jackson also sought the nomination in 1972. But he enters the '76 contest in a much better position, with more money on hand than any other prospective Democrat other than George Wallace. Jackson is the fourth Democrat to officially announce, following Rep. Mo Udall (Ariz.), former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and ex-Sen. Fred Harris (Okla.) (Feb. 6, 1975).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

Tags: 2012 North Carolina governor race, Bev Perdue, Scoop Jackson, David Wu, Suzanne Bonamici, Missouri primary, Maine caucus, Minnesota caucus, Colorado caucus, Nevada caucus, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Political Junkie, Ron Paul

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Ken Rudin's ScuttleButton 013012

I've been on the road for much of the last two weeks — a visit to Oklahoma on behalf of NPR's StateImpact project, a visit to member station KPCC in Pasadena, Calif., and then a trip to Orlando and member station WMFE, where we broadcast the Talk of the Nation Junkie segment in advance of the Florida primary and performed a Political Junkie "roadshow" before a live audience of some 800 fellow junkies later that evening.

In that time, regrettably, there was no time to write the Political Junkie column, which returns next week. But now that I'm back to sanity — assuming that is an accurate way to describe Washington, D.C. — there IS time for a new ScuttleButton puzzle.

It's been awhile, and hopefully you haven't forgotten how to play. Every Monday on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to the most recent puzzle:

Column E/Save Hudson County — From a local New Jersey ballot initiative, probably circa 1970s.

Retain Lyman Probate Court Clerk — This button of late 1930s vintage refers to Frank Lyman of Chicago.

green button with the letters ING — This clever button is from Alaska Sen. Ernest Gruening (pronounced GREEN-ing), who was defeated in the 1968 Democratic primary by Mike Gravel.

So, when you combine E + Lyman + Ing, you just very well may get ...

Eli Manning. The quarterback of the New York Giants who is taking his team to the Super Bowl following upsets of the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs.

Did I ever tell you I love the Giants?

But enough about me. The ScuttleButton winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Gary McAtee of Chickasha, Okla. Gary gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Tags: Political Junkie, ScuttleButton

scuttlebutton
Ken Rudin's ScuttleButton 011812

Iowa claimed Michele Bachmann. New Hampshire claimed Jon Huntsman.

Eventually, the number of Republican candidates are going to dwindle down to one. And rather than wait for that to happen, this might be a good time to try your luck by solving this week's ScuttleButton puzzle.

Here's how to play. Every week on this site I put up a vertical display of buttons. Your job is to simply take one word (or concept) per button, add 'em up, and, hopefully, you will arrive at a famous name or a familiar expression. (And seriously, by familiar, I mean it's something that more than one person on Earth would recognize.)

For years, a correct answer chosen at random would get his or her name posted in this column, an incredible honor in itself. Now the stakes are even higher. Thanks to the efforts of the folks at Talk of the Nation, that person also hears their name mentioned on the Wednesday show and receives a Political Junkie t-shirt in the bargain. Is this a great country or what?

You can't use the comments box at the bottom of the page for your answer. Send submission (plus your name and city/state — you won't win without that) to politicaljunkie@npr.org.

And, by adding your name to the Political Junkie mailing list, you will be among the first on your block to receive notice about the column and the puzzle. Sign up at politicaljunkie@npr.org. Or you can make sure to get an automatic RSS feed whenever a new Junkie post goes up by clicking here.

Good luck!

By the way, I announce the winner on Wednesday's Junkie segment on TOTN. But with a new puzzle up every Monday afternoon, you should get your answer in by Monday the latest.

Here's the answer to last week's puzzle:

Elect a Neu Lt. Governor — Arthur Neu, an Iowa Republican, was first elected in the mid 1970s.

Ham's My Man — Hamilton Fish was elected to an upstate congressional seat in 1968. The New York Republican later served on the House Judiciary Committee during the Nixon impeachment hearings.

Rocky S.U.R.E. — One thing I AM sure about is that this button is from one of the campaigns of New York GOP Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, who was elected four times between 1958 and 1970.

New York's Prime Candidate/Bob Wagner — Wagner, a former mayor of NYC, attempted a comeback in 1969 but lost the Democratic primary to City Comptroller Mario Procaccino.

Mary Mochary U.S. Senate — She was the Republican nominee against Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.) in 1984.

So, when you combine Neu + Ham + S.U.R.E. + Prime + Mary, you just very well may get ...

New Hampshire Primary. And let the record show that the last three presidents — Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — all lost the primary en route to winning the White House.

But enough about losing. The ScuttleButton winner, chosen completely at random, is ... Annette Hernandez of San Francisco, Calif. Annette gets a TOTN t-shirt.

Tags: Political Junkie, ScuttleButton

The battle for the Republican presidential nomination may or may not be decided by the end of this month. The battle for control of the Senate, on the other hand, is likely to go on all the way until the final votes are cast in November.

The most vulnerable Senate Republican.
Ken Rudin collection

The most vulnerable Senate Republican.

The numbers suggest a good year for the GOP. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 are currently held by Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Only ten are held by Republicans. With Democrats currently holding a 53-47 advantage, the GOP would need four seats to take control — or three, if they win the White House (and the VP would break a 50-50 tie).

Further hurting the Democratic cause is the number of retirements they have this year. Seven, including independent Joe Lieberman, are not seeking re-election, compared to just two on the Republican side.

The most vulnerable Senate Democrat.
Ken Rudin collection

The most vulnerable Senate Democrat.

But there are invariables that cloud the forecasting game this early in the cycle, such as the ever-changing presidential race, not to mention upcoming filing deadlines and primary contests.

In the months ahead, I'll be focusing on each key Senate race in depth. But for now, here is a first look at where the contests stand.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC (9): California (Dianne Feinstein), Delaware (Tom Carper), Maryland (Ben Cardin), Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar), New Jersey (Bob Menendez), New York (Kirsten Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse), Vermont (Bernie Sanders (I)), West Virginia (Joe Manchin).

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (5): Connecticut (open seat — Joe Lieberman (I) retiring), Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), Washington (Maria Cantwell).

TOSSUP DEM SEATS (7): Florida (Bill Nelson), Hawaii (open seat — Daniel Akaka retiring), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), New Mexico (open seat — Jeff Bingaman retiring), Virginia (open seat — Jim Webb retiring), Wisconsin (open seat — Herb Kohl retiring).

EXPECTED DEM LOSSES/GOP PICKUPS (2): Nebraska (open seat — Ben Nelson retiring), North Dakota (open seat — Kent Conrad retiring).

EXPECTED GOP LOSSES/DEM PICKUPS (O): None at the moment.

TOSSUP GOP SEATS (1): Massachusetts (Scott Brown).

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (4): Arizona (open seat — Jon Kyl retiring), Indiana (Dick Lugar), Maine (Olympia Snowe), Nevada (Dean Heller) .

SAFE REPUBLICAN (5): Mississippi (Roger Wicker), Tennessee (Bob Corker), Texas (open seat — Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring), Utah (Orrin Hatch), Wyoming (John Barrasso).

I came, I saw, I Concord. It was great being part of live coverage all primary night from New Hampshire Public Radio. Hosted from 7-10 by the legendary Laura Knoy and then for a one hour recap at 11 by Brady Carlson, the special broadcast featured super guests and top notch analysis. Thanks to everyone for their wonderful comments. And thanks to NHPR for a job well done.

Huntsman out. There was a less-than-convincing ring to Jon Huntsman's declaration the night of New Hampshire that the third-place primary finish gave him a "ticket to ride." As it turns out, it was more of a "I don't want to spoil the party so I'll go." On Saturday, he ended his campaign and endorsed Romney.

Huntsman button
Ken Rudin collection

There is never a shortage of spin in these things, and New Hampshire is well known for it. The best case for claiming a win coming out of a Granite State defeat was Bill Clinton's self-described "comeback kid" label in 1992. But Huntsman's hope that finishing third, with 16.7% of the vote, was a huge success after he put all his marbles in the state rang hollow.

The move reduces the GOP field but not the way evangelical leaders wanted. While there is some desire to rally 'round Rick Santorum, that sentiment is by no means unanimous among the "Anybody but Mitt" folks, and Newt Gingrich's Monday night debate performance further gave pause that this has become a two-man race. And don't forget Ron Paul, who may have taken a hammering in the Myrtle Beach debate but who will still be very much part of the mix following South Carolina and Florida.

Shakeup in the California House delegation. Last week we reported on the decision of Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.), in Congress since 1987, to retire, a victim of a new redistricting map. Since then, two more Golden State Republicans have thrown in the towel. Rep. Wally Herger, also in Congress 25 years, said he would leave as well. And now Rep. Jerry Lewis, first elected in 1978, is also calling it quits. His district was carved up into two districts. One of them, the new 31st CD, is where Rep. Gary Miller (R) earlier said he would run rather than face off against Rep. Ed Royce (R) in a GOP primary. Still watching on another veteran Republican, Rep. David Dreier, to see what he plans to do. Three California Democrats are also leaving: Dennis Cardoza and Lynn Woolsey are retiring, and Bob Filner is running for mayor of San Diego.

Janklow is dead. Former Gov. Bill Janklow, one of the most powerful and influential pols in South Dakota history, died Thursday, Jan. 12. His was, by all accounts, a larger-than-life figure, a Republican whom you loved or hated. Charming and intimidating. But everyone agreed he was one of a kind.

Janklow button
Ken Rudin collection

He was elected state attorney general in 1974, and four years later was elected governor — the first of four terms. In 1986, term-limited as governor and with no obvious options, he took on fellow Republican Sen. Jim Abdnor in the primary, but lost by ten points. George Mickelson, the Republican who succeeded him as governor, died in a plane crash in 1993.. Janklow challenged his successor, Walter Miller, and beat him convincingly in the 1994 GOP primary and served two more terms.

As governor, he boosted the state economy by luring businesses to South Dakota and helped make major advances in schools and transportation. The voters rewarded him with landslide victories each time he ran.

Once again constitutionally barred from serving as governor again, he ran for the state's lone House seat in 2002, the seat vacated by John Thune. In that contest, he clobbered former Sen. Larry Pressler by nearly 28 points in the GOP primary and defeated the Democratic candidate, Stephanie Herseth, in the general election. But his House tenure would prove to be brief. In 2003, Janklow, known for driving well beyond the speed limit, ran a stop sign and killed a motorcyclist. After his conviction, he resigned his seat.

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Meanwhile, time for one question from the mailbag:

Q: What do you think the chances are of a brokered convention for the Republicans? Mitt Romney is the leading candidate but he's coming nowhere close to winning a majority of the votes, let alone the hearts, of conservatives. Could another candidate get in the race at this date? — Andrea Johnston, Charleston, S.C.

A: The short answer is between none and none. "Brokered conventions" — in which no presidential candidate has a commanding lead going into the summer national party conventions and delegate bargaining is what produces the nominee — hasn't happened in any convention in more than a half century (Democrats 1952, Republicans 1948). No Republican contest has even reached a convention with any doubt since 1976, when Ronald Reagan challenged President Gerald Ford. And while ostensibly the GOP rules have changed this year to allow more proportional awarding of delegates in the primaries (as opposed to previous years' "winner-take-all"), it's hard to see Romney having as many opponents after the South Carolina (Jan. 21) and Florida (Jan. 31) primaries as he has now. That doesn't necessarily mean conservatives will suddenly fall in love with him. But unless they can win somewhere, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are going to run out of money and arguments. Even the "super PACs" will come to realize that.

As far as another candidate getting in, I hate saying it's impossible. Let's just leave it as highly unlikeable. Who would be this dream candidate? Jeb Bush remains the strongest "if only" candidate, but he's not running. And while Sarah Palin likes to appear every now and then so we won't forget her, she's not going to run either.

Once upon a time, it was doable. Bobby Kennedy didn't get into the race until after the New Hampshire primary, in 1968. But that's when the process was totally different than it is today.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions, and sparkling jokes. I was at the studios of New Hampshire Public Radio in Concord last week, where Junkie was broken into two parts. The first segment focused on the results in New Hampshire and what's next as the candidates head into South Carolina, and it included special guest Bob Inglis, the former Republican congressman from S.C. You can listen to it right here:

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Wednesday's Junkie segment -- Part 1

The second segment featured New York Times columnist Bill Keller and focused on his recent piece suggesting that President Obama would be better off if he had Hillary Clinton — not Joe Biden — as his running mate in 2012. That segment, and my response that the idea is nothing if not preposterous, can be heard here:

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Last week's Junkie segment, part 2

Come see the Political Junkie/TOTN road show! We're bringing the program to Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 25. Later that evening, a special 90-minute presentation before a live audience. And it's free! Click here for details.

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can be found in this spot every Monday. A randomly-selected winner will be announced each week during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. It's not too late to enter last week's contest, which you can see here. Not only is there incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets a TOTN t-shirt!

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner-in-crime, Ron Elving, and me. You can listen to the latest episode here:

This feature requires version 9 or higher of the Adobe Flash Player.Get the latest Flash Player.

Last week's podcast

ON THE CALENDAR:

Jan. 19 — GOP debate, Charleston, S.C. (CNN, 8 pm ET).

Jan. 21 — SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY.

Jan. 23 — GOP debate, Tampa, Fla. (NBC).

Jan. 24 — President Obama's State of the Union address to Congress.

Jan. 25 — Talk of the Nation/Political Junkie from Orlando, Fla.

Jan. 26 — GOP debate, Jacksonville, Fla. (CNN).

Jan. 31 — FLORIDA PRIMARY.

Jan. 31 — Special congressional election in Oregon's 1st CD to succeed former Rep. David Wu (D), who resigned amid a sex scandal. Candidates: Suzanne Bonamici (D) and Rob Cornilles (R).

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

Mondale button
Ken Rudin collection

This day in campaign history: Minnesota Sen. Walter Mondale becomes the first Democrat to announce the creation of an exploratory committee regarding a possible bid for the 1976 presidential nomination. His goal is to raise enough money to allow him to travel around the country and meet with potential supporters (Jan. 17, 1974).

Got a question? Ask Ken Rudin: politicaljunkie@npr.org

Tags: 2012 Senate races, Bill Janklow, Jon Huntsman, Battle for the Senate

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What Is 'Political Junkie'?

It's a weekly column by NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin. Published on Mondays, Political Junkie is a look ahead to the events and themes that will be playing out across America's political landscape. It's also the home of ScuttleButton, a weekly puzzle built out of buttons from Ken's own legendary collection.

'Political Junkie' Column Archive

Before it was a blog, Political Junkie was a weekly column. You can read archived columns here.

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You can submit questions and comments to the Political Junkie through the contact form.

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It's All Politics

NPR PodcastsNPR political analysts Ken Rudin and Ron Elving delve into the week's political news and analysis in a weekly podcast.

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