Gregg-To-Commerce Complicates Senate Calculation

What was initially perceived as unfathomable is now likely to happen, as soon as this week.

By all accounts, President Obama is apparently on the cusp of nominating Sen. Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, as secretary of commerce. With the Granite State looking more and more blue as of late — in 2006 both GOP representatives were defeated and in 2008 Sen. John E. Sununu (R) lost his re-election bid — perhaps Gregg, 61, was reading the political tea leaves. Or, maybe, his real desire is to become president one day, and he wants to emulate Herbert Hoover, who went from commerce secretary to the White House. (A lot of politicians yearn to emulate Herbert Hoover these days.) Whatever the reason, there would be consequences to such a move.

The question many Republicans ask is, is he willing to give the Democrats the potentially pivotal 60th vote (assuming that, one day, Al Franken is declared the winner in Minnesota, and assuming that all 60 Democrats would vote as a bloc)? Not necessarily. Gregg no doubt has been warned by his Republican colleagues to consider those consequences. Word is that Gregg would accept the post only if New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, does not name a Democrat to fill the final two years of his term. A curious arrangement, but — given the last batch of Senate appointments — nothing is surprising anymore.

There's virtually no way Lynch, who has already ruled out his own Senate candidacy, would name a partisan Republican to fill the seat, such as Sununu or former Sen. Warren Rudman. But there's no way Gregg would agree to a deal that saw Lynch appoint, say, Rep. Paul Hodes (D) to the seat. The name most bandied about is Bonnie Newman, Gregg's former chief of staff, who headed up "Republicans for Lynch" in 2004. She would presumably be a caretaker appointment, not planning to run in 2010.

Another potential appointment, writes the New Hampshire Union Leader, is former GOP state House Speaker Doug Scamman, another Lynch ally.

Obama had originally named New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) for commerce, but he withdrew his name in the wake of a federal corruption investigation of his administration.

Sununu could re-emerge and seek a comeback next year. His father, John H. Sununu — the former governor and Bush 41 chief of staff — was just elected chairman of the state Republican Party. The Boston Globe's James Pindell today writes about what's on the senior Sununu's plate:

New Hampshire had long been a libertarian-minded, conservative Republican state. From 1856 to 1994, Republicans won 63 of 71 races for governor. The same domination held basically true for the state's congressional delegation and state house.

Recently it has been a different story. The state voted for a Democratic governor in six of the last seven races and for a Democratic president four out of the last five elections. In 2006, Democrats had their most successful election year since the 1870s, unseating two Republican members of Congress, winning the governorship by a record margin, and grabbing majorities in both state house chambers.

If the younger Sununu did return to the Senate, he would join Jeanne Shaheen (D), who defeated him last year. It would be the fourth pairing of senators currently serving from the same state who had once run against each other; actually, Sununu and Shaheen squared off against each other twice, with the first contest in 2002 going to the Republican.

Nevada: Harry Reid (D) and John Ensign (R) — Reid beat Ensign in 1998.
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) and John Thune (R) — Johnson beat Thune in 2002.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) and John Barrasso (R) — Enzi beat Barrasso in the 1996 GOP primary.