Senate Race Updates: New Life For Norm Coleman in Minnesota?

Some updates on key Senate races:

FLORIDA

The story thus far in the race to succeed retiring Republican Mel Martinez is mostly about those who aren't running. On the GOP side, last month's decision by former Gov. Jeb Bush to take his name out of the mix was not really a surprise, even though his brother (Mr. 43) and father (Mr. 41) were already talking about him being in the Senate as a fait accompli. Despite Jeb's popularity, Bush Fatigue is real. And there was never any indication that he really wanted to serve in the Senate.

Last week, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, who twice sought a Senate seat — he lost the 2000 general election to Democrat Bill Nelson and the 2004 GOP primary to Martinez — said he wouldn't run. Unlike the Bush decision, McCollum's was a surprise, as was the one by Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer. Sink was the first Democratic name to be mentioned when Martinez announced his retirement in December, but she says she will forgo the Senate race to seek re-election to her current post. Another potential candidate, Rep. Allen Boyd (D), from the Panhandle, also considered the race but ultimately said no.

There's no shortage of Democrats interested in the seat. Rep. Kendrick Meek, from Miami, is already in, as is state Sen. Dan Gelber from Miami Beach. Rep. Ron Klein, an excellent fundraiser who hails from Palm Beach, is also interested.

Jeb Bush had frozen the GOP field while he was considering the race. Now it's Charlie Crist's turn. The popular governor said he would sit down with his new wife and discuss it after the legislative session, which ends in May. Crist, like Bush, could probably have the nomination if he wants it. Many, however, expect him to seek re-election next year. Way back in 1998, Crist was the GOP Senate nominee against Democratic incumbent Bob Graham and got clobbered by nearly a million votes. But that was a long time ago.

And if Crist doesn't run? There are two former state House speakers, Marco Rubio and Allan Bense, who are ready to roll. Add two members of Congress as well: Connie Mack IV, whose father was a two-term senator, and Vern Buchanan. Both are from southwest Florida.

The latest news has former Sen. Bob Smith (R) thinking about running. That's former Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire. Smith, who moved to the Sunshine State to sell real estate since losing his seat to Sununu in the 2002 primary, has sent out an e-mail trying to gauge his support.

MINNESOTA

For those of you with long, long memories, you might remember that back in 2008, in November I think, Minnesota voters went to the polls to decide if Sen. Norm Coleman (R) should get a second term. It's 93 days later and we still don't have an answer. But we do know some stuff.

NOTE: The following information was updated Thursday afternoon with guidance from Rachel Stassen-Berger, political reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, who — as her reporting shows — understands this story better than anyone else on the planet.

After a hand recount of 2.9 million voters, Al Franken, the Democratic challenger, has a lead of 225 votes. For the longest time, the assumption (here at least) was that it's just a matter of time before Franken is sworn in. But not so fast. On Tuesday, a panel of three district judges appointed by the state Supreme Court agreed to let Coleman bring evidence regarding no more than 4,797 absentee ballots that the Republican argues were improperly rejected. Coleman, in fact, actually wanted the judges to review about 11,000 votes. The Franken camp originally had its own list of 771 rejected ballots; they have since asked for permission to expand that list to some as of yet unknown number.

But there are a lot of "buts" here. Just because they are being looked at does not necessarily mean Coleman will prevail. In fact, there's no telling how many of the ballots the judicial panel will agree to review or how many will be reinstated, and it's quite possible that Franken could get a healthy portion of them. There's also the question of how Coleman will physically get those actual ballots to present them as evidence to the judges.

I think it's also fair to assume that if after this process Coleman moves into the lead, Franken will come up with his own list of ballots he wants reviewed.

We may not know who won the election until March. At the earliest. Sorry, Rachel.

MISSOURI

Democrats got exactly the candidate they want to fill the seat being vacated by four-term Republican Kit Bond. It's Robin Carnahan, the secretary of state, daughter of the late Gov. Mel and former Sen. Jean (and sister of Rep. Russ) Carnahan. The GOP field may include Rep. Roy Blunt, the former House majority whip; ex-Sen. Jim Talent, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, the 2008 GOP gubernatorial nominee. Hulshof and Steelman faced each other in last year's gubernatorial primary. Blunt appears at this stage to be the establishment choice.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Commerce Secretary-designate Judd Gregg (R) has yet to depart from the Senate, and so of course Bonnie Newman has yet to be sworn in as his successor. But one candidate for the seat is already in the race: Rep. Paul Hodes (D). The Democratic field is not necessarily set; the state's other U.S. representative, Carol Shea-Porter, might also run. But the Republican field is far less focused. Newman, of course, has said she won't run. Most attention is on former Sen. John Sununu, who lost his seat to Jeanne Shaheen last year. Also under consideration: ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

In addition to Gregg and the aforementioned Martinez and Bond, two other Republican incumbents are bowing out of a 2010 re-election contest: Sam Brownback of Kansas and George Voinovich of Ohio.

And speaking of Ohio, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leading former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a hypothetical Senate matchup, 42-27 percent. Other potential candidates: Rep. Tim Ryan (D), Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) and state Auditor Mary Taylor (R).