One of the problems that led Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) to withdraw from consideration as President Obama's commerce secretary was a perceived tug of war that was going on over who -- the Commerce Department or the White House -- would have control over the 2010 census, which will determine the next round of redrawing congressional districts.

The politicization of the census is not a new thing. A lot is at stake. Republicans have long been accused of favoring an undercount, which would presumably help their cause; Democrats are thought to benefit from an overcount. Neither party is altruistic in its approach. And both sides are suspicious of the other.

But if we can take politics out of the equation for a second (wait, did I really say that?), here's a less loaded question from Christopher Stearns of Olympia, Wash.:

What do you foresee as the potential for the decennial redistricting to produce by 2012 elections in the makeup of the House?

One thing we pretty much know now is what the population is going to look like on April 1, 2010, the date when those numbers will be used to apportion the House. What we don't know is what will happen in the 2010 gubernatorial and legislative elections, and that's where the politics comes in. But here's an early guess -- and it's no more than that -- of which states will gain/lose in the next round of redistricting and the number of seats we are talking about:

GAIN

Texas (+4) -- currently has 32
Arizona (+2) -- currently has 8
Florida (+1) -- currently has 25
Georgia (+1) -- currently has 13
Nevada (+1) -- currently has 3
Oregon (+1) -- currently has 5
South Carolina (+1) -- currently has 6
Utah (+1) -- currently has 3; irrespective of whether the state is part of a "deal" by which D.C. gets a voting member of the House

LOSS

Ohio (-2) -- currently has 18; one possibility is the elimination of Tim Ryan's (D) seat if he leaves to run for higher office
Illinois (-1) -- currently has 19
Iowa (-1) -- currently has 5
Louisiana (-1) -- currently has 7
Massachusetts (-1) -- currently has 10
Michigan (-1) -- currently has 15
Minnesota (-1) -- currently has 8
Missouri (-1) -- currently has 9
New Jersey (-1) -- currently has 13
New York (-1) -- currently has 29; if the Republicans win the open Kirsten Gillibrand seat in the March 31 special election, you can bet this will be the seat the Democratic state Legislature decides to eliminate
Pennsylvania (-1) -- currently has 19

categories: Questions From The Reader

8:11 - February 26, 2009

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