Will Specter Survive A 2010 Primary? Will Gillibrand? Vitter? (Forget Burris)

Last week we speculated on the troubles Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is having with his fellow Republicans. But Bunning may not be the only senator who is in hot water with his own party in 2010:

Roland Burris. Nothing is certain in politics, but this is as close as it gets: Burris, the embattled Illinois Democrat, is not going to survive a primary should he decide to run for a full term next year. He may very well resist the calls by some in his party, including Gov. Pat Quinn, and the suggestions of others, such as Sen. Dick Durbin, that he resign. But for an assortment of reasons long spelled out here (and here for that matter), his political situation is quite precarious.

 

First out of the box among the list of prospective challengers is state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who launched an exploratory committee earlier this month. Giannoulias is thought to be the choice of Durbin, with whom he traveled overseas during the latest congressional break, though the senior senator would only go as far as to call him a "formidable" candidate. Ambitious and wealthy, he has received good grades for his performance as treasurer and is considered a top fundraiser. But there have been ethics questions surrounding Giannoulias — mostly regarding some of his associates and his family's bank, which made several loans to, among others, Tony Rezko, since convicted on fraud and bribery charges. Back in 2007, Charles Hurt of the New York Post wrote that Giannoulias "is so tainted by reputed mob links that several top Illinois Dems ... refused to endorse him [in 2006 when he was running for treasurer] even after he won the Democratic nomination with Obama's help." True or not, that charge has made the rounds in Dem circles, and some worry that Giannoulias could prove to be another Illinois embarrassment.

Other Democrats in the mix include William Daley, brother of the mayor of Chicago and the secretary of commerce during the Clinton administration, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who represents Chicago's North Side and some suburbs. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., once thought of as a certain candidate, has seen his star fall precipitously. His name was alleged to have come up in conversations that the government recorded on the phone of then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who was impeached and removed from office over charges that he tried to sell the Senate seat to the highest bidder. Part of the federal case against Blagojevich suggests that Jackson, in hoping to get appointed to the seat vacated by Barack Obama, offered to raise money for the governor. Jackson says that he never authorized any such arrangement. But he is seen by many as damaged goods insofar as a Senate candidacy goes.

There is no guarantee that Burris is even going to run next year and, in fact, he has yet to announce his plans. But at this point I see no way that he can survive, either in the primary or (most definitely) in the general election.

Arlen Specter. The Pennsylvania senator is probably the most endangered Republican for 2010, next to Bunning. He was one of only three in his party to vote for the Obama stimulus program, a vote that led new RNC Chairman Michael Steele to suggest he could back a primary challenger to Specter (as well as to fellow GOP Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both of Maine, though neither is up in 2010) because of his vote.

(Sorry for this personal interruption here, but suggesting he could back an opponent to Specter, Snowe and Collins is, to me, far more controversial and incendiary than anything he said or retracted about radio commentator Rush Limbaugh, which got far more attention. But what do I know?)

Specter's vote on the stimulus bill, as well as hints he might back cloture on the Employee Free Choice Act, is what has put the five-term senator on the conservative hit list. How he votes on EFCA, a controversial hot-button measure about workers and unions that is supported by labor and many Democrats, and opposed by business and most Republicans, could affect his chances in next year's GOP primary, but I suspect that the likelihood of him being challenged by the right is already a done deal.

Tops on the list is former Rep. Pat Toomey, a conservative who came within 2 percentage points — just 17,000 votes out of over a million cast — of ousting Specter in the 2004 primary. What Specter had going for him six years ago was the backing of both President Bush and Sen. Rick Santorum, a conservative favorite. Neither Bush nor Santorum is in office any longer, Santorum having been ousted in 2006 in a landslide. Toomey, who became president of Club for Growth after he left Congress, had earlier been toying with running for governor next year, but now it seems more likely that a rematch against Specter is in the cards.

The argument that Specter used in 2004 with conservatives is that he was the only Republican who could hold the seat. I'm not sure that argument resonates with the right anymore.

One conservative who considered challenging Specter, Glen Meakem of Pittsburgh, has backed off, seemingly ready to endorse Toomey should he run.

Another possible candidate is anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik, a former two-time gubernatorial hopeful, who could decide to run either on the GOP line or as an independent.

Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand's record on guns — she was a favorite of the National Rifle Association — helped her win twice as a member of the House in her rural upstate New York, mostly Republican, district. But now that she has been appointed to the Senate to succeed now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, her voting record is coming under greater scrutiny. Even before Gillibrand was named to the seat, back in January, a fellow Democrat — Rep. Carolyn McCarthy of Long Island, whose husband was murdered by a deranged gunman — was so livid at the possibility that she said she would challenge her in the primary. Three other House members who had hoped to get the appointment, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler (both of Manhattan) and Steve Israel of Long Island, are potential challengers as well.

Gillibrand has shown indications that she might "evolve" from some of her previous conservative positions on guns, immigration and gay marriage, and so there is no certainty she will be hit with an intraparty challenge. (And, in fairness, she is not a "conservative"; for example, she is a strong supporter of abortion rights and opposes the war in Iraq. But her views on guns are what got the most attention.)

In any event, the possibility of a primary challenge is real. Scott Stringer, the Manhattan borough president, is the latest to join the group, saying last week he is considering a challenge.

(Full disclosure: Many, many years ago, when Stringer, who is now 48, was a teenager, he and I traded campaign buttons, though I haven't seen him since.)

David Vitter. Vitter is the Louisiana Republican who made national headlines when he was linked to the D.C. Madam prostitution ring in 2007 — his phone number appeared on her list of clients. But, as his state's first GOP senator since Reconstruction, Vitter has worked hard to repair the damage. Former Rep. John Cooksey (R), mentioned as a potential primary opponent, says he won't run. And while the media (including us) had fun with the news that porn star Stormy Daniels was planning to challenge Vitter — "Politics can't be any dirtier of a job than the one I am already in" is her best quote — a more important worry may be the plans of former state Rep. Tony Perkins, who ran for the Senate in 2002 and who heads up the Family Research Council. Perkins has not announced his plans for next year, but he could decide to challenge Vitter.

Lisa Murkowski. I have no idea where the idea of Gov. Sarah Palin challenging Murkowski came from — Palin has never suggested it, at least not publicly — and I'm not convinced it's even going to happen. But it's the favorite buzz of Alaska political junkies. Palin, of course, came to national prominence when she knocked off Lisa's father, then-Gov. Frank Murkowski, in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary. And of course there is no shortage of speculation that Palin, the party's vice presidential nominee last year, may be looking at the White House for 2012. But running against Lisa Murkowski? I don't think so.