California Democrats Giveth & Taketh In 2010 Gov Race

Lt. Gov. Garamendi ends gubernatorial campaign to seek Tauscher House seat.

Sorry about the lisp in the header.

The race for governor of California next year, when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger steps down because of term limits, will be certainly one of the more high-profile contests of 2010. By definition, any California gubernatorial race is nationally significant, but this one -- with no incumbent in the race -- has drawn a virtual who's who of Democratic pols into the race.

The "giveth" of last week was the official declaration of candidacy by San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. At 41 years of age and in his second term, Newsom is the youngest hopeful in the field and has been using modern-day tools -- Facebook, Twitter, YouTube -- to spread the word. His 2004 decision to direct city agencies to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples -- then in violation of state law, and since stopped by the courts -- won him acclaim with liberal groups, but one wonders how it will play in a general election. Remember Proposition 8?

Another line on his resume could also prove problematic: his affair with the wife of his mayoral campaign manager and subsequent revelation that he had a drinking problem. (He has since married Jennifer Siebel, an actress, who is four months pregnant with their first child.)

Nonetheless, Newsom remains extremely popular in San Francisco, where he has pushed for an increase in health care, housing and preschool programs.

If Newsom's candidacy was the "giveth," the "taketh" came when Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who has long wanted to be governor -- he first ran back in 1982 -- dropped out of the race to seek the soon-to-be-vacant House seat of Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-10th CD). Tauscher has been nominated for an undersecretary of state post in the Obama administration.

Garamendi's decision caught some by surprise, though it would have been tough for him to break through a gubernatorial primary that is expected to include, in addition to Newsom, state Attorney General Jerry Brown and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

And winning the 10th CD special election won't be a cakewalk either; Tauscher has already endorsed state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier as her successor. But Garamendi was not going to be his party's nominee for governor. Still, if he does succeed in his bid for Congress, Schwarzenegger would name his successor at lieutenant governor.

(Garamendi trivia: Two of the people he defeated in his 2006 bid for LG are now in Congress. He defeated Jackie Speier in the Dem primary and Tom McClintock (R) in the general.)

Brown, 71, is considered the front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination; but (1), it's very early, and (2), part of the reason is that everyone knows Jerry Brown -- which is good and bad. Before he was elected AG in 2006, Brown, the son of the late ex-Gov. Pat Brown, was mayor of Oakland. Before that, he was state Democratic Party chair. And before that, he was also governor for two terms -- from 1975 until 1982, when he tried to win a Senate seat but lost to Pete Wilson (R). And did I mention that before that he was California secretary of state?

The point, of course, is that Brown has been in the public eye for nearly 40 years. Younger/fresher candidates like Newsom will no doubt try to make the case that the time has come for a newer generation of candidates.

But if age and familiarity are out, then how do you explain the fact that many people agree that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) could have the governorship if she wants it? Feinstein, who is 75 years old, sought the governorship once before, in 1990 -- also losing to the aforementioned Pete Wilson -- and the sense is that she could clear the field if she wants it again. But does she? My guess is that she doesn't run. (Plus, she just became chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee at a time when the Bush administration's record on interrogation of suspected terrorists is in the news.)

That leaves the 56-year-old Villaraigosa, who has made it clear early on that he's going to run. The two-term mayor and former speaker of the state Assembly is the only Latino in the race and the only Democrat from Southern California. Hispanics are expected to make up close to a third of the Democratic primary vote.

Other Democratic possibilities include former state Controller Steve Westly and state Superintendent of Schools Jack O'Connell.

Not as much ink has been spent on the GOP candidates, and I suspect part of that is that (1) Schwarzenegger's numbers have been hovering around toilet-level, and (2) Democrats feel revitalized. Who knows how long that will last. The Republican race is thought to be between state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay executive Meg Whitman, neither of whom is expected to lack for funds. Tom Campbell, currently a college professor and a former congressman, is also in the race. Twice he sought a Senate seat, losing the primary in 1992 and getting clobbered by Feinstein in the 2000 general election. All three Republicans have name ID problems -- for now.