As Murphy (D) Pulls Ahead, Will NY 20 Become Another Minn.?

It's been 163 days since voters in Minnesota went to the polls expecting to determine a winner in the battle for a Senate seat.

It's been 16 days since voters in New York's 20th Congressional District went to the polls to name a successor to Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated by now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Neither the Minnesota Senate seat nor the upstate New York House seat has been filled. Neither one is officially over. But both are clearly heading in the Democrats' direction. Both are likely to result in victory by the Democrat.

But before we get there, while the Senate race has long ago gone from voting booth to court chambers, there is a chance the New York contest could find itself before judges as well.

 

First, let's review the situation in Minnesota.

For those of you who can't remember that far back, Norm Coleman, the Republican incumbent, was being challenged by Al Franken, the Democrat, along with Dean Barkley, an independent.

While Coleman enjoyed a narrow lead over Franken on election night and in the days that followed, he hasn't had much good news since. For most of 2009, it's been Franken with the lead (also narrow). The efforts of the Coleman camp to get Minnesota judges to consider more than 1,000 previously rejected absentee ballots failed; the eventual number was far less. And thus, nearly every decision, every ruling, every everything, has gone against Coleman and for Franken. The most current number: Franken +312.

There are, understandably, many people — Minnesotans, Democrats, probably some Republicans — who want this over with. It's gone on a long time, and Franken has maintained his advantage after each stage. It's not that the lead has been going back and forth. There are also those who feel that, given how close the race was, Coleman has every right to fight this to the end.

The question of course is defining the end. Coleman will appeal to the state Supreme Court, which I suspect will rule the same as the three-judge panel ruled earlier this week: that Franken is the winner. I also suspect that then, and not before, GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty will certify the results. (I am less sure about Pawlenty's intentions than I am about the court's ruling.)

Then Coleman could, if he so desired, take his case to the U.S. Supreme Court. That would not be an unpopular path if it were up to many Senate Republicans in Washington. They detest Franken — who by the way has been on his bestest behavior throughout all of this — but they also want to keep Democrats away from the magic number of 60 for as long as they can (Franken would give them 59 seats if you include the independents in Connecticut and Vermont).

The lines are drawn. People on both sides are riled up about it. The tide of public opinion has been shifting in Franken's direction.

Meanwhile, there are signs that NY 20 could be heading toward the courts as well.

The battle between Scott Murphy (D), a businessman and first-time candidate, and Jim Tedisco, the Republican Assembly minority leader, remains airtight. But the big news of the week — the counting of absentee votes in Saratoga County, considered Tedisco country — did not give the Republican the boost he expected. Tedisco did come away from the county recount with 672 votes to Murphy's 509, but it wasn't enough to give him the lead. With most of Saratoga in, Murphy is up 86 votes. The tally thus far:

Murphy 79,105
Tedisco 79,019

There still are some 700 or so ballots that are being challenged, but most of them are contested by the GOP; Dems want them counted. The state Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that they will be counted with the possibility they can later be reviewed. So Murphy's lead could very well increase.

One bit of news that has reached the national media was the decision this week by the Tedisco camp reportedly to challenge the absentee ballot of Gillibrand herself. The now-senator did not know whether she would be in the district on March 31, so she requested and mailed her ballot. Republicans are apparently now saying that she was required to vote by machine since she was in the district on Election Day. Democrats have responded by calling the action "outrageous" and adding that Gillibrand wasn't in the 20th until later in the day, after the polls had closed.