Dead Even In NY 20, But Some Declare Winners/Losers

The bragging rights are going to have to wait a bit longer. First, there are recriminations and warnings about stealing elections to deal with.

In the political world, where each new day's event becomes the subject of worldwide attention, Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th Congressional District became ground zero for political junkies.

 

This is the seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand (D) when she was appointed to the Senate to succeed now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The candidates were Scott Murphy, a Democratic venture capitalist and first-time candidate, and Jim Tedisco, the Republican leader in the state Assembly and a veteran lawmaker. Both spent a ton of money, and both tried to make the race a referendum on President Obama's economic programs.

Last night, in a tense watching of the count, Murphy emerged with a 65-vote lead — out of 154,623 cast. Some 10,000 absentee votes remain to be counted, meaning we probably won't have a winner here for two weeks or so. (Well, it could be worse: It could be Minnesota.)

And while we don't have a winner, that hasn't stopped the two sides from making the case that the other side lost. Or, at least, failed.

For much of the day Tuesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) was explaining why the Republicans had the advantage:

NY-20 is a Republican Leaning District

Republicans have a significant voter registration advantage — 71,000 more voters are registered Republicans than are registered Democrats.

Kirsten Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold NY-20 in 28 years when she upset then-Representative John Sweeny [sic] in 2006. Sweeny faced significant ethical issues.

Even though President Obama won the district in 2008, it had previously been solidly Republican. President Bush won NY-20 in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, NY-20 was one of only six districts in New York State voting for President Bush in 2000, and one of only nine supporting him in 2004.

"Gillibrand's 2008 reelection made this district look more Democratic than it really is...Without [Senator Gillibrand's] incumbency, Democrats will have a tough time holding the seat." [Rothenberg Political Report; 2/6/09]

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said, "If there is any district in New York [Republicans] should be able to get back, it is this one." [First Read; 3/27/09]

Not to be outdone, Rep. Pete Sessions, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), explained why the Democrats should have won it:

Jim Tedisco has closed the gap in a district that has come to exemplify Democratic dominance in the Northeast in recent elections. That is a testament to the strength of Jim's campaign and the effectiveness of the Republican message of fiscal responsibility and accountability that Americans are demanding in the wake of the AIG scandal.

Less than 150 days ago, President Obama carried New York's 20th District, and former Congresswoman Gillibrand was handily reelected in this district by a margin of 62-38 percent, despite the fact that her Republican opponent spent $6 million trying to defeat her. For the first time in a long time, a Republican candidate went toe-to-toe with a Democrat in a hard-fought battle over independent voters. This was hardly a common phenomenon in 2008, particularly in the Northeast.

History of Recent Elections in NY-20:

* President Obama carried the district by a margin of 51%-48% in 2008.

* Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election in 2008 by a margin of 62%-38% against a challenger who spent $6 million.

* Eliot Spitzer carried the district by a margin of 57%-36% in 2006.

* Chuck Schumer carried the district in 2004, as did Hillary Clinton in 2006.

My take is that while neither side can pound their chest over the result, neither should they have their head down. Republicans have been on a long losing streak since 2006, when they lost control not only of NY 20 but the entire Congress as well. Going into yesterday's contest, they held but three of the state's 29 congressional seats — their lowest total ever. President Obama, who remains quite popular in upstate New York, endorsed Murphy. Tedisco had received withering criticism over his long refusal to say how he would have voted for the Obama economic stimulus package (he eventually said he'd vote no). Polls showed clear momentum toward Murphy, and most political pros I had spoken to expected the Democrat to win. So it wasn't a bad night for the GOP.

Same for the Dems. The district has a 70,000 advantage in Republican voters. Tedisco has been in office for nearly three decades, and no one had even heard of Murphy when the race started. The GOP had poured considerably more money into the contest.

Both sides will attempt to win the public debate over the next two weeks as the counting presumably will lead to a result. Republicans have already begun a pre-emptive attack suggesting the potential of thievery. Here's part of a letter sent by Tedisco:

The campaign is not over. ...

We need to ensure that the integrity of the election is protected and every vote is fairly counted. As it stands now, there is a Republican advantage in the number of absentee and military ballots that have been returned. The numbers are on our side. We can and will win this race!

We need to raise as much money as possible in the coming days to stop Nancy Pelosi and the National Democrats from stealing this election with a lot of lawyers and dirty tricks.

Similarly, this appeal from NRCC Executive Director Guy Harrison:

Don't let the Democrats steal this election. Less than 80 ballots separate Republican Jim Tedisco and his Democrat opponent. We cannot afford to allow the Democrats to steal this election.

We need your support to ensure we can overcome the Democrats' legal maneuvers.

Democrats have almost succeeded in stealing the election in Minnesota and seating Al Franken. We cannot allow them to manipulate electoral results to seat another tax-troubled liberal.

We need your support to make sure the will of the residents of New York's 20th district prevails in the final outcome.

Please contribute today and together we can ensure a fair and accurate count of the remaining ballots.

P.S. Democrats will do whatever they can to hold this seat. Do not allow them to steal this election. Please contribute $25, $50, $100 or more NOW so we can ensure a fair and accurate election.

No such rancor, yet, from the Democrats. But by any fair calculation of what has gone on thus far, Republicans have had a more negative tone, and some local observers saw a voter backlash against Tedisco for the nastiness.

Here's part of a statement from DNC Chairman Tim Kaine congratulating Murphy:

Scott Murphy embraced President Obama's message of change and his plans to fix our economy and create jobs, and as a result he stormed from more than 20 points down to winning a majority of votes cast tonight. Scott's performance tonight in an overwhelmingly Republican district, where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage over Democrats of more than 70,000, represents a repudiation of the failed politics and policies that Republicans continue to embrace. We are confident that when all the ballots are counted, Scott will expand his lead and become an ally to President Obama in Congress who will help the President create jobs and turn our economy around.

And this, from Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who chairs the DCCC:

From 21 points down to securing a majority of the vote tonight, congratulations to Scott Murphy who ran an extraordinary campaign focused on his record as a successful businessman who helped to create jobs and his strong support for President Obama's economic recovery act. As votes continue to be counted, we're confident that Scott Murphy will expand his lead.

Scott Murphy's strong showing in this district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 70,000 represents a rejection of the obstructionist agenda and scare tactics that have become the hallmark of House Republicans.

The Murphy-Tedisco race will be the featured subject in today's Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation at 2 p.m. ET and the online chat that follows at 2:45 p.m. ET.