Here's the good news for the Republican Party of Virginia and its effort to get their candidate, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, elected governor this fall:

In the past 30 years — as we wrote in breathtaking detail last Dec. 5 — every winner has been the candidate from the party opposite of the person who was elected president the year before. And since the guy in the White House, Barack Obama, is a Democrat, that could portend good things for McDonnell.

But before Old Dominion Republicans are going to take back the governorship after an eight-year absence, they are going to have to get their act together.

 

The soap opera that has consumed them for the past several months — deciding what to do about the polarizing state party chair, Jeffrey Frederick — came to a head on Saturday. By a vote of 57-18, the party ousted Frederick after he refused to step down after ten months of controversy. According to an account by reporter Jim Nolan in yesterday's Richmond Times-Dispatch, critics "bristled at what they believed was Frederick's impolitic personal style and tendency to ignite controversy with his public comments." (Similarly, the New York Times' Theo Emery wrote, "Other grievances accuse him of exceeding his authority, acting without the central committee's approval and damaging the party's reputation.")

In one memorable comment made during last year's presidential campaign, Frederick said that Obama and Osama bin Laden "both had friends that bombed the Pentagon" — referring to Obama's relationship with Weather Underground radical William Ayers. The remark was condemned by Obama's Republican opponent, John McCain.

And in November, Virginia Republicans lost a Senate seat (when Mark Warner replaced the retiring Republican John Warner) and three House seats (of incumbents Thelma Drake, Virgil Goode and Tom Davis).

McDonnell, who resigned as state AG to run for governor, were among those who were calling for Frederick's head. State Del. John Cosgrove, a Frederick opponent, said, "What didn't happen was the old guys saying, 'We're mad we lost, let's get a new chairman.' The people that wanted us to keep Jeff most were the Democrats. It seemed like every time we turned around, Jeff was saying something inappropriate."

But Frederick's supporters said the problems faced by Virginia Republicans existed well before he became party chair last May, when he ousted former Lt. Gov. John Hager, a more moderate figure. They now say that many religious and grass-roots conservatives in the party may sit out this year's election, when all 100 members of the House of Delegates are up in addition to the governorship. And Frederick himself said that his critics were out for blood from the outset because of his strong conservative views.

The battle between Republican moderates and conservatives is not new to Virginia, and in fact has been going on for quite some time in many states. But the dumping of Frederick is not necessarily a sign that moderates have taken over the GOP in the commonwealth.

Some Republicans not associated with either wing say the party is endangering a clear opportunity to win back the governorship. Three Democrats — former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, ex-state Del. Brian Moran, and state Sen. Creigh Deeds — are battling for their nomination in the June 9 primary, a battle that has gotten personal and heated.

And later this week, a look at what the Democrats are facing.

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