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Crist is expected to try again for the Senate.

By most accounts, it looks like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will announce his candidacy for the Senate tomorrow, in Tallahassee.

The news will not take many by surprise. Ever since Sen. Mel Martinez (R) announced in December that he would not seek re-election -- and after former Gov. Jeb Bush turned down entreaties to get him to run -- Crist has been the favorite among Republicans to hold the seat.

Crist is one of those rare politicians who seem to have the luxury of choosing which office they want to pursue; political observers in the state say he would be favored either in the Senate race or for another term as governor.

Assuming he chooses the former, it will be his second attempt. In 1998, as a state senator from the St. Petersburg area, he got crushed by Sen. Bob Graham (D) by nearly a million votes. But two years later he was elected state education commissioner and in 2002, when that post was made appointive, he ran for and was elected state attorney general. In 2006, when Bush had to leave office because of term limits, he won the governorship.

The Senate seat is hardly a slam-dunk for Crist; already running for the Republican nomination is Marco Rubio, the former state House speaker, a conservative who says Crist is a RINO -- a "Republican In Name Only." It's possible that had he run, Jeb Bush could have scared away a primary challenge (August 2010). But Crist doesn't hold that sway in the party, certainly not with conservatives. Rubio would have deferred to Bush, but not to Crist -- at least not yet -- whom he has compared to Arlen Specter.

The thinking is that Martinez may back Crist as his successor. More important is whether Bush plans to get involved in the primary.

And there are the Democrats who are already running, notably U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber, both from south Florida.

But what a Crist-for-Senate scenario would also very likely do is, with an open governorship, cause a bunch of statewide elected officials -- mostly Republicans -- to try to succeed Crist. And that would give Democrats an opportunity to reclaim those positions.

Those Republicans are state Attorney General Bill McCollum, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp and state Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson. McCollum is a certain gubernatorial candidate; the others may run as well. Also likely to jump in is Alex Sink, the sole statewide Democrat; she is the chief financial officer.

Still another potential gubernatorial candidate on the GOP side is Rep. Vern Buchanan.

Whether or not Bronson does get in the race, he is term-limited as ag commissioner. Rep. Adam Putnam (R) has already announced his intention to run for that post.

One fun fact on Florida Cabinet officials running for governor: When Crist was elected in 2002, he was the first to accomplish that feat since 1912, when then-Attorney General Park Trammell (D) was elected.

categories: Midterm Exams

3:58 - May 11, 2009

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