Specter Gets Primary Foe, But Burris Remains Most At Risk -- Top 5 Most Vulnerable List

Most likely to get knocked off in the 2010 primary? Burris tops our list.

The news that Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) may take on Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Democratic primary is not especially good news for the Pennsylvania senator, but it still doesn't compare to the precarious situation of Sen. Roland Burris.

The Illinois Democrat, appointed to the Senate by the disgraced Rod Blagojevich in his waning days as governor, found himself in the news once again this week. A federal wiretap installed during the investigation of Blagojevich reveals a conversation Burris had with Rob Blagojevich, the ex-gov's brother.

While Burris says nothing on the tape indicates he broke the law, his words DO contradict his earlier sworn testimony that he had not talked to anyone in the governor's office about the Senate post, vacated by Barack Obama when he became president. If nothing else, the tape shines a light on the process that brought him the Senate appointment. And the light is unflattering.

Burris makes it clear that he desperately wants the Senate seat and would be willing to help the governor raise money, writing a personal check if necessary. He never sent a check, apparently, but his overwhelming desire to get Blago's imprimatur for the Senate is a bit, well, sad.

Let's not forget that the Senate ethics committee is looking at Burris' statements. Let's not forget that the senior senator from Illinois, Majority Whip Dick Durbin, is clearly looking elsewhere for a Senate candidate. All of which keeps Burris atop our list of incumbents Most Endangered of Getting Knocked Off in the Primary Next Year.

Our top five:

1. Roland Burris: We're not convinced Burris even decides to run. But if he does, he'll face a field that so far includes state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, with Rep. Jan Schakowsky standing in the wings. Already announced is Chris Kennedy, son of the late Robert Kennedy. If Burris runs there is simply no way he survives the primary.

2. Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV): Gibbons' numbers are only marginally better than Burris'. Gibbons, narrowly elected in 2006, was already in trouble over reports that he had assaulted a cocktail waitress in a parking garage. Then came a messy divorce that has been front pages for months. And then he got more bad headlines when he announced he would not take federal stimulus money that would help pay for unemployment benefits, saying the state would be stuck with future financial obligations once the federal money ended. An understandable position, just not a popular one. Already promising a primary challenge are Michael Montandon, the mayor of North Las Vegas, and former state Sen. Joe Heck. Others may join in. There's no guarantee that Gibbons will run again, but if he does, he's unlikely to survive a primary.

3. Gov. David Paterson (D-NY): It's hard to envision a governor of New York failing to win his party's backing for another term; if it's ever happened, it was a long time ago. But Paterson's numbers are just terrible. He's an accidental governor, moving up when Eliot Spitzer (D) got caught in a prostitute scandal. But he hasn't been able to take advantage of his office. The state's first African-American governor, Paterson received failing marks for how he handled the Kirsten Gillibrand Senate appointment -- more specifically, how his office handled Caroline Kennedy's interest in the seat. The New York economy, like many states, is not so rosy, but Paterson has been unable to blame predecessors or even former presidents. It seems to be a given that state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is going to challenge Paterson in next year's primary, a primary no one (at this writing) thinks Paterson can win. (FYI: Gillibrand was quoted the other day as saying she doesn't think Cuomo is going to run. But she is a minority on that one.)

4. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY): We've often spelled out in detail here the problems that Bunning faces with his own party, most recently here. His last pronouncement on the race was to insist he's running, but we're not convinced. The fact that his GOP colleague from Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, has made it clear that he wants Bunning to retire seems to indicate that there will be a serious primary challenge next May should Bunning stay in the race.

5. Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX): Four years ago, the prospect of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) challenging Perry in the gubernatorial primary was just a threat. This time it's real. And Perry is taking it very seriously, becoming a conservative champion on everything from refusing stimulus money from Washington to a half-serious threat, made at an anti-tax tea party, to take Texas and secede from the Union. He has been mockingly calling his opponent "Kay Bailout Hutchison." Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the 2008 VP nominee and a favorite among conservatives, has endorsed Perry. Hutchison's argument, as it was in 2006, is that Perry is ineffective and fails to provide leadership and vision. Perry became governor after George W. Bush resigned in 2000, but he and Bush are not considered close. In 2006 Perry was re-elected in a four-way race with just 39 percent of the vote. The anticipated battle against Hutchison is personal and will get nastier as we approach the March 2010 primary.

Others to watch:

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) -- likely to be challenged by Rep. Joe Sestak.

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) -- what passes for conservatism in the rest of the country isn't always shared in Utah. Last year Rep. Chris Cannon (R) was knocked off in the GOP primary because he wasn't sufficiently conservative, even though he was among the most conservative House members nationally. Now state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff has thrown his hat in the ring, blasting Bennett's support for the 2008 Wall Street bailout/recovery (you decide) bill. Mitt Romney, popular in Utah, has endorsed Bennett.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) -- prominent Democrats have withdrawn from consideration, mostly after pressure from the White House. But a serious primary challenge cannot be ruled out.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- expecting a challenge from a candidate allied with the anti-immigrant Minuteman movement. Nothing serious anticipated at this time.

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) -- GOP seems to be lining up behind him, but one never knows.

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) -- state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) had long been planning a gov challenge to Blagojevich, and now he's gone. No indication as to whether she wants the governorship badly enough to challenge Quinn, Blago's squeaky-clean successor.