Bloggers, Polls Weigh In On Virginia Democratic Gov Primary

Virginia Democrats will choose their gubernatorial nominee in a primary tomorrow for the first time since 1977. The reason you are reading so much about Virginia is not that it's the state (commonwealth) with the most interesting race for governor. It's that, like New Jersey, it's the only game in town this year.

And that happens every four years. We watch Virginia, and New Jersey, closer than most, because they are the only two gubernatorial contests in the year after the presidential election.

There's a lot happening in the Old Dominion. I previewed the race on Thursday. Here's the latest.

With no suspense on the Republican side -- former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell won the GOP nomination at last week's state convention -- tomorrow's primary focuses on the three Democrats who will take on McDonnell in November. State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and ex-state Del. Brian Moran are fighting it out, hoping to succeed term-limited Gov. Tim Kaine.

Polls. A new Public Policy Poll shows Deeds with a double-digit lead. The survey, conducted June 6-7, has Deeds with 40 percent, followed by McAuliffe at 26 percent and Moran at 24. The poll shows undecided voters moving in Deeds' direction. PPP tracking also shows Deeds gaining 13 points in the past week while his rivals have each advanced by 2 points.

Survey USA also has Deeds up: Deeds 42, McAuliffe 30, Moran 21.

Here's how Eric Kleefeld, writing in the Talking Points Memo blog, explains Deeds' gains in the polls:

McAuliffe has led in this race for quite a while, thanks to a superior fundraising and advertising effort. Next up in the money race was Moran...and Deeds was the third man in the race. But then Moran began to attack McAuliffe, thus sullying McAuliffe but not actually benefitting himself. Deeds was the true beneficiary -- and right on time, too, with a run of positive ads and big newspaper endorsement in the home stretch.

Bob Holsworth, one of our favorite Virginia analysts, writes in his Virginia Tomorrow blog that if the general election turns out to be Deeds vs. McDonnell, it will be a rematch of their 2005 race for attorney general, which McDonnell narrowly won. And, for those of us who love this trivia, it's been 24 years since we had a similar rematch. In 1985, state Attorney General Jerry Baliles (D) defeated Wyatt Durrette (R) for governor -- four years after the two of them ran against each other for AG.

Turnout. Paul Fidalgo, writing on the Fair Vote blog, calls it "essentially a three-way tie."

If recent history is any guide, turnout will likely range between really low and really-really low. In the Democrats' 2006 hotly-contested primary for US Senate won by Jim Webb, turnout was less than 3.65% of registered voters -- and it was only 2.6% in 2001's four-way lieutenant governor primary. So it's anyone's guess who will end up the nominee on Tuesday, but what is almost beyond doubt is that whoever wins will not have passed a majority threshold -- and may not be the candidate most Virginia Democrats preferred.

Money. McAuliffe, a prolific fundraiser, leads the pack, having pulled in more than $7 million -- much more than Moran ($3.8M) or Deeds ($2.8M). And that leads to this correction from my post of last Thursday, sent in by Ramon Bullard of Richmond, Va.:

While your article Hare & Tortoises In Virginia Democratic Gov Primary is good and solid for the most part, your facts and comments about Moran at the end of the article are wrong. First of all, Brian Moran has not raised the least amount of money; he is now ahead of Deeds and also has more cash on hand than Deeds. Second, the comment about he being the least polished speaker is off what most people who know about Virginia politics would say. I would just point you to Moran's speech at the annual Democratic fundraiser and the reviews made of it by the Washington Post blog.

Ads. McAuliffe has a new ad on up on TV about electability, saying he has the best chance of any Democrat of beating McDonnell in November.

Endorsements. The Falls Church News-Press for Moran:

Moran has a wealth of experience fighting for both the betterment of Virginia and progressive values. As a Northern Virginian he brings a depth of knowledge of the region's needs unmatched by his two opponents. His strongly-stated vow to fight for the repeal of the Marshall-Newman amendment to the state constitution, which denies equal rights to a whole class of Virginia citizens by banning gay marriage, sets him on a high moral ground that will serve him well going into the general election.

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer endorsed McAuliffe last week.

Last primary. Virginia Dems last held a gubernatorial primary in 1977, when Henry Howell, a liberal, defeated moderate Andrew Miller. Since then, every Dem gov nominee -- Chuck Robb (1981), Gerald Baliles (1985), Doug Wilder (1989), Mary Sue Terry (1993), Don Beyer (1997), Mark Warner (2001) and Tim Kaine (2005) -- was nominated either at a state convention or ran unopposed for the nomination. For those keeping score at home, Robb, Baliles, Wilder, Warner and Kaine were victorious in November.

Buttons. Let the record show that I have not seen a single campaign button for any of the four candidates for governor. Very, very depressing.

Want more? There's a great link of a compilation of Virginia political blogs that will keep you up until the voting is over on Tuesday. It's called Waldo's Virginia Political Blogroll.