Hare & Tortoises In Virginia Democratic Gov Primary

At some point, we'll be talking about the race for governor of Virginia in larger political terms.

As in ... Is this the place where Republicans begin their long trek back? Will they win on the home turf of Gov. Tim Kaine, the Democratic National chairman? If so, will it portend vulnerability for the Democrats in 2010?

Or will Virginia continue the string of Democratic advances in the Old Dominion? Barack Obama won Virginia in 2008, the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since LBJ in '64. Democrats have won back-to-back Senate and gubernatorial contests. Will that trend continue?

But it's too early for such lofty thoughts.

Right now, the focus is on the Democratic primary next Tuesday, June 9, where three candidates are running: former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, and ex-state Delegate Brian Moran. (Bob McDonnell, who resigned as state attorney general back in February in order to focus full time on the race for governor, has already been selected as the Republican nominee.)

And for most of the primary campaign, of the three Dems running to succeed the term-limited Kaine, the spotlight has been on one man: McAuliffe.

To say that McAuliffe is a larger-than-life figure is a bit hyperbole. But from the outset, the Democratic gubernatorial primary -- the first one since 1977, by the way -- was thought to be down to one question: Are you for him or against him?

McAuliffe is, in no special order, energetic, boastful, loud, cheerful, aggressive, confident, slick, and charming. He is also wealthy -- a multi-millionaire -- and has not hesitated to spend what he feels is necessary to win. Of all the candidates in the race, McAuliffe is the only one with a national presence. In addition to his tenure at the DNC, he was Hillary Clinton's 2008 national campaign chair. His reputation as someone who can raise a ton of money is legendary. With some $7 million raised for his campaign thus far, he went on TV back in January, earlier than either of his primary rivals. Bill Clinton has been in the commonwealth three times to campaign for him. McAuliffe is running on the theme that he can best create new jobs for the Old Dominion -- similar to what Mark Warner (D), now a senator but then a businessman, said during his own successful gubernatorial campaign in 2001.

But there are some chinks in his armor. He's been accused by his rivals for trying to "buy" the nomination. He is on the defensive over his role in Global Crossing, where he invested $100,000 in the telecom giant and made millions on the deal, only to see the company collapse two years later, with 10,000 jobs lost. Moran has accused McAuliffe of "working insider deals for himself."

Earlier in the campaign, Moran also took McAuliffe on in what seemed to observers to be an attempt to replay the Hillary vs. Obama race of 2008. McAuliffe, as the Clinton campaign manager, stuck with the former first lady well after it seemed obvious that Obama was going to be the party's nominee. Moran has tried to make the case, perhaps to African-American voters, that McAuliffe, who during this campaign has boasted of his efforts to elect Obama, really did much less than he says he did to help elect him.

While McAuliffe and Moran were going after each other, Creigh Deeds (his first name is pronounced "Kree"), started sneaking up, completely under the radar. He, like Moran, is not well known, though he ran statewide four years ago, losing the race for attorney general (by 323 votes) to McDonnell. Hailing from rural Virginia, he is clearly the most conservative of the trio. But anecdotal evidence suggests that more voters are seeing him as the "real" Virginian in the race. And while he probably trails his rivals in vote-rich northern Virginia, he was endorsed by the Washington Post, which is the most widely read newspaper in the area:

Some progressive voters may look past Mr. Deeds, assuming he's too far to the right on social issues. They should look again. Yes, he describes himself as a supporter of the Second Amendment. He's willing, however, to put limits on gun ownership when the stakes are highest, brokering a compromise in an effort to close the state's notorious gun show loophole. His support for abortion rights and for an amendment to prohibit the Confederate flag emblem from being displayed on state license plates are all the more impressive considering the weight of conservative voters in his district.

The knock on Mr. Deeds is that he's a nice guy -- an odd insult. The implication is that he might not be forceful enough to push his agenda through a balky legislature. Our judgment, from watching Mr. Deeds over the years, is that he is more politically astute than his "aw, shucks" persona might suggest. He has carefully studied Democratic governors who have accomplished the most -- notably Mark R. Warner and Gerald L. Baliles -- and understands how they mixed reaching out with playing tough. He's better positioned to do both than either of his opponents.

If Deeds is the conservative in the primary race, Moran is the liberal. For example, of the three, only Moran supports same-sex marriage. And if Clinton is the star surrogate for McAuliffe, then the Kennedy family -- led by Ethel Kennedy, RFK's widow -- is playing that role for Moran. It wasn't lost on anyone that in that Obama-Clinton battle of last spring, the Kennedys gave Obama key endorsements. The younger brother of Congressman Jim Moran (D-VA), he had been the head of the Democratic caucus in the state House of Delegates, getting good reviews from his party, before he resigned last December to campaign for governor full time. If it sounds like he speaks with a Boston accent, it's because he does: he's from the Boston suburb of Natick. He's probably the least polished speaker of the three and has raised the least amont of money.

Conventional wisdom from day one was that the race is McAuliffe's to lose. That still may be the case. But it's a closer contest than anyone imagined.