The New Jersey Republican Party has a golden opportunity this year to do something it hasn't done in awhile: elect a candidate to statewide office. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, who left the Senate to become governor in 2005, has seen his numbers, along with the economy, tank, and he has responded by raising taxes and cutting services. The GOP would love to take advantage by ousting him in November.

But first the party will have to unite following today's contentious primary where, as Garden State Republicans have experienced before, the preferred candidate of the party establishment is being challenged by a conservative outsider.

 

In this case, the frontrunner is Chris Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey who has a strong record on fighting organized crime, having sent some 130 corrupt politicians and public employees to prison. For years he's been considered the party's dream candidate to recapture the governorship, last held by a Republican in 2001. When Republicans do manage to win in New Jersey — Tom Kean and Christine Todd Whitman, for example — they do so as moderates with the ability to appeal to Democrats and independents. Christie is seen in that mold, though the primary challenge from the right has forced him to express strong conservative positions; unlike Kean and Whitman, he calls himself pro-life and opposes what is known as partial-birth abortion.

Before Christie can look ahead to November, he's got to dispatch Steve Lonegan in today's primary. The former mayor of Bogota (in Bergen County), Lonegan is a no-nonsense, pro-flat tax, anti-abortion conservative who ran for governor in the 2005 primary. He says the problem with the state party and Christie is that they have no principles other than wanting to win. A low turnout is thought to help Lonegan, who has a committed base of support. However, polls show Christie with a sizable lead. My guess is that it's going to be closer than most people think.

Three other Republicans are running, including state Assemblyman Rick Merkt, like Lonegan a strong conservative.

Polls show Christie beating Corzine in November. Such numbers excite Republicans, who haven't carried the state in a presidential election since 1988, haven't won a Senate contest since 1972, and hold just five of the state's 13 House seats.

But it would be foolish to count Corzine out. Between his victories for the Senate in 2000 and governor in 2005, he spent more than $100 million, much of it from his own personal fortune. He is a former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, not exactly a badge of honor in these times, but he has the financial wherewithall to keep him in the running. To win statewide, where there is no one major media market, you need to spend heavily on TV in New York City and Philadelphia, and Corzine has the wallet to do that.

One sign that Christie would be a formidible candidate in November is the fact that Democrats have already begun to run ads attacking the former federal prosecutor — hoping to influence today's primary vote.

But Christie has vulnerabilities as well. He has been on the defensive over his decision to award a lucrative no-bid contract to David Kelley, a federal prosecutor who two years ago decided not to prosecute Christie's brother for stock fraud.

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