Here's what we know so far about the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts.

As announced yesterday by Gov. Deval Patrick (D), the general election will be held on Jan. 19. More important — since the odds of a Republican winning the seat are somewhere between slim and none — the primary is Dec. 8. It's the Democratic primary that will let us know who will fill Kennedy's seat for the next three-plus years.

The asterisk in all of this is the increasing likelihood that the state legislature will come back later this month and change the law, allowing Patrick to name an interim senator who will serve until the special election.

 

This change in law, as I've written in the past, would reverse what state lawmakers changed back in 2004 — when Sen. John Kerry was a potential winning presidential candidate and the Democratic legislature didn't want Republican Gov. Mitt Romney naming his successor. (Boston Globe columnist Adrian Walker today called that 2004 law change a "stupid, craven move," "lousy government at its worst.")

Democrats are now saying that an interim appointment — whether or not he or she is permitted to run in the special election — is desperately needed, because leaving the seat vacant until January would be unacceptable, especially with all those crucial votes coming up. The fact is, Kennedy has been missing votes for much of the past year, including many on key budget and spending bills, so this situation is hardly new.

But obviously, Democrats — who have been boasting of late they have 60 votes and don't need Republicans to pass health-care changes — are now a bit nervous in the aftermath of Kennedy's death. (Note the recent reach out to Maine's Olympia Snowe.)

And while the list of potential Democratic candidates for the seat has not changed much in recent days, the fact remains that two people who, coincidentally, have "Kennedy" as a last name, figure in most of the speculation.

His widow, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, heads the list, despite countless reports that she has "told friends" she's not interested; Gov. Patrick said as much yesterday. No such denials have come from another Kennedy, former Rep. Joseph Kennedy II, whose "campaign" for the seat may have begun with his eloquent eulogy at Ted's funeral. He's been out of Congress since 1999 but retains a sizable campaign war chest. But his name is also very much part of the conversation.

Many Democrats have been disdainful over the familiar ritual of passing down political posts from family member to family member; note how that disappears when talking not about the Bushes but about the Kennedys. (Ted himself was reportedly making phone calls last year to get niece Caroline Kennedy appointed to the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton.)

Of course, succeeding a late husband in the Senate via appointment, while hardly the ideal democratic way of doing things, is not unusual. Here's a list of those who came to the Senate that way in the past half-century:

Jean Carnahan (D-MO) — For the record, Carnahan never actually succeeded her late husband in the Senate. What happened is that Gov. Mel Carnahan was killed in a plane crash three weeks before the 2000 election, and yet he won the Senate race anyway. His successor as governor appointed his widow Jean to the seat in January of 2001. She was defeated in her bid for election in 2002.

Jocelyn Burdick (D-ND) — Appointed in September 1992 to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her husband, Quentin Burdick. She served just under three months and did not seek election to the seat.

Maryon Allen (D-AL) — Appointed in June 1978 to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her husband, Jim Allen. She ran for the seat but was defeated in the 1978 Democratic primary.

Muriel Humphrey (D-MN) — Appointed in January 1978 to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her husband, Hubert Humphrey. She served for nine-plus months and did not seek election to the seat.

It's slightly different with Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). She succeeded her father, Frank Murkowski, who appointed her to fill his Senate seat after he was elected governor in 2002. She was elected for a six-year term in 2004 and is up again next year.

And, of course, Ted Kennedy would have been appointed to fill his brother Jack's Senate seat in 1960 had he been old enough to serve. That's why there was a placeholder in the seat until 1962, when Ted turned 30.

Tags: On The Ballot