Political junkies everywhere are glued to what's going on in New York's 23rd congressional district, that upstate special election for a seat that hasn't gone Democratic since there has been a Republican Party. But the GOP candidate there is in real jeopardy, and in fact some speculate that she could finish third in a field of three. (See yesterday's post.)

Less attention — far less attention — is being placed on the other special congressional election that will be decided on Tuesday. That's in California's 10th District, necessitated when Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) resigned to take a post in the State Department.

The dearth of coverage is not surprising. Since she first won the seat in 1996, knocking off GOP incumbent Bill Baker — and especially since the 10th was redistricted — Tauscher has had no trouble winning. Last year, she got 65 percent of the vote. So, on paper at least, it's hardly one that bears watching.

Not so, say Republicans. Their candidate is David Harmer, an attorney and son of John Harmer, who briefly served as Ronald Reagan's lt. gov. some three-plus decades ago. The GOP says voters are tired of the status quo and are ready for change. A poll conducted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in early October had Harmer within seven points.

I don't think it will be that close.

One reason is the district's demographics. Democrats have an 18-point advantage in voter registration. The other is the Democratic candidate. He is John Garamendi, the state's lt. gov., who got into the race when his bid for his party's gubernatorial nomination was going nowhere.

Garamendi is a well-known fixture in Democratic politics, having also been elected statewide as insurance commissioner in both 2002 and 1990. He also ran for governor in the 1994 and 1982 primaries, as well as the primary for state controller in 1986. His win-loss record may not be terribly impressive, but this looks like one he's going to take.

The Contra Costa Times has endorsed Garamendi:

Voters will easily be able to discern the differences between Garamendi and Harmer, who disagree considerably on the major issues facing the nation and district.

Garamendi supports single-payer health insurance. Harmer does not. Harmer opposed the federal stimulus package. Garamendi supported it. Garamendi wants a strong cap-and-trade system to help cut greenhouse gas emissions. Harmer calls it an onerous burden on consumers.

Garamendi supports the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and a change in the law to allow same-sex couples to legally marry. Harmer has not taken strong positions on either. ...

With eight years' experience as insurance commissioner, Garamendi has valuable knowledge needed to make informed decisions about health care reform. As a rancher and with service in the federal Department of Interior, he has credibility with agricultural interests and environmentalists, which puts him in a favorable position to work on critical water issues that affect the Delta. ...

Harmer is a well-informed and an articulate candidate who could have a political future, perhaps as a candidate for the California Assembly.

However, he lacks Garamendi's long record of government service in public office and likely would not have as much influence in Washington, D.C., to benefit the district. We believe Garamendi's experience can better serve area interests and that he deserves voter support on Tuesday.

Tags: On The Ballot