Political Junkie

Democrat Takes Lead In NY 23 Special

10:00

October 15, 2009

The nightmare Republicans experienced back in March, when they failed to pick up the House seat of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) in upstate New York, may be on the verge of repeating itself in another special election.

A new poll taken in New York's 23rd District -- the one vacated by now-Army Secretary John McHugh -- shows Democrat Bill Owens, a first-time candidate, with a narrow lead. The district has never elected a Democrat in its history. The efforts by GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, a pro-choice moderate state assemblywoman, to unite Republicans and independents behind her candidacy are not going well. Doug Hoffman, who became the Conservative Party candidate after he failed to win the GOP nod, is pulling nearly a quarter of the vote in this solidly Republican district. He is boasting a slew of endorsements, including that of Club for Growth. Both Hoffman and Owens are vastly outspending Scozzafava in the race, which will be decided on Nov. 3.

Here are the latest numbers in the Siena College poll, released today:

Owens 33
Scozzafava 29
Hoffman 23

Two weeks ago, the same poll had Scozzafava up 35-27, with Hoffman trailing at 16 percent.

Part of the reason for the turnaround, says Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, is the TV commercials:

Among those who've seen Owens' commercials, a small plurality says the commercials make them more likely to support Owens. However, by a margin of 28-12 percent, those who've seen Scozzafava's commercials say those commercials make them less likely to support her. By small margins, voters think Scozzafava is running the most negative campaign and Owens is running the most positive campaign.

The New York State United Teachers union endorsed Scozzafava on Tuesday. According to the Albany Times Union's Rick Karlin, the endorsement "brings with it NYSUT's considerable fund-raising ability and get-out-the-vote capabilities."

The National Republican Congressional Committee has launched a new Web ad highlighting what it says is Owens' "continuing efforts to hide his past from voters in Central and Northern New York. While Owens tries to keep up the charade and portray himself as a 'businessman' who has created jobs, the truth is that Owens is a lawyer with a checkered history of clients."