New Jersey Governor: OK, Whom Do You Dislike Least?

It is not unusual to see campaigns turn ugly in New Jersey, and to say that this year's gubernatorial contest is the ugliest in memory may be a stretch. But it's not a pretty sight.

Much of the nastiness has come from the campaign of the incumbent, Democrat Jon Corzine. And why not? When the latest Quinnipiac Poll shows 56 percent of state voters giving Corzine a negative job rating — which by the way is his best showing in months — then going negative sure seems to make sense.

To put it bluntly, it has not been a rewarding four years for Gov. Corzine. The former Goldman Sachs executive resigned his Senate seat to make the race for governor in 2005, insisting that his background would rescue the state from its financial problems. He spent a fortune — some $43 million, part of his Goldman Sachs fortune — on his campaign (which followed upon the record $60 million he spent getting elected to the Senate in 2000).

Since then, here's what he has to show for it: the economy is in turmoil, unemployment is up, the deficit is ballooning, and taxes have been raised. When "Wall Street" became a dirty word for many voters in 2008 (fact check: it's actually two words), Corzine's Wall Street background seemed like an anchor around his neck.

Then came the dramatic moment in July, when 44 people were arrested in New Jersey on corruption charges. The list included three mayors and two state assemblymen, some of who were close allies of Corzine. Soon after, federal officials raided the home of a member of the governor's Cabinet; he quickly resigned. One of the Democratic consultants arrested committed suicide. The Republican candidate, Chris Christie, had the issue he was looking for. There were rumors that Corzine himself would quit the race.

But he never doubted himself. He named a veteran reform-minded lawmaker, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, as his running mate (N.J. will elect a lt. gov. this year for the first time ever). And he went after the ethics of Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, in a big way.

A smart strategy. Christie built his reputation on having sent mobsters and politicians — from both parties — to jail for corruption. But the Corzine campaign has turned the tables back on the Republican. It has attempted to paint Christie as a lackey of George W. Bush and Karl Rove. As a member of the party that wants to "dictate their own religious beliefs to the rest of us." The party that brought "skyrocketing unemployment, a housing crisis, bank bailouts, and a war in Iraq."

A group with Democratic ties spent nearly a million dollars during the GOP primary attacking Christie, hoping — in vain — that Republicans would nominate conservative Steve Lonegan, widely considered to be a weaker opponent for Corzine. But Democrats haven't let up on the attack. And Christie's once-sizable lead in the polls — it was in the double digits for much of the year — has evaporated. (A Roll Call column back in July by analyst Stu Rothenberg, entitled, "You Have 4 Months To Learn To Say 'Gov. Chris Christie' — seems like a million years ago.)

In fairness, the decline of Christie in the polls says as much about Christie as it does about his opposition. He has not sufficiently spelled out what he intends to do to revive the economy, other than call for tax cuts. He found himself on the defensive when it was revealed that he may have spoken to Karl Rove in 2006 about a future political campaign. It became a big deal; to be talking politics while serving as U.S. Attorney is a violation of the Hatch Act. (It was hardly unexpected to watch the "outraged" reaction of so many Democrats; today, a "shocked" Sen. Frank Lautenberg called for a federal investigation into Christie's activities.)

There's more. When he traveled as U.S. Attorney, Christie would often stay at far more expensive hotels than the Justice Department had recommended. That got big headlines. He failed to report a $46,000 loan to a then-top aide while he was U.S. Attorney on his tax returns or financial-disclosure forms. And the person who received the loan, Michele Brown, may have used her position in the federal prosecutor's office to help his gubernatorial campaign, according to the New York Times.

If Christie didn't have enough troubles, there's another wrinkle: the emergence of a viable independent candidate, Chris Daggett, Daggett, a former environmental aide to ex-Gov. Tom Kean (R) who runs from the liberal side of the spectrum, has impressed voters in his two debate performances. Most polls indicate that Daggett, who is running in the mid-teens, is taking more votes away from Christie than Corzine. The Christie campaign is desperately trying to make the point that a "vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine," telling voters that any vote for the independent is a wasted one.

Polls show the race to be a dead heat. Even if he hasn't convinced voters that he deserves a second term, Corzine has made sure there are serious doubts about Christie. Momentum is clearly in his favor.

Having said that, his tactics seemed to cross a line — or at the least, stoop to a new low — when his campaign put up a commercial focusing on Christie's hefty girth. The spot says that Christie "threw his weight around" when he avoided a traffic citation for some infraction, while the video shows Christie jiggling his way out of a car, in slow motion. Democrats deny, with a straight face, that they were making Christie's weight an issue. But just as the ad was going up, there he was, a trim, fit Gov. Corzine jogging through the streets of Newark with Mayor Cory Booker. (Reminds me of George Bush, trying to contrast his fitness with the 69-year old Ronald Reagan, out jogging during the 1980 Republican presidential primary campaign.) The Washington Post's David Broder, the dean of political columnists, said it was "a really distasteful tactic — the 'fat boy' ploy":

This is not an issue that Barack Obama can afford to ignore. As the leader of the Democratic Party, he is accountable for the Corzine campaign. He has to know that if he, Obama, were not such a lean, fit and dead-eye basketball player, he could be a target himself.

He may be tempted to emulate Corzine's tactics when he runs for reelection, if he's lucky enough to draw Newt Gingrich as his opponent. But he ought to remember that it could as easily be Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty or the calorie-counting Mike Huckabee. ...

And Democrats with longer memories (or less dire political circumstances) than Corzine's ought to remember recent history. ... Go back to Bill Clinton, who obviously showed the effects of too many stops at McDonald's. Papa Bush and Bob Dole, with not an extra ounce of fat, could have made him a laughingstock. ...

This issue has no place in our politics.

The New York Times' Gail Collins was more understanding of what Corzine is trying to do:

It's hard to blame his campaign for focusing on matters of girth. The state is a mess, his party members keep getting indicted and his personality is what we always like to politely term "abrasive." All he's really got is his ability to run a 10K. Corzine can't even dwell on Christie's terrible driving record given the fact that he spent the first part of his administration incapacitated because of an unfortunate decision to mix speeding with failure to buckle one's seat belt.

But right now, the name of the game is winning, not playing nice. And with Virginia more and more looking like a lost cause for the Democrats, the expectation is that the White House will do whatever it can to make sure Corzine is re-elected.