NY 23: Can Doug Hoffman Pull A 'Buckley?'

The story line for the Nov. 3 special congressional election in upstate New York's 23rd District has been pretty consistent in the past several weeks. This is the seat vacated by Republican John McHugh, who was picked by President Obama to become the Secretary of the Army. The seat has never gone to a Democrat.

But the Republican candidate, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, is being viewed with suspicion, if not dismay, by a growing number of conservatives for her positions on an assortment of issues, including abortion, same-sex marriage and taxes. In many states, the choice for conservatives would be limited: hold your nose and vote for the Republican candidate, or sit home.

In New York, there is another choice: Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, who was endorsed by the third party after he failed to secure the GOP nod. For the longest time, polls have shown Hoffman eating into Scozzafava's support. Three weeks ago, Hoffman's numbers were a nuisance to the GOP. Then, a Siena College poll showed Hoffman costing Scozzafava the lead, which she had held from the beginning.

 

It's not that the right didn't realize their litmus test would jeopardize the historic GOP hold on the seat. It's that they didn't care. Or, to be fairer, that wasn't the point. There is party and there is principle, they argued, and principle comes before party. The anti-tax Club for Growth group lined up behind Hoffman early. Followed were endorsements from conservatives such as Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, Rick Santorum, Steve Forbes, Fred Thompson, Gary Bauer, Michele Bachmann and others. Said Palin, "Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate that more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race."

Newt Gingrich, whose role in helping to capture the House for the GOP in 1994 made him a hero to many conservatives — as well as a potential 2012 presidential candidate — said the conservatives were misguided in backing Hoffman over Scozzafava. Here's Gingrich on CNN Radio:

Both parties have to recognize, you can create a center-right majority in America, which we did with Reagan in '80 and we did it again with the "Contract with America" in '94. You can't have a purely right-wing majority; you can't have a purely left-wing majority.

But when it comes to NY 23, Gingrich seems to be in the minority. That was proven again this week, when Tim Pawlenty joined the Hoffman bandwagon. The Minnesota governor and a 2012 hopeful had this to say in a statement:

We cannot send more politicians to Washington who wear the Republican jersey on the campaign trail, but then vote like Democrats in Congress on issues like card check and taxes.

The momentum away from Scozzafava and towards Hoffman was further underlined by the release of a poll Monday that had the Conservative ahead. The poll — paid for by the pro-Hoffman Club for Growth, so view the numbers with some skepticism — had Hoffman at 31 percent, Democratic nominee Bill Owens at 27, and Scozzafava at 20.

The guess here has long been that the Republican split elects Owens. This poll is the first indication I've seen that shows Hoffman with a shot.

A Hoffman win lets the mind drift back to the 1970 Senate race in New York. The Republican incumbent that year, Charles Goodell, was a moderate-to-conservative congressman from the western part of upstate until he was appointed by Gov. Nelson Rockefeller to succeed Robert Kennedy, who was assassinated while campaigning for president. Not long after his Senate appointment, Goodell shifted drastically to the left, especially on the Vietnam War, on which he became a leading opponent. Democrats nominated Rep. Dick Ottinger, a Westchester County liberal. Frustrated conservatives saw to it that Jim Buckley, brother of National Review's William F., became the nominee of the Conservative Party. With Republicans split, Ottinger was favored to win.

But with the tacit backing of the Nixon administration, and especially that of Vice President Agnew — who called Goodell the "Christine Jorgensen of the Republican Party" — Buckley took advantage of what became a liberal split and won the race in a shocker. (It was probably the Nixon-Agnew intent to keep attacking Goodell in order to give him credibility among liberals.)

Could Hoffman duplicate Buckley's feat, nearly 40 years later? Democrats are apparently worried. Roll Call's Emily Cadei reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released a new TV ad attacking Hoffman, "reflecting the belief that he is a growing threat" to Owens.

Election day is one week away.

UPDATE: Roll Call's Cadei reports three more GOP officeholders have come out today for Hoffman: former National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Cole (OK), Sen. Jim DeMint (SC) and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (CA), "a slap in the face to GOP House leaders and the current top brass at the NRCC, all of whom are backing" Scozzafava:

The nods of support from the three Republicans further cements the fact that Hoffman has moved from fringe candidate to a mainstream alternative on the right. In his letter endorsing the Conservative Party nominee, Cole called Hoffman "the only Republican who can win this special election." Democrats seem to have arrived at that viewpoint, too, shifting their fire from Scozzafava to Hoffman and seeking to fundraise off the possibility that he could be elected to Congress.