A Week Away From Mass. Senate Primary, But Who's Paying Attention?

Open Senate seats are pretty much a rarity in Massachusetts. The last one came in 1984, when Paul Tsongas (D) was stepping down after one term. Before that, it was the 1962 race to fill President Kennedy's seat. And now, there's another one about to be filled. But this one lacks both star power and voter excitement.

The '62 contest brought us Ted Kennedy; in '84, John Kerry. The two served together for 24 years until Kennedy's death from brain cancer last summer. Next Tuesday, Democrats will choose from four candidates for their nominee, who will square off against the likely GOP winner, state Sen. Scott Brown, in the Jan. 19 special election. Unless something dramatic happens between now and then, the winner of the Dec. 8 Democratic primary will be the Bay State's next senator.

"Dramatic" is not a word that can be associated with this race. In fact, not much has changed in the months since Kennedy died and former Democratic National Committee chair Paul Kirk (D) was named as the interim replacement. There are four Democratic candidates, but one of them — state Attorney General Martha Coakley — has been perceived as the frontrunner from Day One. As the only statewide elected official as well as the only woman in the race, Coakley has run a cautious but effective campaign, touting her record as the commonwealth's chief law enforcement officer as well as her years as Middlesex County district attorney.

From this blogger's perspective, Coakley has made two errors. One was what has been called her "Sarah Palin moment": Last month, when asked about her lack of foreign policy experience, she began her response with, "I have a sister who lives overseas, and she's been in England and now lives in the Middle East." Some suggested it was pretty close to seeing Russia from her kitchen window, but it didn't seem to have legs — though Republican Brown has used it in his "Call Your Sister" TV ad:

The other instance, which not everyone agrees is a big deal, is whether she showed enough respect for the Kennedy family when she announced her candidacy just a week after Kennedy's death. Stephen Smith Jr., a son of Jean Kennedy Smith (Ted's sister), expressed what might be a widespread feeling within the Kennedy clan when he told the Boston Herald, "She set up a committee six months before my uncle died. There were people on the corner with a huge 'Coakley for Senate' sign two days after his funeral."

Errors, maybe. But there's no evidence they have affected her standing.

Rep. Michael Capuano, the lone member of the Massachusetts congressional delegation running for the Senate seat — more names had been expected — is selling himself as the rightful heir apparent to Ted, talking about his legacy at every opportunity. If Coakley is to be toppled from her frontrunner perch, it is thought that Capuano will be the one to do it. But so far he seems well behind her, along with Alan Khazei, co-founder of the national service program City Year, and Stephen Pagliuca, a co-owner of the Boston Celtics who for the most part is self-financing his campaign.

The four have been in a bunch of debates together, and for the most part all four are on the same page on the issues.

The New York Times' Abby Goodnough writes of rumors that some member of the Kennedy family, perhaps the senator's widow Victoria Reggie Kennedy or his nephew, former Rep. Joe Kennedy, might make an endorsement that could change the race:

But with Ms. Coakley so far ahead in the polls, the [Democratic] strategists said, the Kennedys are unlikely to take a risk on backing anyone else.

Note: The last time a Republican replaced a Democratic senator in Massachusetts was in 1946, when former Sen. Henry Cabot Lodge Jr., who had given up his seat in 1944 to join the war effort, came back and ousted Sen. David Walsh.