There is far less national significance to which party controls the majority of governorships in the country — certainly compared to the House and Senate — but that's not to say that the political stakes are not enormous in most of the 37 gubernatorial races up in 2010. If nothing else, think redistricting.
There are also more problems in putting together a "ratings" chart in the races for governor than there is for the Senate, which I last did on Feb. 16. The main reason: open seats. Twenty-two of the 37 involve races where the incumbent is not running, either because of voluntary retirement or term limits — and so we won't really get a sense of what's going on until the primaries and we see who's running in the general election.
So, with that in mind, here's an early-bird rating of each gubernatorial race up this year.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC (2): Arkansas (Mike Beebe), New Hampshire (John Lynch).
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (4): Maine (open — John Baldacci term limited), Maryland (Martin O'Malley), New York (David Paterson), Oregon (open — Ted Kulongoski term limited).
TOSSUP DEM SEATS (7): Colorado (open — Bill Ritter retiring), Illinois (Pat Quinn), Iowa (Chet Culver), Massachusetts (Deval Patrick), New Mexico (open — Bill Richardson term limited), Ohio (Ted Strickland), Wisconsin (open — Jim Doyle retiring).
EXPECTED DEM LOSSES (6): Kansas (open — Mark Parkinson will not run), Michigan (open — Jennifer Granholm term limited), Oklahoma (open — Brad Henry term limited), Pennsylvania (open — Ed Rendell term limited), Tennessee (open — Phil Bredesen term limited), Wyoming (open — Dave Freudenthal term limited)*.
EXPECTED GOP LOSSES (5): Connecticut (open — Jodi Rell retiring), Hawaii (open — Linda Lingle term limited), Minnesota (open — Tim Pawlenty retiring), Rhode Island (open — Don Carcieri term limited)**, Vermont (open — Jim Douglas retiring).
TOSSUP GOP SEATS (4): California (open — Arnold Schwarzenegger term limited), Florida (open — Charlie Crist leaving to run for Senate), Georgia (open — Sonny Perdue term limited), Nevada (Jim Gibbons).
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (6): Alabama (open — Bob Riley term limited), Alaska (Sean Parnell), Arizona (Jan Brewer), South Carolina (open — Mark Sanford term limited), South Dakota (open — Mike Rounds term limited), Texas (Rick Perry).
SAFE REPUBLICAN (3): Idaho (Butch Otter), Nebraska (Dave Heineman), Utah special (Gary Herbert).
*Wyoming: There is still some uncertainty over whether term limits apply to Gov. Freudenthal. If they do, the GOP should win the seat; if they don't, Freudenthal wins again if he runs.
**Rhode Island: Former GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee is running for governor as an independent and has a shot at winning. But in either event, the Republicans will not retain the governorship.
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