Calif. Poll: Meg Whitman Has Huge Lead In GOP Race, Up 3 Over Jerry Brown

A new Field Poll shows Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO who is seeking the Republican nomination for governor of California, with an enormous lead over her GOP rival, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Whitman has 63 percent of likely Republican voters, to 14 percent for Poizner, a 21-point gain since the last poll in January. The primary is June 8.

Whitman also has a slim lead over state Attorney General Jerry Brown, the former two-term governor who is all but assured of the Democratic nomination. She led Brown by a 46-43 percent margin; in January, Brown led by 10.

The poll matchup of Whitman and Brown shows her with overwhelming GOP support as well as a majority of independents.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, is term-limited.

The Sacramento Bee's Jack Chang notes that Whitman, a billionaire, has "blanketed" the state in TV ads, while Brown "has stayed off the airwaves and not appeared in campaign events." In addition, the poll was conducted "before the impact of Monday's debate" between Whitman and Poizner could be measured; in that debate, Poizner billed himself as the "true conservative" in the race. But Whitman has been hammering Poizner in her TV ads, reminding voters that he contributed to Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000.

Whitman, however, once gave money to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), a liberal. There's no mention of that in her ads.

Sac Bee's Dan Walters reminds the candidates that the state's budget deficit is the key issue in the race:

The next governor, whoever he or she may be, will find the stubborn deficit still awaiting resolution after next January's inauguration — and the conflicts that are very apparent in the Capitol now, largely between spending cuts on one hand and closing tax loopholes or otherwise increasing revenues on the other, will still be evident nine months hence.

Brown, Whitman — and Poizner, for that matter — have been very unspecific on how a chronic, $20 billion gap should be closed. But it's the 800-pound gorilla of Capitol politics, and they can't ignore it forever.

For the record: While there are still months to go before the primary and the general election, the Field Poll's final numbers have been wrong only twice in the past 35 years. In 1982, the poll had Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley (D) leading state Attorney General George Deukmejian (R) in the race for governor (Deuk won by 2), and in 1976, it had Sen. John Tunney (D) ahead of challenger S.I. Hayakawa (R), but Hayakawa won by 4.