Conservative Showdown Today In Texas Primary

Remember the political mood in late 2008/early 2009? A new president, a Democratic revival, the GOP wracked by dissension and disillusion. And Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was the odds on favorite to be the next governor of Texas.

Things have changed both nationally and in the Lone Star State in the year since. The decision by Hutchison, a conservative Republican in the Senate since 1993, to go home and seek the governorship — once seen as a smart move — now looks as a career-ender. Hutchison's record in the Senate may indeed be conservative, but 17 years on Capitol Hill has made her — in the words of the Rick Perry campaign — a Washington insider. And Washington is a four-letter word (actually, it's ten letters) in many parts of the country, including Texas.

She also miscalculated by not resigning her Senate seat, as she once pledged to do. Had she quit, she might have been able to weather the DC insider label.

Perry, who took over when George W. Bush left in December 2000, has been governor of Texas longer than anyone in history. "Perry fatigue," they called it, as recounted in a wonderful piece by NPR's Wade Goodwyn that aired Feb. 24 on Morning Edition. He was held to just 39 percent of the vote against three other candidates in his 2006 re-election bid.

But as conservative fortunes rose in the country, Perry's did too. He probably more than most recognized the potential of the disaffected Tea Party folks. He talked about secession and denounced all-things Washington. Obama, he said, has "socialist beliefs." And somehow, despite Hutchison's years of producing for Texans, she became one of "them." And Perry was one of "us."

Even when a virtual who's who of the Bush Family endorsed Hutchison — including George & Barbara Bush, Dick Cheney, James Baker, Karl Rove and Karen Hughes — the Perry folks dismissed it as insiders backing a fellow insider.

But as red-meat conservative as Perry is, for some, it's not enough. And that's where Debra Medina comes in. A former Ron Paul volunteer, she is the darling of the Tea Party movement: she supports abolishing all property taxes, opposes abortion with no exceptions, wants to abolish the EPA, you name it. But she also speaks the language of those who have all but given up on politicians, and polls show her anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of the vote.

(It remains to be seen if a flap involving her radio interview with Glenn Beck regarding 9/11 and "truthers" has legs. It seems to be resonating more in the national media than at home.)

All polls have Perry leading by double digits; the question is whether he gets the 50 percent-plus-one that avoids an April 13 runoff. My guess is that he and Hutchison advance to the runoff.

No senator has ever gone home to take on a governor of the same party, let alone defeat him.

Oh, yes, there is a Democratic primary too. Former Houston Mayor Bill White is the party's choice and is favored over businessman Farouk Shami.

All 32 members of the state's congressional delegation are seeking re-election. One race to watch: The 18th District, centered in Houston, where Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) faces a primary challenge from Houston City Councilmember Jarvis Johnson. For some, it's a rerun of the 2008 Democratic presidential race, when Jackson Lee backed Hillary Clinton and Johnson supported Barack Obama. (Here's a good Houston Chronicle review of the race.)

Polls close at 7 pm Central time (8 pm ET) in most of the state, though there are precincts in the El Paso area that are in Mountain time and will thus stay open an hour later.