2010 Senate Ratings: 11 Seats Seen As Tossups; GOP With At Least 3 Pickups

Some changes to report since my last Senate ratings on May 27:

Arkansas: This is more a change of Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) status than the race itself.  Lincoln was not expected to survive her primary runoff but did.  Either way, this is still seen as a GOP pickup.

California:  I still don't think Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is going to lose her race, but polling is showing her battle with Carly Fiorina (R) pretty much even steven.  I'm moving this from Democrat Favored to Tossup for now.

FloridaMarco Rubio's (R) months of climbing in the polls seem to have come to a halt; he may now be running slightly behind independent candidate Charlie Crist.  This GOP-held seat has been moved from Republican Favored to Tossup.

Georgia:  This may be a temporary move, but Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) — who still should win re-election — goes from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.

Illinois: Both candidates, Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, have not had the best of months.  Until the dust settles, I'm moving this Democratic seat from GOP pickup to Tossup.

Iowa: As with the situation in Georgia, I can't imagine Sen. Charles Grassley (R) not being returned to office.  But he does have a serious opponent, and so I'm moving this from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.

Wisconsin:  Sen. Russ Feingold (D) was thought to be safe once ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) took himself out of the running.  That may no longer be the case, as polls show surprising strength for the heretofore unknown Republican, Ron Johnson.  This race, at the minimum, goes from Safe Democratic to Democrat Favored.

Here's the latest on all 36 Senate seats up in 2010:

SAFE DEMOCRATIC (6): Hawaii (Daniel Inouye), Maryland (Barbara Mikulski), New York (Charles Schumer), New York special (Kirsten Gillibrand), Oregon (Ron Wyden), Vermont (Patrick Leahy).

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (3): Connecticut (open seat - Chris Dodd retiring),  Washington (Patty Murray), Wisconsin (Russ Feingold).

TOSSUP DEM SEATS (6): California (Barbara Boxer), Colorado (Michael Bennet), Illinois (open seat - Roland Burris will not run), Indiana (open seat - Evan Bayh retiring), Nevada (Harry Reid), Pennsylvania (open seat - Arlen Specter lost primary).

EXPECTED DEM LOSSES/GOP PICKUPS (3): Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln), Delaware special (open seat - Ted Kaufman will not run), North Dakota (open seat - Byron Dorgan retiring).

EXPECTED GOP LOSSES/DEM PICKUPS (0): None at the moment.

TOSSUP GOP SEATS (5): Florida (open seat - George LeMieux will not run), Kentucky (open seat - Jim Bunning retiring), Missouri (open seat - Kit Bond retiring), New Hampshire (open seat - Judd Gregg retiring), Ohio (open seat - George Voinovich retiring).

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (5): Arizona (John McCain), Georgia (Johnny Isakson), Iowa (Charles Grassley), Louisiana (David Vitter), North Carolina (Richard Burr).

SAFE REPUBLICAN (8): Alabama (Richard Shelby), Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Idaho (Mike Crapo), Kansas (open seat — Sam Brownback retiring), Oklahoma (Tom Coburn), South Carolina (Jim DeMint), South Dakota (John Thune), Utah (open seat - Bob Bennett denied renomination).

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