2010 Governor Ratings: 37 Races At Stake, Huge Turnover Anticipated

I haven't done a summary of this year's 37 races for governor in this space since Feb. 23, but there have been only slight changes in the ratings since then.  Republicans have made gains in New Hampshire, where I previously had Gov. John Lynch (D) as safe, and in Iowa, where I had listed Gov. Chet Culver's (D) odds for re-election as a tossup.

Conversely, the GOP has hurt its chances in Colorado, where Gov. Bill Ritter (D) is retiring and where I had it even.

And back in February, two extremely weak incumbents — New York's David Paterson (D) and Nevada's Jim Gibbons (R) — were still running.  Since then, Gibbons lost his primary and Paterson withdrew from contention in advance of a certain defeat in his primary.

With that said, here are my latest ratings:

SAFE DEMOCRATIC (2): Arkansas (Mike Beebe), New York (open — David Paterson retiring).

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (5): Colorado (open — Bill Ritter retiring), Maine (open — John Baldacci term limited), Maryland (Martin O'Malley), New Hampshire (John Lynch), Oregon (open — Ted Kulongoski term limited).

TOSSUP DEM SEATS (5): Illinois (Pat Quinn), Massachusetts (Deval Patrick), New Mexico (open — Bill Richardson term limited), Ohio (Ted Strickland), Wisconsin (open — Jim Doyle retiring).

EXPECTED DEM LOSSES (7): Iowa (Chet Culver), Kansas (open — Mark Parkinson retiring), Michigan (open — Jennifer Granholm term limited), Oklahoma (open — Brad Henry term limited), Pennsylvania (open — Ed Rendell term limited), Tennessee (open — Phil Bredesen term limited), Wyoming (open — Dave Freudenthal term limited).

EXPECTED GOP LOSSES (5): Connecticut (open — Jodi Rell retiring), Hawaii (open — Linda Lingle term limited), Minnesota (open — Tim Pawlenty retiring), Rhode Island (open — Don Carcieri term limited)*, Vermont (open — Jim Douglas retiring).

TOSSUP GOP SEATS (3): California (open — Arnold Schwarzenegger term limited), Florida (open — Charlie Crist leaving to run for Senate), Georgia (open — Sonny Perdue term limited),

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (7): Alabama (open — Bob Riley term limited), Alaska (Sean Parnell), Arizona (Jan Brewer), Nevada (open — Jim Gibbons defeated in primary), South Carolina (open — Mark Sanford term limited), South Dakota (open — Mike Rounds term limited), Texas (Rick Perry).

SAFE REPUBLICAN (3): Idaho (Butch Otter), Nebraska (Dave Heineman), Utah special (Gary Herbert).

*Rhode Island: Former GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee is running for governor as an independent and has a shot at winning. But in either event, the Republicans will not retain the governorship.

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