Lou Cannon: Reagan Could Have Won A 3rd But Wouldn't Have Run

If you've been following our conversation about the effect of the 22nd Amendment on President Reagan, you'll know that there is a difference of opinion as to whether The Gipper (1) could have won a third term had he been eligible and (2) would have run if he could.

Lou Cannon, the gold standard of Reagan biographers, weighs in:

Reagan's mid-November Gallup rating in 1988 was 57 percent and his December rating 63. He was higher in other polls, notably CBS-NY Times. When he left office, he had higher ratings than any predecessor except those who died in office and Eisenhower. But I think poll ratings are beside the point in answering this question.

Reagan never had an intention of seeking a third term. He believed that two terms were enough for president--or in any office if we're talking about four-year terms.

When Gov. Reagan finished his second term in California in 1974, some members of his kitchen cabinet wanted him to go for a third term; others favored a run for the Senate against a vulnerable , Democratic incumbent [Alan Cranston]. Reagan turned them down. He was on record as saying that two terms should be the limit for a governor or a president. I know he said it to me but he also said it publicly.

Your questioner is probably right in saying that Reagan could have won a third term. Indeed, I think one of the reasons that George H.W. Bush ran into trouble was that he didn't realize that a number of the people who voted for him were in effect voting for a third Reagan term. But Reagan would never have sought a third term. He was a few weeks away from his 78th birthday when he finished his second and he was eager to get home to California. I was one of a handful of reporters who accompanied him on his flight home on Jan. 20, 1989, and he was a happy man, not at all reluctant to relinquish presidential power.

3:39 PM ET | 06-19-2009 | permalink

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Here's Your Watergate Trivia Question

As you know, it was 37 years ago today that a break-in at the Democratic National Committee -- then located in the Watergate office building -- began the unraveling of a president.

A year later, the Senate Watergate Committee was established to get to the bottom of the story, and a year after that, the House Judiciary Committee began hearings to weigh the impeachment of President Nixon.

The question: Name the still-serving members of Congress who were on those committees.

(You can use the comments field below.)

3:21 PM ET | 06-17-2009 | permalink

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Political Junkie + Former Members Of Congress = Match Made In Heaven

I've told this story once before, but it bears repeating.

Many, many years ago, when I was growing up in a small town called the Bronx, there was a knock on my door. It was a bunch of my friends, and they wanted me to come out with them, but I was having none of it.

"Sorry," I said, even though I wasn't really sorry. "I need to stay home and watch Wayne Thornton fight Jose Torres." I was a big boxing fan back then, and Wayne Thornton vs. Jose Torres was going to be a doozy.

And why do I, to this day, remember Wayne Thornton vs. Jose Torres?

"Are you sure you can't come?" my friends asked. "We're going to Shea Stadium to buy tickets to see The Beatles."

"Some other time," I said. "I'm really excited about seeing Wayne Thornton vs. Jose Torres."

And now you know why to this day I remember Wayne Thornton vs. Jose Torres.

I bring up this sad, pathetic tale not to remind you of the errors of my ways -- regrets? I've made a few -- but to tell you that, as an adult, there are some things in life I will never miss.

And that's the annual meeting of the U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress.

For political junkies like myself, for those of us who cherish Congress (the good and the bad), it's an opportunity to gab with former senators and representatives about their past lives, their campaigns, their memories, their ups and downs, their victories and heartbreaks. Even a conversation or two about their, um, campaign buttons.

As a baseball fan, I find that you can't talk about Pujols and Jeter and Halladay without talking about Spahn and Mantle and Mays. Similarly, you can't talk about the campaigns of today without talking about those of yesterday. And that's what happens at these meetings.

Later this afternoon, I will once again be a panelist at a meeting of the FMC. I will dutifully report my observations in a forthcoming post. But only after I've calmed down.

11:30 AM ET | 06-16-2009 | permalink

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Specter Helped Defeat Sessions In 1986 Judiciary Vote

With Arlen Specter's defection to the Democratic Party, the new ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee is Jeff Sessions of Alabama. In a deal worked out yesterday by Senate Republicans, Sessions will be the ranking GOPer through 2010, when Charles Grassley of Iowa will assume the post.

Sessions will play a key role in formulating the GOP strategy on whomever President Obama names to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice David Souter. A strong conservative, Sessions' ideology is nothing like the man he replaces, Pennsylvania's Specter.

Sessions, of course, has a long history with the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Continue reading "Specter Helped Defeat Sessions In 1986 Judiciary Vote" »

11:45 AM ET | 05-05-2009 | permalink

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I Know Dick Gregory, But Who Is Mark Lane?

Here's a question from Nancy Hoffman of Worcester, Mass.:

I thought of you today [March 14] when I read a profile about Dick Gregory in the New York Times. They had this wonderful replica of a dollar bill with Gregory's picture on it, a memento from his campaign for president in 1968. On the fake bill, it had one signature that read "Dick Gregory President," and another that read "Mark Lane Vice President." Who is/was Mark Lane?

Dick Gregory, the activist/comedian, made a half-serious bid for president in '68 as the candidate of the Freedom and Party -- not to be confused with the Peace and Freedom Party, which ran another black activist, Eldridge Cleaver, for president that year. On the ballot in eight states, Gregory received 47,133 votes.

When he was picked to run for VP, Mark Lane was (and is -- he's still alive) a white left-wing activist best known for his books dismissing the conclusion of the Warren Commission that a lone gunman assassinated President John Kennedy. Lane served one term in the New York state Legislature, where he worked to end the death penalty. He often demonstrated against segregation in the South and was arrested once, in 1961. He ran for Congress in 1962 from Manhattan but lost the Democratic primary. He also, at various times, represented Marguerita Oswald (the alleged assassin's mother) and the Peoples Temple of cult leader Jim Jones in Guyana, even in the wake of the 1978 murder of Rep. Leo Ryan (D-CA) and subsequent mass murder/suicide in Jonestown. Throughout the 1960s and '70s, he was a leading opponent of the war in Vietnam.

11:13 AM ET | 04-09-2009 | permalink

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What Happened To Appointed Senators In The Past Half-Century?

Not every gubernatorial appointment of a senator is as rocky or controversial as the recent situations in Illinois or New York. But nor do they always survive their next chance to stay in office.

Below, a list of the last time in the past half-century each state had an appointed senator and how that appointee fared in the next election:

ALABAMA -- Maryon Allen (D)
Appointed: 6/8/78 to replace her late husband, Sen. Jim Allen.
Next election: Defeated in 1978 Democratic primary runoff by Donald Stewart.

ALASKA -- Lisa Murkowski (R)
Appointed: 12/20/02 by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, who had resigned his Senate seat after he was elected governor.
Next election: Elected in 2004, defeating former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).

ARIZONA -- none

ARKANSAS -- Kaneaster Hodges (D)
Appointed: 12/10/77 to replace the late Sen. John McClellan (D).
Next election: Did not run.

CALIFORNIA -- John Seymour (R)
Appointed: 1/10/91 by Gov. Pete Wilson, who resigned his Senate seat after he was elected governor.
Next election: Defeated in 1992 by Dianne Feinstein (D).

COLORADO -- none

CONNECTICUT -- none

DELAWARE -- none

FLORIDA -- none

GEORGIA -- Zell Miller (D)
Appointed: 7/27/00 to replace the late Sen. Paul Coverdell (R).
Next election: Elected in 2000, defeating former Sen. Mack Mattingly (R).

HAWAII -- Daniel Akaka (D)
Appointed: 5/16/90 to replace the late Sen. Spark Matsunaga (D).
Next election: Elected in 1990, defeating Rep. Pat Saiki (R). Re-elected three times since and still serves.

IDAHO -- Len Jordan (R)
Appointed: 8/6/62 to replace the late Sen. Henry Dworshak (R).
Next election: Elected in 1962, defeating Rep. Gracie Pfost (D). Re-elected again.

ILLINOIS -- Ralph Tyler Smith (R)
Appointed: 9/17/69 to replace the late Sen. Everett Dirksen (R).
Next election: Defeated in 1970 by Adlai Stevenson III (D).

INDIANA -- Dan Coats (R)
Appointed: 1/3/89 to replace Sen. Dan Quayle (R), who was elected vice president.
Next election: Elected in 1990, defeating Baron Hill. Re-elected again.

IOWA -- none

KANSAS -- Sheila Frahm (R)
Appointed: 6/11/96 to replace Sen. Bob Dole (R), who resigned in pursuit of his presidential bid.
Next election: Defeated in 1996 GOP primary by Rep. Sam Brownback.

KENTUCKY -- none

LOUISIANA -- Elaine Edwards (D)
Appointed: 8/1/72 by her husband, Gov. Edwin Edwards, to replace the late Sen. Allen Ellender (D).
Next election: Did not run.

MAINE -- George Mitchell (D)
Appointed: 5/17/80 to replace Sen. Ed Muskie (D), who became secretary of state.
Next election: Elected in 1982, defeating Rep. David Emery (R). Re-elected again.

MARYLAND -- none

MASSACHUSETTS -- Benjamin Smith II (D)
Appointed: 12/27/60 to replace Sen. John Kennedy (D), his former college roommate, who was elected president.
Next election: Did not run.

MICHIGAN -- Robert Griffin (R)
Appointed: 5/11/66 to replace the late Sen. Pat McNamara (D).
Next election: Elected in 1966, defeating former Gov. Soapy Williams (D). Re-elected again.

MINNESOTA -- Dean Barkley (I)
Appointed: 11/5/02 to fill the final two months of the term of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D).
Next election: Did not run.

MISSISSIPPI -- Roger Wicker (R)
Appointed: 12/31/07 to replace Sen. Trent Lott (R), who resigned.
Next election: Elected in 2008, defeating former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D).

MISSOURI -- Jean Carnahan (D)
Appointed: 1/3/01 to replace her husband, former Gov. Mel Carnahan (D), who was elected to the Senate in 2000 two weeks after he perished in a plane crash.
Next election: Defeated in 2002 by former Rep. Jim Talent (R).

MONTANA -- Paul Hatfield (D)
Appointed: 1/22/78 to replace the late Sen. Lee Metcalf (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1978 Dem primary by Rep. Max Baucus (D).

NEBRASKA -- David Karnes (R)
Appointed: 3/13/87 to replace the late Sen. Ed Zorinsky (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1988 by former Gov. Bob Kerrey (D).

NEVADA -- none

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Norris Cotton (R)
Appointed: 8/8/75. OK, this is a long story. Cotton had retired in 1974 after 20 years in the Senate. But when the race to replace him went months without being resolved, the governor appointed him to fill the seat until a winner could be determined. Cotton kept the seat warm for five weeks. If that one doesn't really count, then a better example would be Maurice Murphy (R), who was appointed 12/7/61 to replace the late Sen. Styles Bridges (R).
Next election: Murphy was defeated in the 1962 GOP primary by Rep. Perkins Bass.

NEW JERSEY -- Robert Menendez (D)
Appointed: 1/18/06 by Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who resigned his Senate seat after being elected governor.
Next election: Elected in 2006, defeating Thomas Kean Jr. (R).

NEW MEXICO -- Edwin Mechem (R)
Appointed: 11/30/62, essentially by himself -- he resigned as governor and was appointed to the Senate by his gubernatorial successor -- to replace the late Sen. Dennis Chavez (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1964 by Rep. Joseph Montoya (D).

NEW YORK -- Charles Goodell (R)
Appointed: 9/10/68 to replace the late Sen. Robert Kennedy (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1970 by James Buckley (Conservative).

NORTH CAROLINA -- James Broyhill (R)
Appointed: 7/14/86 to replace the late Sen. John East (R).
Next election: Defeated in 1986 by former Gov. Terry Sanford (D).

NORTH DAKOTA -- Jocelyn Burdick (D)
Appointed: 9/12/92 to replace her husband, the late Sen. Quentin Burdick (D).
Next election: Did not run.

OHIO -- Howard Metzenbaum (D)
Appointed: 1/4/74 to replace Sen. William Saxbe (R), who became U.S. attorney general.
Next election: Defeated in 1974 Dem primary by John Glenn.

OKLAHOMA -- J. Howard Edmondson (D)
Appointed: 1/7/63, essentially by himself -- he resigned as governor and was appointed to the Senate by his gubernatorial successor -- to replace the late Sen. Robert Kerr (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1964 Dem primary runoff by Fred Harris.

OREGON -- Hall Lusk (D)
Appointed: 3/16/60 to replace the late Sen. Richard Neuberger (D).
Next election: Did not run.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Harris Wofford (D)
Appointed: 5/9/91 to replace the late Sen. John Heinz (R).
Next election: Elected in 1991, defeating former Gov. Richard Thornburgh (R).

RHODE ISLAND -- Lincoln Chafee (R)
Appointed: 11/4/99 to replace his father, the late Sen. John Chafee (R).
Next election: Elected in 2000, defeating Bob Weygand (D).

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Donald Russell (D)
Appointed: 4/22/65, essentially by himself -- he resigned as governor and was appointed to the Senate by his gubernatorial successor -- to replace the late Sen. Olin Johnston (D).
Next election: Defeated in 1966 Dem primary by former Gov. Fritz Hollings.

SOUTH DAKOTA -- Joe Bottum (R)
Appointed: 7/9/62 to replace the late Sen. Francis Case (R).
Next election: Defeated in 1962 by former Rep. George McGovern (D).

TENNESSEE -- Harlan Mathews (D)
Appointed: 1/2/93 to replace Sen. Al Gore, who was elected vice president.
Next election: Did not run.

TEXAS -- Bob Krueger (D)
Appointed: 1/21/93 to replace Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D), who became Treasury secretary.
Next election: Defeated in 1993 by Kay Bailey Hutchison (R).

UTAH -- none

VERMONT -- Robert Stafford (R)
Appointed: 9/16/71 to replace the late Sen. Winston Prouty (R)
Next election: Elected in 1972, defeating Randolph Major (D). Re-elected two more times.

VIRGINIA -- Harry Byrd Jr. (D)
Appointed: 11/12/65 to replace his father, the late Sen. Harry Byrd (D).
Next election: Elected in 1966, defeating Lawrence Traylor (R). Re-elected two more times.

WASHINGTON -- Dan Evans (R)
Appointed: 9/12/83 to replace the late Sen. Henry Jackson (D).
Next election: Elected in 1983, defeating Rep. Mike Lowry (D).

WEST VIRGINIA -- none

WISCONSIN -- none

WYOMING -- John Barrasso (R)
Appointed: 6/22/07 to replace the late Sen. Craig Thomas (R).
Next election: Elected in 2008, defeating Nick Carter (D).

RECAP: Remember, this is not a list of all the instances where senators were appointed in the past half-century. This is the last time each state had such an occurrence. With that in mind, here are the totals (12 states did not have senators appointed in that time period):

Appointed senators who did not run: 7
Appointed senators who lost their next election: 16 (7 lost in the primary and 9 lost in the general election)
Appointed senators who won their next election: 15

10:40 AM ET | 01-28-2009 | permalink

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Trivia Question On Presidential Daughters/Candidates

Earlier in the week, in the aftermath of Caroline Kennedy's expressing interest in a Senate seat, we asked you who the first presidential daughter to run for office was.

The answer: Maureen Reagan, daughter of Ronald, who sought the Republican nomination for the Senate from California in 1982. She lost to Pete Wilson, who went on to win the seat vacated by S.I. Hayakawa (R).

More important, the first correct responder: Adam Larsen of Byron, Ill. The prize: his state's U.S. Senate seat!

Congratulations Adam. Patrick Fitzgerald will be calling you shortly.

5:45 PM ET | 12-18-2008 | permalink

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The Shoe As A Campaign Metaphor

To paraphrase his relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin, President Bush looked into the eyes of an Iraqi journalist and saw his sole.

It was a dramatic moment on Sunday as Bush and Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki held a news conference in Baghdad. It was a farewell of sorts for Bush, who made a surprise visit to the country to celebrate the newly adopted security agreement between the two countries that would result in the withdrawal of all U.S. troops by the end of 2011.

Not long into the presser, an Iraqi journalist stood up and threw a shoe at Bush — the ultimate insult in Iraq — and shouted, "This is a gift from the Iraqis. This is the farewell kiss, you dog! ... This is from the widows, the orphans and those who were killed in Iraq!" The journalist missed his intended target, and missed a second time when he threw his other shoe. Bush made light of the incident, though it clearly shook up U.S. and Iraqi officials.

(The fact that Bush was still standing when the second shoe came at him raises a serious question about his security detail, but that is for another day.)

This may very well prove to be a defining moment for Bush and his war policy, but it's not the first time a shoe became a metaphor in politics.

Khrushchev. On Oct. 12, 1960, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev disrupted a U.N. General Assembly session by repeatedly banging his shoe on the desk.

Stevenson. During the 1952 presidential campaign, Democratic nominee Adlai Stevenson was photographed with his legs crossed, showing a huge hole in the bottom of his shoe. The Eisenhower (R) campaign responded with ridicule and — far more important — buttons, suggesting what a Stevenson victory might lead to. The Stevenson camp responded with buttons of its own, and a campaign song for Adlai led off with, "I'd rather have a man with a hole in his shoe than a hole in everything he says."

Marcos. In 1986, Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and his family — including wife Imelda — fled the country in advance of a coup that was about to topple him. Among the extravagances left behind were an estimated 1,000-plus pair of shoes owned by Imelda.

Powell. Shortly after Illinois Secretary of State Paul Powell (D) died in 1970, some $800,000 in cash was found in shoeboxes (and other receptacles). Ever since, "Powell" and "shoebox" have been metaphors for corruption in Illinois politics. Thank goodness that era is long gone.

As long as we're on the subject, we can't ignore Jim Shue, who was the Republican nominee for Congress in New Jersey's 11th District in 1970. He lost in a landslide to Democratic incumbent Joseph Minish.

And there's also Richard Celeste, a Democrat elected governor of Ohio in 1982. Yes, he proved to be a "shoe-in," but this button refers to the fact that he picked state Rep. Myrl Shoemaker as his running mate for lieutenant governor.

Note: I received an e-mail from Larry Mattivi of Broomes Island, Md., suggesting a Political Junkie feature on famous shoes in history. But I swear I thought of it first!

9:51 AM ET | 12-15-2008 | permalink

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Governors And Their Lieutenants

Today, on NPR's All Things Considered, Pat Quinn, the Democratic lieutenant governor of Illinois, says he hasn't spoken to Rod Blagojevich, the Democratic governor of Illinois, since August of 2007.

Sounds like they're married.

But what is it with governors and their lieutenants? The problem is that many are elected together in what amounts to shotgun marriages. Sometimes they run together as a team, but sometimes they are separately nominated or even elected. And whether or not they start off as partners, they don't always end up that way.

That's certainly the case in Illinois. As it was, before the latest scandal broke, the feeling all along has been that it was the state attorney general, Lisa Madigan — not LG Quinn — who was planning to take on the governor in the 2010 Democratic primary. But the case of lieutenant governors hoping to move up by challenging their bosses in the primary are not completely unusual.

In 1980, Montana Gov. Tom Judge was defeated in the Democratic primary by his own LG — Ted Schwinden.

Texas Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes challenged his fellow Democrat, Gov. Preston Smith, in the 1972 primary. Barnes finished two times better than Smith, but that wasn't good enough. Smith placed fourth in the primary and Barnes third — a primary won by Dolph Briscoe, who went on to win the governorship.

And one famous contest in which a lieutenant governor of one party ousted a governor of another came in Minnesota in 1962, when Karl Rolvaag (D) defeated Elmer Andersen (R) by 91 votes — an election that was eventually decided by the state Supreme Court.

According to the National Lieutenant Governors Association, govs and LGs run together as a team in 24 states: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, and Wisconsin.

Of those states, seven nominate gov and LG candidates separately: Alaska, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin.

Eighteen states hold separate gov and LG elections: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

Seven states have no lieutenant governors: Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, West Virginia, and Wyoming. In Tennessee, the speaker of the state Senate is also the lieutenant governor, but there is no election in Tennessee for LG. New Jersey will elect its first LG next year.

2:25 PM ET | 12-11-2008 | permalink

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