To recap: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent running on the Republican and Independence Party lines, won a third term on Nov. 3, edging City Comptroller William Thompson (D).

The next election is scheduled for 2013.

And that race should begin in about, oh, I'd say, now.

Assuming they don't once again change the term-limits law and allow him to run for a fourth time -- a very fair assumption -- this will be Bloomberg's last term. And for those Democrats looking at 2013, having Bloomberg in office (rather than Thompson) "may actually better position themselves" for the next campaign, writes Sara Kugler of the Associated Press.

Here's an early-bird look -- a very early-bird look -- at potential candidates for 2013.

Thompson -- He gave up his post as comptroller to run this year, but finishing within five points was better than anyone expected. Don't be surprised if you see a lot of "Don't Blame Me / I Voted For Thompson" signs in the next couple of years.

John Liu -- elected comptroller in 2009. Would be the city's first Asian-American mayoral candidate. Click here to see my list of NYC comptrollers who have run for mayor since World War II.

Bill de Blasio -- elected city's public advocate in 2009. A former campaign aide to Hillary Clinton, de Blasio knows the in's and out's of political strategy. I expect to see him emerge as the leading Bloomberg critic in the months and years ahead.

Christine Quinn -- the city council speaker. She is close with Bloomberg which was once, but is no longer, a plus for her. Her numbers in this September's primary were less than impressive.

Scott Stringer -- re-elected this year as Manhattan borough president. As with Quinn, Stringer backed Bloomberg's successful effort to change the term-limits law. He briefly flirted with challenging Senate appointee Kirsten Gillibrand in next year's Democratic primary.

Anthony Weiner -- The Brooklyn congressman ran for mayor in 2005 and lost the Democratic primary. He was ready to run again this year, but ultimately decided against it once Bloomberg made it clear he was not leaving and would spend whatever it took to win. From the beginning, the mayor's camp expected Weiner to run and relished the fight, sending out attack broadsides at every opportunity. The feeling here was that Weiner was always afraid of getting his clock cleaned by Bloomberg. But in the wake of the closer-than-expected election earlier this month, Weiner is now going around telling everyone that he could have won. Maybe yes, maybe no. You can't win if you don't run.

Note: Democrats have lost four consecutive mayoral races in New York for the first time in the city's history. If ever they were going to take back City Hall, it would be in 2013. And that's why the Democratic field could be huge.

South Carolina First Lady makes a political statement but doesn't embarrass her party or her state.

No, said Mark Sanford, the Republican governor of South Carolina. I wasn't hiking on the Appalachian Trail, as I told my staff to say when I was missing for a week last June. I was having an affair with my mistress in Argentina.

You lie, yelled Joe Wilson, the Republican representative from South Carolina's Second Congressional District, when President Obama, in an address to a Joint Session of Congress last September, said that no Democratic health-care proposal would cover illegal immigrants.

Two instances where South Carolina Republicans found themselves, willingly or not, on the front pages of every newspaper in the country. The party's reputation took another hit last month when two GOP county chairmen wrote an article in the Orangeburg Times and Democrat comparing Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) fiscal prudence to that of "Jews who are wealthy." DeMint himself said the comments of the two, Edwin Merwin of the Bamberg Co. GOP and James Ulmer of the Orangeburg Co. GOP were "thoughtless and hurtful." Here's the quote:

There is a saying that the Jews who are wealthy got that way not by watching dollars, but instead by taking care of the pennies and the dollars taking care of themselves. By not using earmarks to fund projects for South Carolina and instead using actual bills, DeMint is watching our nation's pennies and trying to preserve our country's wealth and our economy's viability to give all an opportunity to succeed.

Whether it was anti-Semitism or just stupid stereotyping, it was just the latest embarrassment for a state party that has become a force in national politics the past three decades.

Here's some political news from the Palmetto State GOP that hasn't led to a retraction or an explanation: First Lady Jenny Sanford, who won near-universal admiration for her refusal to "stand by her man" in the wake of her husband's sex scandal -- she and her four kids moved out of the governor's mansion -- has made an endorsement in next year's Republican primary to succeed her term-limited husband. She is backing state Rep. Nikki Haley, a former Mark Sanford ally who has broken with the gov in the wake of his scandal. Jenny Sanford calls Haley "principled, conservative, tough and smart."

This is an endorsement that could make a difference, says Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson: "Some folks are questioning if (Haley's) a credible candidate, but Jenny Sanford carries some weight. It sends a signal (to Sanford supporters) that you might not be wasting your vote."

But Haley -- in a position not unlike other female candidates -- badly trails her rivals in raising money. According to John O'Connor of The State newspaper, she has about $278,000 cash on hand, well behind the money frontrunners, U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett and state Attorney General Henry McMaster, who have more than $1 million each on hand, and less than two other Republican candidates, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and state Sen. Larry Grooms. And the battle for money could limit the effectiveness of Jenny Sanford's endorsement, says consultant Chip Felkel:

It's great, it's a high-profile endorsement, but does it translate into fundraising?

The State's O'Connor also notes that S.C. "has among the fewest elected women in the country."

Seattle has coffee, Ken Griffey Jr. and rain. It also, finally, has a new mayor. But why haven't we talked about that race? That's what Carl Malmstrom of Chicago wants to know:

As always, I love both your blog and "It's All Politics", which continues to be the highlight of my podcast-downloading week. I noticed last week amongst all the sturm und drang over N.J., Va., NY-23 and the NYC mayoral race, that almost nothing got said about the Seattle mayoral race, which I think is one of the more interesting races of 2009.

It looks like Mike McGinn will likely eke out a victory over Joe Mallahan, and McGinn wasn't even expected to survive the primary this year. As you're probably aware, the current mayor of Seattle, Greg Nickels, came in third in the nonpartisan primary, and McGinn, who's been underfunded, recently switched sides on an important-to-Seattle road-building issue. What makes this the most interesting to me is that, while there was certainly an anti-incumbent mood in Seattle this year, it manifested in electing the most liberal of the three top contenders, none of whom would be mistaken for moderates, much less conservatives. In any event, everything I've heard about the race has been fascinating, especially given that Seattle, while certainly more liberal than it was when I lived there in the 1980s, still has a greater bipartisan recent history than, say, Chicago or San Francisco.

It was an interesting race indeed. As you surmised, Mallahan conceded the race on Monday evening, making McGinn the next mayor. He won by 4,939 votes out of about 190,000 cast, a landslide when you compare the numbers to what it looked like on Wednesday, when the difference was just 462 votes. Seattle holds mail-in elections, one reason for the slow count.

Mallahan, a vice president for T-Mobile, spent heavily on his own campaign, one, because he was a political unknown, and two, he wanted to be on a level playing field with Nickels, the incumbent, whom he expected to face in the runoff. When Nickels finished third in the August primary, knocking him out of the race, Mallahan suddenly became the establishment choice, getting the endorsements of most of the labor unions, business community and Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire in the process.

For his part, McGinn, a former Sierra Club activist, ran a passionate, grass-roots effort, relying on volunteers, and effectively painted Mallahan as a conservative businessman, whether or not he truly was. He was outspent three-to-one.

The Seattle Times editorial page explains the result:

Seattle voters are in a testy mood. They turned down the practical, stay-the-course mayoral candidate, Joe Mallahan, and opted for the anti-establishment, in-your-face change agent, Mike McGinn. He is the new mayor of Seattle.

Some people thought McGinn irreparably harmed his candidacy by changing course on his centerpiece issue -- his rabid opposition to the deep-bore tunnel to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct became acquiescence. But voters saw him differently.

Yes, they know he opposes the project. But after the City Council's unanimous vote in favor of the tunnel and McGinn's subsequent statement he would not stand in its way, voters read that as more nuanced than an opportunistic flip-flop.

The ramifications of the deep recession, and natural angst about expensive projects in such a climate, made voters feel McGinn will fight hard to protect Seattleites from too much local spending associated with the tunnel.

After many one- or two-term mayoral stints, voters feel more comfortable with the candidate most likely to deliver basic services.

One fact may have resonated more than others: McGinn's campaign had limited professional staff and hundreds of volunteers. He was already showing he could conduct business without a lot of fuss and spending.

Besides, Seattleites are naturally drawn to nonconformists.

McGinn is likable and smart -- and a bit of a hell raiser. He doesn't align himself with business interests. Some of his closest allies are in the Sierra Club, where he was local chapter leader.

The new mayor has much to do in the months ahead. He needs to assemble a team that can filter some of his overly ambitious ideas. Early in the campaign, for example, he raised the possibility of a takeover of Seattle schools. He has since moderated that position. Perhaps in time the city will assume a larger role, but there is a city to manage first and a steep learning curve ahead.

Just back from a post-election visit to Mom in Florida -- she's fine, thanks for asking! -- it's now time to announce the winner of our 2009 Election Contest!

I compiled a list of key elections -- everything from the two gubernatorial and two congressional races, plus the same-sex marriage referenda in Maine, down to a handful of mayoral contests. You had to pick the winners in each.

But there was also a scoring system involved: ten points each for the gov. races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the special congressional race in upstate New York. Five points each for the California 10 House race, the Maine referendum, and the New York City mayoral election. And one point each went to the other mayoral races.

We had a mechanism for breaking a tie, should that have been necessary.

It wasn't.

Not only was Joe Selby of Nashua, N.H., the winner -- he got every one right. He finished with 47 points ... closely followed by Maureen Hogan of Phoenix, Ariz., with 46 points. Joe wins a pair of 1976 presidential campaign buttons from President Ford and Jimmy Carter.

The average score, as tabulated by NPR's Eyder Peralta, was 57 percent -- an "F" if you're keeping score at home. Only 28 percent of the responders correctly picked Chris Christie in New Jersey, while 78 percent knew Bob McDonnell would win in Virginia.

Here's how everyone finished. (You can find your own score by clicking "control F".)

A truly historic night: I can say with complete assurance that they were the first off-year elections ever held since I began blogging at NPR.

Ok, so maybe that wasn't the message you were looking for. But was there a message that came out of yesterday's results? I'm not sure if there was, though that hasn't kept people from telling us what it meant.

Here are some observations.

(But first, I hope you got to participate in, or at least check out, our live blogging last night. We took questions about every race imaginable, from 7 pm until about 11:20 pm -- a very successful effort, I thought, one that will be duplicated in the primaries and elections to follow. And we have further analysis in our "It's All Politics" podcast (up later today) and the regular Wednesday edition of the Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation.)

First, with two Democratic-held gubernatorial races up for grabs and both going to the Republicans, it's ridiculous to say that it wasn't a big night for the GOP. It was. Focusing on whether it represented a "defeat" for President Obama -- as Republicans say it was and Democrats say it wasn't -- misses the point completely. You know that if there was a Republican in the White House and two Republican governorships were lost to the Democrats, the arguments would be reversed.

But it is a defeat for the Democratic Party. They were on a roll in Virginia, having won two successive gubernatorial contests and replacing two GOP senators with Democrats in the past two elections. Obama captured the state last year, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. You're not going to tell me that a GOP sweep of all three races in the Old Dominion -- governor, lt. gov. and atty general -- doesn't send a message about which way Virginia is heading. At least not in 2009. Yes, Creigh Deeds may not have been a great candidate (and, conversely, Bob McDonnell ran a very disciplined and effective race). But coming out of last June's primary, Democrats were insisting that Deeds was exactly the kind of Democrat who could keep the party's winning streak alive. And he obviously was not.

Democrats also complained that McDonnell is really a right-wing ideologue masquerading as a moderate. What that really meant was that they were frustrated in their inability to lay a glove on him. The fact that independent voters -- so crucial to the Obama victory last year -- went overwhelmingly for the Republican says volumes about what really happened last night.

The results in Virginia were not a surprise, but they were in New Jersey. True, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) was deeply unpopular for most of his four years in office, as his promises to improve the state's economic conditions failed to materialize. True, Corzine trailed his GOP opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, by double digits for much of the year. But when the polls tightened in October, making the race a dead heat, there was a sense that the momentum was swinging Corzine's way. And yet, in the end, that wasn't the case. And, like Virginia, independents went overwhelmingly for Christie, despite the well-financed effort by Corzine to tear him apart in TV ads.

It's the first time since 1993 that Republicans took both governorships away from the Democrats.

But whatever GOPtimism Republicans felt in winning the pair was tempered by the loss of the historically Republican congressional seat in upstate New York. The move by Obama, whether he knew it or not, to pluck Rep. John McHugh (R) out of his House seat and make him his secretary of the army was a brilliant move. It forced the GOP to spend heavily on a seat that they haven't lost since the 1800s, and it exposed ideological fault lines that could jeopardize other Republican seats -- think Florida Senate, 2010, with the primary involving establishment favorite Charlie Crist, the outgoing governor, and conservative hero Marco Rubio. Of the 29 congressional districts in New York, the GOP now holds two -- the fewest in history.

Another surprise came in the race for mayor of New York City. The fact that Mayor Michael Bloomberg was re-elected was never in doubt. But for someone who pumped in an estimated $100 million of his own fortune in what was perceived to be a routine effort against City Comptroller William Thompson, and then to come away with an unimpressive 51 percent victory was a shocker. Pollsters, who had Bloomberg up by some 15 points or so, never saw the building voter resentment over how Bloomberg overturned term limits to suit his third-term needs.

Much more on the 2009 races in today's Talk of the Nation.

A programing note:

I'll be joining forces with our friends at NPR's "other" blog, The Two-Way, starting at 7 p.m. Eastern time, to "live-blog" election results from Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Maine, California, Houston, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Miami and other voting places across the nation.

We'll embed a "Cover It Live" box in both blogs so that you can see what The Two-Way's Frank James and I are reporting -- and comment as well.

Here are the poll closing times for the elections we are most closely watching tonight (all times Eastern):

7 p.m. Virginia governor -- Polls continue to show Bob McDonnell (R) with a sizable lead over Creigh Deeds (D) -- anywhere from between 11 and 18 points -- so we may know this one pretty early. Republicans are hoping to sweep the two other statewide offices (lt. gov. and attorney general). Gov. Tim Kaine, who also doubles as the Democratic national chairman, is limited to one term, the only state in the nation that has such limits.

8 p.m. New Jersey -- This may be the most closely watched race of the right because it may prove to be the closest race. Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Republican challenger Chris Christie are locked into a tight contest. Aside from whether it's a referendum on Corzine's stewardship of the state the past four years or on Christie's fitness as the alternative, there is the question of what percentage of the vote will go to the independent on the ballot, Chris Daggett. By most indications, his numbers, once thought to be approaching 20 percent, have fallen back drastically as we get closer to election day.

For a blue state, New Jersey has had its share of close gubernatorial elections in the past, starting with Tom Kean's (R) 1,700-vote victory over Jim Florio (D) in 1981, as well as the two narrow wins by Republican Christie Whitman in the 1990s. This race could be equally close, so we may not know the answer early.

9 p.m. New York -- The contest in upstate New York is one of two special congressional races in the nation on Tuesday, and one everyone is watching. It's for the 23rd CD seat vacated by now-Army Secretary John McHugh (and no matter how this one turns out, how brilliant was it of President Obama to cause this GOP civil war by plucking McHugh out of the House?) Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, found herself under attack by conservatives for her positions on abortion, same-sex marriage and the Obama economic policies. That led to an increase in support for the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, who picked up the endorsement of national Republicans such as Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Fred Thompson and a whole bunch of incumbent members of the House and Senate. The betting for the longest time was that the split among Republicans would ultimately give this seat to Bill Owens, a Democrat, in a district that hasn't elected a Democrat since there's been a Republican Party. But on Saturday, faced with disappearing polling numbers and an almost non-existent bank account, Scozzafava ended her candidacy (her name remains on the ballot). On Sunday, she endosed Democrat Owens. Latest polling has Hoffman up, but it's close.

A lot of money is also being spent in the New York City mayoral contest, although contest may be the wrong word to use. Michael Bloomberg, the multi-billionaire incumbent, had the city council change the term limits law so he could run again for the third time. He has a huge lead over City Comptroller William Thompson. Bloomberg, a Democrat all his life until he first ran for mayor, as a Republican, in 2001, and who left the GOP in 2007 to become an independent, is running on both the Republican and Independent lines. Thompson, who is African-American, is the Democratic nominee in a city that is 5-to-1 Democratic.

I'm not going to sit here and pretend that what happens at the polls Tuesday is going to tell us what it means for President Obama's agenda or how it will portend the 2010 or even 2012 elections. These off-year elections -- the ones that take place a year after the election of a president -- really encompass only two gubernatorial races (Virginia and New Jersey), a handful of mayoral contests and maybe one or two other things to watch. Hardly a national referendum.

But sometimes what comes out of these races makes us sit up and take notice. In 1989, the issue of abortion was front and center in the two gubernatorial races, and it helped elect Democrats Jim Florio in N.J. and Doug Wilder in Va. Wilder was the first African-American elected governor since Reconstruction, an election that also coincided with David Dinkins becoming New York City's first black mayor. The Democrats' ability to run successfully on the issue of abortion, as well as their assembling multi-racial coalitions, helped them take the White House at their next opportunity, in 1992.

Similarly, in 1993, a year after Bill Clinton's election, Republicans wrestled the governorships away from the Democrats in both states, and they also won the mayoralty in five-to-one Democratic New York City. A sign of things to come for the GOP? Well, the next year the party won control of both the House and Senate for the first time since 1952.

Then again, sometimes these elections tell us nothing. Look no further than 2001, when Democrats recaptured the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey -- a scant few weeks after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. And yet, the following year, Republicans made historic gains in Congress, with 9/11 being a major factor.

So we'll no doubt have a lot of interpretations of what Tuesday's elections mean. But that will be for Wednesday. For now, here's a quick look at what we'll be watching:

GOVERNOR:

New Jersey -- There is no way anyone looking at the state's economy can say things are better now than they were four years ago. Jon Corzine (D), who quit the Senate four years ago to seek the governorship, knows that. His negatives remain high. But, with the help of millions of dollars in attack ads -- much of it financed from the wealth he attained as a former Goldman Sachs executive -- as many voters see the race as a referendum on his Republican opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, as they do on Corzine's performance of the past four years. Christie had hoped to use his reputation as a crime-fighting former Justice Department official to topple Corzine, and in fact, he had a double-digit lead in the polls for much of the year. The race is considered a tossup. Complicating the race is the presence of an independent on the ballot, Chris Daggett. Some polls indicated he was taking more from Christie than from the governor, but as Nov. 3 approached, his numbers began to shrink.

Virginia -- Democrats have won the last two gubernatorial races here, in addition to replacing both Republican senators with Democrats in the past two election cycles. And Barack Obama carried the commonwealth in his bid for president last year, the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in 1964. But there's no evidence that the enthusiasm Obama generated in 2008 is being duplicated by this year's gov nominee, state Sen. Creigh Deeds. He trails anywhere from 11 to 18 points in polls against Bob McDonnell, the former state attorney general, whose political roots go back to Pat Robertson and the conservative movement, but who has run as a centrist, issue-oriented candidate focusing on transportation and tax issues. At one point, it looked as if McDonnell had given the Democrats an issue they could run with: the discovery of a 1989 thesis that expressed his doubts, if not hostility, about working women and feminism. But the emerging brouhaha never became the "Macaca moment" the Dems were hoping for, and whispers coming out of the White House complain about Deeds being a poor candidate.

CONGRESS:

California 10th CD (vacated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher, who took a job with the State Department) -- In a district that has an 18-point Democratic advantage, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) is favored over attorney David Harmer (R), whose father served briefly as Ronald Reagan's lt. gov. in the 1970s.

New York 23rd CD (vacated by Republican John McHugh, now the Secretary of the Army) -- If this race was portrayed as a battle between conservatives and moderates for the soul of the Republican Party, the battle is over. The conservatives won. After Obama plucked McHugh out of the House, GOP leaders nominated Dede Scozzafava, a 10-year state assemblywoman. But from the beginning, conservatives viewed the choice of Scozzafava with alarm over her pro-abortion rights, pro-gay marriage record. In New York, they had another option. Doug Hoffman, a wealthy conservative who had angled for the GOP nomination, was picked as the candidate of the Conservative Party. And suddenly, right-leaning Republicans from around the country began to rally around Hoffman, who was endorsed by the anti-tax Club for Growth, as well as national figures such as Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. For the longest time, it appeared that the split in the GOP between the Scozzafava and Hoffman forces would elect the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens -- this, in a district that has had Republican congressional representation ever since there was a Republican Party. But as her fundraising stalled, her numbers were tanking as well; last week's Siena College poll showed her well back in third place, with 20 percent. On Saturday, she withdrew from the race, and the next day she endorsed the Democratic candidate.

MAYOR:

Atlanta -- The city has had a continuous string of black mayors, starting with Maynard Jackson in 1973. But the leading candidate is a white woman, City Councilmember Mary Norwood. If she doesn't get a majority of the vote on Tuesday, the race goes to a December runoff. Maor Shirley Franklin is term-limited.

Boston -- Thomas Menino, already the city's longest-serving mayor, is favored in his fifth-term bid against City Councilor Michael Flaherty, despite an ongoing scandal about liquor licenses and deleted emails that have bedeviled City Hall.

Houston -- If elected, Annise Parker, the city controller, would become the first openly gay woman to win in a major American city. Mayor Bill White is term-limited.

New York -- Michael Bloomberg, the lifelong Democrat who became a Republican in 2001 to run for mayor and who left the GOP in 2007 to become an independent, is the Republican-Independent candidate for a third term. A multi-billionaire, he has spent close to $100 million -- the most of any candidate in history -- in his bid against Democratic nominee William Thompson, the city comptroller. Once Bloomberg managed to cajole the city council to temporarily lift the two-terms-and-you're-out limits, the race was effectively over. The city's voting registration is five-to-one Democratic -- and yet a Democratic nominee hasn't won the mayoralty here in 20 years.

BALLOT MEASURE:

Same sex marriage in Maine -- Voters will decide whether to keep a law passed by the state Legislature supporting marriage between same-sex partners. Same-sex marriage has never survived a voter initiative in any state, the latest casualty coming in California.

For all the writeups about Tuesday's off-year elections, you'd never know that there are other big-city mayoral elections on the ballot in addition to New York.

New York is the largest city, of course, and much of what happens there is bigger than life. Indeed, the mayor seeking a third term, Michael Bloomberg (R/I), has spent upwards of $85 million, most of it his own money, in his campaign against City Comptroller William Thompson, a Democrat. Bloomberg is nationally known as a multi-billionaire, as a crusader against handguns, as someone who might have once had -- or might still have -- a desire to reach the White House.

But he is also going to win on Tuesday going away. Everyone knows that.

And so, with just four days to go, wouldn't it be nice if we paid attention to the other mayoral races at stake? I thought so. Here are five races worth watching:

ATLANTA: Since 1973, when the city elected Maynard Jackson as mayor, Atlanta has had a continuous string of black mayors: Jackson, Andrew Young, Jackson again, Bill Campbell and Shirley Franklin, the current term-limited mayor. This is, as has often been said, the cradle of the civil rights movement in the South. And yet the frontrunner for Tuesday's election is Mary Norwood, a fiscally-conservative white city councilwoman who has not only attracted overwhelming support from the city's business elite but significant support from African-Americans as well. Crime in Atlanta is up, and the economy has faltered. Norwood is facing two black candidates: City Council President Lisa Borders and former state Sen. Kasim Reed. Neither is as polished a campaigner as Norwood, and neither has made the case to the African-American community that black voters should rally behind one of them to avoid Norwood sneaking in. Andy Young is backing Reed, who has raised the most money of the three candidates. Norwood is seen as having the best chance of the three winning the race outright on Tuesday; if no one gets a majority of the vote, it goes to a Dec. 1 runoff.

BOSTON: Just as Bloomberg has campaigned on his seeming invincibility in New York, there is an air of super-confidence on behalf of Thomas Menino, Boston's longest-serving mayor who is seeking an unprecedented fifth term. But unlike the aggressive tactics employed by Bloomberg, who is on the air constantly attacking his rival, Menino is running a play-it-safe campaign, shaking hands and smiling. His opponent in this officially nonpartisan race (both are Democrats) is City Councilor at Large Michael Flaherty, who has been hammering Menino from the outset over a liquor license scandal that has hit City Hall and a subsequent deleting of emails by a top Menino aide. But he is woefully unfunded, can't afford to buy expensive TV time, and has had trouble attracting media attention.

CHARLOTTE, NC: With Mayor Pat McCrory (R) stepping down after a record 14 years in office, the race is between two members of the city council -- John Lassiter, a Republican, and Anthony Foxx, a Democrat. The issues facing Charlotte seem to be basic ones involving taxes, transportation and infrastructure; a recent debate centered on whether to go ahead with a proposed streetcar. In recent years, Charlotte mayors have attempted to advance their political careers, with limited success. McCrory was the GOP nominee for governor in 2008. His predecessor, Richard Vinroot (R), sought the same office in 2000. Before Vinroot was Sue Myrick (R), who was elected to Congress in 1994 and still serves. Prior to Myrick was Harvey Gantt, who was the Democratic nominee for the Senate against GOP incumbent Jesse Helms in both 1990 and 1996. And before Gantt was H. Edward Knox, who narrowly lost the Democratic nomination for governor in a 1984 runoff.

DETROIT: Dave Bing, the former NBA Hall of Famer who was elected mayor back in May following the resignation of scandal-plagued Kwame Kilpatrick, is heavily favored to win a full term over businessman Tom Barrow, who ran twice against Mayor Coleman Young in the 1980s.

HOUSTON: The mayor of the nation's fourth largest city is the popular Bill White, a Democrat who is stepping down after three terms and who is running for the U.S. Senate. Everyone agrees that the three-way race to succeed him on Tuesday will go to a runoff. The three major candidates, all Democrats, are Eugene Locke, a former City Attorney backed by business leaders who is African-American; Peter Brown, a wealthy architect and councilmember-at-large; and City Controller Annise Parker, who could become the first openly gay woman to be elected mayor of a major American city. (The Republican candidate, Roy Morales, is not thought to be a factor.) Parker's sexual orientation has not been an issue. She and Brown are expected to advance to the December runoff.

Lindsay jumped on the Mets' 1969 bandwagon and won a 2nd term. Giuliani's Yankee sentiments didn't waver even during the 2000 Subway Series.

There was a bit of eye rolling on my part last night, as well as a sense of where-have-I-seen-this-before deja vu, watching New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg in the New York Yankees' victorious locker room, following their capture of the American League pennant -- their 40th -- after they beat the California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in six games.

Bloomberg, the odds-on favorite to win a third term against City Comptroller William Thompson next week, grew up in Boston as a Red Sox fan. But he has come around in his eight years as mayor, rooting for the Yankees in their successful 2003 series against the Sox -- think Aaron Boone -- as well as their not-so-successful series in 2004 -- think up 3-0 only to lose four straight. He mastered the switch far better than, say, Hillary Clinton, who unconvincingly declared herself to be a lifelong Yankees fan in 2000 (when she moved to New York to run for the Senate) when in fact she was a lifelong Chicago Cubs fan.).

But there he was last night, front and center in the locker room, with his Yankees jacket and all, getting in every camera shot as Fox TV was up on the podium with its post-game interviews.

Full disclosure: I happen to be a lifelong Yankees fan.

Yes, I know I seem to get in trouble every time I say outloud what things remind me of. But I had a flashback last night, back to 1969, when another NYC mayor running for re-election, John Lindsay, was omnipresent in the Mets' improbable march to the World Series that year. Lindsay, running against Republican (John Marchi) and Democratic (Mario Procaccino) Party nominees, nonetheless was victorious -- and one of the factors in his favor was his linking his candidacy to the perennial underdog Mets. (The vision of a deliriously happy Lindsay being doused with champagne remains.)

The differences between the 1969 Lindsay and the 2009 Bloomberg campaigns are huge, of course. No one doubts that Bloomberg will cruise to a third term next week, while there were genuine questions about Lindsday 40 years ago. (Yikes. Forty years ago??)

But what they have in common is/was the ability to ride the coattails of a successful baseball team. And in baseball-loving New York City, that is no small thing.

No mayor in Big Apple history is probably more closely associated with a baseball team than Rudy Giuliani and his beloved Yankees. Even during the 2000 Subway Series, in which the Yankees took on the Mets, Giuliani never hid his Yankee regalia or sentiments. Ironically, the year Giuliani was running for re-election -- 1997 -- was the only year of the mayor's final six years in which the Yanks didn't make it to the World Series.

The fact that this year's Series is between the Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies could prove to be delicate for the candidates running for governor of New Jersey. South Jersey is Phillies country, but north Jersey is Yankees territory; hence the dilemma.

So who are Gov. Jon Corzine (D), GOP challenger Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett rooting for? We do know that Corzine, seeking a second term, is a Chicago White Sox fan, and that Christie roots for the Mets.

David Madden, of Philadelphia's KYW radio, points out that with all the other problems facing the Garden State, baseball loyalties are not high on any of the candidates' list of key issues:

But should the issue come up, Rowan University political science professor Larry Butler suggests they just be honest.

"People understand that if you're a fan, you're a fan for life and you need to stick to it. If you start trying to play games and say "Well, I kind of like both teams", it just makes you sound like a wishy washy politician."

Wally Edge, writing on the PolitickerNJ.com blog, has a wonderful history of the World Series and NJ governors. He has uncovered some real fun stuff, starting with the fact that the Yankees and Phillies met only once in the World Series, in 1950 (a four-game Yankee sweep), and the governor at the time was Alfred Driscoll (R), a "serious Phillies fan." But he wasn't running in 1950. There's more:

New Jersey has elected Governors eleven times in a year when the Yankees won the World Series. Democrats have won in seven of those years, and the Republicans in four. In those years, when the Democrats win the governorship, the Yankees win the World Series 57% of the time; when the GOP elects a Governor, the Yankees are world champions 75% of the time.

The only living Governor of New Jersey to have won in a Yankees world championship year is Brendan Byrne, a Democrat who was re-elected in 1977. The Yankees lost the World Series when Thomas Kean (1981) and James E. McGreevey (2001) ran.

The Yankees have been in the World Series only three times when a Governor of New Jersey is seeking re-election; they won under two incumbents, Driscoll (1949) and Byrne (1977), and lost to the Milwaukee Braves when Robert Meyner sought a second term in 1957.

Note: Game 5 of the World Series is scheduled on the night before the election.

I'm not sure there's even a "Thompson for Mayor" button.

By many accounts, Michael Bloomberg has been a very good mayor for New York City; certainly that argument could be made for most of his first term. The economy was soaring, crime was down, and race relations were nowhere near the nadir they had fallen when David Dinkins (1990-1993) or Rudy Giuliani (1994-2001) were in office. After two terms, he still remains very popular. But the conditions facing the city are not as rosy as they were four years ago.

Meanwhile, there is something unnerving about watching Bloomberg in his bid for a third term. It's not that his record isn't worth another four years; it's more the kind of tactics he is employing. And it's not that he's spending another fortune -- $65 million at last count -- to get re-elected. It's that, with all polls showing him comfortably ahead of his opponent, City Comptroller William Thompson, he is flooding the airwaves with attacks on Thompson, unnecessarily in my view.

Of course, if it weren't for his money, Bloomberg wouldn't be Mayor Bloomberg.

Flashback to 2001, when Mayor Giuliani was completing his second term and ineligible for a third. He tried to overturn term limits so he could run again but was rebuffed. As it was, his numbers were really unimpressive; he was a divisive figure who was either loved or loathed. Then came 9/11, and Giuliani was hoisted into the role as "America's Mayor." But legally he couldn't stay on at City Hall.

So he did the next best thing: he made sure that billionaire Bloomberg would be his anointed successor. Giuliani, whose popularity in days and weeks after 9/11 was at stratospheric heights, campaigned tirelessly for Bloomberg, a lifelong pro-choice/pro-gay rights Democrat who ran on the GOP line because he had no chance at becoming the Democratic Party nominee.

With Rudy's imprimatur and his own fat wallet, Bloomberg won a narrow victory. Four years later, after a very successful term, he was re-elected in a landslide. Not bad for a Republican in 5-1 Democratic New York City.

Then he began to get restless. At some point in the months leading up to the 2008 presidential election, there were indications that Bloomberg was entertaining thoughts of the White House -- running as an independent. In June of 2007, he quit the GOP and declared himself an independent. But a bid for president never materialized.

Then, with 2009 and the end of his mayoralty staring at him in the face, Bloomberg rammed a bill through the City Council that disposed of term limits -- allowing him to run a third time. It was a controversial measure, and not as popular with the voters as he thought it would be. But with a compliant City Council, it was a done deal from the get go. Four years ago, Bloomberg's argument was that he should be re-elected because the city's economy was booming. Now his argument, and his argument for overturning term limits, was that the city's fragile economic condition (a $5 billion budget deficit) demanded him to finish the job.

With the city GOP basically non-existent, he had the Republican line for the asking; he is also running as an Independent. Some Democrats who were preparing to run, such as Rep. Anthony Weiner of Brooklyn (who lost in the 2005 primary), decided there was no way they could surmount the Bloomberg bankroll and withdrew from consideration. Thompson, an early candidate, stayed in the race. He is his party's nominee. He is going to lose big time.

It's tough running against a limitless checkbook and, in fairness, a popular incumbent. But it's been tough getting media coverage in this year's campaign as well, and in fact many voters have no idea who Thompson is -- even though he has been in citywide office the past eight years.

He would be the city's second African-American mayor; Dinkins was the first. But unlike the Dinkins (or Obama) campaigns, he has not lit up the black community. And while he is a calm person running a calm campaign, the same can't be said about his opposition. Bloomberg has belittled his time as president of the city Board of Education -- "You don't get a medal for rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic," the mayor said during a debate last week. Giuliani, campaigning for Bloomberg once again, went even further, reminding voters that the city was once gripped by "the fear of going out at night and walking the streets," and suggesting that if Bloomberg were to lose, "this city could very easily be taken back in a very different direction -- it could very easily be taken back to the way it was with the wrong political leadership."

A race-based appeal? Some thought so. But Bloomberg didn't distance himself from the remarks. And Thompson knew that making a federal case of it would get him nowhere. Few people are listening.

Bloomberg would probably win without having to spend $65 million. He could win without trashing Thompson. He has been a pretty successful mayor. There is something about his campaign that just seems unsettling -- and unnecessary.

All week long we are focusing on the key races in this year's off-year elections. Here's the schedule:

MONDAY: Virginia governor
YESTERDAY: New Jersey governor
TODAY: New York City mayor
THURSDAY: Congressional races in California and New York
FRIDAY: Election wrap-up, plus a look ahead to Mass. Senate primaries

An independent candidate may help decide who wins on Nov. 3.

It is not unusual to see campaigns turn ugly in New Jersey, and to say that this year's gubernatorial contest is the ugliest in memory may be a stretch. But it's not a pretty sight.

Much of the nastiness has come from the campaign of the incumbent, Democrat Jon Corzine. And why not? When the latest Quinnipiac Poll shows 56 percent of state voters giving Corzine a negative job rating -- which by the way is his best showing in months -- then going negative sure seems to make sense.

To put it bluntly, it has not been a rewarding four years for Gov. Corzine. The former Goldman Sachs executive resigned his Senate seat to make the race for governor in 2005, insisting that his background would rescue the state from its financial problems. He spent a fortune -- some $43 million, part of his Goldman Sachs fortune -- on his campaign (which followed upon the record $60 million he spent getting elected to the Senate in 2000).

Since then, here's what he has to show for it: the economy is in turmoil, unemployment is up, the deficit is ballooning, and taxes have been raised. When "Wall Street" became a dirty word for many voters in 2008 (fact check: it's actually two words), Corzine's Wall Street background seemed like an anchor around his neck.

Then came the dramatic moment in July, when 44 people were arrested in New Jersey on corruption charges. The list included three mayors and two state assemblymen, some of who were close allies of Corzine. Soon after, federal officials raided the home of a member of the governor's Cabinet; he quickly resigned. One of the Democratic consultants arrested committed suicide. The Republican candidate, Chris Christie, had the issue he was looking for. There were rumors that Corzine himself would quit the race.

But he never doubted himself. He named a veteran reform-minded lawmaker, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, as his running mate (N.J. will elect a lt. gov. this year for the first time ever). And he went after the ethics of Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, in a big way.

A smart strategy. Christie built his reputation on having sent mobsters and politicians -- from both parties -- to jail for corruption. But the Corzine campaign has turned the tables back on the Republican. It has attempted to paint Christie as a lackey of George W. Bush and Karl Rove. As a member of the party that wants to "dictate their own religious beliefs to the rest of us." The party that brought "skyrocketing unemployment, a housing crisis, bank bailouts, and a war in Iraq."

A group with Democratic ties spent nearly a million dollars during the GOP primary attacking Christie, hoping -- in vain -- that Republicans would nominate conservative Steve Lonegan, widely considered to be a weaker opponent for Corzine. But Democrats haven't let up on the attack. And Christie's once-sizable lead in the polls -- it was in the double digits for much of the year -- has evaporated. (A Roll Call column back in July by analyst Stu Rothenberg, entitled, "You Have 4 Months To Learn To Say 'Gov. Chris Christie' -- seems like a million years ago.)

In fairness, the decline of Christie in the polls says as much about Christie as it does about his opposition. He has not sufficiently spelled out what he intends to do to revive the economy, other than call for tax cuts. He found himself on the defensive when it was revealed that he may have spoken to Karl Rove in 2006 about a future political campaign. It became a big deal; to be talking politics while serving as U.S. Attorney is a violation of the Hatch Act. (It was hardly unexpected to watch the "outraged" reaction of so many Democrats; today, a "shocked" Sen. Frank Lautenberg called for a federal investigation into Christie's activities.)

There's more. When he traveled as U.S. Attorney, Christie would often stay at far more expensive hotels than the Justice Department had recommended. That got big headlines. He failed to report a $46,000 loan to a then-top aide while he was U.S. Attorney on his tax returns or financial-disclosure forms. And the person who received the loan, Michele Brown, may have used her position in the federal prosecutor's office to help his gubernatorial campaign, according to the New York Times.

If Christie didn't have enough troubles, there's another wrinkle: the emergence of a viable independent candidate, Chris Daggett, Daggett, a former environmental aide to ex-Gov. Tom Kean (R) who runs from the liberal side of the spectrum, has impressed voters in his two debate performances. Most polls indicate that Daggett, who is running in the mid-teens, is taking more votes away from Christie than Corzine. The Christie campaign is desperately trying to make the point that a "vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine," telling voters that any vote for the independent is a wasted one.

Polls show the race to be a dead heat. Even if he hasn't convinced voters that he deserves a second term, Corzine has made sure there are serious doubts about Christie. Momentum is clearly in his favor.

Having said that, his tactics seemed to cross a line -- or at the least, stoop to a new low -- when his campaign put up a commercial focusing on Christie's hefty girth. The spot says that Christie "threw his weight around" when he avoided a traffic citation for some infraction, while the video shows Christie jiggling his way out of a car, in slow motion. Democrats deny, with a straight face, that they were making Christie's weight an issue. But just as the ad was going up, there he was, a trim, fit Gov. Corzine jogging through the streets of Newark with Mayor Cory Booker. (Reminds me of George Bush, trying to contrast his fitness with the 69-year old Ronald Reagan, out jogging during the 1980 Republican presidential primary campaign.) The Washington Post's David Broder, the dean of political columnists, said it was "a really distasteful tactic -- the 'fat boy' ploy":

This is not an issue that Barack Obama can afford to ignore. As the leader of the Democratic Party, he is accountable for the Corzine campaign. He has to know that if he, Obama, were not such a lean, fit and dead-eye basketball player, he could be a target himself.

He may be tempted to emulate Corzine's tactics when he runs for reelection, if he's lucky enough to draw Newt Gingrich as his opponent. But he ought to remember that it could as easily be Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty or the calorie-counting Mike Huckabee. ...

And Democrats with longer memories (or less dire political circumstances) than Corzine's ought to remember recent history. ... Go back to Bill Clinton, who obviously showed the effects of too many stops at McDonald's. Papa Bush and Bob Dole, with not an extra ounce of fat, could have made him a laughingstock. ...

This issue has no place in our politics.

The New York Times' Gail Collins was more understanding of what Corzine is trying to do:

It's hard to blame his campaign for focusing on matters of girth. The state is a mess, his party members keep getting indicted and his personality is what we always like to politely term "abrasive." All he's really got is his ability to run a 10K. Corzine can't even dwell on Christie's terrible driving record given the fact that he spent the first part of his administration incapacitated because of an unfortunate decision to mix speeding with failure to buckle one's seat belt.

But right now, the name of the game is winning, not playing nice. And with Virginia more and more looking like a lost cause for the Democrats, the expectation is that the White House will do whatever it can to make sure Corzine is re-elected.

All week long we are focusing on the key races in this year's off-year elections. Here's the schedule:

YESTERDAY: Virginia governor
TODAY: New Jersey governor
WEDNESDAY: New York City mayor
THURSDAY: Congressional races in California and New York
FRIDAY: Election wrap-up, plus a look ahead to Mass. Senate primaries

There is an old axiom about the elections that take place the year after a new president comes to power. The contests for governor of New Jersey and Virginia, people often say, are a referendum of the person sitting in the White House.

And that's true, except when they're not.

And that is probably correct.

In Virginia, it's been even simpler than that. In the last eight gubernatorial elections in the Old Dominion, dating back to 1977, the party of the president has always lost the following year in Virginia. History, at least, portends a victory by Republican Bob McDonnell over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Of course, there's history and there's history. No one in baseball has ever been up three games to none in the post-season and lost a seven-game series, until it happened. So history only accounts for so much. And today's Virginia is not your father's Virginia. Democrats have won the last two gov races, and in the last two election cycles they have replaced Republican Sens. George Allen (defeated in '06) and John Warner (retired in '08) with two Democrats. Plus, Barack Obama carried the commonwealth last year -- the first Democratic presidential candidate to do that since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Democrats may have felt their streak was going to continue following the June primary. They seemed to have nominated the best of their choices. Instead of former state Delegate Brian Moran, a liberal, or ex-DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, a Clintonista, they chose Deeds, a pragmatist and centrist in the mold of (ex-Gov./now-Sen.) Mark Warner. Deeds carried 10 of Virginia's 11 congressional districts in the primary, and won more than 50 percent in the three-way contest -- a far more impressive showing than was expected.

McDonnell, who resigned early in the campaign as state attorney general -- he defeated Deeds for that post, back in '05, by fewer than 400 votes -- won the GOP gov. nod without opposition. He is a far more polished candidate than the one put forward by the Republicans four years ago, Jerry Kilgore, whose style and thick accent were often dismissed by pols in the know. McDonnell was running a near-flawless, make-no-waves campaign, offering conservative positions while making sure not to alienate moderates (and not turning off his conservative base at the same time).

But all the smoothness and polish in the world didn't prepare him for the front page of the Aug. 30 Washington Post, which revealed, in full detail, a thesis McDonnell wrote back in 1989 that discussed his views about working women in a none-too-flattering light: that feminists were "detrimental" to the "traditional family," and that government policy should favor married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators."

McDonnell immediately dismissed the furor, saying he has changed his views in the 20 years since. Deeds says that McDonnell's voting record in the state legislature since 1989 shows that he still maintains an out-of-touch philosophy. Both campaigns upped their focus on women, who represent about 54 percent of Virginia electorate.

For weeks, it seemed to change the race dramatically. Deeds suddenly had the wind at his back. His numbers were improving. Labor was investing in his candidacy. By all accounts, it had become a "Macaca" moment for McDonnell.

I'm not exactly sure what happened in the past month to change that perception, but something has changed. If the thesis was the winning hand the Democrats thought they were dealt, perhaps they overplayed it. Turn on a television and you are bombarded with Deeds commercials blasting McDonnell for his ideology, then and now, always referring back to the thesis. The Republican's views are a legitimate issue, but it seems like Deeds and the Dems had nothing else to say ... or at least that's the impression of someone who watches TV.

McDonnell, for his part, never seemed to panic. He's run a very disciplined campaign. There still remains the question whether he is more out of the mainstream than the majority of the Virginia electorate, or whether his plans on taxes and transportation are better than Deeds'. The Washington Post has certainly made up its mind, as noted by its enthusiastic endorsement of Deeds in the Sunday paper.

The latest polls show McDonnell leading Deeds in the high single digits. The African-American vote that helped Obama carry the state last year is unlikely to be duplicated, and in fact there is some evidence that black voters are less enthused about Deeds than they have for other Democrats in the past.

Obama comes into the state next Tuesday to campaign for his fellow Democrat.

With just over two weeks before the 2009 off-year elections, we will spend each day this week focusing on a key race. Here's the schedule:

TODAY: Virginia governor
TUESDAY: New Jersey governor
WEDNESDAY: New York City mayor
THURSDAY: Congressional races in California and New York
FRIDAY: Election wrap-up, plus a look ahead to Mass. Senate primaries

The International Olympic Committee has just held its first round of voting to determine a site for the 2016 Olympics. The headline: Chicago has been eliminated, despite personal lobbying from President and Mrs. Obama.

Tokyo has been eliminated in the second round.

The choice is now between Rio de Janeiro and Madrid.

This year's defeat may signal the end of Mark Green's political career.

There was not much excitement in Tuesday's runoff elections in New York City, but one result caught our eye.

Mark Green, the former NYC Public Advocate who was trying to reclaim his old job, was soundly defeated in the Democratic primary by Bill de Blasio, a Brooklyn city councilman and former Hillary Clinton campaign aide. The margin was 63-37 percent.

The public advocate -- sort of like NYC's ombudsman -- is a relatively new position. It replaced city council president as a city-wide electoral post in 1993, when Green was elected as the city's first. He was re-elected in '97 but gave it up in 2001, when he ran, unsuccesfully, for mayor. He returned to the political arena this year when incumbent Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum decided to retire.

His defeat is the latest -- and perhaps the last -- in a long political career noted mostly for his defeats. Here's the complete list:

1980 -- ran for Congress in Manhattan's 18th CD against Rep. Bill Green (R), lost 57-43%.

1986 -- ran for the U.S. Senate: won Dem primary but lost to Sen. Al D'Amato (R) 57-41%.

1993 -- elected NYC public advocate; re-elected in 1997.

1998 -- finished 3rd in Democratic Senate primary with 19%, behind Charles Schumer and Geraldine Ferraro.

2001 -- ran for mayor of NYC: won Dem primary but lost to Michael Bloomberg (R) 49-47%.

2006 -- lost Democratic primary for attorney general to Andrew Cuomo, 53-33%.

2009 -- lost Democratic runoff for NYC public advocate to Bill de Blasio.

The news yesterday was that former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder announced he would stay neutral in the race for governor this year between fellow Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell.

The Washington Post's Sandhya Somashekhar reports that Wilder, who in 1989 became the nation's first elected African-American governor, is staying out of the race, "despite multiple overtures by the White House that he throw his support behind" Deeds. While a Wilder endorsement is of questionable importance, "President Obama's repeated attempts to secure his support for Deeds gave Thursday's announcement national significance":

White House political director Patrick Gaspard spent two hours with Wilder one day in July, and the president called Wilder this month on Deeds's behalf. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a close friend of Obama's and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, had also encouraged Wilder to back Deeds.

The decision is a blow not only to Deeds, who has struggled to attract support from some leaders in the black community, but potentially for Obama, who is facing the first electoral test of his presidency in the [Virginia gubernatorial race].

"The requests made of me have been to endorse Mr. Deeds, the Democratic Candidate, for Governor. I refrain from doing so and will leave that choice to the voters," Wilder said in his statement.

If this whole scenario sounds strangely familiar, it's because we've seen it before. For some reason, Wilder seemingly approaches these elections with just one goal in mind: To be seen as important. And to be dramatic. And if you don't appreciate him, he can pout and become ornery. And it's usually to the detriment of his fellow Democrats. That is, until he comes through in the end. Which sometimes happens, but not always.

There are so many instances of this. In 1982, when then-Gov. Chuck Robb (D) announced the party would back Owen Pickett for the Senate, Wilder fumed. After he threatened to run against Pickett as an independent, Democrats caved in and endorsed another Senate candidate (who lost).

In 1993, he made it clear that he was not excited about Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Sue Terry, who was trying to succeed Wilder. She was defeated by George Allen (R). After the election, Wilder lashed out at her for being an inept candidate.

In 1994, Wilder announced an independent candidacy against Robb, who by now was a senator. But with little money and weak support, Wilder dropped his bid and endorsed Robb in the final weeks of the campaign. (When Robb defeated Oliver North that year, Wilder claimed he deserved some of the credit.)

In 1997 he refused to back Democrat Don Beyer in his gov race against Jim Gilmore (R).

In 2005, while he did endorse Tim Kaine for governor, who was elected, he repudiated Deeds, then running for attorney general (when he narrowly lost to the same Bob McDonnell).

Once again, Wilder is in the headlines because of his ambivalence towards the candidacy of a fellow Democrat. It's become a ritual.

It was an impressive showing for the incumbent in yesterday's preliminary round for mayor of Boston.

Thomas Menino, seeking an unprecedented fifth term, led the field of four in this nonpartisan election with 50.5 percent of the vote. Finishing second was city Councilor Michael Flaherty (24 percent). Menino and Flaherty now square off in the Nov. 3 runoff election.

A Boston Globe informal survey among voters found the dominant issue "not schools or public safety or property taxes, but the mayor. Many who voted for Flaherty [and the other candidates] said they were casting ballots not necessarily for one of those candidates, but against the status quo."

See Monday's Junkie post for the issues in the race.

The Massachusetts state Senate today followed the action taken last week by the state House. The overwhelmingly Democratic (35 out of 40 seats) Senate voted 24-16 to change state law and allow Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to name an interim appointee to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy. He or she would then serve until the special election on Jan. 19.

The bill first has to be re-voted on Wednesday in both chambers of the state legislature, a seemingly routine matter, and then Patrick will sign the bill, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

And then comes the fun part, seeing whom he will select. See my earlier post today on possible appointees.

And make sure to hear the full report by NPR's Tovia Smith on All Things Considered.

The Massachusetts state Senate is expected to begin debate at 11 a.m. ET today on a bill that would change state law ... and give Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the power to make an interim appointment to fill the vacancy in the U.S. Senate created by the Aug. 25 death of Edward Kennedy. That person would serve until the Jan. 19 special election.

Last week the state House voted 95-58 to approve the bill. The Senate vote is expected to be closer, even though Republicans are badly outnumbered in both chambers; there is some squeamishness in the Dem camp over charges of hypocrisy, given the fact that they took the power of Senate appointment away from the governor in 2004, when Sen. John Kerry (D) was running for president and a Republican governor, Mitt Romney, could have named a GOP successor. But that was then, and this is now.

Republicans have used parliamentary tactics to twice postpone the debate in the Senate, on Friday and again yesterday. They have indicated they will let allow debate today.

Assuming the Senate passes the measure, Patrick is expected to sign it tomorrow.

And he could name a Senate successor shortly after that. Names on the list are thought to include former Gov. Michael Dukakis, ex-DNC chair Paul Kirk (who is a former Kennedy aide), Harvard Law School professor Charle Ogletree, and ex-Lt. Gov. Evelyn Murphy. Massachusetts has never had a female senator.

Thomas Menino, the mayor of Boston, may be on the road to an unprecedented fifth term in tomorrow's preliminary election. But there is a growing controversy over the disappearance of months of city hall e-mails that could conceivably tie the Menino administration in a growing bribery scandal.

There are plenty of questions, yet to be satisfactorily answered, as to why Michael Kineavy, a top Menino aide, decided to delete six months of e-mails. News reports state that Dianne Wilkerson, a Democratic senator who resigned last fall after she was indicted in the bribery scandal -- accused of helping to sell a city liquor license -- often talked to Kineavy. And yet, mysteriously, nearly all of Kineavy's e-mails disappeared. Which leads some to bring, at the minimum, the mayor into the equation.

But the election is tomorrow, and the feeling is the scandal hasn't reached the point where it threatens Menino's tenure. At least not yet.

Some have asked state Attorney General Martha Coakley to investigate. The Boston Herald's Eagan writes that Coakley, who is sometimes criticized for a go-slow response to things, thinks much of what's going on is about politics.

But which campaign was she really worried about? Tom Menino's for re-election? Or her own for U.S. Senate?

Neither, insisted the attorney general yesterday in a telephone interview from Washington.

She said her wait-and-see stance on investigating the missing e-mails has nothing to do with the rap on her: She's too cautious and too ready to let somebody else - like the feds - do it. Nor is it about keeping the mayor and his powerful Boston political machine on her side come Election Day, she said. ...

Is she too cautious? "What's the opposite of cautious? Reckless? I am careful. I am the attorney general and I have huge responsibilities. There are very few people who will call me for jumping into cases for political reasons."

Menino's challengers tomorrow are city councilors Michael Flaherty & Sam Yoon and contractor Kevin McCrea. The top two finishers will then meet in a November runoff.

The Massachusetts House is expected to soon begin a debate -- likely to be contentious -- that would change the law regarding U.S. Senate succession.

Currently, the law calls for a special election between 145 and 160 days following a vacancy. After Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) died on Aug. 25, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) announced the primaries will be held Dec. 8 and the general election on Jan. 19. Democrats want to change the law, to give Patrick the power to name an interim senator who would serve until the 19th. It is especially important for Democrats to fill Kennedy's seat as soon as possible, especially in light of the fact that there are currently just 59 Democratic votes (including two independents) in the Senate, and a vote on overhauling the nation's health care system is expected this fall.

Democrats hold clear majorities in both the Massachusetts House and Senate, and so approval of the change is expected. But Republicans are also expected to put up obstacles to the vote; if nothing else, they hope to embarrass Democrats who took away the power of Senate appointment back in 2004 when the governor was a Republican, Mitt Romney. There are just 16 Republicans in the 160-member state House, and just five out of 40 state senators.

Member station WBUR will live-stream the debate in the state House, which can be seen here.

Massachusetts Miracle? If the law is eventually changed, more and more speculation has focused on former Gov. Michael Dukakis. The 1988 Democratic presidential nominee, Dukakis is seen as the leading candidate for Patrick to name.

Boston Globe's Matt Viser tried to find out if Dukakis was interested in the appointment.

"I'm not going to talk about that,'' he said. "The one thing that's important is that the bill gets passed.''

He would not comment on whether he would rule the interim post out.

"I think it's important the bill get passed, fast; that's the important thing,'' he said, adding as he walked to the exit: "I'm heading for the T! I'm heading for the T!''

In a primary characterized by few ads, little money, scant differences between the candidates and not much interest at all from voters, city Comptroller William Thompson won yesterday's Democratic mayoral primary in New York City, trouncing Queens city Councilman Tony Avella.

With all precincts counted, Thompson received 70 percent of the vote -- 218,793 votes -- to Avella's 21 percent (66,722 votes). A third candidate trailed with eight percent.

At a victory rally, Thompson immediately went after Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire who was elected twice as a Republican but who is now an independent.

You told us you'd create jobs. But the fact is, unemployment in our city is at a 16-year high. Eight is enough!

Thompson, who would be the city's second African-American mayor, is a decided underdog to Bloomberg, who was not involved in yesterday's primaries; he's running on the GOP and independent lines.

The battle to replace retiring Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum will go to a Sept. 29 Democratic runoff. Brooklyn city Councilman Bill de Blasio, a former Hillary Clinton campaign aide, led former public advocate Mark Green in a multi-candidate race. Green gave up the post in 2001 to run for mayor, where he narrowly lost to Bloomberg.

And the battle to succeed Comptroller Thompson will also be decided in two weeks, a runoff between two councilmembers.

The Democratic primary for Manhattan district attorney went to Cy Vance Jr., son of the late secretary of state under Jimmy Carter. Young Vance will be succeeding legendary Robert Morgenthau Jr., who is retiring and has been D.A. since 1975.

Other than mayor, Democrats are prohibitive favorites for the other positions.

Useless Trivia But Heck I'm Originally From New York So I Can't Help It. Here is a list of NYC comptrollers who have run for mayor since World War II:

Lawrence Gerosa (D 1954-61) -- running as an independent, lost 1961 general election to Robert Wagner Jr. (D)
Abe Beame (D 1962-65) -- lost 1965 general election to John Lindsay (R)
Mario Procaccino (D 1966-69) -- lost 1969 general election to John Lindsay (I)
Abe Beame (D 1970-73) -- elected in 1973
Harrison Goldin (D 1974-89) -- finished 3rd in 1989 Democratic primary
Alan Hevesi (D 1994-2001) -- finished 4th in 2001 Democratic primary

Ok, kids, gather round, as grandpa here will regale you with tales of great Democratic mayoral primaries in New York City history.

Oh, that 1961 battle, in which Mayor Robert Wagner Jr. went from establishment to insurgent in the blink of an eye, running against the party leaders ("bosses!") that backed him from the start to defeat state Comptroller Arthur Levitt.

Or that wild race in 1969, when a comebacking Wagner split the moderate-liberal vote with Herman Badillo and others (including Norman Mailer), which allowed conservative Mario Procaccino to win.

Hey, don't forget the race angle that Badillo raised against Abe Beame in 1973, a contest that included Mario ("I Didn't Plead the Fifth") Biaggi.

Say, did I mention that wild 1977 contest, when Mayor Beame, Bella Abzug, Mario Cuomo and others ran and lost to Ed Koch?

Ah, those were the days.

By comparison, few people are paying attention to tomorrow's Democratic primary between city Comptroller William Thompson (who?) and Councilman Tony Avella (who?). Little money has been raised, and TV commercials have not been aired. This, in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans 5-1.

The reason?

Continue reading "Once, A Democratic Mayoral Primary In NYC Meant Something" >

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Sarah Palin's departure as governor of Alaska has elevated Sean Parnell to the state's top post.

Parnell was a state senator representing Anchorage when he was elected lt. gov. on Palin's ticket in 2006. In 2008, with the support of Palin, he unexpectedly took on veteran Rep. Don Young in the GOP primary, which he lost by 304 votes. (Trivia: Parnell's father, Pat, challenged Young in 1980, as a Democrat, and got clobbered.)

Parnell says he will seek a full term in 2010. According to JuneauEmpire.com, Parnell says he will "continue the course" set by Palin.

With the New York State Senate in complete disarray for the past five weeks because of a 31-31 standoff between Democrats and Republicans -- and with the state not having a lieutenant governor to break a tie -- Gov. David Paterson (D) attempted to bring resolution to the matter today by appointing a lieutenant governor.

He is Richard Ravitch, the former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) who played a crucial role in helping New York survive a major fiscal crisis back in the 1970s.

New York has no LG because of a scandal: Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned as governor last year because of his involvement in a prostitution ring, and Lt. Gov. Paterson automatically moved up to succeed him.

Five weeks ago, when two members of the Democratic majority in the state Senate decided to organize with the Republicans, it moved a one-seat Dem majority to a one-seat GOP majority. And while the two parties were fighting over the legality of the action, one of the Democratic defectors returned to the fold, resulting in a 31-31 tie -- and total chaos in Albany.

Thus the move by Paterson to name a No. 2. Ravitch would stay in office until the 2010 elections.

Republicans, of course, are not thrilled, and they may present some constitutional argument why Paterson doesn't have the power to do this. But it also underscores the fact that there will now be four statewide officials who have been appointed to office without any input from the voters.

Governor -- David Paterson
Lieutenant Governor. -- Richard Ravitch
Comptroller -- Thomas DiNapoli (D). DiNapoli was appointed by the state Legislature in 2007 following the resignation of Alan Hevesi (D), who was convicted of defrauding the government.
U.S. Senator -- Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Gillibrand was appointed by Paterson to fill the vacancy created when Sen. Hillary Clinton became secretary of state.

Marion Barry, the former mayor of Washington, D.C., and current City Council member, was arrested Saturday evening on charges he was stalking a female companion, his former girlfriend. The Washington Post reports:

Barry's latest run-in with the law centers on his relationship with political consultant Donna Watts-Brighthaupt, who alleges that he continues to approach her even though they split up a few months ago. ... Barry called the charges unfounded and asked prosecutors to drop them.

If convicted of the misdemeanor stalking charge, he could face a year in prison, according to The Post's account.

Barry, who is on probation for failing to pay his federal taxes, has often been in legal hot water during his political career. In 1990, in his third term as mayor, he was arrested on drug charges in a famous "the bitch set me up" videotape and spent six months in prison. He was later elected to the council, the mayoralty, and is currently back on the council.

But this latest episode is likely to hurt his political career.

Haha, I'm just kidding.

Monica Conyers, the Detroit City Council president pro tempore who was convicted on Friday of taking bribes in a sludge deal, submitted her resignation today, effective July 6.

Conyers, the wife of John Conyers, the House Judiciary Committee chairman, had asked for more time to decide her future in the wake of her conviction. But City Council President Ken Cockrell Jr. told her that the council "would begin procedures to remove her from office if she does not quit immediately," according to the Detroit Free Press.

In the bizarre and often surreal world of politics -- where we like to say we've seen it all -- the strange situation involving South Carolina's Mark Sanford seems to have touched a nerve.

Sanford, for those who haven't heard (or who got lost hiking in the woods), is the two-term Republican governor who disappeared on Thursday and hadn't been heard from for four days -- and that includes last Sunday, Father's Day. His wife Jenny said she has not been in contact with him either, which led to a whole assortment of rumors.

Continue reading "Sanford Takes A Hike; Blogosphere Has Answers" >

The bizarre saga of the New York state Senate just got bizarrer.

State Sen. Hiram Monserrate, the Queens Democrat who joined the Bronx's Pedro Espada last week to give the GOP control of the state Senate, is returning to the Democratic fold.

Continue reading "N.Y. Defector Returns To Dems, Leaving State Senate Tied At 31" >

On Tuesday, I wrote about an effort in Maine to abolish separate branches of the state Legislature -- the House and Senate -- and instead move to a unicameral legislature, the way Nebraska does it.

Well, it ain't happening.

Keith Shortall, the public affairs director at the Maine Public Broadcasting Network, reports that the Maine state Senate has killed the bill:

Senators on Wednesday stuck by their earlier vote against the bill. That kills it for the session, even though the House had endorsed the plan. The proposed constitutional amendment would reduce the Legislature to one, 151-member body. The present Legislature has a 151-member House of Representatives and 35-member Senate. The change would have been subject to voter approval.

State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds won the three-way Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, an impressive showing for the candidate who was the least well-funded in the race. And while the momentum was clearly heading in his direction, his capturing of nearly 50 percent of the vote was the big headline of the night. Trailing well behind were former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian Moran.

Results with nearly all precincts reporting:

Deeds 159,284 49.73%
McAuliffe 84,588 26.41
Moran 76,376 23.84

Deeds will face former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) in November. The winner will succeed Democrat Tim Kaine, who is barred by state law from succeeding himself. Four years ago, McDonnell defeated Deeds for the AG post by just 323 votes.

Deeds raised about $3.7 million for his campaign, less than Moran and far less than McAuliffe, who entered the race as the favorite, despite this being his first bid as a candidate. McAuliffe had long been associated with the Clintons, having raised money for both Bill and Hillary and having headed her presidential bid in 2008.

Deeds also benefited from sharp attacks aimed at each other by McAuliffe and Moran; Deeds mostly stayed out of the fray. Hailing from rural Bath County, near the West Virginia border, he was clearly the most conservative of the three Dems, supporting a loophole in state law that exempts gun show sales from background checks.

They are still pointing fingers and shaking heads in New York, one day after a legislative coup in which two renegade Democrats voted with Republicans to give the GOP control of the state Senate -- control it lost last November after four decades.

But if you listen to what Democrats are saying today, the fight ain't over yet.

Continue reading "Winners & Losers In New York Coup; Dems Not Giving Up" >

The Maine House of Representatives is backing a plan that would establish a unicameral (one house) legislature -- combining members of the state House (current number: 151) and the state Senate (35) into one body of 151 members.

Of all the states, only Nebraska has that system, which it adopted in 1937.

The Maine Public Broadcasting Network reports that it's not a done deal: "The measure requires more votes in both the House and Senate. Today's vote in the House fell short of the two-thirds majority that would be needed for final passage."

And why would Maine do this? "Supporters say the constitutional change would save the state millions of dollars during a typical, two-year legislative session, and improve the Legislature's efficiency. But opponents say a unicameral Legislature lacks checks and balances."

Check out the Maine Unicameral Legislature blog, especially -- as the blogger, Rep. Linda Valentino, states -- "if you are ready for a REAL CHANGE, and ready to achieve a TRANSPARENT, EFFICIENT, and ACCOUNTABLE State legislature."

Not really.

But we, the political cognoscenti, have this ingrained and annoying habit of over-interpreting elections. That's especially true of off-year elections, like this year's gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, or special elections, like the one earlier this year in New York's 20th CD to replace Kirsten Gillibrand.

Sometimes what happens does have repercussions. In 1991, for example, Harris Wofford (D) upset former Attorney General Dick Thornburgh (R) in the special Pennsylvania Senate election following the death of incumbent Republican John Heinz. Wofford was appointed to fill the seat, but few thought he could beat Thornburgh, who had been a popular two-term governor. But Wofford, with the help of Dem strategists James Carville and Paul Begala, effectively used the issue of health care to upset Thornburgh. The following year, Bill Clinton used health care as one of his issues to win the White House.

In the off-year elections of 1993, it was a clean sweep for the GOP. Republicans took governorships in New Jersey, where Christie Whitman ousted Gov. Jim Florio, and Virginia, where George Allen won easily. Rudy Giuliani was elected mayor of New York City, hardly a bastion of Republicanism, and they kept a congressional seat on Staten Island. The following year, Republicans won control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1952.

So sometimes we do learn something in these isolated elections. But for the most part, attempts at reading tea leaves and extrapolating results into a BIG MESSAGE are often just silly.

Continue reading "How The Va. Primary Will Affect The 2016 Presidential Race" >

Regarding the shocking takeover of the New York state Senate by the Republican Party with the support of two Democrats from NYC:

Some are wondering what this does to the prospects of passing same-sex marriage legislation, which is supported by Gov. David Paterson (D) and already passed by the state Assembly.

Here's the take from Jeremy Peters and Danny Hakim of the New York Times:

Why Mr. Espada and Mr. Monserrate suddenly defected on Monday afternoon was not immediately clear.

One source of contention among Democrats recently has been Mr. Smith's support for same-sex marriage. Senator Ruben Diaz Sr., a Democrat from the Bronx, has been outspoken in his insistence that legislation allowing gay couples to marry not be allowed to come to a vote. Some had speculated he might leave the Democratic Party if Mr. Smith were to allow a vote.

But Mr. Diaz did not join Mr. Espada and Mr. Monserrate in the leadership vote on Monday. It was not immediately clear whether the same-sex marriage legislation played any role in the leadership dispute.

It's Jim Jeffords all over again, though on a smaller scale.

It looks like Republicans have managed to win back control of the New York state Senate.

They have apparently gotten two Democratic members, Hiram Monserrate of Queens and Pedro Espada of the Bronx, to vote with them. That gives Senate Republicans the 32 votes they would need to switch control ... thus electing Dean Skelos (R) as the new majority leader and ending Malcolm Smith's (D) leadership after just six months.

North Country Public Radio's Brian Mann reports that both Espada and Monserrate are "socially conservative" Dems who have "bristled" at Smith's leadership.

Democrats won control of the New York state Senate (by one vote) in 2008 for the first time since the 1960s, and thus giving the party complete control over state government.

The Albany Times-Union's Irene Jay Liu and Rick Karlin call it a "stunning move that could change the nature of electoral politics." Indeed.

Virginia Democrats will choose their gubernatorial nominee in a primary tomorrow for the first time since 1977. The reason you are reading so much about Virginia is not that it's the state (commonwealth) with the most interesting race for governor. It's that, like New Jersey, it's the only game in town this year.

And that happens every four years. We watch Virginia, and New Jersey, closer than most, because they are the only two gubernatorial contests in the year after the presidential election.

There's a lot happening in the Old Dominion. I previewed the race on Thursday. Here's the latest.

Continue reading "Bloggers, Polls Weigh In On Virginia Democratic Gov Primary" >

New Jersey is one of the few states in the country without a lieutenant governor; in fact, other than U.S. senators, the governor is the only person elected statewide in the Garden State. That is one reason New Jersey's governor is among the most powerful in the nation.

This year, however, comes a change. For the first time ever, this year's election in N.J. will bring in a lieutenant governor.

But who will it be? On Friday, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. said he's not interested in becoming Chris Christie's (R) running mate. Kean, the unsuccessful Republican nominee for the Senate in 2006 against Bob Menendez and the son of a former two-term GOP governor, said he is focusing on the state budget, and a statewide run would be too distracting.

Claire Heininger of the Newark Star-Ledger says other Republicans, such as Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan and state Sens. Diane Allen and Jennifer Beck, remain possibles.

One Democrat, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, has already taken himself out of contention to be Gov. Jon Corzine's running mate.

At some point, we'll be talking about the race for governor of Virginia in larger political terms.

As in ... Is this the place where Republicans begin their long trek back? Will they win on the home turf of Gov. Tim Kaine, the Democratic National chairman? If so, will it portend vulnerability for the Democrats in 2010?

Or will Virginia continue the string of Democratic advances in the Old Dominion? Barack Obama won Virginia in 2008, the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since LBJ in '64. Democrats have won back-to-back Senate and gubernatorial contests. Will that trend continue?

But it's too early for such lofty thoughts.

Right now, the focus is on the Democratic primary next Tuesday, June 9, where three candidates are running: former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, and ex-state Delegate Brian Moran. (Bob McDonnell, who resigned as state attorney general back in February in order to focus full time on the race for governor, has already been selected as the Republican nominee.)

And for most of the primary campaign, of the three Dems running to succeed the term-limited Kaine, the spotlight has been on one man: McAuliffe.

Continue reading "Hare & Tortoises In Virginia Democratic Gov Primary" >

I'm as excited about this year's New Jersey gubernatorial race as much as anyone, maybe more. I can't wait to see how the two candidates define the contest and each other.

But I have to admit, I smiled at this breathless line in Associated Press reporter Angela Delli Santi's otherwise excellent analysis of the race:

Republican Christopher J. Christie and Gov. Jon S. Corzine are set to do battle in the only governor's race in the country to feature an incumbent Democrat [emphasis mine].

Sounds like a big deal -- the only gov race with an incumbent Democrat! But wait: There are all of two gov races in the country this year, New Jersey and Virginia!

That must mean there's more history in the making: Virginia is the only governor's race in the country without an incumbent running!

Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, a conservative backed by the party establishment, won the Republican gubernatorial primary in New Jersey, defeating an even more conservative candidate, ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. Another conservative candidate, state Assemblyman Richard Merkt, finished a poor third.

Christie, who touts his crime-busting record, goes into the November general election a favorite over Gov. Jon Corzine (D), whose popularity declined along with the state's economy.

Click here for more on the GOP primary.

Since New Jersey governors have been allowed to run for a second term starting in the late 1940s, only two incumbents have gone down to defeat: Bill Cahill (R), in the 1973 GOP primary, and Jim Florio (D), in the 1993 general election.

The New Jersey Republican Party has a golden opportunity this year to do something it hasn't done in awhile: elect a candidate to statewide office. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, who left the Senate to become governor in 2005, has seen his numbers, along with the economy, tank, and he has responded by raising taxes and cutting services. The GOP would love to take advantage by ousting him in November.

But first the party will have to unite following today's contentious primary where, as Garden State Republicans have experienced before, the preferred candidate of the party establishment is being challenged by a conservative outsider.

Continue reading "Jersey GOP Needs To Sort Self Out Before It Faces Gov. Corzine" >

Dave Bing, the Hall of Fame basketball great who spent most of his career with the Pistons, was elected mayor of Detroit yesterday.

With 100 percent of the vote in, Bing received 49,054 votes (52.3%) to 44,770 votes (47.7%) for Kenneth Cockrel Jr., who had been serving as acting mayor since the resignation of scandal-tarred Kwame Kilpatrick.

Continue reading "Hoopla In Detroit: Dave Bing Is Elected Mayor" >

It's hard to make the case that anyone can turn around the image of Detroit, at least in the short run.

But the case can also be made that, after the embarrassment of Kwame Kilpatrick, it can only get better.

Two candidates are running in tomorrow's special election hoping to create a new Detroit.

Kilpatrick, of course, was the two-term mayor who was forced out following published text messages between him and his chief of staff, Christine Beatty, that seemed to assert what they both had denied, under oath: that they were having an affair.

The view here is that the private lives of politicians should, for the most part, be off-limits. In fact, allegations aimed at Kirkpatrick went far beyond the affair. But apparently Kilpatrick used city funds to facilitate their relationship and used city officials to cover up the affair. In March of 2008, Kilpatrick and Beatty were hit with a 12-count of indictment, charging perjury and obstruction of justice. That same month, the City Council, by a vote of 7-1, passed a nonbinding resolution calling on the mayor to resign.

In September, after months of denials, Kilpatrick pleaded guilty to two felony counts, resigned as mayor and briefly served time in prison.

He was succeeded as mayor by Kenneth Cockrel, the City Council president. Cockrel faces businessman Dave Bing, the former NBA great with the Pistons, in Tuesday's nonpartisan runoff election. Cockrel is thought to have a slight edge, while Bing, more of a political outsider, has been endorsed by the Detroit News and the Free-Press. In the initial, multicandidate primary in February, Bing led Cockrel by about 2,000 votes.

Here's the good news for the Republican Party of Virginia and its effort to get their candidate, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, elected governor this fall:

In the past 30 years -- as we wrote in breathtaking detail last Dec. 5 -- every winner has been the candidate from the party opposite of the person who was elected president the year before. And since the guy in the White House, Barack Obama, is a Democrat, that could portend good things for McDonnell.

But before Old Dominion Republicans are going to take back the governorship after an eight-year absence, they are going to have to get their act together.

Continue reading "Will The Virginia GOP Unite In Time For November?" >

Michael Olson left NPR's political unit after the 2008 elections to be a project manager for NPR in Austin, Texas. He offers this take on Democratic prospects in the Lone Star State's 2010 gubernatorial contest:

Democrat Tom Schieffer launched an exploratory committee for governor Monday in Austin. The announcement, which came 173 years (to the day) after Texas seceded from the Union, coincides with Schieffer's desire to have Texans leave the Republican Party. If Schieffer succeeds, he'd be the first Democrat to hold the office since Ann Richards lost the office to George W. Bush in 1994. Schieffer's relationship to Bush is getting attention in Austin.

Continue reading "Guest Blog: Will GOP Fratricide Help Dems in 2010 Gov Race? " >

I'm well aware of the irony in the header. After all, it's only been 200-plus years that residents of the District of Columbia have been clamoring for the right to have a voting representative in Congress. But Tuesday's vote that cleared the way for the Senate to begin deliberating on the bill -- the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act -- is only a first step. Or, maybe, a millionth step. Whatever, it's not the final step. (The Senate passed the measure today, 61-37. More on that below.)

Congressional passage may be the easy part.

 

First, how we got to where we are now. From the beginning, when Congress designed the District as the nation's capital, residents could not vote. They got the right to vote for president in 1964 and mayor in 1975, but their representative in Congress -- officially, a delegate -- cannot vote. (That was partially changed a few years ago when Congress voted to allow the delegate, since 1991 Eleanor Holmes Norton, to vote in committee, though still not on the House floor.)

Continue reading "D.C. Vote? Not So Fast" >

We've long understood, even before God gave us Rod Blagojevich, that there are some things you just can't make up.

Here's another one.

Even before her appointment to the Senate became official, when it was still in the rumor stage, Kirsten Gillibrand was attracting enemies within her own party, and none more so than her fellow member of Congress from New York Carolyn McCarthy. McCarthy was the Long Island housewife whose husband was murdered by a deranged gunman in a mass killing on the Long Island Rail Road in 1993. The tragedy -- and her outrage that her congressman voted to lift the ban on semiautomatic weapons -- propelled McCarthy into politics and national attention.

On Thursday, when Gillibrand's name seemed to go beyond the rumor stage as the choice of Gov. David Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, McCarthy went public with her opposition. Focusing on Gillibrand's 100 percent rating by the National Rifle Association, McCarthy said, "To have a senator representing the NRA for New York, that would be wrong. If it comes down to that, I will [run in the] primary in 2010."

On Friday, Paterson indeed did name Gillibrand. And McCarthy didn't back down.

McCarthy, in fact, was so outraged that ... wait for it ... she contributed $1,500 to Gillibrand's congressional campaigns in both 2006 and 2008. Tom Brune of Newsday has the details:

McCarthy's leadership PAC gave Gillibrand a $500 contribution for her first run for Congress in 2006, and doubled it to $1,000 for her re-election bid last June, according to federal campaign finance records.

McCarthy made the second donation June 5, months after Gillibrand had publicly signed on to a legal brief that drew attacks from McCarthy's friends among gun-control advocates because it urged the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Washington, D.C.'s, gun ban.

"Yeah, I gave her money. I didn't know what her stance was," said McCarthy, a Democrat from Mineola who has made gun control her signature issue since she first ran for Congress. ...

McCarthy said she was trying to help a Democrat win an uphill race in a conservative Republican district. She insisted she did not know about Gillibrand's strong pro-gun views.

Meanwhile, Brune reports that a new potential candidate for the seat has been added to the mix: former Gov. George Pataki (R). That may or may not be the reason why Rep. Peter King (R) "wavered a bit" as to whether he would run or not, saying Gillibrand "could be a tougher opponent than Caroline Kennedy," whom King was preparing to run against had she been appointed.

Jim Bunning, now a Republican senator from Kentucky, once pitched a perfect game against the New York Mets when he was with the Philadelphia Phillies. He was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1996.

He also spent nine seasons pitching for the Detroit Tigers. In fact, he was scheduled to sign baseballs on Sunday in Taylor, Mich. At $35 a pop.

It seems a bit unseemly for a United States senator to be selling his autograph, baseball great or not. But that's not the point of this post.

Bunning opposes the government bailout of the U.S. auto industry and voted against the House-passed bill last night, causing the deal to fall apart. Whatever you think of that position, it does have deep implications for Michigan and those whose livelihoods depend on the health of the industry. Nonetheless, Bunning was scheduled to come to the city of Taylor — the "deepest part of UAW country," according to the Detroit Free Press — to sell his autograph.

Bunning has gotten a rough shake from the press in recent years. Time magazine once listed him as one of the Senate's five least effective members. Free Press columnist Brian Dickerson notes that when Bunning barely won re-election in 2004 (while President Bush had an easy go of it in Kentucky), it was because "many Kentuckians suspected his elevator no longer went all the way to the top."

Well, Mr. Bunning will not be signing balls on Sunday. Jim Koester, the president of the Gibraltar Trade Center in Taylor, canceled the appearance altogether, having read about the senator's position on the bailout in the Free Press. Said Koester, "I simply cannot support anyone who, in my opinion, votes against the economic well-being of our great state."

Bunning is 13th on the all-time list of pitchers who hit batters. Looks like he got, if nothing else, a bit of a brushback himself.

It's not a fun time to be a Virginia Republican.

A state (oops, commonwealth) long dominated by the GOP, Virginia has elected Democrats in back-to-back gubernatorial elections — Mark Warner in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. Democrats have replaced GOP senators in two successive elections — Jim Webb ousting George Allen in 2006, and the aforementioned Warner replacing retiring Republican John Warner, no relation, last month.

In addition, three Republican House seats went from R to D this year: the 2nd District, where Glenn Nye unseated Rep. Thelma Drake; the 5th CD, where Tom Perriello apparently defeated Rep. Virgil Goode Jr.; and the 11th CD, where Gerald Connolly won the seat left by retiring Rep. Tom Davis. Democrats will now have a majority of the Virginia House delegation for the first time in eight years.

Oh wait, did I mention that a Democratic presidential candidate carried the Old Dominion for the first time since 1964?

It's under that cloud that Virginia Republicans are meeting in Richmond this weekend. There's another gubernatorial election coming up. Their candidate will be Bob McDonnell, the state attorney general. Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be bracing for a three-for-all, as state Delegate Brian Moran, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds and ex-DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe are all planning to run. There has already been some sniping among the candidates, mostly concerning McAuliffe's apparent candidacy. He's lived in McLean (Northern Virginia) for two decades, but he has hardly been involved in state government or politics. His name, in fact, had been floated not that long ago for governor of Florida.

Democrats have more to worry about than a bruising primary. There's that history stuff.

For the past 30 years — encompassing eight races for governor — the winner has always been of the opposite party of the person in the White House. That's good news for McDonnell and the GOP, now that Barack Obama will be president. Let's look at the record:

1977:
President — Jimmy Carter (D)
Elected governor — John Dalton (R)

1981:
President — Ronald Reagan (R)
Elected governor — Chuck Robb (D)

1985:
President — Ronald Reagan (R)
Elected governor — Gerald Baliles (D)

1989:
President — George H.W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Doug Wilder (D)

1993:
President — Bill Clinton (D)
Elected governor — George Allen (R)

1997:
President — Bill Clinton (D)
Elected governor — Jim Gilmore (R)

2001:
President — George W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Mark Warner (D)

2005:
President — George W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Tim Kaine (D)

With this in mind, Republicans should relax. They've got the governorship in the bag.

The charge is serious. And Mayor Michael Bloomberg is serious.

Plaxico Burress, the gifted and troubled receiver for the New York Giants, was arraigned yesterday for having an unlicensed (and thus illegal) gun in his possession early Saturday morning, when Burress accidentally shot himself in the thigh.

Anyone who knows Mayor Bloomberg knows that regardless of what football team he roots for, he is not a fan of guns. He hates them. He has campaigned around the country against them. He has a no-tolerance position on them. City law requires a minimum 3 1/2-year prison sentence for conviction on possession of a weapon. Bloomberg said that not prosecuting somebody like Burress would make "a sham, a mockery of the law."

There is a way out for everyone involved. I say this not only as a Giants fan. Well, actually, I say this as a Giants fan.

My solution: Have the City Council change the law, but just for Plaxico Burress. It's sort of like what Bloomberg did with the city's term-limits law, something that voters have twice passed. But since Bloomberg wants to run for a third term next year, and since he knows that the Big Apple without Bloomberg would cease to exist, he had the City Council change the law ... but just for him. It allows him to run for a third term. And then the city can resume its term-limits thing. And everybody will be happy

The law is important, as we all agree. Guns can be dangerous. But, like with term limits, sometimes the law is not absolute. Just ask Michael Bloomberg.