It's not a fun time to be a Virginia Republican.
A state (oops, commonwealth) long dominated by the GOP, Virginia has elected Democrats in back-to-back gubernatorial elections — Mark Warner in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. Democrats have replaced GOP senators in two successive elections — Jim Webb ousting George Allen in 2006, and the aforementioned Warner replacing retiring Republican John Warner, no relation, last month.
In addition, three Republican House seats went from R to D this year: the 2nd District, where Glenn Nye unseated Rep. Thelma Drake; the 5th CD, where Tom Perriello apparently defeated Rep. Virgil Goode Jr.; and the 11th CD, where Gerald Connolly won the seat left by retiring Rep. Tom Davis. Democrats will now have a majority of the Virginia House delegation for the first time in eight years.
Oh wait, did I mention that a Democratic presidential candidate carried the Old Dominion for the first time since 1964?
It's under that cloud that Virginia Republicans are meeting in Richmond this weekend. There's another gubernatorial election coming up. Their candidate will be Bob McDonnell, the state attorney general. Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be bracing for a three-for-all, as state Delegate Brian Moran, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds and ex-DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe are all planning to run. There has already been some sniping among the candidates, mostly concerning McAuliffe's apparent candidacy. He's lived in McLean (Northern Virginia) for two decades, but he has hardly been involved in state government or politics. His name, in fact, had been floated not that long ago for governor of Florida.
Democrats have more to worry about than a bruising primary. There's that history stuff.
For the past 30 years — encompassing eight races for governor — the winner has always been of the opposite party of the person in the White House. That's good news for McDonnell and the GOP, now that Barack Obama will be president. Let's look at the record:
1977:
President — Jimmy Carter (D)
Elected governor — John Dalton (R)
1981:
President — Ronald Reagan (R)
Elected governor — Chuck Robb (D)
1985:
President — Ronald Reagan (R)
Elected governor — Gerald Baliles (D)
1989:
President — George H.W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Doug Wilder (D)
1993:
President — Bill Clinton (D)
Elected governor — George Allen (R)
1997:
President — Bill Clinton (D)
Elected governor — Jim Gilmore (R)
2001:
President — George W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Mark Warner (D)
2005:
President — George W. Bush (R)
Elected governor — Tim Kaine (D)
With this in mind, Republicans should relax. They've got the governorship in the bag.
1:15 PM ET
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12-05-2008
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