Alaska Gov. Palin To Resign On July 26

The news that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president in 2008, will not seek a second term next year was not exactly a surprise. Her numbers back home had been in a nose-dive since last year's campaign and she's been feuding with legislators of both parties over the budget problems facing the state.

She's also found herself in many controversies away from home: battling with talk-show host David Letterman, giving mixed signals about attending a GOP fundraising dinner in Washington, and being blamed by some unnamed John McCain staffers for the party's defeat last year.

But few expected her to flat-out resign. On the one hand, it could give her more time to prepare for a 2012 presidential run -- while the conventional wisdom is that she still needs to work out her deficiencies to be seen as a serious candidate, polls show her popularity among Republicans still very high.

Or it could signal that she's had enough -- of the attacks and the ridicule she and her family have endured since she was named to the ticket in 2008.

Fourth of July fireworks started a bit early this year.

5:30 PM ET | 07-03-2009 | permalink

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Villaraigosa Says He Won't Seek California Governorship In 2010

In a surprise announcement, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said today he will not seek the governorship of California next year.

Villaraigosa has long been considering the race. With the other two major Democrats, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and state Attorney General/ex-Oakland Mayor/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown hailing from the north, Villaraigosa was thought to have a decent shot at the nomination.

Continue reading "Villaraigosa Says He Won't Seek California Governorship In 2010" »

4:35 PM ET | 06-22-2009 | permalink

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Is The White House Sweet On Senate Run For Lisa Madigan?

In a Junkie post yesterday, we talked about how Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D), who has long coveted the governorship, is being urged by Democrats to instead run for the Senate.

The reasons are clear. With the corrupt Rod Blagojevich gone, replaced by the apparently clean Pat Quinn, the argument for her to challenge a fellow Democrat for the governorship would be harder to defend. Meanwhile, the presence of Roland Burris occupying Barack Obama's Senate seat remains galling to many Dems.

But there is one major obstacle to a Madigan Senate bid, and it's not Burris. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) has been organizing a Senate bid for months and shows no sign of backing off.

So where do things stand?

Continue reading "Is The White House Sweet On Senate Run For Lisa Madigan?" »

10:53 AM ET | 06-18-2009 | permalink

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More Musical Chairs In Ill.? AG Madigan Urged For Senate

We've known for quite some time now that Lisa Madigan, the two-term state attorney general in Illinois, covets the governor's chair. There was little question that she was planning on challenging Gov. Rod Blagojevich in next year's Democratic primary.

The governor, however, spoiled the plans by getting himself enmeshed in a scandal involving his efforts to sell the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama to the highest bidder. Blago was subsequently arrested, impeached and removed from office. Before he was finally run out of town, he appointed Roland Burris to the Senate seat.

Blagojevich's departure elevated Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn to the governorship. And now, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's McDermott & Lambrecht, Madigan is "under pressure from top Democrats to abandon" her gov. campaign and instead run for the Senate -- "a switch she's seriously considering":

Continue reading "More Musical Chairs In Ill.? AG Madigan Urged For Senate" »

5:27 PM ET | 06-17-2009 | permalink

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The House Is My Castle? Delaware GOP-er In Tough Decision

One of the reasons the 2010 Senate race in Delaware has given Republicans hope is that Mike Castle, the state's at-large House member, is considering running.

Castle is extremely popular with members of both parties. He won a ninth term last year with 61 percent of the vote -- not his best showing ever, but remember, it was a year when Joe Biden was on the Democratic national ticket as well as seeking a seventh Senate term.

Biden, of course, was victorious in both of his races. When he resigned his Senate seat, he was succeeded by longtime aide Ted Kaufman, who immediately said he wouldn't run to hold the seat in the 2010 special election.

Of course he wouldn't. Kaufman, as everyone knows, is keeping the seat warm for state Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Joe, who is currently serving with the Delaware National Guard in Iraq. It's never been expressly said that young Biden will run for the Senate, but few doubt that's what's in the cards.

Continue reading "The House Is My Castle? Delaware GOP-er In Tough Decision" »

3:40 PM ET | 06-11-2009 | permalink

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Schakowsky Won't Challenge Burris In 2010 Illinois Primary

You remember Roland Burris, don't you?

He's the guy who was appointed to the Senate by then-Gov. (but the already-disgraced then-Gov.) Rod Blagojevich to fill the seat vacated by Barack Obama.

For an assortment of reasons -- everything from his ties to Blagojevich to, well, his ties to Blagojevich, he was seen as a certain lame duck, if not a dead duck, for 2010. His fundraising has been anemic, his polling numbers are weak, and there was no shortage of Democrats drooling at the thought of taking him on in next February's primary.

There's no reason to think that his situation has improved in the least. But one Democrat who had been mulling over a primary challenge, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, from Chicago's North Side, now says she won't run.

Continue reading "Schakowsky Won't Challenge Burris In 2010 Illinois Primary" »

9:36 AM ET | 06-08-2009 | permalink

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Earlybird Ratings Of 2010 Senate Races

Trying to predict the results of the 2010 Senate races in June of 2009 is probably a fool's errand, but I thought this might be a good time to do a ratings chart. And while many of you like to point out all the times I've been wrong in predictions -- as you should -- let the record show that I called every 2008 Senate race correctly (except Minnesota, assuming Al Franken is declared the winner).

Each party holds 18 seats that are up next year. But Republicans may have a tougher challenge, as five incumbents are retiring, compared with only one (the appointed Ted Kaufman of Delaware) on the Democratic side. And we still don't know if more retirements are in the making, if some surprise candidates may emerge, or how the public will view the Obama administration.

Having said that, here's a chart of all 36 Senate seats up in 2010:

Continue reading "Earlybird Ratings Of 2010 Senate Races" »

11:32 AM ET | 06-04-2009 | permalink

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Pawlenty To Skip 3rd Term Gov Bid; An Eye For WH In 2012?

While Minnesota residents are still awaiting the results of the Nov. 4 Senate race -- only 210 days ago, if you're keeping score at home -- at least they now know something about their governor.

Tim Pawlenty, a Republican, is to announce this afternoon he will not seek re-election.

Pawlenty, who was on John McCain's short list for VP last year -- he was, for the record, my personal prediction -- is thought to be looking at a 2012 presidential run. And no one wants to go into a presidential effort with a defeat back home. Yet that might have been the case had Pawlenty sought a third term.

Continue reading "Pawlenty To Skip 3rd Term Gov Bid; An Eye For WH In 2012?" »

2:29 PM ET | 06-02-2009 | permalink

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Connecticut's Dodd, Still Trailing But Improving, Up With New Ad

Here's some good news for Sen. Chris Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who is seeking a sixth term next year: He now trails his likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Rob Simmons, by 45-39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week. That 6-point margin is an improvement from the 16-point deficit he faced in the Quinnipiac poll back on April 2.

Here's the bad news: The poll shows that Connecticut voters still disapprove of Dodd by a 53-38 percent margin. His numbers have improved over the past two months, "but they are still lousy," said poll director Doug Schwartz. And businessman Merrick Alpert, a total political unknown who is challenging Dodd in the Democratic primary, is nonetheless getting a quarter of the vote.

Continue reading "Connecticut's Dodd, Still Trailing But Improving, Up With New Ad" »

10:52 AM ET | 05-29-2009 | permalink

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Specter Gets Primary Foe, But Burris Remains Most At Risk -- Top 5 Most Vulnerable List

Most likely to get knocked off in the 2010 primary? Burris tops our list.

The news that Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) may take on Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Democratic primary is not especially good news for the Pennsylvania senator, but it still doesn't compare to the precarious situation of Sen. Roland Burris.

The Illinois Democrat, appointed to the Senate by the disgraced Rod Blagojevich in his waning days as governor, found himself in the news once again this week. A federal wiretap installed during the investigation of Blagojevich reveals a conversation Burris had with Rob Blagojevich, the ex-gov's brother.

While Burris says nothing on the tape indicates he broke the law, his words DO contradict his earlier sworn testimony that he had not talked to anyone in the governor's office about the Senate post, vacated by Barack Obama when he became president. If nothing else, the tape shines a light on the process that brought him the Senate appointment. And the light is unflattering.

Burris makes it clear that he desperately wants the Senate seat and would be willing to help the governor raise money, writing a personal check if necessary. He never sent a check, apparently, but his overwhelming desire to get Blago's imprimatur for the Senate is a bit, well, sad.

Let's not forget that the Senate ethics committee is looking at Burris' statements. Let's not forget that the senior senator from Illinois, Majority Whip Dick Durbin, is clearly looking elsewhere for a Senate candidate. All of which keeps Burris atop our list of incumbents Most Endangered of Getting Knocked Off in the Primary Next Year.

Our top five:

Continue reading "Specter Gets Primary Foe, But Burris Remains Most At Risk -- Top 5 Most Vulnerable List" »

5:11 PM ET | 05-28-2009 | permalink

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Report: Sestak Plans To Challenge Specter In PA Dem Primary

Not every Democrat welcomed Sen. Specter's entry into their party.

A bombshell today from Brian Beutler in Talking Points Memo: Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak plans to challenge newly minted Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Democratic primary.

Continue reading "Report: Sestak Plans To Challenge Specter In PA Dem Primary" »

5:29 PM ET | 05-27-2009 | permalink

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Ark. GOP Senate Candidate: Sorry I Called Schumer 'That Jew'

Arkansas state Sen. Kim Hendren is, at the moment, the only Republican who has announced a challenge next year to U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). How much longer he will be a candidate is open to speculation.

Eric Kleefeld, writing in Talking Points Memo, reports that Hendren has apologized for referring to New York Sen. Charles Schumer (D) as "that Jew" at a county Republican meeting last week.

"I don't use a teleprompter and occasionally I put my foot in my mouth," Hendren told Arkansas blogger Jason Tolbert.

"At the meeting I was attempting to explain that unlike Sen. Schumer, I believe in traditional values, like we used to see on 'The Andy Griffith Show,'" he explained. "I made the mistake of referring to Sen. Schumer as 'that Jew' and I should not have put it that way as this took away from what I was trying to say."

Late Update: Hendren gave a further apology to the Associated Press. "When I referred to him as Jewish, it wasn't because I don't like Jewish people," he said. He also added: "I shouldn't have gotten into this Jewish business because it distracts from the issue."

And here's another Hendren effort in explaining himself further, courtesy of Zack Stovall of the Arkansas News:

"I don't care if he's Jewish, Muslim, Catholic or whatever," Hendren said. "Although I said there was another Jew that I did agree with, and that was Jesus Christ."

Early hunch: If Hendren is the GOP nominee, Sen. Lincoln wins.

3:34 PM ET | 05-14-2009 | permalink

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Bunning Surprises Us All, But Decision Is Subject To Change

Bunning threw a change-up on Saturday night.

We admit a bit of surprise at Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY) announcement over the weekend that he indeed intends to run for a third term.

Given his feuds with his fellow Republicans and his relatively paltry campaign fund, the betting was that he would use Saturday night's party event to say he was retiring.

A nice piece on the race tomorrow on Morning Edition by NPR's Adam Hochberg. As it has always been the case with Bunning's political career, you can't escape his baseball connections. Here's Adam's closing graf:

Bunning HAS left open the possibility he could still decide not to run if he can't raise enough money. But the big right-hander never has been one to walk away from a challenge. As a ballplayer, he was known to start games on just two days' rest and was often among the season leaders in innings pitched. Now, as he nears the end of his political career, he seems equally reluctant to hand somebody else the ball.

4:57 PM ET | 05-11-2009 | permalink

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Crist Senate Run May Result In Florida Gov. Free-For-All

Crist is expected to try again for the Senate.

By most accounts, it looks like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will announce his candidacy for the Senate tomorrow, in Tallahassee.

The news will not take many by surprise. Ever since Sen. Mel Martinez (R) announced in December that he would not seek re-election -- and after former Gov. Jeb Bush turned down entreaties to get him to run -- Crist has been the favorite among Republicans to hold the seat.

Continue reading "Crist Senate Run May Result In Florida Gov. Free-For-All" »

3:58 PM ET | 05-11-2009 | permalink

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Will Sen. Bunning (R-KY) Retire? 'Roll Call' Reports A Hint

We've long been reporting the precarious political position Sen. Jim Bunning is in as the Kentucky Republican ponders a third term next year.

Bunning has been feuding with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and others in his party. His fundraising has been weak. He has been snapping at reporters and party officials, more than usual.

Continue reading "Will Sen. Bunning (R-KY) Retire? 'Roll Call' Reports A Hint" »

6:00 PM ET | 04-30-2009 | permalink

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California Democrats Giveth & Taketh In 2010 Gov Race

Lt. Gov. Garamendi ends gubernatorial campaign to seek Tauscher House seat.

Sorry about the lisp in the header.

The race for governor of California next year, when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger steps down because of term limits, will be certainly one of the more high-profile contests of 2010. By definition, any California gubernatorial race is nationally significant, but this one -- with no incumbent in the race -- has drawn a virtual who's who of Democratic pols into the race.

Continue reading "California Democrats Giveth & Taketh In 2010 Gov Race" »

10:57 AM ET | 04-27-2009 | permalink

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Gavin Newsom Announces For Calif. Governor -- On Twitter!

What's so amazing to me about San Francisco Mayor Newsom's (D) decision to announce his candidacy for governor on Twitter is, with a 140 cha

2:42 PM ET | 04-22-2009 | permalink

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Alaska Gov. Palin Won't Challenge Sen. Murkowski Next Year

I'm usually not one who feels the way to make a point is to bash the media ... though sometimes they/we certainly deserve it.

But the ongoing speculation that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican primary seemed to be a media creation/fantasy from the start. Palin never even hinted she would mount a challenge, and I never saw anything from her people that it was even a possibility. Nonetheless, the rumors continued.

Until now.

Continue reading "Alaska Gov. Palin Won't Challenge Sen. Murkowski Next Year" »

4:02 PM ET | 04-08-2009 | permalink

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New Conn. Poll Shows Simmons Dead Even With Dodd, But ...

It's a long way to go before 2010, but Republicans seem to have gotten a bit of promising news in Connecticut, where Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is expected to seek a sixth term next year.

Today, former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) made it official; he'll run for the Senate. Simmons, who lost his own House seat in 2006, has been encouraged by a Quinnipiac University poll that shows him in a dead heat with Dodd -- 43 percent for Simmons, 42 percent for Dodd. Dodd has been getting some bad press over his alleged sweetheart deal with Countrywide Financial (click here to see Junkie post from Feb. 11).

Continue reading "New Conn. Poll Shows Simmons Dead Even With Dodd, But ... " »

4:51 PM ET | 03-16-2009 | permalink

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If Specter Loses Primary, Can He Pull A Lieberman?

A question from Gus Sperrazza of Washington, D.C.:

Is there any chance that Arlen Specter could lose his party's primary and run as an independent, a la Connecticut's Joe Lieberman in 2006?

Well, there certainly is a chance that Specter could lose his primary -- as we discussed on Monday -- but if he does, that's it for him. Pennsylvania law does not permit a candidate defeated in the primary to run as an independent (or on another party line) in the general election.

In the past half-century, of all the senators who were denied renomination in the primary, only two tried to keep their seat in November running as an independent or on a third party. The most recent, of course, was Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who lost the Democratic primary in 2006 to anti-war activist Ned Lamont but then mounted an independent effort in the fall to win a fourth term.

The other was Jacob Javits. The New York Republican, seeking a fifth term, was beaten in the 1980 Republican primary by Al D'Amato. Javits stayed in the race as the candidate of the Liberal Party; he had never served in the Senate majority and desperately wanted to have that chance. But all he did was split the liberal (small "l") vote with Democratic nominee Elizabeth Holtzman, and the divide on the left helped D'Amato win the first of his three terms.

Thomas Dodd, a two-term Connecticut Democrat, sought re-election in 1970. But he doesn't qualify for this list because not only did he not lose his party's nomination, he didn't even seek it. He was censured by the Senate in 1967 for redirecting campaign funds for personal use and found that he had no chance of getting Democrats to back him for a third term. So rather than seek renomination, he ran on a third-party line in the general election, unsuccessfully.

11:31 AM ET | 03-11-2009 | permalink

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Will Specter Survive A 2010 Primary? Will Gillibrand? Vitter? (Forget Burris)

Burris is the most, but hardly the only, senator vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2010.

Last week we speculated on the troubles Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is having with his fellow Republicans. But Bunning may not be the only senator who is in hot water with his own party in 2010:

Roland Burris. Nothing is certain in politics, but this is as close as it gets: Burris, the embattled Illinois Democrat, is not going to survive a primary should he decide to run for a full term next year. He may very well resist the calls by some in his party, including Gov. Pat Quinn, and the suggestions of others, such as Sen. Dick Durbin, that he resign. But for an assortment of reasons long spelled out here (and here for that matter), his political situation is quite precarious.

Continue reading "Will Specter Survive A 2010 Primary? Will Gillibrand? Vitter? (Forget Burris)" »

4:20 PM ET | 03-09-2009 | permalink

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Is The GOP Looking For a New Pitcher To Relieve Bunning?

It once seemed like Jim Bunning could get anyone out. Now, Republicans may be trying to force him out.

It would be fair to say that, no matter how you look at it, Sen. Jim Bunning has not had a good couple of weeks.

The Kentucky Republican, who is 77 and whose term expires next year, seems to be making the wrong kind of headlines with whatever he says or does, a la Alex Rodriguez. Bunning, a former baseball player himself -- he's a Hall of Fame pitcher to be more precise -- has been batted around lately for an assortment of reasons, almost all of them self-inflicted:

Continue reading "Is The GOP Looking For a New Pitcher To Relieve Bunning? " »

4:46 PM ET | 03-05-2009 | permalink

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Artur Davis Runs For Ala. Gov., Hopes To Break Race Barrier

Only two blacks have been elected governor since Reconstruction. California's Tom Bradley came tantalizingly close in 1982.

If Barack Obama, why not Artur Davis?

The racial barrier, which fell in last year's presidential contest, is now being tested in Alabama, for the first time in the state's history. Rep. Artur Davis, a 41-year-old Democrat serving his fourth term, announced he will seek the governorship being vacated next year by term-limited Republican Bob Riley.

The announcement was not unexpected. Davis had been eyeing the post for a while, even before he won re-election -- without opposition -- last November. But unlike the easy time he's had keeping his House seat -- ever since he unseated Rep. Earl Hilliard, a fellow African-American, in the 2002 Dem primary -- it may be tougher in the June 2010 Democratic primary. His opponents may include Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom (who briefly served as governor in the early 1990s) and Ron Sparks, the state commissioner of agriculture and industry.

On the Republican side, Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, is already running. James finished a distant third in the 2002 GOP primary won by Riley. Another possible is state Treasurer Kay Ivey.

It's tough enough for a Democrat to win statewide in Alabama, and so the odds against a black Democrat are probably more daunting. The African-American share of the electorate in the state is about a quarter; Barack Obama won just 39 percent of the vote against John McCain last year. Republicans have won five of the past six gubernatorial elections. But in 2002, when Riley won his first term, he didn't even receive a majority of the vote. And in 1994, when Fob James won, he barely surpassed 50 percent.

Davis, the Obama campaign chairman in Alabama, is clearly aware of the obstacles. "Yes, this will be hard, but if we find our way, we can build a state like we have never known," he said when he announced his candidate. "Not at some distant point called 'one day,' but right now, in our season." Check out this wonderful profile done by NPR's Debbie Elliott that aired on Morning Edition on Feb. 6.

Once before has an African-American sought the Alabama governorship: Dr. John Cashin ran against George Wallace (D) in 1970 as the nominee of the National Democratic Party of Alabama (a third party), getting 15 percent of the vote.

Here's a list of black major-party candidates for governor since Reconstruction:

1982 -- Tom Bradley (D-CA) -- lost to George Deukmejian (R)
1986 -- Tom Bradley (D-CA) -- lost to George Deukmejian (R)
1986 -- William Lucas (R-MI) -- lost to Jim Blanchard (D)
1989 -- DOUG WILDER (D-VA) -- beat Marshall Coleman (R)
1990 -- Theo Mitchell (D-SC) -- lost to Carroll Campbell (R)
1995 -- Cleo Fields (D-LA) -- lost to Mike Foster (R)
1999 -- William Jefferson (D-LA) -- lost to Mike Foster (R)
2002 -- Joe Neal (D-NV) -- lost to Kenny Guinn (R)
2002 -- Carl McCall (D-NY) -- lost to George Pataki (R)
2006 -- DEVAL PATRICK (D-MA) -- beat Kerry Healy (R)
2006 -- Ken Blackwell (R-OH) -- lost to Ted Strickland (D)
2006 -- Lynn Swann (R-PA) -- lost to Ed Rendell (D)

In addition, David Paterson (D), who became governor of New York in 2008 when Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned in the wake of a prostitution scandal, is expected to seek a full term this year.

11:12 AM ET | 02-09-2009 | permalink

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Update: Those Still Unfilled/ Undecided Senate Seats

Well, I checked under the tree yesterday, and there were still no Senate replacements in Illinois, New York or Colorado, and still no winner in Minnesota.

Disappointed, I went out and saw The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -- and came away even more disappointed. This had nothing to do with campaign buttons at all. They wouldn't give me my money back. The good news is that when I got home, I was 11 years old.

But back to those unresolved Senate seats. Here's the latest on the states, listed alphabetically:

COLORADO --

Gov. Bill Ritter (D) is obviously in no hurry to tip his hand on which Democrat he'll name to replace Sen. Ken Salazar (D) once he joins the Obama Cabinet as interior secretary. It seems that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who retains high approval ratings, is getting the most mention. The mayor told the Rocky Mountain News that he'd be interested in replacing Salazar: "To work in Washington at this critical time," he said, "at this moment in history, would be incredibly exciting and challenging and I think rewarding."

Also adding her name to the mix is former state Sen. Polly Baca, who would be the nation's first Hispanic woman in the Senate (as well as Colorado's first woman). It's a rapidly growing list, as retiring state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Rep. Diana DeGette, two-time Senate candidate Tom Strickland, Rep. Ed Perlmutter, former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Denver School Superintendent Michael Bennet and oil heiress Swanee Hunt have all either expressed interest in the appointment or have said they would consider it.

One name also being bandied about is Salazar's older brother, Congressman John Salazar, who for obvious reasons has been keeping a low profile as the jockeying intensifies.

There are risks for Ritter and the Dems with several of these choices. Some say DeGette may be too liberal to win statewide (though that's what they said about Mark Udall, who left his Boulder-centered congressional district to easily win a Senate seat this year). Of all the members of Congress out there, John Salazar's House seat may be toughest for the Dems to hold.

There are, for the record, some Democrats in Colorado who have ruled out the appointment. They include state Treasurer Cary Kennedy and former Denver Mayor and Clinton Cabinet official Federico Pena

Whoever is named will have to run in 2010, when Sen. Salazar's term would have expired.

Ritter will also have to name a successor to Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R), who was elected to Congress last month to replace retiring Republican Tom Tancredo. If Romanoff doesn't get the Senate appointment he could be the next Secretary of State.

(Sec/State update: see Wilson Pruitt's comment below.)

ILLINOIS --

The state House of Representatives meets again on Monday to discuss impeaching Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who has been accused of, among other things, offering to sell the Senate seat formerly held by President-elect Barack Obama to the highest bidder. Blagojevich, who was arrested Dec. 9 on corruption charges, has refused demands that he resign. One of his attorneys, Ed Genson, has told state legislators he wants them to subpoena more than a dozen witnesses, including Rep. Rahm Emanuel. It has already been acknowledged by Team Obama that Emanuel, who will leave Congress to become the new White House chief of staff, has had conversations with the governor and his former chief of staff, John Harris, about the Senate vacancy. (Harris was arrested with the governor last month.)

Also on Genson's subpoena wish list are Valerie Jarrett, who considered but then ruled herself out of Senate consideration, and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., once thought to be high on the list of potential appointees.

Now that list is in tatters. It is not clear who has been fatally compromised by the investigation. It is not clear when or if Blagojevich will be removed from office, and so it is not clear who will be appointing the next senator. Republicans, of course, would love a special election, which was once called for by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) -- a call that was muted once Dems realized they could lose the seat.

Naughty, not nice. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on Christmas Eve named Blagojevich as the "naughtiest" politician in 2008. He topped the list with 56 percent, followed by ex-New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer with 23 percent and former presidential candidate John Edwards at 19 percent. Spitzer and Edwards were involved in sex scandals.

MINNESOTA --

The news has not been good lately for Sen. Norm Coleman (R), who trails Democratic challenger Al Franken by 47 (count 'em) votes in the latest tally. The Coleman camp is claiming that anywhere between 130 and 150 votes in Democratic areas may have been counted twice, but the state Supreme Court ruled against the claim, saying there was no way of determining that short of going through still another hand recount of the 2.9 million votes that were cast on Nov. 4. Republicans are suggesting more legal challenges.

There are still some 1,600 absentee ballots that were incorrectly rejected on Election Day. But the court ruled that the votes won't be counted unless both sides agree on each individual ballot.

One thing is clear: There will be no winner declared in 2008, and probably not before Jan. 6, when the new Congress is sworn in.

NEW YORK --

If Norm Coleman is not having a good time of it, it's been worse for Caroline Kennedy. The daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy made it clear that she would love to be appointed to the Senate once Hillary Clinton is confirmed as secretary of state. That was all well and good. But then it no longer became well or good. Kennedy's "listening tour" of upstate N.Y., modeled after Clinton's 1999 tour, didn't go according to plan. Instead of people throwing bouquets at her, she found herself getting hit with words like "entitlement" and "elitism." She met with more politicians than real voters (a "drive-by visit," wrote the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle), took only written questions from the media (and then gave less than satisfactory answers), is refusing to answer questions about her finances (not until she's appointed, she says), hasn't opened up her checkbook to any New York Democratic candidate in the past decade (except for New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, reports the Daily News' Michael Saul), has a spotty voting record, and has backed away from committing to support the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City next year.

And on that last point, that's because one of her key sponsors for the Senate is thought to be NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Democrat who was elected mayor twice as a Republican but who is now an independent. Bloomberg had the City Council temporarily remove the two-term limit so he could run again in 2009. Bloomberg has been one of the city's most popular mayors in history, but there has been a bit of backlash to his end run around term limits. There are many indications that Bloomberg and his political machine are solidly behind Kennedy's Senate bid.

Meanwhile, there are more and more signs indicating that Gov. David Paterson (D), who will make the appointment, is starting to resent the "inevitability" of Caroline that her supporters are suggesting. (Not long ago, Paterson was thought to resent the efforts of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to get himself appointed. Caroline has apparently replaced Andrew -- who was once married to her cousin -- as the focus of his resentment.) The Daily News reports that at a Wednesday news conference, when a reporter suggested Kennedy was the front-runner for the spot, Paterson shot back, "How is she a front-runner?"

Others thought to be high on the list as potential appointees: Tom Suozzi, the Nassau County (Long Island) executive, as well as several members of Congress, starting with Steve Israel from Long Island, Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate and Brian Higgins of Buffalo.

Paterson, like Colorado's governor, does not seem to be in any hurry to name a senator. By all indications, an appointment may not come until late January or even February.

Whoever is appointed will have to run in 2010, to fill the final two years of Clinton's term, and then again in 2012.

That's it for me in 2008. Have a safe, healthy and Happy New Year, and I'll see you in 2009.

3:29 PM ET | 12-26-2008 | permalink

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Gubernatorial Races In 2009-10

It's cold outside, the economy stinks, and the Yankees still haven't signed Mark Teixeira. Worse, everyone is fleeing town. So what better time than now to list the states holding races for governor in 2009 (two) and 2010 (36). Governors whose names are in boldface are eligible to run again.

2009 -- 2 (2 Dem)

New Jersey: Jon Corzine (D) is likely to seek re-election. The Republican most often talked about is former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, but he has yet to announce his intentions. The GOP field is still being sorted out. Primary: June 2.

Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) is limited to one term. The Republican nominee will be Bob McDonnell, the state attorney general. Three Democrats have expressed interest in running: former state Del. Brian Moran, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds and ex-Democratic National Committee Chair Terry McAuliffe. The primary is June 9. Click here for more on the race.

2010 -- 36 (20 Dem, 16 GOP)

Alabama: Bob Riley (R) is term-limited. Among the Democrats looking at the race is Rep. Artur Davis.

Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) is expected to seek a second term. There have been some reports that Palin might take on GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the primary, but that's unlikely.

Arizona: Jan Brewer (R), the secretary of state, will become governor when Janet Napolitano (D) resigns to join the Obama Cabinet as secretary of homeland security. Brewer is expected to run in 2010.

Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D) is expected to seek a second term.

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is term-limited. Former Rep. Tom Campbell, eBay exec Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner are potential GOP candidates. List of possible Dems includes Mayors Gavin Newsom of San Francisco and Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi.

Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) is expected to seek a second full term.

Florida: Charlie Crist (R) is expected to seek a second term.

Georgia: Sonny Perdue (R) is term-limited. GOP field may include Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) is term-limited.

Idaho: Butch Otter (R) is expected to seek a second term.

Illinois: Rod Blagojevich (D) may resign early to become King of Neptune.

Iowa: Chet Culver (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) is term-limited. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is expected to run for governor.

Maine: John Baldacci (D) is term-limited.

Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D) is expected to seek a second term. Bob Ehrlich, unseated by O'Malley in 2002, is the most prominent Republican name mentioned.

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Michigan: Jennifer Granholm (D) is term-limited. Among the Republicans looking at this are state Attorney General Mike Cox, Secretary of State Terri Land and Rep. Peter Hoekstra, who recently announced he won't seek re-election to the House.

Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) may seek a third term.

Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) is expected to seek a second full term.

Nevada: Jim Gibbons (R) may seek a second term.

New Hampshire: John Lynch (D) is expected to seek a fourth two-year term.

New Mexico: Diane Denish (D) becomes governor when Bill Richardson (D) resigns to join Obama Cabinet as secretary of commerce. Denish was already planning to run to replace the term-limited Richardson.

New York: David Paterson (D), who became governor after Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned in the wake of a prostitution scandal in March, is expected to seek his first full term.

Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Oklahoma: Brad Henry (D) is term-limited.

Oregon: Ted Kulongoski (D) is term-limited.

Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell (D) is term-limited.

Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri (R) is term-limited.

South Carolina: Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited.

South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) is term-limited.

Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) is term-limited.

Texas: Rick Perry (R), who became governor when George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000, may seek a third full term. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is expected to run regardless of Perry's decision.

Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) is expected to seek a fifth two-year term.

Wisconsin: Jim Doyle (D) is expected to seek a third term.

Wyoming:: Dave Freudenthal (D) is term-limited.

Click here for our list of the 36 Senate seats up in 2010.

12:24 PM ET | 12-23-2008 | permalink

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Salazar To Interior Would Open Another Senate Seat

The buzz is that President-elect Barack Obama is close to announcing Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) as the next secretary of interior. The pick is a bit of a surprise for us — we were guessing it would be Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) — but if it's true, it will be the fourth Democratic Senate seat to open up in the wake of the Nov. 4 results: Obama's in Illinois (say, what's going on with that one?), Joe Biden's in Delaware, Hillary Clinton's in New York, and now the Salazar seat.

Colorado has been, to say the least, trending Democratic of late. In 2004, Salazar won a GOP Senate seat and his brother John did likewise with a GOP House seat. Democrat Bill Ritter won the governorship in 2006 after eight years of GOP rule as Ed Perlmutter (D) picked up a Republican House seat. This year, Rep. Mark Udall (D) won the Senate seat vacated by Republican Wayne Allard, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

And did we mention that Obama carried the state? He's the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Bill Clinton in '92 and only the second Dem since LBJ in '64.

If Salazar is indeed chosen to lead Interior, Brother John is perhaps the most widely mentioned name to succeed him. Other Dems thought to be in the mix include the current Denver mayor (John Hickenlooper) and a former Denver mayor (Federico Pena). Gov. Ritter would make the appointment, which would last until 2010, when Salazar's term was due to expire.

Unnamed sources say the only thing delaying the naming of Salazar is a background check. NPR's Jeff Brady suggests something else may be afoot:

Last week a coalition of over 100 environmental groups — many of them based in the West — signed a letter asking Obama to nominate Grijalva. He currently chairs the House Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests and Public Lands.

"Oregon and the rest of the West need an Interior secretary who understands the damage done over the last eight years and is willing and ready to step in and begin charting a new course for the department," said Steve Pedery, conservation director with Oregon Wild. "Representative Grijalva has demonstrated that he is ready to restore integrity at Interior."

As Salazar's name began to emerge Monday as Obama's pick, the groups behind that letter were clearly disappointed. The only ones pleased with the rumored pick were those in the agriculture and mining industries. During the campaign these folks, generally, were counted as supporters of Republican John McCain.

"Of all the names mentioned, Salazar is the one we're happiest with," said Dan Keppen, head of the Family Farm Alliance.

"Salazar is the first name mentioned that we could support," said Laura Skaer, executive director of the Northwest Mining Association.

It appears the environmental groups are beginning to concede they've lost their bid to have Grijalva nominated.

In a press release, Brian Vincent of the Oregon-based group Big Wildlife said it would "withhold judgment over President-elect Obama's selection of Senator Ken Salazar" and the group pledged to "hold his feet to the fire on key wildlife issues."

9:55 AM ET | 12-16-2008 | permalink

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Caroline Kennedy For Senate?

The New York Times is reporting that Caroline Kennedy will "pursue" the soon-to-be vacant New York Senate seat of Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton.

Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25 in Denver.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

 

Kennedy, daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy and niece of another Kennedy who previously held the seat — the late Robert F. Kennedy — decided "after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight." That, according to the Times' Nicholas Confessore, who reports that Kennedy will ask Gov. David Paterson (D) for consideration for the appointment.

Two years after JFK was elected president, his brother Ted won a Senate seat in Massachusetts, and brother Bobby was elected in New York two years after that. JFK's grandfather John "Honey Fitz" Fitzgerald, mayor of Boston, failed in a 1916 Senate bid against Republican Henry Cabot Lodge.

 

Sen. Clinton said she will resign the seat once she is confirmed to the Obama Cabinet.

There has been no shortage of names thrown in the mix of potential candidates for the Senate post. As we wrote on Dec. 2, the list is thought to include state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate, Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo, Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan, and Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi.

But Kennedy's name has always been the most intriguing. Despite near-universal name recognition, she has never taken an active political role until this year, when she endorsed Barack Obama's presidential candidacy and later served on his VP vetting team. She was even mentioned by some as a potential Obama running mate.

There had been some speculation that Kennedy's name was thrown out there simply as a distraction — that Gov. Paterson resented (according to some of the whispering going on) the ambitions of AG Cuomo, and the public mulling over of Caroline was an opportunity to buy Paterson some time to come up with an Anyone But Andrew appointment. (It should be noted that Caroline's cousin, Kerry, had a very public and very nasty divorce from Cuomo, so there's no love lost between them.)

(And you wonder how much warmth there is between Caroline and Hillary. The Clintons had lobbied hard for the endorsement of Sen. Ted Kennedy, and many in the Clinton camp were thrown for a loop when Ted and Caroline joined the Obama bandwagon.)

But it no longer looks like Caroline is a smoke screen. According to the Times' report, she wants it and has been lobbying Dem pols such as Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.

For the record, it should be pointed out that not everyone is falling over himself praising the possibility of Caroline Kennedy in the Senate. Rep. Gary Ackerman, a Democrat from Queens, said in a WOR radio interview last week, "I don't know what Caroline Kennedy's qualifications are. Except that she has name recognition, but so does J Lo. I wouldn't make J Lo the senator unless she proved she had great qualifications, but we haven't seen them yet."

On the Republican side, Rep. Peter King of Long Island says he is planning to run regardless of whom Paterson appoints. (There will be a special election in 2010 to fill the last two years of Clinton's term, and then another one in 2012 for the full term.)

No Republican has ever unseated a Democratic senator in New York.

Trivia question: Who was the first daughter of a president to run for public office? (First correct answer gets 15 seconds of fame in Political Junkie.)

2:33 PM ET | 12-15-2008 | permalink

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Sen. Hutchison Takes Step To Run For Governor Of Texas

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has filed the required paperwork to begin an exploratory committee to run for governor of Texas in 2010 — a move she seriously considered four years ago but ultimately decided against to stay put in the Senate.

Republican Rick Perry, the current governor, has given no indication that he plans to step down after his term ends. Hutchison's Senate seat expires in 2012 — but she is expected to resign once her gubernatorial campaign is under way.

I could write more on this subject, but heck, it's easier just stealing the following from my Political Junkie column of April 13, 2005:

Q: I have seen reports that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) may challenge Gov. Rick Perry in next year's Republican primary. I can recall governors challenging senators in a primary before (such as Arkansas Gov. Dale Bumpers against Sen. J.W. Fulbright in 1974, or South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow against Sen. Jim Abdnor in 1986), but not senators challenging governors. — Harvey Hudson, Eden Prairie, Minn.

A: I agree. I cannot think of a single instance in which a sitting senator has gone home to run against an incumbent governor of the same party in a primary. As it is, the list of senators elected governor is small; just four have made the move in the past half-century: Price Daniel (D-TX) in 1956; Pete Wilson (R-CA) in 1990; Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID) in 1998; and Frank Murkowski (R-AK) in 2002. And none challenged an incumbent to do so, in a primary or in the general.

Daniel ran only after Texas Gov. Allan Shivers (D), an ally, decided to retire. Both Wilson and Kempthorne succeeded retiring Republican governors (George Deukmejian and Phil Batt, respectively). Murkowski ran in Alaska to succeed a term-limited Democrat, Tony Knowles.

This year, Sen. Jon Corzine is the odds-on choice to be elected governor of New Jersey. Corzine's strength with Democratic county leaders is what forced acting Gov. Richard Codey, also a Dem, out of the race. But there was no primary. [Update: Corzine won, so add him to the list.]

And while I know there's probably more — and please write me if you know of them — I can only think of two other senators who ran for governor while still in office since senators were first popularly elected. In 1958, Bill Knowland, the Republican leader of the Senate from California, felt the best way for him to reach the White House was as a governor. The problem: Gov. Goodwin Knight, a fellow Republican (albeit more of a foe than a friend), didn't want to give up his job. A Knowland-Knight primary was averted when Knight gave way and ran for the Senate. As it was, both Republicans lost that year.

The other was Sen. Irving Ives (R-NY). When Gov. Thomas Dewey (R) announced late in 1954 that he wanted to retire, Republicans drafted Ives as their candidate for governor. He wound up losing to Averell Harriman, though he didn't have to give up his Senate seat.

One aside worth mentioning: Once upon a time, the thought of a senator going home to run for governor was seen as a step down. Why get lost in a sleepy state capital, the argument went, when you could be in Washington, where all the action was?

Many giants of the Senate — Hiram Johnson of California, Harry Byrd of Virginia, Richard Russell of Georgia, to name just a few — started off as governor. But lately, with partisan wrangling on Capitol Hill a constant and often tedious affair, the appeal of staying in Washington has lessened for some.

Pete Wilson, who served eight years in the Senate, said there was nothing more invigorating and stimulating than being governor. Dirk Kempthorne, who could have held onto his Idaho Senate seat forever, was anxious to go back home. A former mayor of Boise, he said when he left Washington that the power was shifting to the states, where the action was, and unlike D.C., where he was one of 100, he was now running the show.

Now that we've had our fun with political trivia, the bigger question is whether Hutchison will actually give up her Senate seat to challenge Perry. A source close to Hutchison tells me that anyone who says they know what she will do is lying, that a decision has still not been reached. But by all accounts, it looks like she's running.

That surprises me. Why would Hutchison give up a safe Senate seat to risk splitting the party back home? What did Perry do to invite a primary battle? Some Hutchison partisans have said that Perry has fallen down on the job and his numbers are declining, though I haven't seen much evidence.

And where is the White House in all of this? I don't know of any bad blood between President Bush and Rick Perry, who was W's hand-picked choice for lieutenant governor in his second term. So why is the administration silent? When conservative Rep. Pat Toomey challenged Sen. Arlen Specter in last year's Pennsylvania GOP primary, the White House didn't hesitate for a second — they embraced Specter, who clearly had a better chance of winning statewide, despite being closer ideologically to Toomey. But nary a word from Karl Rove about the Hutchison-Perry family feud.

Some have attributed Hutchison's decision to her public pledge to serve no more than two full terms in the Senate. I've also read that she is "tired" of commuting between Washington and Texas. That's all well and good, but do you make such a dramatic move because you're tired? Certainly, if Hutchison vacated her Senate seat, there would be a mad scramble among many Texas Republicans — state officeholders, members of Congress — to take her place.

The Perry people are prepared; they've circulated a video of Hutchison appearing with Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) at a Washington ceremony from last month in which the two briefly embrace and Clinton calls Hutchison "my partner on so many important fronts." Perry has defended the tactic; Hutchison called it a "political cheap shot."

Stay tuned.

1:16 PM ET | 12-04-2008 | permalink

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The House Is Home For Nita Lowey

Back in 1999, after Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York announced his retirement, the speculation about who would succeed him as the Democratic nominee was the talk of the town. Topping the list was the first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton, even though she didn't live in New York. So what, argued her supporters, pointing to both Bobby Kennedy and Jim Buckley when they ran for — and were elected to — the Senate, in 1964 and 1970 respectively. They just simply moved to the Empire State before the deadline.

Yeah, yeah, wrote the guy who wrote the Political Junkie column that appeared on the Washington Post Web site at the time. You can talk about Hillary running all you want, but it's just a fantasy.

The Bobby analogy doesn't entirely fit the Hillary situation. Kennedy's parents had owned a home in the Empire State since the 1920s. And he attended New York schools for six years until his father became ambassador to Great Britain. Hillary Clinton has no such roots.

I'll be the first to admit that this is a fun story. But she's not going to run. Rep. Nita Lowey, who represents a district that covers parts of Westchester, the Bronx and Queens, will be the Democratic nominee.

Well, that clown was clearly wrong. But here it is, all these years later, and that Senate seat is about to open up once again, once Clinton is confirmed as secretary of state.

The first name I thought of as a potential successor: Nita Lowey. She's still in Congress, in fact now in the majority, still fighting for abortion rights and health care. I pegged her as a strong choice for Gov. David Paterson (D) to consider.

But it's not going to happen. In an interview with the Associated Press yesterday, Lowey said she is going to remain in the House, that Paterson should look elsewhere.

Oh well. But not to worry. Even with Lowey taking herself out of the mix, Paterson has an easy choice to make. As Clyde Haberman wrote in The New York Times a week ago, "It should be a breeze."

Surely, in a pool that vast, Mr. Paterson will be able to find a gay, black, Roman Catholic woman with a Latino surname, thanks to her father, and a mother who was born in China to Christian missionary parents but who converted to Judaism. Oh, and this gay, black, Roman Catholic woman with a Latino father, etc., should live outside Rochester or maybe Syracuse. ... Thus will the governor be able to satisfy just about every constituency clamoring for the Clinton Senate seat.

A bit tongue-in-cheek, of course. But the list of possibles, and not-so-possibles, is huge. Alphabetically, it includes Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr., former President Bill Clinton, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate, Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo, Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island, Caroline Kennedy and her cousin Robert Kennedy Jr., Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan, Rep. Gregory Meeks of Queens, Rep. Jerrold Nadler of Manhattan, ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer (I swear I saw him mentioned), Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi, and Rep. Nydia Velazquez of Brooklyn.

The good news is that Clinton has said she is not going to resign until the new Senate confirms her, which is at least a month away. That gives Paterson, and us, more time to consider the 3 million people who are potential successors.

4:57 PM ET | 12-02-2008 | permalink

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Martinez Departure Could Be Start Of Rocky 2010 For Senate GOP

The decision by Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) to eschew a second term may not be the last shew (sorry) to drop among GOP senators who have decided enough is enough.

Already Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has said he will not run again for the seat he first won in 1996. And while Arizona's John McCain has said he plans to seek a fifth term in 2010, not everyone is convinced. Plus, there are questions about David Vitter (R-LA), who was caught up in a prostitution scandal; Arlen Specter (R-PA), who turns 80 in 2010 and has been battling cancer; and Bob Bennett (R-UT), who is approaching 77 years of age.

One possible bright spot for the GOP in Florida: Rumors persist that should Sen. Martinez leave early, Gov. Charlie Crist might appoint his predecessor as governor, Jeb Bush. And not a moment too soon, if you ask me, because it's been over four years since a Bush was on the Republican presidential ticket.

Below is a chart of the 36 Senate seats at stake in 2010:

DEMOCRATS (17): Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln), California (Barbara Boxer), Colorado (Ken Salazar), Connecticut (Chris Dodd), Delaware special (open seat — Ted Kaufman, appointed to replace VP-elect Joe Biden, will not run), Hawaii (Daniel Inouye), Illinois (awaiting an appointment to succeed Prez-elect Barack Obama), Indiana (Evan Bayh), Maryland (Barbara Mikulski), Nevada (Harry Reid), New York (Charles Schumer), New York special (awaiting an appointment to succeed Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton), North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), Oregon (Ron Wyden), Vermont (Patrick Leahy), Washington (Patty Murray), Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)

REPUBLICANS (19): Alabama (Richard Shelby), Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Arizona (John McCain), Florida (open seat — Mel Martinez retiring), Georgia (Johnny Isakson), Idaho (Mike Crapo), Iowa (Charles Grassley), Kansas (open seat — Sam Brownback retiring), Kentucky (Jim Bunning), Louisiana (David Vitter), Missouri (Kit Bond), New Hampshire (Judd Gregg), North Carolina (Richard Burr), Ohio (George Voinovich), Oklahoma (Tom Coburn), Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter), South Carolina (Jim DeMint), South Dakota (John Thune), Utah (Bob Bennett)

11:06 AM ET | 12-02-2008 | permalink

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Sen. Mel Martinez Won't Seek Re-Election In Florida

In a development that took the Republican establishment by surprise, Sen. Mel Martinez -- the former chair of the Republican National Committee who earlier served as President Bush's HUD secretary -- is expected to announce momentarily that he will not seek a second term. The St. Petersburg Times reports that Martinez may in fact leave the Senate in advance of his term in 2010, which would allow Gov. Charlie Crist (R) to appoint a replacement.

One of the Democratic Party's leading stars in the Sunshine State, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, is also expected to say she will forgo a Senate bid and instead seek re-election to her Cabinet post. Jim Johnson, who writes the StateofSunshine blog, says that no matter whom the Dems put up — he suggests state Sen. Dan Gelber — Martinez was in trouble.

He is not the darling of Florida conservatives. He is a former trial lawyer who backed President George Bush's immigration reform legislation -- a bill conservatives labeled 'amnesty.' Much like Senator John McCain, he just doesn't light the fire of the far right base of the GOP.

More to come.

10:35 AM ET | 12-02-2008 | permalink

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