Anyone's list of Republicans running for governor of New York in 2010 invariably starts, and stops, with Rudy Giuliani. The word on the former NYC mayor and failed presidential candidate is that he's always wanted that job. Even when he was running for the Senate, back in 2000 (setting up a prospective clash of giants with Hillary Rodham Clinton) -- a race that ended early because of his diagnosis of prostate cancer -- the feeling was he not doing what he wanted to do. And that is, running for governor.

Back then, the governorship was blocked by George Pataki, conqueror of Mario Cuomo in 1994, who stayed in office 12 years. Pataki was no fan of Giuliani's, especially after Rudy snubbed him for Cuomo in the '94 race.

Currently, New York is headed up by the weakest chief executive since Malcolm Wilson (R) served some 35 years ago. Wilson, like David Paterson (D) today, became governor only after the incumbent decided to quit. And while, on paper, Giuliani challenging Paterson makes complete sense for the Republican, the feeling here is that Paterson is not going to be the Democratic nominee next year; either he retires rather than stand up to the expected challenge by state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (which is what I'm guessing will happen), or he runs anyway and loses to Cuomo in the primary. And I don't think Giuliani can beat Cuomo in the general election.

That apparently is the feeling among the Giuliani people as well. The New York Times' Danny Hakim reports that the ex-mayor "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy, according to people who have been told of the decision":

His decision is a blow to many Republican leaders, who had viewed Mr. Giuliani as the strongest potential candidate in a year in which voter anger and anti-Albany sentiment appeared to be swelling.

The New York Daily News takes the story a step further; they are flatly reporting today that, according to sources, Giuliani "will run for U.S. Senate instead," taking on appointed incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand has managed to scare off serious primary opposition, despite her somewhat conservative voting record back when she was representing an upstate congressional district. (In January of this year she was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Paterson to replace now-Secretary of State Clinton.) But she has the strong support of the party elders -- read senior Sen. Chuck Schumer -- and will be well funded.

When you think back to all those big-name Democrats who were threatening to take her on in the primary, one might wonder about the degree of enthusiasm there is in her party behind her candidacy. Well, here's a name that will get them enthused: Rudy Giuliani. Despite his national acclaim in the wake of his leading the city following 9/11, many Democrats foam at the mouth at the mere thought of Giuliani. Conservatives may wince at Rudy's positions on abortion and gay marriage -- not to mention his own personal family-values history -- but Democrats are sour on him for an assortment of reasons, mostly on personality and the way he ran roughshod over them during his eight years as mayor. (And there's no telling how his longtime relationship with former NYC Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, who this month pleaded guilty to corruption charges, will play out.)

Lee Miringhoff, director of the Marist Poll, notes that while Giuliani trails Cuomo in a potential gubernatorial matchup, he leads Gillibrand by 54-40 percent:

A Senate win for Giuliani in this heavily Democratic state would be a huge national story. It would also be an equally huge embarrassment for the Obama White House. It could even rekindle any hopes Giuliani has about another presidential run.

Rudy Giuliani is a marquee name in GOP circles in New York. But, if he harbors any presidential aspirations, he needs to win something. His last electoral success was his re-election as NYC mayor in 1997... a lifetime ago in politics. His on-again, off-again campaign in 2000 and his truncated run for the White House in 2008 raise serious doubts about his electoral viability.

Yet, this may turn out to be a stroke of political acumen for team Rudy. A decision by Giuliani to run for the U.S. Senate may ultimately shake things up nationally as much as his decision to pull out of the race for governor has altered the political landscape in Albany.

There's no guarantee that Giuliani would have smooth sailing to the GOP Senate nomination. Pataki's name has been proposed, and while he left the governorship (voluntarily) after 2006 with poor approval ratings, he might want to stick it to the guy who stiffed him in '94.

For the record, the last time a New York Democratic senator, appointed or otherwise, was defeated in the next election? Never.

Hutchison says she will resign her Senate seat, just not yet.

Earlier this year, when the polls regarding her primary challenge to Texas Gov. Rick Perry looked more favorable, Kay Bailey Hutchison announced she would resign her Senate seat, probably in October or November, to focus entirely on her gubernatorial quest.

This week, the Republican senator reversed course, saying she will stay in the Senate in advance of the March 2, 2010 gov primary, though she promises -- it's "crystal clear," she says -- that she will leave sometime next year. She's staying because she wants to be there to fight Democratic efforts on health care and global warming, and she doesn't want to cede that to a Senate newcomer:

I realize this will keep me in the Senate past the primary election. ... These issues are too important to leave the fight to a newly appointed freshman senator who will be selected in the midst of a political storm. ... I will be resigning this Senate seat. For all of the good Republicans out there who plan on running for my Senate seat next year, make no mistake, this is going to happen.

The resignation timetable and the endless talk about it have clearly tripped up her campaign, to the benefit of Perry camp. Mark Miner, his spokesman, said, "Hopefully this will allow her to be a full-time senator for the people of Texas."

Meanwhile, she received a a high-profile endorsement yesterday from former Vice President Dick Cheney:

We westerners know the difference between a real talker and the real deal. When it comes to being conservative, Kay Bailey Hutchison is the real deal.

It was interesting to see Cheney take a swipe at Perry, who after all was George W. Bush's number two in Texas until Bush left for Washington after the 2000 election. However, there never were any indications that Bush and Perry were particularly close. CNN's Gloria Borger said Cheney's relationship with Hutchison "goes back to the days when they were both in Dallas, a time when Cheney served as Halliburton CEO."

The Associated Press' Jay Root writes that the Cheney endorsement "represents the highest profile endorsement Hutchison has gotten so far. Support from the former vice president, who remains popular with many conservative activists, could help Hutchison shore up her right flank." Here's a similar take from the Austin American-Statesman's Ken Herman:

This was a solid event for Hutchison. She and Cheney made liberal use of the word "conservative," a key effort as she works to chip away at Perry's image as further to the right. ...

For Hutchison, the endorsement is a big deal. Cheney, though seemingly omnipresent on other issues, has not been doing campaign events. I find no record of him endorsing in the recent gubernatorial race in Virginia, where he lives. I guess Bob McDonnell, now Virginia's GOP governor-elect, didn't see much upside in palling around with Cheney. The ex-veep's endorsement probably is more valuable in a GOP primary in a GOP state like Texas than it would have been in a general election in a swing state like Virginia.

Miner, the Perry spokesman, dismissed the endorsement as thus: "The Washington establishment usually sticks together." And the Wall Street Journal's Miguel Bustillo says that Hutchison's attempt to unseat Perry "remains an uphill battle":

Mr. Perry has built a large lead in polls with less than four months to go to the March 2 primary. In part, he has scored points using what's shaping up as a popular strategy for many candidates during this election cycle, with rhetoric portraying Ms. Hutchison as a Washington insider out of touch with down-home Texans. ...

The battle between Texas and Washington for Ms. Hutchison's time and attention has been one obstacle for the senator. She even had trouble attending her own rally with Mr. Cheney here Tuesday because she was voting on a military spending bill in Washington. That forced a two-hour postponement of her arrival. ...

Ms. Hutchison has accused Mr. Perry of not understanding the suffering of many Texans in the recession, among other charges. But political observers say the 16-year Senate veteran, initially elected on an outsider platform in 1993, has found herself swimming against an anti-Washington sentiment among conservative activists that is particularly strong in Texas.

Splitting her time between Texas and Washington has been "a deadly mistake," said Royal Masset, a GOP political consultant in Austin who is not working for either side. "This could not have been more perfectly set up for Rick Perry," Mr. Masset said. "This election is coming at just the right time for him, when there is this fear of socialism among some Republicans based on what is happening in Washington, and she is seen, fairly or not, as part of that Washington establishment."

For his part, Perry has received endorsements from establishment (Haley Barbour) and anti-establishment (Sarah Palin) figures as well. Perry said this week he expects Palin to campaign for him after the first of the year.

And speaking of endorsements and real conservatives, for the record, Perry's candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 was Rudy Giuliani, whose family values and position on abortion made him shall we say less than a favorite among religious conservatives.

Also running for the GOP nomination is conservative activist Debra Medina, whose roots are in the Tea Party protests. Democratic candidates include attorney (and former Bush business partner) Tom Schieffer, rancher Hank Gilbert and comedian Kinky Friedman, who ran as an independent four years ago.

Five months ago, I presented a first look at the 2010 Senate races and where they stood at that time.

Since then there has been a slight shift in the direction of the Republican Party in several contests, notably in Arkansas (safe D to D favored), Missouri (R loss to tossup), and Pennsylvania (D favored to tossup),

This chart does not include the Jan. 19 special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (currently held by stand-in Paul Kirk). That seat is currently rated as Democrat Favored, but could wind up as Safe Democratic following the Dec. 8 primaries.

Each party holds 18 seats that are up next year. Republicans are facing six retirements among their incumbents, compared to two on the Democratic side. Since my initial chart from last June, Jim Bunning (R-KY) and Roland Burris (D-IL) were added to the list of retirees.

Here's the latest on all 36 Senate seats up in 2010:

SAFE DEMOCRATIC (10): California (Barbara Boxer), Hawaii (Daniel Inouye), Indiana (Evan Bayh), Maryland (Barbara Mikulski), New York (Charles Schumer), North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), Oregon (Ron Wyden), Vermont (Patrick Leahy), Washington (Patty Murray), Wisconsin (Russ Feingold).

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (4): Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln), Colorado (Michael Bennet), Nevada (Harry Reid), New York special (Kirsten Gillibrand).

TOSSUP DEM SEATS (4): Connecticut (Chris Dodd), Delaware special (open seat -- Ted Kaufman will not run), Illinois (open seat -- Roland Burris will not run), Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter).

EXPECTED DEM LOSSES (0): None at the moment.

EXPECTED GOP LOSSES (0): None at the moment.

TOSSUP GOP SEATS (4): Kentucky (open seat -- Jim Bunning retiring), Missouri (open seat -- Kit Bond retiring), New Hampshire (open seat -- Judd Gregg retiring), Ohio (open seat -- George Voinovich retiring).

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (3): Florida (open seat -- George LeMieux will not run), Louisiana (David Vitter), North Carolina (Richard Burr).

SAFE REPUBLICAN (11): Alabama (Richard Shelby), Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Arizona (John McCain), Georgia (Johnny Isakson), Idaho (Mike Crapo), Iowa (Charles Grassley), Kansas (open seat -- Sam Brownback retiring), Oklahoma (Tom Coburn), South Carolina (Jim DeMint), South Dakota (John Thune), Utah (Bob Bennett).

A lot of attention was focused, deservedly, on last week's congressional race in New York's 23rd District, where a conservative revolt against the anointed Republican nominee helped elect a Democrat to that seat for the first time since the 1870s.

The decision by groups on the right, such as the Club for Growth, to back Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, against Republican Dede Scozzafava exposed an ideological faultline in the GOP that has ramifications for 2010. (Washington Post post-election interview with Scozzafava here.)

Yesterday the Club endorsed Marco Rubio, the former speaker of the Florida House, in his Senate primary race against establishment choice Charlie Crist, currently the governor. Club for Growth President Chris Chocola, a former Indiana congressman, dismissed the notion that their efforts could jeopardize GOP control of the seat:

The Club for Growth PAC has spent months studying this race, and we have concluded that either Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio would be heavily favored to win next November against likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. The only question now is what kind of Republican will Florida send to Washington next year: a pro-growth Republican with a record of fiscal conservatism or a big-government Republican with a record of tax increases?

Whether the Club can duplicate its House efforts in Senate races remain questionable; Roll Call's John McArdle writes it's much tougher to make a difference in a state as large and expensive as Florida.

Club for Growth is also targeting Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah, a conservative, for his efforts on behalf of the Healthy Americans Act. Chocola said Bennett's bill "is a health care nightmare. Rather than lowering the cost of care by increasing competition, it turns control of our health insurance system over to the government."

Bennett has been targeted by the right for renomination, but got some good news last week when state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff, a favorite of conservatives, withdrew from his challenge to Bennett because of the precarious health of his daughter.

Meanwhile, there seems to be a family feud going on in the Democratic Party as well, in the wake of Saturday's House vote on health care. Prior to its passage, Speaker Nancy Pelosi allowed the House to vote on an anti-abortion amendment, sponsored by Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak, that would prevent women eligible for government tax credits for health insurance from using that money to enroll in any plan that covers abortion. It passed overwhelmingly, with 64 Democrats on board.

That vote, reports Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence, has enraged abortion-rights activists like Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL ProChoice America, who was in a "fighting mood" during an interview yesterday:

"There's elections coming up in 2010. We will know who stood with us and who stood against us," she told me. The latter, she said, may face primary challenges. "Nothing's off the table," she said. "It's a new day and I'm here to tell you we're going to hold those accountable who voted against us." This would be a departure. According to Keenan, her group has supported a challenger in a Democratic primary only once.

And the MoveOn.org PAC sent out a fundraising letter today denouncing the "dozens of conservative House Democrats" who voted against the health-care bill.

We've got to show that voters will make them pay a political price for standing in the way of health care reform--and send a message to any Democrats in the Senate who are considering doing the same.

So we're rushing to launch a major new TV ad campaign in the home districts of the Democrats who voted against the bill--spending more than ever before on ads to hold Democrats accountable. ...

This is a defining moment for the Obama era, because fence-sitting Democrats in Congress are watching carefully to see what happens to those who oppose real change. If they see that there are no negative consequences for those who voted "no" in the House, it'll become much harder to win a final victory on health care--or on any of the other issues we care so much about.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said today he expects the health-care bill to go to the Senate floor next week.

Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell, one of the state's most popular politicians, said yesterday that she would not seek re-election in 2010. The surprise move jolted her fellow Republicans and gave Democrats hope of winning the governorship for the first time since 1986.

Rell became governor on July 1, 2004, following the resignation of scandal-plagued John Rowland (R), who later went to prison. At one point during her tenure, her numbers were the highest in state history. But, as the Hartford Courant's Keating & Lender report, things haven't been so rosy lately:

With unemployment increasing, the state budget has a projected deficit as high as $624 million, and Rell expects continued clashes with the Democratic-controlled legislature.

There have been other problems as well:

Although Rell came into office trumpeting ethics and good government, her administration has had several close encounters with ethical questions. In December 2005, Rell suspended her chief of staff, M. Lisa Moody, for two weeks without pay after The Courant revealed that Moody violated an ethics policy on state time at the Capitol by telling top appointees to distribute tickets for a Rell campaign fundraiser at the Marco Polo restaurant in East Hartford.

Rell and Moody also have received some unfavorable press in the past two months, with newspaper stories revealing that e-mails showed Rell's Sept. 1 vow to veto "pork" items from the Democrat-approved budget bill came after administration lawyers told her it would be unconstitutional and that a $223,000 taxpayer-funded study on government efficiency had produced political advice for Rell. The study is now under investigation, and the state attorney general has issued at least one subpoena seeking documents.

Her decision leaves the GOP a bit blindsided:

Rell, 63, clearly would have been the Republicans' best weapon in 2010. She received the highest approval rating for any modern Connecticut governor -- 83 percent -- in the January 2005 Quinnipiac University poll. This past September, after a year of state budget woes, she scored her lowest rating -- a still-enviable 59 percent.

The CT News Junkie blog talks a little more about Rell's falling numbers:

Rell's decision in September to allow the state budget to go into effect without her signature proved unpopular with the voters. It was the first time Rell's poll numbers dropped to an all-time low of 59 percent. But even though her approval rating dropped, 57 percent of voters polled said they definitely or probably vote for her in the next election. Now they won't get a chance.

An all-but-certain GOP candidate is Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, who has long said he would run if Rell did not. Other potential Republicans include House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero and Senate GOP Leader John McKinney. While there was some speculation that former Rep. Rob Simmons would drop out of the Senate race to run for governor, he said he will stay where he is.

The Box Turtle Bulletin, a pro-gay rights blog, said it will miss Rell, calling her a "shining star of decency within the Republican Party and it will be diminished by her retirement."

Nathan Daschle, the executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, was pleased with the turn of events:

We are fortunate to have a strong field of Democratic candidates who are well-known public servants, each of whom has the knowledge, leadership, and judgment to guide the state through these tough economic times. Moving Connecticut into our list of top-tier pickup opportunities means that the DGA will invest in the state to ensure a Democrat wins in 2010.

Democrats looking at the governor's race include Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy, former House Speaker James Amann, state Sen. Gary LeBeau, and Ned Lamont, who defeated Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic Senate primary. Here is Lamont's announcement today about his exploratory committee.

Here is a list of other governors who are stepping down after 2010:

Alabama -- Bob Riley (R) (term limited)
California -- Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) (term limited)
Florida -- Charlie Crist (R) (running for Senate)
Georgia -- Sonny Perdue (R) (term limited)
Hawaii -- Linda Lingle (R) (term limited)
Kansas -- Mark Parkinson (D) (retiring)
Maine -- John Baldacci (D) (term limited)
Michigan -- Jennifer Granholm (D) (term limited)
Minnesota -- Tim Pawlenty (R) (retiring)
New Mexico -- Bill Richardson (D) (term limited)
Oklahoma -- Brad Henry (D) (term limited)
Oregon -- Ted Kulongoski (D) (term limited)
Pennsylvania -- Ed Rendell (D) (term limited)
Rhode Island -- Don Carcieri (R) (term limited)
South Carolina -- Mark Sanford (R) (term limited)
South Dakota -- Mike Rounds (R) (term limited)
Tennessee -- Phil Bredesen (D) (term limited)
Vermont -- Jim Douglas (R) (retiring)
Wisconsin -- Jim Doyle (D) (retiring)
Wyoming -- Dave Freudenthal (D) (term limited)

Well, here's something I didn't expect, even though the polls suggested it was the logical conclusion.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has dropped out of the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in California.

Newsom, who attracted national attention for his efforts to legalize same-sex marriage, cited a "young family and responsibilities at city hall."

He had badly trailed state Attorney General Jerry Brown in all the polls and in fundraising. Brown has yet to officially declare his candidacy, but it's a foregone conclusion. Especially so since there has been a stream of Democratic dropouts: first Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, then Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and now Newsom.

Brown, now all but unopposed for the nomination, was elected to the first of his two terms as governor in 1974.

Three Republicans are seeking their party's gubernatorial nomination: Former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell. The current gubernator, Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), is term limited.

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Sen. Hutchison voted for the Bush plan to rescue the finance industry, not the Obama plan.

Yesterday's post on the 2010 Texas gubernatorial race -- focusing on the news that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has sold her DC-area home (a further indication that she is indeed serious about her GOP primary challenge to Gov. Rick Perry) -- needs two clarifications.

First, I wrote that she voted in favor of the Obama financial industry bailout; that was incorrect. She actually voted for the Bush plan -- the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 -- on Oct. 1 of that year, a bill that allowed the Treasury Secretary to purchase some $700 billion of troubled assets from banks and other financial institutions. It passed by a vote of 74-25. But she did not vote for any Obama economic bailout or stimulus package measures. (Yesterday's post has been changed to reflect that.)

And second, in listing Democratic candidates for governor of Texas, I omitted Hank Gilbert. Gilbert, his party's nominee for state Agriculture Commissioner in 2006, is a cattle rancher who is focused on improving state highway projects and fighting for private property rights.

If there are doubts that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) will really really really give up her Senate seat to challenge Texas Gov. Rick Perry in next year's GOP primary, it's understandable. She went through the same waltz in 2006, only to back down at the last minute.

But this time she looks like she's in the race to stay. The latest indication: she has sold her home in the DC suburb of McLean, Va. She and her husband, the former GOP activist Ray Hutchison, took a loss in selling their 4,300 square foot home for $1.4 million on Oct. 2. Jennifer Baker, her campaign spokesperson, said, "She's moving back to Texas to be the governor and she looks forward to living in the governor's mansion."

As for when Hutchison will resign her Senate seat to focus on the gov race fulltime -- which she has vowed to do -- that is not clear. We wrote in July that she was planning to vacate her seat in either October or November. Now there's talk she might not resign before the March 2 primary, if at all, as per the AP's Jay Root:

Now she says it depends on what's happening in Congress -- and held out the possibility that she may not step down before the March Republican primary showdown with Gov. Rick Perry.

"A lot of people are suggesting that," she told a radio show this week.

The uncertainty is fueling unrest among a cadre of candidates who are counting on Hutchison to quit, either so they can run for her seat or for some other political job left vacant by the Senate wannabes.

Her Senate seat doesn't come up until 2012.

With less than five months to go before their collision, the Perry-Hutchison primary may be one for the ages. The two don't like each other, and neither do their supporters. They also appeal to different segments of the party; Perry is strong with evangelical conservatives, Hutchison (even though she too is a conservative) with more of the moderates.

Her appeal at the ballot box is more impressive than Perry's. In her four general elections, starting with ther 1993 special in which she succeeded Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen, she got 67%, 61%, 65% and 62% of the vote. In 2006, while she was getting 62 percent, Perry won a four-way re-election contest with just 39 percent of the vote. Perry, now the longest serving governor in Texas history, has suffered with the voters, as many governors do, because of all the unresolved problems, like decaying infrastructure, education funding, property taxes and budget shortfalls.

But he still may have the advantage. Her vote in favor of the financial-services rescue in the waning months of the Bush administration was not popular in Texas; at least the Perry campaign is trying to keep it alive as an issue. The governor's press secretary has referred to her as "Kay Bailout."

Neither candidate faces a shortfall of money.

The Democratic race for governor in this still-Republican state is still in its early stages; former state legislator Tom Schieffer and singer/2006 candidate Kinky Friedman have announced.

If Hutchison does resign her Senate seat, Perry will choose her successor. Among those Republicans high on the list include Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Attorney General Greg Abbott. Democrats lining up to run in the event of a vacancy include Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp, both of whom are well financed. Democrats haven't won a Senate race here since 1988, when Bentsen was on the ballot twice, for senator and vice president. Two years later, Ann Richards was elected governor, and Democrats haven't won that office since then.

The record of appointed Texas senators seeking re-election is not great. When Sen. Lyndon Johnson (D) was elected vice president in 1960, the governor appointed William Blakley to fill his seat; Blakley then went on to lose the special runoff election to John Tower, who became the first Texas Republican senator since Reconstruction. And when former Rep. Bob Krueger (D) was appointed to succeed Bentsen in the Senate, in 1993, he got clobbered by Hutchison by more than two-to-one in the special.

Some brief Arizona political observations from an all-too-brief visit over the weekend to member station KJZZ:

SENATE: For all the talk about how conservatives distrust John McCain (R) -- which is hardly a new topic nationally -- there doesn't seem to be any threat to his expected fifth-term Senate bid. I wasn't totally convinced, following last year's presidential campaign, that McCain would run again. But he has not faded to the sidelines in the Senate, and in fact has resumed his role as a major player. His comments, whether supportive of President Obama or not, regularly make national headlines.

McCain looks likely to get a challenge in the Aug. 24, 2010 primary from Chris Simcox, the co-founder of the anti-illegal immigrant Minutemen group. Immigration is one of the major issues in which McCain differs from many of those in the GOP; the senator has long been talking more about helping immigrants blend into society and get jobs and less about punishment and deportation. But it's hard to see Simcox making any headway.

A more interesting primary challenge to McCain has been suggested by supporters of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, a conservative who lost his House seat in 2006.

Continue reading "Arizona Update: GOP Gov Field Grows; Will Hayworth Take On McCain?" >

Republicans got their dream candidate for the open Senate seat in Delaware, as Rep. Mike Castle made it official today:

We need the strongest and the most experienced leadership we can find in this country today. I hope to be able to bring that to the United States Senate.

Castle, a moderate Republican congressman who has been elected statewide 12 times -- nine as Delaware's at-large House member (since 1992), twice as governor (1984 & 1988) and once as lt. gov. (1980) -- has long been thought to be looking at the Senate. Republicans had tried to push the aging Sen. Bill Roth (R) into voluntary retirement rather than seek a sixth term in 2000 in order to have Castle run. But Roth refused to back off and went on to lose his seat to Democrat Tom Carper.

Since then, Castle had said he would never challenge Carper or the state's senior senator, Joe Biden. But when Biden was elected vice president last year, Castle gave the Senate another look. And today he jumped into the race.

With Biden gone, the Democratic governor named Ted Kaufman, a longtime ally of the VP, to be the Senate placeholder; Kaufman immediately said upon his appointment that he would not run in 2010. No surprise there. Everyone saw the Kaufman appointment as a sure sign that he's holding the seat for Beau Biden, Joe's son, who is the state attorney general. The apparent reason young Biden wasn't picked was that, as a member of the Army National Guard, he was sent to Iraq for a year's tour. He's back now -- he returned to Delaware last week -- but he has yet to address his plans for 2010.

Believe me, he's running.

Joe Biden won a Delaware-record seven Senate races, and Delaware is pretty much a blue state. But Castle is extremely popular. Even with Joe Biden on the ballot last year as a candidate for both vice president and senator, Castle won a ninth House term with 61 percent of the vote.

Speaking of his House seat, with Castle leaving, the Democrats should win it for the first time since 1990 (when Carper was re-elected). They've recruited former Lt. Gov. John Carney to run; Carney had openly sought the Senate appointment, but had said if he was selected he wouldn't have made way for Beau Biden.

Continue reading "Castle Jumps In Delaware Senate Race; Awaiting Word From Young Biden " >

California Republicans, out of favor with the voters after six declining years of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and undergoing a drought of more than 20 years since their last U.S. Senate victory, held their party convention over the weekend in the desert at Coachella Valley. The idea was to rally the troops and show off their candidates for 2010.

But divisions between moderates and conservatives continue to stand in the way of unity.

There seems little doubt that the party would love to put forward two women for higher office -- governor and the Senate -- two women who are less ideological and more business-oriented. Meg Whitman, the former chief executive of eBay, is choosing the governorship to make her first bid for public office. Carly Fiorina, the ex-Hewlett-Packard chief exec, is making her maiden political effort a run for the Senate seat held by three-term Democrat Barbara Boxer. (Fiorina, who is undergoing treatment for breast cancer, did not attend the weekend convention.)

But what do they stand for? And what conservative principles do they hold? That's the objection we're hearing from the right. And, in a Republican primary, the right is usually the side holding most, if not all, the cards.

Continue reading "California Republicans Trying To Figure Out Road Back To Power" >

A Marist College Poll released today shows that 62 percent of New York voters say the Obama administration was wrong to suggest that Gov. David Paterson (D) opt out of the 2010 gubernatorial race.

The White House made it clear earlier this week that, given his anemic poll numbers, Paterson should stand aside and let a stronger candidate run. Only 27 perent said the administration was right to get involved.

But at the same time, by a 63-25 percent margin, voters also said they don't want Paterson to run next year. His approval rating, according to Marist, is "at an all time low." Only 17 percent said he is doing "either an excellent or good job in office, while a whopping 44 percent say is performing poorly."

In the New York Senate race, a hypothetical matchup between appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) and Rudy Giuliani (R) shows the former NYC mayor with a 51-40 percent lead. Gillibrand also trails ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) by a 45-41 percent margin. Neither Republican has announced a Senate candidac, but the New York Post reported on Tuesday that Pataki hasn't ruled it out.

For better or worse, the people of this state know me pretty well," Pataki said. "So if I am going to make a decision at some point to again enter the elected arena, I could do it a lot further down the road."

Pataki added, "It's flattering that people are asking me to run for things."

Intervention comes in many forms. President Lyndon Johnson, expanding on the thousands of "advisers" JFK sent to Vietnam, dramatically increased U.S. involvement in that war in 1965. President George W. Bush, in the aftermath of 9/11, decided that the way to respond was to invade Iraq.

The latest presidential intervention won't result in nearly as many casualties, but that doesn't mean people won't emerge unscathed.

I'm talking, of course, about the report that President Barack Obama and his political team have made it clear that they want New York Gov. David Paterson to step aside and not run next year, claiming that he would be a drag on his fellow Democrats.

Continue reading "LBJ Had Vietnam. Bush: Iraq. For Obama, It's New York State." >

Thus far, there have been five Senate appointees since the 2008 elections: Michael Bennet in Colorado, Ted Kaufman in Delaware, Roland Burris in Illinois, Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, and George LeMieux in Florida. All are Democrats except for LeMieux. Only Gillibrand and Bennet are running for a full term in 2010.

And now Bennet is the only one with a serious primary problem.

Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) will officially declare his candidacy on Wednesday. Romanoff, who had to leave the state legislature last year because of term limits, is, according to the Denver Post, "often credited with helping Democrats take back the majority" in the state House.

Perhaps his challenge is just pique; perhaps he's still fuming that Gov. Bill Ritter (D) chose Bennet instead of him for the Senate seat vacated by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. Whatever, the 2010 primary battle is giving some Colorado Democrats fits, though most members of the state's congressional delegation -- Sen. Mark Udall and Reps. Jared Polis, John Salazar and Betsy Markey -- are backing Bennet. On the other hand, Reps. Ed Perlmutter and Diana DeGette have decided to stay neutral, and Romanoff has picked up endorsements from several key local party officials who were pushing Romanoff for the Senate after Salazar was named to the Cabinet.

(The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is backing Bennet "unequivocally.")

While the Democrats may end up in a fierce family feud, Republicans have come up with a potentially top-notch candidate: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, who officially announces tomorrow. Other likely GOP candidates include Weld Co. District Attorney Ken Buck and former state Sen. Tom Wiens.

2010 is a long way off, of course. But as Washington Post columnist Dan Balz wrote recently:

Although Colorado has shifted from red to almost solidly blue in its representation, it remains a purple state politically, especially given the size of the unaffiliated vote, which can shift with the tides. Some strategists say Democrats may have reached their high-water mark in 2008. What happens over the next 14 months will show whether they can consolidate and solidify those earlier victories, or whether Republicans can begin their comeback.

The "you lie" outburst by Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) during President Obama's health-care speech Wednesday evening brought the four-term lawmaker national attention, good and (mostly) bad. And it's led to a noticeable effort to raise money.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is going all out to use the incident as a fundraising tool. Its Web site's home page has a bold header that reads, "HOLD THE GOP ACCOUNTABLE -- STAND AGAINST REP. JOE WILSON'S UNACCEPTABLE OUTBURST," accompanied by a nearby link that says "CONTRIBUTE." Here's more from DCCC Executive Director Jon Vogel:

Calling the President of the United States a liar in front of the nation is a new low even for House Republicans and it deserves the strongest response we can give. That's why we're issuing a special Rapid Response Alert.

Help us raise $100,000 in the next 48 Hours to send a message to Republicans like Congressman Joe Wilson that we will not stand for our President to be called a liar in front of the nation.

Some of the results have been immediate. Rob Miller, the Iraq War veteran who held Wilson to 54 percent of the vote in 2008 and is running again, reports receiving more than $750,000 from over 20,000 individual contributors since Wilson became a household name. That already surpasses the $631,960 he raised for last year's campaign.

Continue reading "Assessing Joe Wilson's Re-Election Chances" >

Far be it for me to dispute the New York Post.

But a feature article today, written by Maggie Haberman, says that "disgraced" former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in March of 2008 following his involvement in a prostitution scandal, "has been privately talking with friends about a possible comeback, and is considering a run for statewide office next year" -- either running for state comptroller against appointed incumbent Tom DiNapoli, or challenging appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Either challenge would be waged in the Democratic primary. There is no open statewide post up in 2010 and none held by a Republican.

The newspaper, always colorful and sophisticated, calls Spitzer "the hooker-happy Democrat."

But the article also points out that recent polls "have shown him more popular" than Gov. David Paterson (D), "whose own numbers have tanked." The article says that Spitzer:

has been looking at avenues for a return to elective office, even if it means mounting a challenge against a fellow Democrat. ... [DiNapoli] is widely seen in Democratic circles as a weak link on the ticket. Gillibrand is similarly viewed as ripe for a primary challenge, with large numbers of voters saying they have no opinion of her.

Spitzer has suggested in recent interviews that he's not interested subjecting his family to the rigors of another campaign -- although he has seemed to stop short of ruling it out.

"If by politics you mean running for office again, I've a hard time seeing politics as a career. I wouldn't want to put my family through the agony," he told Vanity Fair magazine in its July issue.

"But that doesn't mean I can't participate somehow in the public debate about the issues."

Look, I love crazy political stories as much as you do, but seriously. Or as they might say in New York, gimmeabreak. (What's the matter, is Mark Sanford not available?)

Forget it, it's not going to happen. Between Paterson's woes, the resulting bad feelings from the circus with the state legislature in Albany, and the fact that three of the statewide incumbents running next year -- Paterson, DiNapoli and Gillibrand -- all got their posts by appointment, the last thing the under-siege Democrats need is for Eliot Spitzer to return to the scene.

(And here's a p.s. that I can't avoid. Remember all the outrage over the two Democrats who became Republicans earlier this year and handed the state Senate to the GOP? One was a crook who didn't live in his district, the other slashed his girlfriend with glass? Remember the outrage? Have you heard any of that outrage since they returned to the Democratic fold and returned control to the Dems? Just sayin'.)

Here are two things we have long assumed about Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

One, she will challenge Gov. Rick Perry in next year's Texas gubernatorial primary. Yes, I know, it should be more than just "assumed," but she made similar statements in 2006 and never followed through with it. But this time she appears serious.

And two, because of the challenge, she has been expected to resign from the Senate, perhaps later this fall.

Now the story gets confusing.

Continue reading "Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison Clarifies Resignation Talk, Kinda Sorta" >

Sen. Jim Bunning, a two-term conservative Republican from Kentucky who has been plagued by party infighting, poor fundraising and weak polling numbers, announced today he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Bunning in fact blamed his fellow Republicans for standing in his way, with a veiled slap at fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell, the Senate GOP leader, who has made it clear for quite some time that he wanted Bunning to retire:

Unfortunately, running for office is not just about the issues. To win a general election, a candidate has to be able to raise millions of dollars to get the message out to voters. Over the past year, some of the leaders of the Republican Party in the Senate have done everything in their power to dry up my fundraising. The simple fact is that I have not raised the funds necessary to run an effective campaign for the U.S. Senate. For this reason, I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2010.

The writing on the wall may have been the news reported Sunday by the Louisville Courier-Journal that more than 100 former Bunning donors have signed up with Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a fellow Republican who has formed an exploratory committee.

Bunning is 77. Grayson, who has taken in twice what Bunning has raised, is 37.

Bunning announced in May that he intended to run for a third term, but as I wrote back then, that decision is "subject to change." And it did.

Bunning is now the sixth GOP senator who won't run again next year, joining Mel Martinez (FL), Sam Brownback (KS), Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH) and George Voinovich (OH).

Democrats running for the seat include state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004.

With 15 months to go before the 2010 midterm elections, CQ Politics, a division of Congressional Quarterly, has released its map and ratings for all 435 House races. The interactive map includes analysis for all competitive races as well as a compilation of previous election results.

And while 15 months is a long way away, what CQ has to say is good news for the Democrats. The "in" party usually suffers losses in the midterm elections -- 2002 (GOP gains) and 1998 (Dem gains) being rare exceptions. Their verdict for 2010: Democrats "appear secure" in the House majority they won in 2006 and added to in '08.

They show, as of now, three Republican House seats in jeopardy: two are leaning Democratic and one clearly favors the Dems.

Illinois 10 -- Republican Mark Kirk is running for the Senate (leans D).

Louisiana 02 -- Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao, who defeated scandal-plagued William Jefferson (D) last year (D favored).

Pennsylvania 06 -- Republican Jim Gerlach is running for governor (leans D).

No Democratic seat is in apparent jeopardy of a Republican pickup, though two are seen as "tossups":

Idaho 01 -- held by freshman Democrat Walt Minnick.
Maryland 01 -- held by freshman Democrat Frank Kratovil.

One GOP district, the soon-to-be-vacant New York 23 seat of John McHugh, President Obama's choice for Army Secretary, is also seen as a tossup for the upcoming special election.

Here is CQ Politics' complete ratings chart for all House seats, as well as the full story.

Money doesn't always determine who wins and loses elections, but, at least at this stage of the 2010 campaign, it sends signals. One of the reasons cited by Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) for his withdrawal last week was his paltry -- $845! -- haul over the first quarter. Of course, there may have been other reasons he decided not to run.

In any event, here are several second-quarter financial updates for some key Senate races:

Continue reading "Moneyball: Portman (R-OH) Shines, Bunning (R-KY) Not" >

It's not a surprise, given his anemic fundraising and polling numbers, but it's still big news: Sen. Roland Burris, appointed by the disgraced then-Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) to fill the Senate seat of Barack Obama, will announce Friday that he will not try to keep the seat in 2010.

Michael Sneed of the Chicago Sun-Times has the exclusive:

The decision by Burris was based on his inability to raise campaign funds; campaign disclosures with the Federal Election Commission are expected to be filed next week ... and he has reportedly only raised approximately $20,000.

State Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) took her name out of the mix yesterday, but other Democrats have been gearing up to run whether or not Burris was. They include state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chris Kennedy, son of the late RFK.

The leading Republican contender is expected to be Rep. Mark Kirk. Republicans last won a Senate race in Illinois in 1998, when Peter Fitzgerald ousted one-term Democratic incumbent Carol Moseley-Braun.

In all the years that Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's ethics were under the microscope -- and this goes well before his arrest last year for attempting to sell a Senate seat -- one thing was certain: Lisa Madigan, the state attorney general, (a) wanted to be governor, and (b) would have challenged Blago in the 2010 Democratic primary had he been presumptuous enough to seek a third term.

The political situation obviously changed with the governor's arrest and subsequent impeachment, conviction and removal from office. Blagojevich's ouster elevated Pat Quinn to the governorship, and whatever you want to say about Pat Quinn, his integrity was never in question.

And that became a dilemma for Madigan. The stepdaughter of powerful House Speaker Mike Madigan, Lisa's rationale for running for governor became harder to defend. At the same time, with Roland Burris' tenure as Barack Obama's Senate successor widely seen as a disaster, Illinois and national Democrats were pushing Lisa to run for the Senate -- taking on several Dems in the primary, a list that may include Burris (whose campaign kitty is essentially empty) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The word was that the White House was behind a Madigan-for-Senate primary bid. But was that the job she wanted?

Apparently she wants neither. In a surprise announcement today, Madigan, who turns 43 later this month, says she will seek a third term as AG, the "job that I love." No gubernatorial or Senate campaign, at least not in 2010.

Continue reading "Madigan (D) Stays Put In Illinois; Kirk (R) Ready For Senate?" >

The news that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president in 2008, will not seek a second term next year was not exactly a surprise. Her numbers back home had been in a nose dive since last year's campaign and she's been feuding with legislators of both parties over the budget problems facing the state.

She's also found herself in many controversies away from home: battling with talk-show host David Letterman, giving mixed signals about attending a GOP fundraising dinner in Washington, and being blamed by some unnamed John McCain staffers for the party's defeat last year.

But few expected her to flat-out resign. On the one hand, it could give her more time to prepare for a 2012 presidential run -- while the conventional wisdom is that she still needs to work out her deficiencies to be seen as a serious candidate, polls show her popularity among Republicans still very high.

Or it could signal that she's had enough -- of the attacks and the ridicule she and her family have endured since she was named to the ticket in 2008.

Fourth of July fireworks started a bit early this year.

In a surprise announcement, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said today he will not seek the governorship of California next year.

Villaraigosa has long been considering the race. With the other two major Democrats, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and state Attorney General/ex-Oakland Mayor/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown hailing from the north, Villaraigosa was thought to have a decent shot at the nomination.

Continue reading "Villaraigosa Says He Won't Seek California Governorship In 2010" >

In a Junkie post yesterday, we talked about how Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D), who has long coveted the governorship, is being urged by Democrats to instead run for the Senate.

The reasons are clear. With the corrupt Rod Blagojevich gone, replaced by the apparently clean Pat Quinn, the argument for her to challenge a fellow Democrat for the governorship would be harder to defend. Meanwhile, the presence of Roland Burris occupying Barack Obama's Senate seat remains galling to many Dems.

But there is one major obstacle to a Madigan Senate bid, and it's not Burris. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) has been organizing a Senate bid for months and shows no sign of backing off.

So where do things stand?

Continue reading "Is The White House Sweet On Senate Run For Lisa Madigan?" >

We've known for quite some time now that Lisa Madigan, the two-term state attorney general in Illinois, covets the governor's chair. There was little question that she was planning on challenging Gov. Rod Blagojevich in next year's Democratic primary.

The governor, however, spoiled the plans by getting himself enmeshed in a scandal involving his efforts to sell the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama to the highest bidder. Blago was subsequently arrested, impeached and removed from office. Before he was finally run out of town, he appointed Roland Burris to the Senate seat.

Blagojevich's departure elevated Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn to the governorship. And now, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's McDermott & Lambrecht, Madigan is "under pressure from top Democrats to abandon" her gov. campaign and instead run for the Senate -- "a switch she's seriously considering":

Continue reading "More Musical Chairs In Ill.? AG Madigan Urged For Senate" >

One of the reasons the 2010 Senate race in Delaware has given Republicans hope is that Mike Castle, the state's at-large House member, is considering running.

Castle is extremely popular with members of both parties. He won a ninth term last year with 61 percent of the vote -- not his best showing ever, but remember, it was a year when Joe Biden was on the Democratic national ticket as well as seeking a seventh Senate term.

Biden, of course, was victorious in both of his races. When he resigned his Senate seat, he was succeeded by longtime aide Ted Kaufman, who immediately said he wouldn't run to hold the seat in the 2010 special election.

Of course he wouldn't. Kaufman, as everyone knows, is keeping the seat warm for state Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Joe, who is currently serving with the Delaware National Guard in Iraq. It's never been expressly said that young Biden will run for the Senate, but few doubt that's what's in the cards.

Continue reading "The House Is My Castle? Delaware GOP-er In Tough Decision" >

You remember Roland Burris, don't you?

He's the guy who was appointed to the Senate by then-Gov. (but the already-disgraced then-Gov.) Rod Blagojevich to fill the seat vacated by Barack Obama.

For an assortment of reasons -- everything from his ties to Blagojevich to, well, his ties to Blagojevich, he was seen as a certain lame duck, if not a dead duck, for 2010. His fundraising has been anemic, his polling numbers are weak, and there was no shortage of Democrats drooling at the thought of taking him on in next February's primary.

There's no reason to think that his situation has improved in the least. But one Democrat who had been mulling over a primary challenge, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, from Chicago's North Side, now says she won't run.

Continue reading "Schakowsky Won't Challenge Burris In 2010 Illinois Primary" >

Trying to predict the results of the 2010 Senate races in June of 2009 is probably a fool's errand, but I thought this might be a good time to do a ratings chart. And while many of you like to point out all the times I've been wrong in predictions -- as you should -- let the record show that I called every 2008 Senate race correctly (except Minnesota, assuming Al Franken is declared the winner).

Each party holds 18 seats that are up next year. But Republicans may have a tougher challenge, as five incumbents are retiring, compared with only one (the appointed Ted Kaufman of Delaware) on the Democratic side. And we still don't know if more retirements are in the making, if some surprise candidates may emerge, or how the public will view the Obama administration.

Having said that, here's a chart of all 36 Senate seats up in 2010:

Continue reading "Earlybird Ratings Of 2010 Senate Races" >

While Minnesota residents are still awaiting the results of the Nov. 4 Senate race -- only 210 days ago, if you're keeping score at home -- at least they now know something about their governor.

Tim Pawlenty, a Republican, is to announce this afternoon he will not seek re-election.

Pawlenty, who was on John McCain's short list for VP last year -- he was, for the record, my personal prediction -- is thought to be looking at a 2012 presidential run. And no one wants to go into a presidential effort with a defeat back home. Yet that might have been the case had Pawlenty sought a third term.

Continue reading "Pawlenty To Skip 3rd Term Gov Bid; An Eye For WH In 2012?" >

Here's some good news for Sen. Chris Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who is seeking a sixth term next year: He now trails his likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Rob Simmons, by 45-39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week. That 6-point margin is an improvement from the 16-point deficit he faced in the Quinnipiac poll back on April 2.

Here's the bad news: The poll shows that Connecticut voters still disapprove of Dodd by a 53-38 percent margin. His numbers have improved over the past two months, "but they are still lousy," said poll director Doug Schwartz. And businessman Merrick Alpert, a total political unknown who is challenging Dodd in the Democratic primary, is nonetheless getting a quarter of the vote.

Continue reading "Connecticut's Dodd, Still Trailing But Improving, Up With New Ad" >

Most likely to get knocked off in the 2010 primary? Burris tops our list.

The news that Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) may take on Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Democratic primary is not especially good news for the Pennsylvania senator, but it still doesn't compare to the precarious situation of Sen. Roland Burris.

The Illinois Democrat, appointed to the Senate by the disgraced Rod Blagojevich in his waning days as governor, found himself in the news once again this week. A federal wiretap installed during the investigation of Blagojevich reveals a conversation Burris had with Rob Blagojevich, the ex-gov's brother.

While Burris says nothing on the tape indicates he broke the law, his words DO contradict his earlier sworn testimony that he had not talked to anyone in the governor's office about the Senate post, vacated by Barack Obama when he became president. If nothing else, the tape shines a light on the process that brought him the Senate appointment. And the light is unflattering.

Burris makes it clear that he desperately wants the Senate seat and would be willing to help the governor raise money, writing a personal check if necessary. He never sent a check, apparently, but his overwhelming desire to get Blago's imprimatur for the Senate is a bit, well, sad.

Let's not forget that the Senate ethics committee is looking at Burris' statements. Let's not forget that the senior senator from Illinois, Majority Whip Dick Durbin, is clearly looking elsewhere for a Senate candidate. All of which keeps Burris atop our list of incumbents Most Endangered of Getting Knocked Off in the Primary Next Year.

Our top five:

Continue reading "Specter Gets Primary Foe, But Burris Remains Most At Risk -- Top 5 Most Vulnerable List" >

Not every Democrat welcomed Sen. Specter's entry into their party.

A bombshell today from Brian Beutler in Talking Points Memo: Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak plans to challenge newly minted Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Democratic primary.

Continue reading "Report: Sestak Plans To Challenge Specter In PA Dem Primary" >

Arkansas state Sen. Kim Hendren is, at the moment, the only Republican who has announced a challenge next year to U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). How much longer he will be a candidate is open to speculation.

Eric Kleefeld, writing in Talking Points Memo, reports that Hendren has apologized for referring to New York Sen. Charles Schumer (D) as "that Jew" at a county Republican meeting last week.

"I don't use a teleprompter and occasionally I put my foot in my mouth," Hendren told Arkansas blogger Jason Tolbert.

"At the meeting I was attempting to explain that unlike Sen. Schumer, I believe in traditional values, like we used to see on 'The Andy Griffith Show,'" he explained. "I made the mistake of referring to Sen. Schumer as 'that Jew' and I should not have put it that way as this took away from what I was trying to say."

Late Update: Hendren gave a further apology to the Associated Press. "When I referred to him as Jewish, it wasn't because I don't like Jewish people," he said. He also added: "I shouldn't have gotten into this Jewish business because it distracts from the issue."

And here's another Hendren effort in explaining himself further, courtesy of Zack Stovall of the Arkansas News:

"I don't care if he's Jewish, Muslim, Catholic or whatever," Hendren said. "Although I said there was another Jew that I did agree with, and that was Jesus Christ."

Early hunch: If Hendren is the GOP nominee, Sen. Lincoln wins.

Bunning threw a change-up on Saturday night.

We admit a bit of surprise at Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY) announcement over the weekend that he indeed intends to run for a third term.

Given his feuds with his fellow Republicans and his relatively paltry campaign fund, the betting was that he would use Saturday night's party event to say he was retiring.

A nice piece on the race tomorrow on Morning Edition by NPR's Adam Hochberg. As it has always been the case with Bunning's political career, you can't escape his baseball connections. Here's Adam's closing graf:

Bunning HAS left open the possibility he could still decide not to run if he can't raise enough money. But the big right-hander never has been one to walk away from a challenge. As a ballplayer, he was known to start games on just two days' rest and was often among the season leaders in innings pitched. Now, as he nears the end of his political career, he seems equally reluctant to hand somebody else the ball.

Crist is expected to try again for the Senate.

By most accounts, it looks like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will announce his candidacy for the Senate tomorrow, in Tallahassee.

The news will not take many by surprise. Ever since Sen. Mel Martinez (R) announced in December that he would not seek re-election -- and after former Gov. Jeb Bush turned down entreaties to get him to run -- Crist has been the favorite among Republicans to hold the seat.

Continue reading "Crist Senate Run May Result In Florida Gov. Free-For-All" >

We've long been reporting the precarious political position Sen. Jim Bunning is in as the Kentucky Republican ponders a third term next year.

Bunning has been feuding with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and others in his party. His fundraising has been weak. He has been snapping at reporters and party officials, more than usual.

Continue reading "Will Sen. Bunning (R-KY) Retire? 'Roll Call' Reports A Hint" >

Lt. Gov. Garamendi ends gubernatorial campaign to seek Tauscher House seat.

Sorry about the lisp in the header.

The race for governor of California next year, when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger steps down because of term limits, will be certainly one of the more high-profile contests of 2010. By definition, any California gubernatorial race is nationally significant, but this one -- with no incumbent in the race -- has drawn a virtual who's who of Democratic pols into the race.

Continue reading "California Democrats Giveth & Taketh In 2010 Gov Race" >

What's so amazing to me about San Francisco Mayor Newsom's (D) decision to announce his candidacy for governor on Twitter is, with a 140 cha

I'm usually not one who feels the way to make a point is to bash the media ... though sometimes they/we certainly deserve it.

But the ongoing speculation that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican primary seemed to be a media creation/fantasy from the start. Palin never even hinted she would mount a challenge, and I never saw anything from her people that it was even a possibility. Nonetheless, the rumors continued.

Until now.

Continue reading "Alaska Gov. Palin Won't Challenge Sen. Murkowski Next Year" >

It's a long way to go before 2010, but Republicans seem to have gotten a bit of promising news in Connecticut, where Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is expected to seek a sixth term next year.

Today, former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) made it official; he'll run for the Senate. Simmons, who lost his own House seat in 2006, has been encouraged by a Quinnipiac University poll that shows him in a dead heat with Dodd -- 43 percent for Simmons, 42 percent for Dodd. Dodd has been getting some bad press over his alleged sweetheart deal with Countrywide Financial (click here to see Junkie post from Feb. 11).

Continue reading "New Conn. Poll Shows Simmons Dead Even With Dodd, But ... " >

A question from Gus Sperrazza of Washington, D.C.:

Is there any chance that Arlen Specter could lose his party's primary and run as an independent, a la Connecticut's Joe Lieberman in 2006?

Well, there certainly is a chance that Specter could lose his primary -- as we discussed on Monday -- but if he does, that's it for him. Pennsylvania law does not permit a candidate defeated in the primary to run as an independent (or on another party line) in the general election.

In the past half-century, of all the senators who were denied renomination in the primary, only two tried to keep their seat in November running as an independent or on a third party. The most recent, of course, was Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who lost the Democratic primary in 2006 to anti-war activist Ned Lamont but then mounted an independent effort in the fall to win a fourth term.

The other was Jacob Javits. The New York Republican, seeking a fifth term, was beaten in the 1980 Republican primary by Al D'Amato. Javits stayed in the race as the candidate of the Liberal Party; he had never served in the Senate majority and desperately wanted to have that chance. But all he did was split the liberal (small "l") vote with Democratic nominee Elizabeth Holtzman, and the divide on the left helped D'Amato win the first of his three terms.

Thomas Dodd, a two-term Connecticut Democrat, sought re-election in 1970. But he doesn't qualify for this list because not only did he not lose his party's nomination, he didn't even seek it. He was censured by the Senate in 1967 for redirecting campaign funds for personal use and found that he had no chance of getting Democrats to back him for a third term. So rather than seek renomination, he ran on a third-party line in the general election, unsuccessfully.

Burris is the most, but hardly the only, senator vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2010.

Last week we speculated on the troubles Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is having with his fellow Republicans. But Bunning may not be the only senator who is in hot water with his own party in 2010:

Roland Burris. Nothing is certain in politics, but this is as close as it gets: Burris, the embattled Illinois Democrat, is not going to survive a primary should he decide to run for a full term next year. He may very well resist the calls by some in his party, including Gov. Pat Quinn, and the suggestions of others, such as Sen. Dick Durbin, that he resign. But for an assortment of reasons long spelled out here (and here for that matter), his political situation is quite precarious.

Continue reading "Will Specter Survive A 2010 Primary? Will Gillibrand? Vitter? (Forget Burris)" >

It once seemed like Jim Bunning could get anyone out. Now, Republicans may be trying to force him out.

It would be fair to say that, no matter how you look at it, Sen. Jim Bunning has not had a good couple of weeks.

The Kentucky Republican, who is 77 and whose term expires next year, seems to be making the wrong kind of headlines with whatever he says or does, a la Alex Rodriguez. Bunning, a former baseball player himself -- he's a Hall of Fame pitcher to be more precise -- has been batted around lately for an assortment of reasons, almost all of them self-inflicted:

Continue reading "Is The GOP Looking For a New Pitcher To Relieve Bunning? " >

Only two blacks have been elected governor since Reconstruction. California's Tom Bradley came tantalizingly close in 1982.

If Barack Obama, why not Artur Davis?

The racial barrier, which fell in last year's presidential contest, is now being tested in Alabama, for the first time in the state's history. Rep. Artur Davis, a 41-year-old Democrat serving his fourth term, announced he will seek the governorship being vacated next year by term-limited Republican Bob Riley.

The announcement was not unexpected. Davis had been eyeing the post for a while, even before he won re-election -- without opposition -- last November. But unlike the easy time he's had keeping his House seat -- ever since he unseated Rep. Earl Hilliard, a fellow African-American, in the 2002 Dem primary -- it may be tougher in the June 2010 Democratic primary. His opponents may include Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom (who briefly served as governor in the early 1990s) and Ron Sparks, the state commissioner of agriculture and industry.

On the Republican side, Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, is already running. James finished a distant third in the 2002 GOP primary won by Riley. Another possible is state Treasurer Kay Ivey.

It's tough enough for a Democrat to win statewide in Alabama, and so the odds against a black Democrat are probably more daunting. The African-American share of the electorate in the state is about a quarter; Barack Obama won just 39 percent of the vote against John McCain last year. Republicans have won five of the past six gubernatorial elections. But in 2002, when Riley won his first term, he didn't even receive a majority of the vote. And in 1994, when Fob James won, he barely surpassed 50 percent.

Davis, the Obama campaign chairman in Alabama, is clearly aware of the obstacles. "Yes, this will be hard, but if we find our way, we can build a state like we have never known," he said when he announced his candidate. "Not at some distant point called 'one day,' but right now, in our season." Check out this wonderful profile done by NPR's Debbie Elliott that aired on Morning Edition on Feb. 6.

Once before has an African-American sought the Alabama governorship: Dr. John Cashin ran against George Wallace (D) in 1970 as the nominee of the National Democratic Party of Alabama (a third party), getting 15 percent of the vote.

Here's a list of black major-party candidates for governor since Reconstruction:

1982 -- Tom Bradley (D-CA) -- lost to George Deukmejian (R)
1986 -- Tom Bradley (D-CA) -- lost to George Deukmejian (R)
1986 -- William Lucas (R-MI) -- lost to Jim Blanchard (D)
1989 -- DOUG WILDER (D-VA) -- beat Marshall Coleman (R)
1990 -- Theo Mitchell (D-SC) -- lost to Carroll Campbell (R)
1995 -- Cleo Fields (D-LA) -- lost to Mike Foster (R)
1999 -- William Jefferson (D-LA) -- lost to Mike Foster (R)
2002 -- Joe Neal (D-NV) -- lost to Kenny Guinn (R)
2002 -- Carl McCall (D-NY) -- lost to George Pataki (R)
2006 -- DEVAL PATRICK (D-MA) -- beat Kerry Healy (R)
2006 -- Ken Blackwell (R-OH) -- lost to Ted Strickland (D)
2006 -- Lynn Swann (R-PA) -- lost to Ed Rendell (D)

In addition, David Paterson (D), who became governor of New York in 2008 when Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned in the wake of a prostitution scandal, is expected to seek a full term this year.

Well, I checked under the tree yesterday, and there were still no Senate replacements in Illinois, New York or Colorado, and still no winner in Minnesota.

Disappointed, I went out and saw The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -- and came away even more disappointed. This had nothing to do with campaign buttons at all. They wouldn't give me my money back. The good news is that when I got home, I was 11 years old.

But back to those unresolved Senate seats. Here's the latest on the states, listed alphabetically:

COLORADO --

Gov. Bill Ritter (D) is obviously in no hurry to tip his hand on which Democrat he'll name to replace Sen. Ken Salazar (D) once he joins the Obama Cabinet as interior secretary. It seems that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who retains high approval ratings, is getting the most mention. The mayor told the Rocky Mountain News that he'd be interested in replacing Salazar: "To work in Washington at this critical time," he said, "at this moment in history, would be incredibly exciting and challenging and I think rewarding."

Also adding her name to the mix is former state Sen. Polly Baca, who would be the nation's first Hispanic woman in the Senate (as well as Colorado's first woman). It's a rapidly growing list, as retiring state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Rep. Diana DeGette, two-time Senate candidate Tom Strickland, Rep. Ed Perlmutter, former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Denver School Superintendent Michael Bennet and oil heiress Swanee Hunt have all either expressed interest in the appointment or have said they would consider it.

One name also being bandied about is Salazar's older brother, Congressman John Salazar, who for obvious reasons has been keeping a low profile as the jockeying intensifies.

There are risks for Ritter and the Dems with several of these choices. Some say DeGette may be too liberal to win statewide (though that's what they said about Mark Udall, who left his Boulder-centered congressional district to easily win a Senate seat this year). Of all the members of Congress out there, John Salazar's House seat may be toughest for the Dems to hold.

There are, for the record, some Democrats in Colorado who have ruled out the appointment. They include state Treasurer Cary Kennedy and former Denver Mayor and Clinton Cabinet official Federico Pena

Whoever is named will have to run in 2010, when Sen. Salazar's term would have expired.

Ritter will also have to name a successor to Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R), who was elected to Congress last month to replace retiring Republican Tom Tancredo. If Romanoff doesn't get the Senate appointment he could be the next Secretary of State.

(Sec/State update: see Wilson Pruitt's comment below.)

ILLINOIS --

The state House of Representatives meets again on Monday to discuss impeaching Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who has been accused of, among other things, offering to sell the Senate seat formerly held by President-elect Barack Obama to the highest bidder. Blagojevich, who was arrested Dec. 9 on corruption charges, has refused demands that he resign. One of his attorneys, Ed Genson, has told state legislators he wants them to subpoena more than a dozen witnesses, including Rep. Rahm Emanuel. It has already been acknowledged by Team Obama that Emanuel, who will leave Congress to become the new White House chief of staff, has had conversations with the governor and his former chief of staff, John Harris, about the Senate vacancy. (Harris was arrested with the governor last month.)

Also on Genson's subpoena wish list are Valerie Jarrett, who considered but then ruled herself out of Senate consideration, and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., once thought to be high on the list of potential appointees.

Now that list is in tatters. It is not clear who has been fatally compromised by the investigation. It is not clear when or if Blagojevich will be removed from office, and so it is not clear who will be appointing the next senator. Republicans, of course, would love a special election, which was once called for by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) -- a call that was muted once Dems realized they could lose the seat.

Naughty, not nice. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on Christmas Eve named Blagojevich as the "naughtiest" politician in 2008. He topped the list with 56 percent, followed by ex-New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer with 23 percent and former presidential candidate John Edwards at 19 percent. Spitzer and Edwards were involved in sex scandals.

MINNESOTA --

The news has not been good lately for Sen. Norm Coleman (R), who trails Democratic challenger Al Franken by 47 (count 'em) votes in the latest tally. The Coleman camp is claiming that anywhere between 130 and 150 votes in Democratic areas may have been counted twice, but the state Supreme Court ruled against the claim, saying there was no way of determining that short of going through still another hand recount of the 2.9 million votes that were cast on Nov. 4. Republicans are suggesting more legal challenges.

There are still some 1,600 absentee ballots that were incorrectly rejected on Election Day. But the court ruled that the votes won't be counted unless both sides agree on each individual ballot.

One thing is clear: There will be no winner declared in 2008, and probably not before Jan. 6, when the new Congress is sworn in.

NEW YORK --

If Norm Coleman is not having a good time of it, it's been worse for Caroline Kennedy. The daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy made it clear that she would love to be appointed to the Senate once Hillary Clinton is confirmed as secretary of state. That was all well and good. But then it no longer became well or good. Kennedy's "listening tour" of upstate N.Y., modeled after Clinton's 1999 tour, didn't go according to plan. Instead of people throwing bouquets at her, she found herself getting hit with words like "entitlement" and "elitism." She met with more politicians than real voters (a "drive-by visit," wrote the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle), took only written questions from the media (and then gave less than satisfactory answers), is refusing to answer questions about her finances (not until she's appointed, she says), hasn't opened up her checkbook to any New York Democratic candidate in the past decade (except for New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, reports the Daily News' Michael Saul), has a spotty voting record, and has backed away from committing to support the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City next year.

And on that last point, that's because one of her key sponsors for the Senate is thought to be NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Democrat who was elected mayor twice as a Republican but who is now an independent. Bloomberg had the City Council temporarily remove the two-term limit so he could run again in 2009. Bloomberg has been one of the city's most popular mayors in history, but there has been a bit of backlash to his end run around term limits. There are many indications that Bloomberg and his political machine are solidly behind Kennedy's Senate bid.

Meanwhile, there are more and more signs indicating that Gov. David Paterson (D), who will make the appointment, is starting to resent the "inevitability" of Caroline that her supporters are suggesting. (Not long ago, Paterson was thought to resent the efforts of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to get himself appointed. Caroline has apparently replaced Andrew -- who was once married to her cousin -- as the focus of his resentment.) The Daily News reports that at a Wednesday news conference, when a reporter suggested Kennedy was the front-runner for the spot, Paterson shot back, "How is she a front-runner?"

Others thought to be high on the list as potential appointees: Tom Suozzi, the Nassau County (Long Island) executive, as well as several members of Congress, starting with Steve Israel from Long Island, Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate and Brian Higgins of Buffalo.

Paterson, like Colorado's governor, does not seem to be in any hurry to name a senator. By all indications, an appointment may not come until late January or even February.

Whoever is appointed will have to run in 2010, to fill the final two years of Clinton's term, and then again in 2012.

That's it for me in 2008. Have a safe, healthy and Happy New Year, and I'll see you in 2009.

It's cold outside, the economy stinks, and the Yankees still haven't signed Mark Teixeira. Worse, everyone is fleeing town. So what better time than now to list the states holding races for governor in 2009 (two) and 2010 (36). Governors whose names are in boldface are eligible to run again.

2009 -- 2 (2 Dem)

New Jersey: Jon Corzine (D) is likely to seek re-election. The Republican most often talked about is former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, but he has yet to announce his intentions. The GOP field is still being sorted out. Primary: June 2.

Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) is limited to one term. The Republican nominee will be Bob McDonnell, the state attorney general. Three Democrats have expressed interest in running: former state Del. Brian Moran, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds and ex-Democratic National Committee Chair Terry McAuliffe. The primary is June 9. Click here for more on the race.

2010 -- 36 (20 Dem, 16 GOP)

Alabama: Bob Riley (R) is term-limited. Among the Democrats looking at the race is Rep. Artur Davis.

Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) is expected to seek a second term. There have been some reports that Palin might take on GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the primary, but that's unlikely.

Arizona: Jan Brewer (R), the secretary of state, will become governor when Janet Napolitano (D) resigns to join the Obama Cabinet as secretary of homeland security. Brewer is expected to run in 2010.

Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D) is expected to seek a second term.

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is term-limited. Former Rep. Tom Campbell, eBay exec Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner are potential GOP candidates. List of possible Dems includes Mayors Gavin Newsom of San Francisco and Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi.

Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) is expected to seek a second full term.

Florida: Charlie Crist (R) is expected to seek a second term.

Georgia: Sonny Perdue (R) is term-limited. GOP field may include Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) is term-limited.

Idaho: Butch Otter (R) is expected to seek a second term.

Illinois: Rod Blagojevich (D) may resign early to become King of Neptune.

Iowa: Chet Culver (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) is term-limited. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is expected to run for governor.

Maine: John Baldacci (D) is term-limited.

Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D) is expected to seek a second term. Bob Ehrlich, unseated by O'Malley in 2002, is the most prominent Republican name mentioned.

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Michigan: Jennifer Granholm (D) is term-limited. Among the Republicans looking at this are state Attorney General Mike Cox, Secretary of State Terri Land and Rep. Peter Hoekstra, who recently announced he won't seek re-election to the House.

Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) may seek a third term.

Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) is expected to seek a second full term.

Nevada: Jim Gibbons (R) may seek a second term.

New Hampshire: John Lynch (D) is expected to seek a fourth two-year term.

New Mexico: Diane Denish (D) becomes governor when Bill Richardson (D) resigns to join Obama Cabinet as secretary of commerce. Denish was already planning to run to replace the term-limited Richardson.

New York: David Paterson (D), who became governor after Eliot Spitzer (D) resigned in the wake of a prostitution scandal in March, is expected to seek his first full term.

Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) is expected to seek a second term.

Oklahoma: Brad Henry (D) is term-limited.

Oregon: Ted Kulongoski (D) is term-limited.

Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell (D) is term-limited.

Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri (R) is term-limited.

South Carolina: Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited.

South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) is term-limited.

Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) is term-limited.

Texas: Rick Perry (R), who became governor when George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000, may seek a third full term. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is expected to run regardless of Perry's decision.

Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) is expected to seek a fifth two-year term.

Wisconsin: Jim Doyle (D) is expected to seek a third term.

Wyoming:: Dave Freudenthal (D) is term-limited.

Click here for our list of the 36 Senate seats up in 2010.

The buzz is that President-elect Barack Obama is close to announcing Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) as the next secretary of interior. The pick is a bit of a surprise for us — we were guessing it would be Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) — but if it's true, it will be the fourth Democratic Senate seat to open up in the wake of the Nov. 4 results: Obama's in Illinois (say, what's going on with that one?), Joe Biden's in Delaware, Hillary Clinton's in New York, and now the Salazar seat.

Colorado has been, to say the least, trending Democratic of late. In 2004, Salazar won a GOP Senate seat and his brother John did likewise with a GOP House seat. Democrat Bill Ritter won the governorship in 2006 after eight years of GOP rule as Ed Perlmutter (D) picked up a Republican House seat. This year, Rep. Mark Udall (D) won the Senate seat vacated by Republican Wayne Allard, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

And did we mention that Obama carried the state? He's the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Bill Clinton in '92 and only the second Dem since LBJ in '64.

If Salazar is indeed chosen to lead Interior, Brother John is perhaps the most widely mentioned name to succeed him. Other Dems thought to be in the mix include the current Denver mayor (John Hickenlooper) and a former Denver mayor (Federico Pena). Gov. Ritter would make the appointment, which would last until 2010, when Salazar's term was due to expire.

Unnamed sources say the only thing delaying the naming of Salazar is a background check. NPR's Jeff Brady suggests something else may be afoot:

Last week a coalition of over 100 environmental groups — many of them based in the West — signed a letter asking Obama to nominate Grijalva. He currently chairs the House Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests and Public Lands.

"Oregon and the rest of the West need an Interior secretary who understands the damage done over the last eight years and is willing and ready to step in and begin charting a new course for the department," said Steve Pedery, conservation director with Oregon Wild. "Representative Grijalva has demonstrated that he is ready to restore integrity at Interior."

As Salazar's name began to emerge Monday as Obama's pick, the groups behind that letter were clearly disappointed. The only ones pleased with the rumored pick were those in the agriculture and mining industries. During the campaign these folks, generally, were counted as supporters of Republican John McCain.

"Of all the names mentioned, Salazar is the one we're happiest with," said Dan Keppen, head of the Family Farm Alliance.

"Salazar is the first name mentioned that we could support," said Laura Skaer, executive director of the Northwest Mining Association.

It appears the environmental groups are beginning to concede they've lost their bid to have Grijalva nominated.

In a press release, Brian Vincent of the Oregon-based group Big Wildlife said it would "withhold judgment over President-elect Obama's selection of Senator Ken Salazar" and the group pledged to "hold his feet to the fire on key wildlife issues."

The New York Times is reporting that Caroline Kennedy will "pursue" the soon-to-be vacant New York Senate seat of Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton.

Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25 in Denver.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

 

Kennedy, daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy and niece of another Kennedy who previously held the seat — the late Robert F. Kennedy — decided "after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight." That, according to the Times' Nicholas Confessore, who reports that Kennedy will ask Gov. David Paterson (D) for consideration for the appointment.

Two years after JFK was elected president, his brother Ted won a Senate seat in Massachusetts, and brother Bobby was elected in New York two years after that. JFK's grandfather John "Honey Fitz" Fitzgerald, mayor of Boston, failed in a 1916 Senate bid against Republican Henry Cabot Lodge.

 

Sen. Clinton said she will resign the seat once she is confirmed to the Obama Cabinet.

There has been no shortage of names thrown in the mix of potential candidates for the Senate post. As we wrote on Dec. 2, the list is thought to include state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate, Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo, Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan, and Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi.

But Kennedy's name has always been the most intriguing. Despite near-universal name recognition, she has never taken an active political role until this year, when she endorsed Barack Obama's presidential candidacy and later served on his VP vetting team. She was even mentioned by some as a potential Obama running mate.

There had been some speculation that Kennedy's name was thrown out there simply as a distraction — that Gov. Paterson resented (according to some of the whispering going on) the ambitions of AG Cuomo, and the public mulling over of Caroline was an opportunity to buy Paterson some time to come up with an Anyone But Andrew appointment. (It should be noted that Caroline's cousin, Kerry, had a very public and very nasty divorce from Cuomo, so there's no love lost between them.)

(And you wonder how much warmth there is between Caroline and Hillary. The Clintons had lobbied hard for the endorsement of Sen. Ted Kennedy, and many in the Clinton camp were thrown for a loop when Ted and Caroline joined the Obama bandwagon.)

But it no longer looks like Caroline is a smoke screen. According to the Times' report, she wants it and has been lobbying Dem pols such as Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.

For the record, it should be pointed out that not everyone is falling over himself praising the possibility of Caroline Kennedy in the Senate. Rep. Gary Ackerman, a Democrat from Queens, said in a WOR radio interview last week, "I don't know what Caroline Kennedy's qualifications are. Except that she has name recognition, but so does J Lo. I wouldn't make J Lo the senator unless she proved she had great qualifications, but we haven't seen them yet."

On the Republican side, Rep. Peter King of Long Island says he is planning to run regardless of whom Paterson appoints. (There will be a special election in 2010 to fill the last two years of Clinton's term, and then another one in 2012 for the full term.)

No Republican has ever unseated a Democratic senator in New York.

Trivia question: Who was the first daughter of a president to run for public office? (First correct answer gets 15 seconds of fame in Political Junkie.)

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has filed the required paperwork to begin an exploratory committee to run for governor of Texas in 2010 — a move she seriously considered four years ago but ultimately decided against to stay put in the Senate.

Republican Rick Perry, the current governor, has given no indication that he plans to step down after his term ends. Hutchison's Senate seat expires in 2012 — but she is expected to resign once her gubernatorial campaign is under way.

I could write more on this subject, but heck, it's easier just stealing the following from my Political Junkie column of April 13, 2005:

Q: I have seen reports that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) may challenge Gov. Rick Perry in next year's Republican primary. I can recall governors challenging senators in a primary before (such as Arkansas Gov. Dale Bumpers against Sen. J.W. Fulbright in 1974, or South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow against Sen. Jim Abdnor in 1986), but not senators challenging governors. — Harvey Hudson, Eden Prairie, Minn.

A: I agree. I cannot think of a single instance in which a sitting senator has gone home to run against an incumbent governor of the same party in a primary. As it is, the list of senators elected governor is small; just four have made the move in the past half-century: Price Daniel (D-TX) in 1956; Pete Wilson (R-CA) in 1990; Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID) in 1998; and Frank Murkowski (R-AK) in 2002. And none challenged an incumbent to do so, in a primary or in the general.

Daniel ran only after Texas Gov. Allan Shivers (D), an ally, decided to retire. Both Wilson and Kempthorne succeeded retiring Republican governors (George Deukmejian and Phil Batt, respectively). Murkowski ran in Alaska to succeed a term-limited Democrat, Tony Knowles.

This year, Sen. Jon Corzine is the odds-on choice to be elected governor of New Jersey. Corzine's strength with Democratic county leaders is what forced acting Gov. Richard Codey, also a Dem, out of the race. But there was no primary. [Update: Corzine won, so add him to the list.]

And while I know there's probably more — and please write me if you know of them — I can only think of two other senators who ran for governor while still in office since senators were first popularly elected. In 1958, Bill Knowland, the Republican leader of the Senate from California, felt the best way for him to reach the White House was as a governor. The problem: Gov. Goodwin Knight, a fellow Republican (albeit more of a foe than a friend), didn't want to give up his job. A Knowland-Knight primary was averted when Knight gave way and ran for the Senate. As it was, both Republicans lost that year.

The other was Sen. Irving Ives (R-NY). When Gov. Thomas Dewey (R) announced late in 1954 that he wanted to retire, Republicans drafted Ives as their candidate for governor. He wound up losing to Averell Harriman, though he didn't have to give up his Senate seat.

One aside worth mentioning: Once upon a time, the thought of a senator going home to run for governor was seen as a step down. Why get lost in a sleepy state capital, the argument went, when you could be in Washington, where all the action was?

Many giants of the Senate — Hiram Johnson of California, Harry Byrd of Virginia, Richard Russell of Georgia, to name just a few — started off as governor. But lately, with partisan wrangling on Capitol Hill a constant and often tedious affair, the appeal of staying in Washington has lessened for some.

Pete Wilson, who served eight years in the Senate, said there was nothing more invigorating and stimulating than being governor. Dirk Kempthorne, who could have held onto his Idaho Senate seat forever, was anxious to go back home. A former mayor of Boise, he said when he left Washington that the power was shifting to the states, where the action was, and unlike D.C., where he was one of 100, he was now running the show.

Now that we've had our fun with political trivia, the bigger question is whether Hutchison will actually give up her Senate seat to challenge Perry. A source close to Hutchison tells me that anyone who says they know what she will do is lying, that a decision has still not been reached. But by all accounts, it looks like she's running.

That surprises me. Why would Hutchison give up a safe Senate seat to risk splitting the party back home? What did Perry do to invite a primary battle? Some Hutchison partisans have said that Perry has fallen down on the job and his numbers are declining, though I haven't seen much evidence.

And where is the White House in all of this? I don't know of any bad blood between President Bush and Rick Perry, who was W's hand-picked choice for lieutenant governor in his second term. So why is the administration silent? When conservative Rep. Pat Toomey challenged Sen. Arlen Specter in last year's Pennsylvania GOP primary, the White House didn't hesitate for a second — they embraced Specter, who clearly had a better chance of winning statewide, despite being closer ideologically to Toomey. But nary a word from Karl Rove about the Hutchison-Perry family feud.

Some have attributed Hutchison's decision to her public pledge to serve no more than two full terms in the Senate. I've also read that she is "tired" of commuting between Washington and Texas. That's all well and good, but do you make such a dramatic move because you're tired? Certainly, if Hutchison vacated her Senate seat, there would be a mad scramble among many Texas Republicans — state officeholders, members of Congress — to take her place.

The Perry people are prepared; they've circulated a video of Hutchison appearing with Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) at a Washington ceremony from last month in which the two briefly embrace and Clinton calls Hutchison "my partner on so many important fronts." Perry has defended the tactic; Hutchison called it a "political cheap shot."

Stay tuned.

Back in 1999, after Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York announced his retirement, the speculation about who would succeed him as the Democratic nominee was the talk of the town. Topping the list was the first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton, even though she didn't live in New York. So what, argued her supporters, pointing to both Bobby Kennedy and Jim Buckley when they ran for — and were elected to — the Senate, in 1964 and 1970 respectively. They just simply moved to the Empire State before the deadline.

Yeah, yeah, wrote the guy who wrote the Political Junkie column that appeared on the Washington Post Web site at the time. You can talk about Hillary running all you want, but it's just a fantasy.

The Bobby analogy doesn't entirely fit the Hillary situation. Kennedy's parents had owned a home in the Empire State since the 1920s. And he attended New York schools for six years until his father became ambassador to Great Britain. Hillary Clinton has no such roots.

I'll be the first to admit that this is a fun story. But she's not going to run. Rep. Nita Lowey, who represents a district that covers parts of Westchester, the Bronx and Queens, will be the Democratic nominee.

Well, that clown was clearly wrong. But here it is, all these years later, and that Senate seat is about to open up once again, once Clinton is confirmed as secretary of state.

The first name I thought of as a potential successor: Nita Lowey. She's still in Congress, in fact now in the majority, still fighting for abortion rights and health care. I pegged her as a strong choice for Gov. David Paterson (D) to consider.

But it's not going to happen. In an interview with the Associated Press yesterday, Lowey said she is going to remain in the House, that Paterson should look elsewhere.

Oh well. But not to worry. Even with Lowey taking herself out of the mix, Paterson has an easy choice to make. As Clyde Haberman wrote in The New York Times a week ago, "It should be a breeze."

Surely, in a pool that vast, Mr. Paterson will be able to find a gay, black, Roman Catholic woman with a Latino surname, thanks to her father, and a mother who was born in China to Christian missionary parents but who converted to Judaism. Oh, and this gay, black, Roman Catholic woman with a Latino father, etc., should live outside Rochester or maybe Syracuse. ... Thus will the governor be able to satisfy just about every constituency clamoring for the Clinton Senate seat.

A bit tongue-in-cheek, of course. But the list of possibles, and not-so-possibles, is huge. Alphabetically, it includes Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr., former President Bill Clinton, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand from upstate, Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo, Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island, Caroline Kennedy and her cousin Robert Kennedy Jr., Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan, Rep. Gregory Meeks of Queens, Rep. Jerrold Nadler of Manhattan, ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer (I swear I saw him mentioned), Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi, and Rep. Nydia Velazquez of Brooklyn.

The good news is that Clinton has said she is not going to resign until the new Senate confirms her, which is at least a month away. That gives Paterson, and us, more time to consider the 3 million people who are potential successors.

The decision by Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) to eschew a second term may not be the last shew (sorry) to drop among GOP senators who have decided enough is enough.

Already Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has said he will not run again for the seat he first won in 1996. And while Arizona's John McCain has said he plans to seek a fifth term in 2010, not everyone is convinced. Plus, there are questions about David Vitter (R-LA), who was caught up in a prostitution scandal; Arlen Specter (R-PA), who turns 80 in 2010 and has been battling cancer; and Bob Bennett (R-UT), who is approaching 77 years of age.

One possible bright spot for the GOP in Florida: Rumors persist that should Sen. Martinez leave early, Gov. Charlie Crist might appoint his predecessor as governor, Jeb Bush. And not a moment too soon, if you ask me, because it's been over four years since a Bush was on the Republican presidential ticket.

Below is a chart of the 36 Senate seats at stake in 2010:

DEMOCRATS (17): Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln), California (Barbara Boxer), Colorado (Ken Salazar), Connecticut (Chris Dodd), Delaware special (open seat — Ted Kaufman, appointed to replace VP-elect Joe Biden, will not run), Hawaii (Daniel Inouye), Illinois (awaiting an appointment to succeed Prez-elect Barack Obama), Indiana (Evan Bayh), Maryland (Barbara Mikulski), Nevada (Harry Reid), New York (Charles Schumer), New York special (awaiting an appointment to succeed Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton), North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), Oregon (Ron Wyden), Vermont (Patrick Leahy), Washington (Patty Murray), Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)

REPUBLICANS (19): Alabama (Richard Shelby), Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Arizona (John McCain), Florida (open seat — Mel Martinez retiring), Georgia (Johnny Isakson), Idaho (Mike Crapo), Iowa (Charles Grassley), Kansas (open seat — Sam Brownback retiring), Kentucky (Jim Bunning), Louisiana (David Vitter), Missouri (Kit Bond), New Hampshire (Judd Gregg), North Carolina (Richard Burr), Ohio (George Voinovich), Oklahoma (Tom Coburn), Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter), South Carolina (Jim DeMint), South Dakota (John Thune), Utah (Bob Bennett)

In a development that took the Republican establishment by surprise, Sen. Mel Martinez -- the former chair of the Republican National Committee who earlier served as President Bush's HUD secretary -- is expected to announce momentarily that he will not seek a second term. The St. Petersburg Times reports that Martinez may in fact leave the Senate in advance of his term in 2010, which would allow Gov. Charlie Crist (R) to appoint a replacement.

One of the Democratic Party's leading stars in the Sunshine State, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, is also expected to say she will forgo a Senate bid and instead seek re-election to her Cabinet post. Jim Johnson, who writes the StateofSunshine blog, says that no matter whom the Dems put up — he suggests state Sen. Dan Gelber — Martinez was in trouble.

He is not the darling of Florida conservatives. He is a former trial lawyer who backed President George Bush's immigration reform legislation -- a bill conservatives labeled 'amnesty.' Much like Senator John McCain, he just doesn't light the fire of the far right base of the GOP.

More to come.