Here's the latest on the status of the NY 23 special election, in the aftermath of the "unconcession" of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman (see earlier post here):

Brian Mann of North Country Public Radio reports that, with partial results from Jefferson County already counted, the lead of Democrat Bill Owens, who is thought to have won the election (and who was sworn in on Nov. 6) is now down to 2,940 votes, down from 3,026. There are still some 5,570 absentee ballots yet to be counted.

Brian reports that "Hoffman is gaining slowly, but the erosion of Owens' lead through the day hasn't been anything rapid enough to change the outcome."

The counting continues.

Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in the special NY 23 election, has withdrawn his concession.

Hoffman, who jumped in the race in response to the "liberal" positions of the Republican Party candidate, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava -- a decision that ultimately forced Scozzafava out of the race -- conceded to Democrat Bill Owens on election night. At the time, Hoffman trailed Owens by about 5,000 votes. (Owens was quickly sworn in, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dearly needed his presence for the Nov. 7 vote on health care.)

By winning the seat vacated by now-Army Secretary John McHugh, Owens became the first Democrat to represent the area in upstate New York in more than 100 years.

End of story? Hardly. After some tabulating errors were discovered, Owens' lead over Hoffman shrunk to 3,026 votes. But there are as many as 10,000 oustanding absentee and paper ballots that only today will begin to be counted. (And that number could be far less; 10,000 absentee ballots were requested ... we don't know exactly how many were returned.) Hoffman "unconceded" today on Glenn Beck's national radio show.

Conceding an election doesn't necessarily mean anything, other than it's a gracious way of congratulating a victorious opponent. But it holds no legal meaning. Al Gore conceded to George W. Bush on election night 2000, only to withdraw that concession when Florida turned out to be too close to call. (He conceded once again, on Dec. 13, only after the U.S. Supreme Court ended his hopes of finding victory in the legal system.)

Plus, we have no way of knowing where those absentee votes went. Many military votes -- the district includes Fort Drum -- could very well have gone to Scozzafava; Owens himself has Air Force credentials. So who knows? But we should know soon.

And if it turns out that Hoffman got more votes than Owens? Well, aside from a potential court challenge, Hoffman would be declared the winner. And Owens' House tenure would be among the shortest in history.

Lots of "ifs" there. But NY 23, which captivated the political world this fall, continues to hold our attention.

You all remember Bill Owens, right? He's that independent guy from upstate New York who got elected as a Democrat last week in the much-watched open congressional seat in the 23rd District.

That was the election in which conservatives openly revolted against the pro-choice/pro-gay marriage Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, which led to her withdrawing from the race in the final days of the campaign and endorsing Owens, instead of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. On election night, NY 23 went for Owens over Hoffman by just 5,335 votes, the first time a Republican lost the seat in more than a century. With 93 percent of the vote counted, Hoffman conceded, and Owens was quickly sworn in, on Friday -- just in time to cast a what-turned-out-to-be-a-much-needed-vote for the Democrats' health-care bill on Saturday night.

Now we learn that the vote count in NY 23 is not over. And not only that, the state has yet to certify the election.

The Syracuse Post-Standard's Mark Weiner reports that a recanvassing of the votes in the 11-county district shows Owens' lead down to 3,026 votes -- 66,698 to 63,672.

And that's not all. There are still absentee ballots to be counted. John Conklin, the communications director for the New York State Board of Elections says that 10,200 were distributed prior to the election, which includes military and overseas ballots.

Conklin sent a letter to the House Clerk last week, stating that there was no certified winner. But because Owens still had a lead and Hoffman was not challenging the results, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went ahead and had Owens sworn in. (Another special election winner from last week, California Democrat John Garamendi, was also sworn in in advance of the health-care vote.)

And while there's no way of knowing whether the absentee ballots could reverse the result, there is nonetheless that possibility ... as Conklin told the Post-Standard:

We sent a letter to the clerk laying out the totals. The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed.

For his part, Hoffman now must be wondering if he conceded too soon. Part of the problem was "the unexpected -- and erroneous -- close vote in Oswego County [Hoffman's stronghold], where polls had Hoffman with a double digit percentage point lead heading into Election Day."

Oswego County elections officials blame the mistakes on "chaos" in their call-in center that included a phone system foul-up and inspectors who read numbers incorrectly when phoning in results. Of 245 races in the county -- not including the congressional and court races -- 84 had incorrect totals reported election night.

In the congressional race, more votes were cast in Oswego County than any other in the 11-county district.

The district's second biggest voter turnout was in Jefferson County, where Hoffman also has benefited from a turnaround since election night, gaining about 700 votes. Owens led Hoffman by 300 votes on the final election night tally. But after recanvassing, Hoffman now leads by 424 votes, 10,884 to 10,460.

Rob Ryan, the Hoffman campaign spokesman, "said the absentee ballots are likely to favor Hoffman because most were likely mailed before" Scozzafava suspended her campaign:

"For Doug to win, we needed a three-way race," Ryan said, adding that the campaign's internal polls showed Hoffman would win with all three candidates.

"Given the majority of these ballots are from a three-way race, we think the ballots are going to break Doug's way," Ryan said.

Comments on the Post-Standard's blog were mixed. "kidscience" wrote:

Funny, Funny, Funny stuff. Charge all involved with treason, even the President and vice President.

Which prompted this response from "magus12":

Snort. Treason? Thanks for the laugh. How about 2000 when Bush was appointed by the reactionary U.S. Supreme Court after brother Jeb scrubbed the Florida voter rolls of people who were never felons? Or the 2004 election he stole thanks to Karl Rove and the Ohio Secretary of State who arranged that entire precincts that go Democratic were left without voting machines or machines that "mysteriously" converted Kerry votes to Bush?

And what if in the end Hoffman is declared the winner? Does that negate Owens' vote for the health-care bill? No. He was duly and legally sworn in.

Wow.

UPDATE: I'm wracking my brain, trying to remember if a recount ever unseated a sitting member of Congress, and I can't. When Bill Delahunt first ran for Congress in Massachusetts' 10th District, in 1996, it was determined that he had lost the Democratic primary by fewer than 300 votes. A week of recounts changed nothing. But Delahunt went to court, claiming that ballots that should have been his were mistakenly counted as blank. A state Superior Court judge agreed and declared Delahunt the winner. It was a process that took more than a month. But it did not involve the unseating of a member of Congress.

In perhaps the most closely watched race of the night, Democrat Bill Owens has won the vacant congressional seat in upstate New York -- making him the first Democrat to carry the district since the mid-19th Century.

He defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, who was backed by national conservative and GOP leaders, who was disenchanted with the positions taken by Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. Scozzafava, out of money and running a poor third in the polls, dropped out of the race on Saturday and endorsed the Democratic candidate on Sunday.

More on this on Wednesday.

Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate for Congress in Tuesday's special election in upstate New York's 23rd CD, has withdrawn from the race.

Once the frontrunner in this historically Republican district, Scozzafava, a 10-year state assemblywoman, has watched her numbers collapse in the wake of attacks from Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, as well as conservatives and much of the GOP establishment from around the country, over her voting record, which they saw as out of touch with the party; she supports abortion rights, gay marriage, the Obama economic stimulus package, etc. The latest polls showed her in third place.

The Democratic nominee for this seat, which became vacant when Rep. John McHugh (R) left to become President Obama's secretary of the army, is first-time candidate Bill Owens.

More to come.

The term "dirty tricks" is thrown around a lot in politics, sometimes warranted, most of the time not. Often it's the favorite term of someone in politics who gets outsmarted and can't explain away what happened other than deciding it was a dirty trick.

For it to be a dirty trick, it usually should be something that's, well, dirty.

The late William Safire knew a dirty trick when he saw one. He often wrote about them. The obscene rumors spead by the Bush campaign about John McCain during the 2000 South Carolina primary -- that Bridget, the young Bangladeshi child brought to the U.S. by wife Cindy and later adopted by the McCains, was really the senator's "illegitimate black love child." That was particularly distasteful. Or the one in 2008 by the Hillary Clinton co-chair in New Hampshire, who brought up the youthful drug use by Barack Obama and expressed faux remorse over the "fear" that Republicans would use the information as a dirty trick. You get the picture.

I think it's fair to say that we have another dirty trick at work, in this year's special congressional race in upstate New York.

That's the one vacated by now-Army Secretary John McHugh. It's been in Republican hands since there was a Republican Party. But the GOP candidate, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, has taken positions on various social and fiscal issues that have infuriated conservatives in the party ... so much so that many of them are backing the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman. The split in the Republican ranks could very well elect a Democrat, Bill Owens.

The race has received national attention for weeks now, and tons of money are being poured into the district, the 23rd CD. (Here's my latest post on the race.)

There's a new group called Common Sense In America LLP, and it has just put up an ad, ostensibly on behalf of Scozzafava. It praises her as the "best choice for progressives" and says that because the assemblywoman supports abortion rights, the card-check bill and other liberal positions, all progressives should vote for her.

I say "ostensibly" because Common Sense In America is financed by Arkansas businessman Jackson Stephens -- a board member of Club for Growth, the conservative anti-tax group that is a major backer of Doug Hoffman. Stephens has donated to Hoffman's campaign, as well as the National Republican Senatorial Commitee and conservatives such as Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA).

Josh Kraushaar, writing in Politico, calls it a "dirty trick engineered by Hoffman supporters, looking to render her unacceptable to many Republican voters by detailing her liberal position on gay marriage, support of President Obama's stimulus and connections to labor":

The group's presumed intent with the ad is to trick unsuspecting GOP voters into thinking Scozzafava is the choice of progressives so they will then support her Conservative party challenger, Doug Hoffman. Common Sense in America is spending about $150,000 on the ad buy, and it is up on broadcast and cable in all three media markets in the sprawling upstate New York district.

Scozzafava spokesman Matt Burns accused the Hoffman camp of being behind the ad:

Doug Hoffman has run the most divisive campaign of any candidate, probably in modern political history. He's lied, he's distorted and now he's just using another underhanded tactic because he's desperate.

Here's the ad. You decide.

Political junkies everywhere are glued to what's going on in New York's 23rd congressional district, that upstate special election for a seat that hasn't gone Democratic since there has been a Republican Party. But the GOP candidate there is in real jeopardy, and in fact some speculate that she could finish third in a field of three. (See yesterday's post.)

Less attention -- far less attention -- is being placed on the other special congressional election that will be decided on Tuesday. That's in California's 10th District, necessitated when Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) resigned to take a post in the State Department.

The dearth of coverage is not surprising. Since she first won the seat in 1996, knocking off GOP incumbent Bill Baker -- and especially since the 10th was redistricted -- Tauscher has had no trouble winning. Last year, she got 65 percent of the vote. So, on paper at least, it's hardly one that bears watching.

Not so, say Republicans. Their candidate is David Harmer, an attorney and son of John Harmer, who briefly served as Ronald Reagan's lt. gov. some three-plus decades ago. The GOP says voters are tired of the status quo and are ready for change. A poll conducted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in early October had Harmer within seven points.

I don't think it will be that close.

One reason is the district's demographics. Democrats have an 18-point advantage in voter registration. The other is the Democratic candidate. He is John Garamendi, the state's lt. gov., who got into the race when his bid for his party's gubernatorial nomination was going nowhere.

Garamendi is a well-known fixture in Democratic politics, having also been elected statewide as insurance commissioner in both 2002 and 1990. He also ran for governor in the 1994 and 1982 primaries, as well as the primary for state controller in 1986. His win-loss record may not be terribly impressive, but this looks like one he's going to take.

The Contra Costa Times has endorsed Garamendi:

Voters will easily be able to discern the differences between Garamendi and Harmer, who disagree considerably on the major issues facing the nation and district.

Garamendi supports single-payer health insurance. Harmer does not. Harmer opposed the federal stimulus package. Garamendi supported it. Garamendi wants a strong cap-and-trade system to help cut greenhouse gas emissions. Harmer calls it an onerous burden on consumers.

Garamendi supports the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and a change in the law to allow same-sex couples to legally marry. Harmer has not taken strong positions on either. ...

With eight years' experience as insurance commissioner, Garamendi has valuable knowledge needed to make informed decisions about health care reform. As a rancher and with service in the federal Department of Interior, he has credibility with agricultural interests and environmentalists, which puts him in a favorable position to work on critical water issues that affect the Delta. ...

Harmer is a well-informed and an articulate candidate who could have a political future, perhaps as a candidate for the California Assembly.

However, he lacks Garamendi's long record of government service in public office and likely would not have as much influence in Washington, D.C., to benefit the district. We believe Garamendi's experience can better serve area interests and that he deserves voter support on Tuesday.

Buckley was elected to the Senate in 1970 as a Conservative, defeating Republican and Democratic Party nominees.

The story line for the Nov. 3 special congressional election in upstate New York's 23rd District has been pretty consistent in the past several weeks. This is the seat vacated by Republican John McHugh, who was picked by President Obama to become the Secretary of the Army. The seat has never gone to a Democrat.

But the Republican candidate, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, is being viewed with suspicion, if not dismay, by a growing number of conservatives for her positions on an assortment of issues, including abortion, same-sex marriage and taxes. In many states, the choice for conservatives would be limited: hold your nose and vote for the Republican candidate, or sit home.

In New York, there is another choice: Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, who was endorsed by the third party after he failed to secure the GOP nod. For the longest time, polls have shown Hoffman eating into Scozzafava's support. Three weeks ago, Hoffman's numbers were a nuisance to the GOP. Then, a Siena College poll showed Hoffman costing Scozzafava the lead, which she had held from the beginning.

Continue reading "NY 23: Can Doug Hoffman Pull A 'Buckley?'" >

Two initial reactions to watching last night's first Democratic candidate debate for the Senate in Massachusetts:

First, I was about to say that it's hard to overstate the tough task they face, of trying to fill the shoes of the late Ted Kennedy. And that is true, not only of the four Democrats but of the likely Republican candidate, state Sen. Scott Brown.

But then I thought of what Kennedy was like when he himself was making his maiden Senate run, in 1962. He was just 30, barely old enough to run, with hardly an impressive resume, other than being the brother of the president of the United States. There was that famous line uttered by his debate opponent, Democratic state Attorney General Ed McCormack, who said, "Teddy, if your name was Edward Moore instead of Edward Moore Kennedy, your candidacy would be a joke."

It took years in the Senate, and national tragedy, to elevate Kennedy to the heights he reached before his death in August. So if I didn't see another Ted Kennedy in last night's debate, that's forgivable.

And second, I've never been a fan of deciding "winners" and "losers" in watching these debates. But I did come away with some impressions, which I will now share with you:

Continue reading "Mass. Senate: Observations From First Democratic Candidate Debate" >

The first debate in the Democratic race to succeed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) takes place tonight at 7 pm ET. The one-hour event will be held at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston, and it will be televised on WCVB, WBZ, WHDH, NECN and WGBH.

Better yet, it will be streamed live on the Web site of member station WBUR. Here's the link.

Four candidates are in the running for the Democratic nomination, which will be decided in the Dec. 8 primary: state Attorney General Martha Coakley, U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, and Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca. For the Boston Globe's Matt Viser, it's more like Coakley vs. the rest of them:

Every week, it seems that Attorney General Martha Coakley looks for ways to tell voters she has the US Senate race in the bag.

First, she announced she had raised an impressive $2.2 million in the opening weeks of the campaign. The week after, she trumpeted internal polling numbers that indicated she was light-years ahead. Then it was a slew of endorsements from state lawmakers, women leaders, and Massachusetts unions.

"Isn't that how you win any race?'' Coakley said in an interview. "Getting ahead and staying there?''

Nearly halfway through the contest to succeed Edward M. Kennedy, Coakley is running a classic front-runner's campaign: guarding her image closely, limiting opportunities for missteps, and broadcasting strength in any way she can.

Tonight's debate is seen as Coakley's first "major test," a "potential game-changing event" in the battle for the Dem nomination. Suffolk University professor John Berg calls it "Coakley's to lose."

And that is understandable. As the only woman, the first candidate to enter, and the only one to have run statewide, she has built-in advantages.

As for the other candidates, Pagliuca, a multi-millionaire, is up with a blitz of TV ads, arguing that he "can best bring jobs to Massachusetts." Khazei is employing classic grass-roots tactics, using "an army of citizen supporters." (This is the first campaign for both Pagliuca and Khazei.) As for Capuano, he is seen as "her top challenger":

Capuano continues to peg himself as an "underdog,'' but he argues that Coakley is no longer presumed to be the automatic winner. ...

"I'm sensing exactly what I wanted to sense, which is the coronation was stopped,'' he said in an interview. "It's pretty much a two-way race now. People are slowly, slowly starting to make their judgments.''

The clear Republican frontrunner for the seat is state Sen. Scott Brown. Jack E. Robinson, who got clobbered by Kennedy as the GOP Senate nominee back in 2000, has filed signatures to get on the Dec. 8 primary ballot. Robinson has been called a "scandal magnet" by the Boston Herald's Hillary Chabot for a series of controversies, including his failure to pay $70,000 in taxes. He also claimed to be related to the great baseball player Jackie Robinson, "but the player's widow had never heard of him."

The special general election is Jan. 19. Paul Kirk (D), appointed to the Senate last month by Gov. Deval Patrick, will serve until then.

The nightmare Republicans experienced back in March, when they failed to pick up the House seat of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) in upstate New York, may be on the verge of repeating itself in another special election.

A new poll taken in New York's 23rd District -- the one vacated by now-Army Secretary John McHugh -- shows Democrat Bill Owens, a first-time candidate, with a narrow lead. The district has never elected a Democrat in its history. The efforts by GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, a pro-choice moderate state assemblywoman, to unite Republicans and independents behind her candidacy are not going well. Doug Hoffman, who became the Conservative Party candidate after he failed to win the GOP nod, is pulling nearly a quarter of the vote in this solidly Republican district. He is boasting a slew of endorsements, including that of Club for Growth. Both Hoffman and Owens are vastly outspending Scozzafava in the race, which will be decided on Nov. 3.

Here are the latest numbers in the Siena College poll, released today:

Owens 33
Scozzafava 29
Hoffman 23

Continue reading "Democrat Takes Lead In NY 23 Special" >

Here's what we know about the decision by Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) to resign his congressional seat:

He's leaving to become president of the Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation in January. The Center's chairman, Daniel Abraham, is thrilled:

This is a great day for the Center and for those who work to achieve Middle East peace. Robert will hit the ground running and employ his skill and vision to help us achieve the peace that Israelis and Arabs seek.

What we don't know is why he is doing this. A "fire-breathing liberal" (to quote the title of his 2008 book) first elected in 1996, Wexler has probably never felt as home, ideologically, as he does now in the strongly Democratic House. But as an unwavering supporter of Israel, might Wexler feel that he and the Obama administration are at odds on how to achieve peace?

Whatever reason he's leaving, Brad Friedman, writing in his Brad Blog, will certainly miss him.

Losing Wexler will be a loss to progressive Democrats in the House given his historic tenacity on any number of issues, from taking on the nonsense of the Clinton Impeachment, to fighting for the responsible Bush Impeachment, to fighting for electoral integrity in the state of Florida. That'll be one less bulldog with a "D" by his name, unfortunately, in a House that could use a lot more of 'em.

The Broward Politics blog at the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel lists Broward Mayor Stacy Ritter and state Sens. Jeremy Ring & Ted Deutch, all Democrats, as potential candidates for the special election. Gov. Charlie Crist may announce the date of the special as early as today. The district is heavily Democratic.

UPDATE: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) is quoted by various sources as saying Wexler told him that his resignation was partly a result of financial concerns; Wexler has three daughters who are or will be attending college.

It wasn't that long ago when Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) was plucked out of near obscurity from her upstate New York congressional seat to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate. Republicans, who lost the NY 20 House seat to Gillibrand in 2006 when their incumbent self-destructed, were licking their lips in anticipation of recapturing the seat in a special election.

They failed. Back in March, when Scott Murphy (D) upset Jim Tedisco (R), the GOP was still in disarray and President Obama was still flying high in approval ratings.

That brings us to NY 23. Of New York's 29 congressional seats, the GOP holds three. Or two, now that Rep. John McHugh (R) has resigned to become Secretary of the Army. McHugh, first elected in 1992, was invincible at home. And why not? He is well-liked and attentive to the needs of his district. Plus, the seat has been in Republican hands only forever. So there's no reason why the Republicans shouldn't hold on to the seat, right?

Here's the rub. The GOP has nominated state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a moderate who has a good relationship with organized labor, and who has gotten good press from the liberal Daily Kos Web site. And as the left praises Scozzafava -- perhaps with an ulterior motive -- the right gets more excited about Doug Hoffman.

Continue reading "GOP Split Could Give Dems NY 23 -- For The First Time In History" >

The Massachusetts state Senate is expected to begin debate at 11 a.m. ET today on a bill that would change state law ... and give Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the power to make an interim appointment to fill the vacancy in the U.S. Senate created by the Aug. 25 death of Edward Kennedy. That person would serve until the Jan. 19 special election.

Last week the state House voted 95-58 to approve the bill. The Senate vote is expected to be closer, even though Republicans are badly outnumbered in both chambers; there is some squeamishness in the Dem camp over charges of hypocrisy, given the fact that they took the power of Senate appointment away from the governor in 2004, when Sen. John Kerry (D) was running for president and a Republican governor, Mitt Romney, could have named a GOP successor. But that was then, and this is now.

Republicans have used parliamentary tactics to twice postpone the debate in the Senate, on Friday and again yesterday. They have indicated they will let allow debate today.

Assuming the Senate passes the measure, Patrick is expected to sign it tomorrow.

And he could name a Senate successor shortly after that. Names on the list are thought to include former Gov. Michael Dukakis, ex-DNC chair Paul Kirk (who is a former Kennedy aide), Harvard Law School professor Charle Ogletree, and ex-Lt. Gov. Evelyn Murphy. Massachusetts has never had a female senator.

The overwhelming Democratic majority in the Massachusetts House voted yesterday to change state law and allow Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to name an interim successor to the late Sen. Edward Kennedy.

The vote in the similarly Democratic state Senate has been postponed until next week. The rules say that a single senator can postpone debate until the next session, and that's what state Sen. Bruce Tarr (R) accomplished today. The Senate meets again on Monday; Republicans command just five of the 40 Senate seats.

Yesterday's House vote was 95-58. The Senate vote is expected to be closer, as some Democrats have expressed unease in changing the law -- a law they changed once before, in 2004, when Sen. John Kerry (D) was running for president, and Democratic lawmakers didn't want to give the then-Republican governor, Mitt Romney, the power to name a successor.

A "key development" in the move to change the law on Senate succession in Massachusetts is the decision by House Speaker Robert DeLeo (D), who has been "publicly noncommittal," to now support a proposal that would give Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the power to name an interim senator in advance of the Jan. 19 special election to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy and yes, this is all one sentence.

Continue reading "Mass. Senate: Votes To Change Succession Law May Come Thursday" >

No word yet on when, or even if, there will be a vote in the Massachusetts legislature on a motion to change state law to give Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the power to name an interim successor to Sen. Edward Kennedy, who died on Aug. 25.

But in the meantime, there is no shortage of activity regarding potential candidates for the special election, which is set for Jan. 19. (Primaries: Dec. 8.) Here's the latest:

DEMOCRATS: Rep. John Tierney announced today he is not running. He joins two other prominent Democrats who said in recent days that they won't run, Rep. Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan, now the chancellor at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Both have huge stockpiles of cash that they could have used in a Senate run. For Markey, this was his second change of heart on a Senate bid; he briefly was a candidate in 1984, when Sen. Paul Tsongas (D) was retiring, but pulled out to resume his House career. As of now, it looks like the Dem field will consist of state Attorney General Martha Coakley and two members of Congress, Stephen Lynch & Michael Capuano. Only Coakley has officially declared her candidacy; she has been endorsed by EMILY's List, the organization that raises money to elect pro-choice Democratic women.

REPUBLICANS: State Sen. Scott Brown, on his 50th birthday, declared his candidacy yesterday, promising to shrink the size of government. Andy Card, the White House chief of staff under Bush 43, announced Friday that after serious consideration he will not run. Brown had said he would have stood aside if Card got in the race.

Two situations had been holding up the decisions of potential candidates for the Massachusetts Senate seat vacated by the Aug. 25 death of Edward Kennedy.

One was the persistent rumor, usually denied, that his widow, Vicki Reggie Kennedy, might run. By now the sense even among her strongest backers is that she will not.

The other was what Joseph Kennedy II planned to do. The son of the late Robert Kennedy, Joe Kennedy had served in Congress from 1987 until 1998, when he toyed with a gubernatorial campaign but ultimately decided to retire. Speculation that he planned to reenter the political arena spread following his emotional eulogy at his uncle's funeral. Many would-be senators held off announcing their plans in deference to Kennedy.

Not everyone, of course. State Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) launched her campaign last week, saying she was in the race no matter who else entered, and Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) had taken out nominating papers with the intent to run.

But Joe Kennedy's decision yesterday made it clear that he's not going to stand in anyone's way:

Given all that my uncle accomplished, it was only natural to consider getting back involved in public office, and I appreciate all the calls of support and friendship that have poured in. After much consideration, I have decided that the best way for me to contribute to those causes is by continuing my work at Citizens Energy Corporation.

Continue reading "Joe Kennedy Won't Run In Mass.; Senate Field Expected To Widen" >

As a long-suffering Yankees fan -- have I reminded you we haven't won the World Series since 2000??! -- I still have this image ingrained in my head: Curt Schilling, he of the bloody Red Sox and the legendary Bloody Red Sock -- shutting down the Yankees, part of the team that came back from an 0-3 deficit against New York and then went on to sweep the 2004 World Series.

Schilling is now talking about possibly getting in the race for the Senate seat left vacant by the Aug. 25 death of Edward Kennedy.

Schilling is a god in much of Red Sox Nation, mostly (but not only) for his gritty performance in the '04 playoffs in bringing Boston its first World Series since Woodrow Wilson was president.

But here's the rub: Curt Schilling is a Republican. Or at least, a conservative. And Massachusetts is as blue a state as they come. Barack Obama carried it with 62 percent of the vote. The governor, both senators, and all ten House members are Democrats. No Republican has won a Senate seat here since 1972. No Republican has succeeded a Democratic senator since 1946.

Continue reading "The Massachusetts Dilemma: Curt Schilling (R) For Senate" >

Garamendi made the smart move of bypassing a prospective gov candidacy to run for Congress.

It looks like California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi will be coming to Congress.

A dropout in the 2010 race for governor, Garamendi topped the field of candidates in yesterday's special primary in California's 10th District to succeed former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D), who left the House earlier this year to take a job in the Obama State Department.

State law mandates that all candidates run on the same ballot in a special election, with the top Democrat facing the top Republican in a runoff. With the 10th CD seen as a comfortable Democratic bastion -- President Obama took about 65 percent of the district's vote last year -- all eyes were on the Democratic field.

With all votes counted, Garamendi took 26 percent of the vote. The top Republican was attorney David Harmer, who received 21 percent. Harmer's father John was lieutenant governor for a brief time in the 1970s.

The rest of the field consisted mostly of Democrats. State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, endorsed by Tauscher and an assortment of liberal groups, finished third with 18 percent. State Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who spent a lot of her own money on the campaign and was backed by EMILY's List, was fourth with 12 percent. Iraq War vet Anthony Woods, an African-American who is openly gay, took 8 percent.

Tauscher first won the seat, which is situated in the suburbs east of San Francisco, in 1996 with a narrow victory over GOP incumbent Bill Baker. But she has won comfortably ever since, including a 65 percent win last year.

Garamendi was a relatively latecomer to the campaign, having focused on the race to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger until he realized he was getting no traction. He doesn't live in the district, which was one of the issues his opponents tried to use against him.

The runoff will be held on election day, Nov. 3. If Garamendi wins, Schwarzenegger would appoint a new LG -- as Gov. Ronald Reagan did in 1974 when he named John Harmer to succeed Ed Reinecke, who resigned. Whoever he picks would have to be approved by the Dem-controlled state legislature.

Here's what we know so far about the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts.

As announced yesterday by Gov. Deval Patrick (D), the general election will be held on Jan. 19. More important -- since the odds of a Republican winning the seat are somewhere between slim and none -- the primary is Dec. 8. It's the Democratic primary that will let us know who will fill Kennedy's seat for the next three-plus years.

The asterisk in all of this is the increasing likelihood that the state legislature will come back later this month and change the law, allowing Patrick to name an interim senator who will serve until the special election.

Continue reading "A Real Senate Race In Massachusetts? Or An 'All In The Family' Rerun?" >

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick set Jan. 19, 2010 as the date for the special Senate election to succeed the late Edward Kennedy. Whoever wins would serve until the end of Kennedy's term, in January of 2013.

Also, as expected, Patrick said he wants the legislature to change the law on succession that would give him the power to name an interim senator. State lawmakers are expected to begin the process on Sept. 9.

Pleitez was one of two major Hispanic candidates who ran in the initial May primary.

The contest to succeed Rep. Hilda Solis (D), who resigned her congressional seat to become secretary of labor, turned out, as expected, not to be much of a contest at all.

With all votes counted in California's 32nd Congressional District, Judy Chu, a Democrat who serves on the state Board of Equalization, took 62 percent of the vote, easily topping Republican Betty Chu, a relative through marriage, with 33 percent, in Tuesday's special election. Christopher Agrella, the Libertarian Party candidate, received five percent.

The district is overwhelmingly Democratic and approximately 62 percent Hispanic. In the initial May primary, two Hispanic candidates, state Sen. Gil Cedillo and activist Emanuel Pleitez, captured 37 percent of the vote between them. Judy Chu, who is Chinese-American, won some key endorsements by Hispanics, notably Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and many members of Solis' family. She led the initial field of candidates with 33 percent.

The victory of Chu -- who becomes the first Chinese-American woman ever elected to Congress -- makes the House lineup 256 Democrats and 178 Republicans. One district, California's 10th, is vacant, following Rep. Ellen Tauscher's (D) resignation to join the Obama administration. Another district, New York's 23rd, will also soon be vacant; the incumbent, Republican John McHugh, has been nominated as secretary of the Army.

President Obama made it official today. He nominated Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) to be secretary of the Army.

And that means only one thing, at least for political junkies: There will be a ferocious fight in New York's 23rd Congressional District to pick a successor to McHugh.

Continue reading "Do Dems Have A Shot At McHugh's Soon-To-Be-Open NY 23?" >

It won't become official until July 14, because no one received a majority of the votes in Tuesday's special congressional primary to replace now-Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis in California's 32nd District.

But once all is said and done, and the runoff is history, the next member of Congress from the district, which is centered in east Los Angeles, will be Judy Chu.

Chu, the chair of the California Board of Equalization, was the leading Democrat in the special primary, where everyone ran on the same ballot and the top candidate of each party advances to the July runoff. With about 89 percent of the votes tallied as of this writing, Chu has 32 percent of the vote, compared with 24 percent for state Sen. Gil Cedillo (D). Chu heads to the runoff against Republican Betty Chu, a cousin, and Christopher Agrella, the Libertarian Party candidate.

Yesterday's result, which was expected, brings to an end the Hispanic hold on the seat after nearly 27 years -- since George Danielson (D) resigned in 1982 to become a judge. (Matthew Martinez held it from '82 until he lost to Solis in the 2000 Democratic primary.)

The district's demographics show two-thirds of the population Hispanic, 20 percent Asian, 12 percent white and 2 percent black.

Other Results. Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl won renomination in yesterday's Democratic primary. In an overwhelmingly Democratic city and with no Republican running, Ravenstahl is all but guaranteed another term.

And in Philadelphia, Seth Williams, a former assistant prosecutor, won the Democratic primary for district attorney. The incumbent, Lynne Abraham (D), is retiring after 18 years. With a victory in November, Williams will become the city's first African-American D.A.

California's 32nd Congressional District, just east of Los Angeles, is about 63 percent Latino, 22 percent Asian. It is the seat held since 2001 by Hilda Solis (D), now the secretary of labor. Prior to that, it was held for 18 years by Matthew Martinez, a Democrat, who lost to Solis in the 2000 primary at the age of 71 amid charges that he was ineffective and invisible.

But if anecdotal evidence is to be believed, this overwhelmingly Hispanic district may send an Asian woman, Judy Chu, on her way to Congress in Tuesday's special primary.

Continue reading "Judy Chu Has Edge In CA 32 Special Election On Tuesday" >

It's over in NY 20: Murphy (D) wins.

They wanna stretch it out in Minnesota? Let 'em.

Not in New York 20.

Democrat Scott Murphy, a businessman making his first race, has won the special election (held March 31) in New York's 20th Congressional District to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D). All the votes are apparently in, and Murphy has defeated Jim Tedisco, the former state Senate minority leader, by 401 votes. Tedisco conceded the race this afternoon.

Continue reading "Democrat Scott Murphy Wins NY 20 Seat; Tedisco (R) Concedes" >

Buttons courtesy of Tom Keefe, Albany, N.Y.

It's been 163 days since voters in Minnesota went to the polls expecting to determine a winner in the battle for a Senate seat.

It's been 16 days since voters in New York's 20th Congressional District went to the polls to name a successor to Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated by now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Neither the Minnesota Senate seat nor the upstate New York House seat has been filled. Neither one is officially over. But both are clearly heading in the Democrats' direction. Both are likely to result in victory by the Democrat.

But before we get there, while the Senate race has long ago gone from voting booth to court chambers, there is a chance the New York contest could find itself before judges as well.

Continue reading "As Murphy (D) Pulls Ahead, Will NY 20 Become Another Minn.?" >

Quigley, a Cook County commissioner, will become the newest member of Congress.

In a special congressional election that had none of the drama or controversy that we saw in NY 20 -- the still-undecided battle between Scott Murphy (D) and Jim Tedisco (R) -- voters in Illinois' 5th CD made an unambiguous decision yesterday. They chose Democrat Mike Quigley, a Cook County commissioner, to replace now-White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in Congress.

With 99 percent of the vote counted, Quigley received 69 percent of the vote (30,122), to 24 percent for Republican Rosanna Pulido (10,513) and 7 percent for Green Party candidate Matt Reichel (2,868).

Continue reading "New Congressman: Quigley Replaces Rahm In IL 05" >

While the counting of absentee ballots goes on in New York 20 -- the dead-even race to succeed now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) -- less drama is expected tomorrow in Illinois' 5th District.

That's the one vacated by Rahm Emanuel (D), who became President Obama's chief of staff. Mike Quigley, the Democratic candidate and Cook County commissioner, is the odds-on favorite over Rosanna Pulido (R) and Green Party candidate Matt Reichel. Quigley won the all-important Democratic primary on March 3, when his record of battling corruption and old-school politics earned him the endorsement of both the Chicago Tribune and the Sun-Times.

The district last voted for a Republican in 1994, when Michael Patrick Flanagan unseated Dan Rostenkowski, who was chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and under indictment. He lasted one term, losing to some guy named Rod Blagojevich in 1996.

And prior to that, the last Republican? Peter Granata, elected in 1930, also for one term.

Tuesday's election should not be close.

In addition to NY 20, two other House seats, both in California, will be getting new incumbents soon. There's a special election on May 19 in the overwhelmingly Democratic 32nd CD, which Hilda Solis (D) left to become secretary of labor. There are six Democrats, one Republican, one Libertarian and one Peace and Freedom candidate on the ballot, but all eyes are on two Dems: state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Vice Chairwoman Judy Chu.

The other district, the 10th, will become vacant once Ellen Tauscher (D) is confirmed as undersecretary of state. Created in 1992, it went Republican in '92 and '94 before Tauscher narrowly won it in '96. But it has become far more Democratic in the last round of redistricting and Dems are likely to retain it.

The bragging rights are going to have to wait a bit longer. First, there are recriminations and warnings about stealing elections to deal with.

In the political world, where each new day's event becomes the subject of worldwide attention, Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th Congressional District became ground zero for political junkies.

Continue reading "Dead Even In NY 20, But Some Declare Winners/Losers" >

Well, to use an old New Orleans expression, Holy Toledo!

Rep. William Jefferson, (D) who in 1991 became Louisiana's first African-American congressman since Reconstruction, was defeated Saturday by Anh "Joseph" Cao in a runoff. Cao, a Republican, becomes the first Vietnamese-American elected to Congress. The district is overwhelmingly African-American and overwhelmingly Democratic.

Jefferson had been under indictment since 2007. Federal prosecutors said they had found $90,000 in alleged bribe money stashed away in his freezer. The FBI said it had Jefferson on videotape accepting bribes, money he received from businessmen in exchange for his influence in Congress to broker deals in several African nations. Jefferson says he is innocent.

Even when reports of wrongdoing came out in 2006 — and even when he became a national punch line with late-night comedians — Jefferson managed to win re-election. As it was, when he survived a multicandidate primary this year on Nov. 4 (a primary delayed because of Hurricane Gustav), most people thought he was, again, home free, at least politically. Cao, whose sum total of election experience was an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the state Legislature in 2007, was boosted by an aggressive GOP effort to portray Jefferson as corrupt. But practically no one thought the campaign would succeed.

Jefferson was first elected to Congress in 1990. The incumbent Democrat from the 2nd District, Lindy Boggs, bowed to reality and chose not to run again that year; she had been the sole remaining white incumbent in a black-majority district. Jefferson had won re-election handily ever since until 2006, when he was forced into a runoff as reports of his ethics woes became widespread. Nonetheless, he defeated fellow Democrat Karen Carter with 56.5 percent of the vote.

In another Louisiana runoff Saturday, in the 4th District (centered in Shreveport), Republicans apparently have retained the seat of retiring incumbent Jim McCrery. John Fleming, (R) a physician, held a 356-vote lead over Democrat Paul Carmouche.

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), forced into a runoff when neither he nor his Democratic opponent, Jim Martin, received a majority of the vote on Nov. 4, has won re-election.

With about 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Chambliss, seeking a second term, has about 59 percent of the vote. In last month's initial contest, Chambliss led Martin by 110,000 votes but fell just shy of winning a majority (49.8 percent), as required by state law; a third-party candidate siphoned off about 3 percent of the vote.

Chambliss' victory — in a state won by John McCain on Nov. 4 — ends Democratic hopes of achieving a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats. Democrats will hold 58 seats in the 111th Congress, with results in one other state, Minnesota, still to be determined.

Today's Senate runoff in Georgia has been called a lot of things. "The first salvo in the 2010 midterms!" No, wait: "The beginning of the battle for the White House in 2012!!" How about: "Retribution for 2008!!!" I've even heard someone call it this year's version of the Spanish Civil War, with both candidates used as proxies. (Wait, that was me.)

Whatever you want to call it, it has kept our attention these past four weeks.

The reason we're at this point is that although Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) received 110,000 votes more than Jim Martin, his Democratic challenger, he failed — because of the vote siphoned off by the Libertarian Party nominee — to break 50 percent, as required by state law; he wound up with 49.8 percent of the vote. And thus the runoff.

 

(The last time a Georgia Senate race went to a runoff? That was in 1992, and it was insightfully and emotionally recounted in a blog posting yesterday.)

Both parties have sent a virtual who's-who to the Peach State on behalf of the candidates — a list that includes a former president, a former almost-president, a former wishes-he-were-president-elect, a former wishes-she-were-vice-president-elect, and a whole slew of wannabe presidents. For the Democrats, Bill Clinton has been in to campaign for Martin, as have Al Gore and Congressman John Lewis, as well as hip-hop stars T.I., Young Jeezy and Ludacris. For the Republicans, there's been John McCain (who carried the state on Nov. 4 by 200,000), Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and, last but not least, Sarah Palin. FYI, there was more footage of the Alaska governor on cable TV yesterday than there was of the Senate candidates.

I'm not sure which was more surreal: the sight of Martin, a low-key former state legislator, campaigning with Ludacris, or the fact that at her Augusta appearance, there were tons of "Palin 2012" T-shirts and "Palin for President: You Go Girl" buttons. The 2008 elections are less than a month old and we're talking about 2012! Ludacris, indeed.

The importance of the race is clear: Democrats would love to get to the magic number of 60 Senate seats — they're currently at 58 — which, theoretically, would make the Senate impervious to Republican filibusters. The only way to get to 60 is for Martin to defeat Chambliss today, and for Al Franken to win the Senate recount in Minnesota over GOP incumbent Norm Coleman. And that one won't be decided for two more weeks.

Democrats would also love the chance for payback against Chambliss, who they say ran a nasty and dishonest campaign six years ago when he unseated Sen. Max Cleland.

Republicans, on the other hand, would love to rain on the Democrats' parade that has been all but nonstop since Nov. 4. They lost seven seats on Election Day — in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia — and a defeat today would be devastating, especially considering the fact that Martin wasn't initially seen as any kind of threat. They're talking about Martin being a "rubber stamp" for Obama, and that only Chambliss can keep the Senate GOP relevant. They need to come away with a victory, even though it's a seat that once was seen as a slam-dunk.

Big question: the size of today's black turnout. Without Barack Obama on the ballot — and without him even coming into the state to campaign (though he recorded a radio ad for Martin) — the number of African-Americans showing up is a question mark. There is anecdotal evidence showing a decline in black voter turnout for the runoff.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Atlanta weather (or at least north Fulton County weather), as per NPR's Kathy Lohr: sunny and cool, high of about 45 degrees.

Predictions, anyone? (I say Chambliss.)

A new Democratic president elected at a time of economic uncertainty, a Georgia senator thrown into a runoff because while he won the most votes, he failed to reach 50 percent of the vote in the first go-around.

2008 yes, but also 1992. And maybe that's one of the reasons President-elect Barack Obama is not campaigning for Democrat Jim Martin in the Peach State for tomorrow's runoff.

Back in 1992, Bill Clinton, then the governor of Arkansas, was elected president, carrying Georgia in the process (the last Democrat to do so, by the way). Georgia was a completely different state back then. Its two senators were Democrats, its governor was a Democrat, and nine of the state's 10 members of the House (save one Newt Gingrich) were Democrats. In the Senate race that year, first-term incumbent Wyche Fowler led Republican challenger Paul Coverdell by 35,000 votes, but he failed to win an outright majority; he captured 49.2 percent of the vote against Coverdell and a Libertarian candidate.

 

Clinton decided to campaign for Fowler in the runoff, which took place three weeks later. But the Democratic base that came out on Nov. 3 was less energized for the runoff. Republicans, on the other hand, went all out for Coverdell, who as it was had to struggle to win his party's nomination against Bob Barr, at the time a former U.S. attorney and two years away from winning a seat in Congress. In the runoff, Coverdell unseated Fowler by just over 16,000 votes (out of 1.2 million cast), foreshadowing a Republican uprising that was to come two years later.

There is no shortage of Democrats campaigning on behalf of Jim Martin, notably Mr. Clinton himself, Al Gore, Donna Brazile and others. Just no Barack Obama. And, perhaps, with other things on his mind — he is still assembling his Cabinet, and the Dow is down more than 670 points today, not to mention the fact that John McCain, after all, carried the state — risking political capital less than a month after his election may not be the way to go.