The Expectations Game

Setting expectations is a tricky business for politicians. You want to appear confident, because it makes you look strong and intimidating...but not TOO confident because then you seem cocky and risk publicly falling short of your goals.

So at a press briefing today, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), the respective heads of the committees working to elect (and re-elect) Democrats to the Senate and the House, were endeavoring to toe that line. While they touted their party's unprecedented field operations, vastly improved early voter contact strategy, solid fundraising, and progress in the polls, Van Hollen warned against "irrational exuberance" among House candidates and Schumer cautioned that the Senate map is one of the "reddest...in a very long time" -- i.e. many of the contested seats are in majority-Republican states.

Nonetheless, Schumer's assessment of the Dems' chances were pretty darn optimistic. He repeatedly speculated that while it would be "very hard," Democrats have a chance of achieving a filibuster-proof majority of 60 Senators. (They currently hold a slim majority of 51, including two Independents who caucus with them.) It's a pie-in-the sky idea that Schumer cast as being about as likely as picking up 6 Senate seats was in 2006. Which, you'll recall, they did.

Schumer also gave a remarkably candid breakdown of where those pickups might come from (of the 35 Senate seats at stake this year, 23 are currently held by Republicans). His calls:

Likely Dem Pickups: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska
Close/Even Contests: Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina
Possible Pickups Under The Right Conditions: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Georgia

You can compare Schumer's assessments with those of NPR's political soothsayer Ken Rudin on our interactive Senate map.

-- Evie Stone

3:10 PM ET | 07-23-2008 | permalink

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