Tuesday Morning: Tim Kaine in the Spotlight, Evangelicals Warn Against Romney, and Polls by M.C. Escher

G'day.

In continuing Vice-Presidential speculation Politico and the WP reported late yesterday that VA Gov. (and Terry McAuliffe recommendation) Tim Kaine is on the shortest of lists to be Barack Obama's running mate. From Politico:

Kaine's circle is "under the impression that he's being looked at very, very seriously but he's not the only one," said one of the two Democrats close to Kaine.

"The third floor is definitely focused on this in a real way," said the other Virginia Democrat, referring to Kaine's Capitol offices. "They've been talking about what would happen if he had to leave; they're very keyed up on it."

Kaine has a lot going for him: popularity in a red state that has a chance of turning blue in November; fluent Spanish and cred in the Latino community; appeal to Catholic voters...and he suits the "outsider" criteria Obama outlined on Meet The Press this weekend. But as an almost-one-term Governor it's unclear that Kaine has the foreign policy resume to alleviate voters' concerns about Obama's lack of experience.

This chatter seems awfully leaky coming from Obama's usually-airtight campaign. Is someone talking way out of school?

If this were another campaign, we'd suspect Kaine was being used as a distraction from the the amazingly still-ongoing back and forth over Obama's cancelled visit to wounded troops, or as a decoy to throw the press off the scent of the real pick...but so far strategic leaks haven't been the Obama folks' style. Also rumored to be on the short list: Sens. Evan Bayh (IN) and Joe Biden (DE) and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Meanwhile, over at The Fix, Chris Cilizza continues his exhaustive veep-vetting with a pass at a possible McCain running-mate, former Ohio Congressman and OMB director Rob Portman. As Cilizza points out, in addition to his geographic desirability, Portman could fill a well-publicized gap for McCain:

Portman, according to those who know him well, understands the ins and out of the budget and the economy as well if not better than most staffers -- a deep knowledge that makes him a huge potential resource for McCain both as a surrogate in places like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the economy is the only issue,but also behind closed doors as McCain continues to refine his plans and proposals on the issue.

Elsewhere on the McCain front, the Washington Times reports that evangelicals would be disgruntled if McCain went with former primary opponent Mitt Romney. According to one prominent minister, selecting Romney "would alienate the entire evangelical community" -- a key GOP base with whom McCain is already on shaky ground.

And in case you needed another reason to take national polls in July with a grain of salt, a new poll from USA Today and Gallup has McCain up 4 points over Obama among likely voters. It's McCain's first national polling advantage since the USAT/Gallup showed him up by 1 point in early May, and has obviously attracted a lot of attention. Confusingly, those numbers conflict with separate Gallup (!) tracking poll numbers for the same period that gave Obama an 8-point advantage over McCain. Also weird: the USAT/Gallup poll that puts McCain ahead among likely voters gives Obama a 3-point advantage among registered voters. In other words, the poll estimates a vastly heavier turnout among those RVs who favor McCain. For our part, we think we'll wait until September to get all breathless about polling.

Finally, former Hillary Clinton strategist and famed pollster Mark Penn recommends microtargeting the hot new swing demographic of "active grannies." Hey, couldn't hurt.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-29-2008 | permalink

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