Tuesday Morning: Clinton's Campaign Deconstructed, The Dems' Registration Push, and The March of the Obamacans

Good morning.

Joshua Green's much-hyped Atlantic piece detailing the internal sturm und drang of the Hillary Clinton camapign (complete with a raft of leaked internal memos) arrived online last night, and it's got more juicy deets than your average US Weekly. Or anyway, it does for those of us who lapped up every twist and turn of this crazy primary season like starved wolves.

Green's thesis:

Above all, this irony emerges: Clinton ran on the basis of managerial competence--on her capacity, as she liked to put it, to "do the job from Day One." In fact, she never behaved like a chief executive, and her own staff proved to be her Achilles' heel. What is clear from the internal documents is that Clinton's loss derived not from any specific decision she made but rather from the preponderance of the many she did not make. Her hesitancy and habit of avoiding hard choices exacted a price that eventually sank her chances at the presidency.

Clinton's chief strategist Mark Penn takes a bit of a beating for being a divisive figure within the campaign and for pitching some sleazy (and ultimately rejected) ideas to attack Obama. But Penn also earns a measure of redemption for having a prescient understanding of Clinton's base: "women, lower and middle class voters" and for pushing a more aggressive strategy in Iowa, where Clinton ultimately came in third. (The article describes Clinton fuming after a meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board, who asked her why her campaign was so passive).

There's also some justice for Harold Ickes, who it seems was the lone voice in the wilderness on keeping a cash reserve before Iowa, counting delegates, and the importance of figuring out a solution on Michigan and Florida...all of which the campaign ignored for too long, at their peril. Given that Ickes helped create the party's nominating system, many political watchers had wondered how the campaign, with him on board, had so badly miscalculated what it would take to secure the nomination. Apparently they just didn't listen to him. (And Clinton didn't require them to.)

All that said, we must remind you...almost more amazing than the messy internal drama is the fact that despite the festival of misfires Clinton still came within a hair's breadth of being nominated.

Moving on to current events! The Wall Street Journal writes today about the tug-o-war over voter registration in this year's election, reminding us that:

Traditionally, Democrats favor fewer checks on verification and greater access to voting to encourage larger turnouts, particularly among lower-income and minority voters, who tend to favor Democrats. Republicans usually push for closer monitoring, in such forms as laws with strict requirements for voters to present identification, which can result in lower turnout.

The article also also notes:

Numerous studies have found fraud and other voting irregularities in past elections to be infrequent and generally not prevalent enough to influence the outcomes of most contests.

The issue is especially relevant given this year's registration numbers: the 6-week leadup to the Pennsylvania primary enormously boosted Democratic registration in that key swing state (the primary came when the Democratic race was still hot but McCain had already sewed up the GOP nomination). WP's The Trail gives us a window into the Obama camp's ambitious field organization in Virginia, a longtime red state that the Democrats hope to turn blue in November.
And yesterday all-important Florida released its voter registration numbers, which showed 6% growth among registered Democrats since the January 29th primary, and only a 2.5% increase among Republicans. Registered Dems now outnumber registered Republicans in Florida by nearly half a million...but don't forget that popular Republican governor Charlie Crist is a vocal McCain surrogate and possible VP pick, and his influence could trickle down across party lines.

And finally: Republicans for Obama launches today (the official, campaign-sanctioned version) with a conference call featuring former IA Rep. Jim Leach, who lost his seat after redistricting in 2006. Other prominent members of the group: ex-Sen. Linc Chafee of Rhode Island and former Reagan appointee Douglas Kmiec.

-- Evie Stone

11:27 AM ET | 08-12-2008 | permalink

comments | | e-mail