by Evie Stone

Good morning.

Well, the Senators in yesterday's Banking Committee hearing did not give an especially favorable reception to Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke yesterday. Dick Cheney and Josh Bolten didn't find House Republicans hopping on board too enthusiastically, either. And the candidates remain cautious as well. NPR's Scott Horsley has a story about that on Morning Edition today. But as politically unpopular as the bailout package is, it may not be nearly as unpopular as the entire federal government might be if they can't manage to do something about the economy. ABC's Jake Tapper explains that John McCain's opinion may have more sway over the outcome of the bill than he might like.

Senior Democrats on the Hill are worried that Sen. McCain, R-Ariz., will "demagogue" the bill, continue to voice opposition to it, use it to run against both Wall Street and Congress, as well as to distance himself from the Bush White House. Democrats worry McCain will not only vote against the bill, he will provide cover for other Republicans to do so, leaving Democrats holding the bag for the Bush administration's deeply unpopular proposal.

So, if McCain opposes the package he gets to maintain his maverick image, oppose an unpopular bill, and draw a clear line between his campaign and the President. Not to mention, he'd be taking a populist hard line against Wall Street ponzi schemers. But — if Congress fails to act and the markets crash and/or the dollar plummets to near-worthlessness — he'd also potentially be complicit in allowing the US economy to implode. No pressure though! McCain's spokesman tells Tapper that the Senator hasn't decided how he'll vote yet (although it's not 100% clear to us that either candidate will vote on the bill at all...perhaps they're waiting to hear from their respective party whips about the vote count before they schedule breaks from debate prep?) but says when McCain does weigh in he'll do it "appropriately and responsibly."

For Obama's part, the Washington Post reports that the Democrat shares economic advisers with Congressional leadership, enabling him to "exert influence behind the scenes" and create message consistency with the Democratic leadership — leaving him less conspicuous on the issue than his Republican opponent, but subject to being tarred with the same brush as his fellow-Dems if the GOP deserts the bill and they're left stranded with it.

A panoply of news stories this morning link McCain aide Rick Davis to recently-overtaken mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

 

The New York Times reports that Freddie paid Davis's lobbying firm $15,000 a month for their services starting in 2005, continuing through the federal takeover of the company last month, to the total tune of about half a million dollars. That's on top of about two million dollars Davis earned between 2000 and 2005 as the head of an advocacy coalition formed by Fannie and Freddie.

The McCain campaign vehemently denies any impropriety, and insists that Davis never did lobbying work for the mortgage giants. Campaign manager Steve Schmidt hammered the Times in a reporter conference call after they started digging into the story on Monday, and the campaign's blog joined the anti-NYT fray last night. So if you prefer, you can choose from a smorgasboard of other sources that wrote about the Davis-Freddie link this morning: AP, Newsweek, and Roll Call. (Irony alert: only recently the McCain camp was slamming Obama for ties to Fannie Mae execs.)

On the polling front, there's a whole mess of jaw-flapping this morning about a new Washington Post/ABC News poll that shows McCain's post-convention bounce waning. The poll has Obama posting a statistically significant 52-4843 (Sorry, folks, that's an unfortunate typo) lead over McCain (much-ballyhooed statistic of the day: neither Al Gore nor John Kerry ever broke 50% in this poll). Two weeks ago the poll gave McCain a 49-47 advantage. In its fascinating writeup of the numbers, the WP chalks up much of that swing to white voters.

Much of the movement has come among college-educated whites. Whites without college degrees favor McCain by 17 points, while those with college degrees support Obama by 9 points. No Democrat has carried white, college-educated voters in presidential elections dating back to 1980, but they were a key part of Obama's coalition in the primaries.

(snip)

Among white voters, economic anxiety translates into greater support for Obama. He is favored by 54 percent of whites who said they are concerned about the direction of the economy, but by just 10 percent of those who are less worried.

Indeed, the poll shows Obama's lead on the economy widening to 14 points from 5 in the last poll. New LA Times/Bloomberg numbers seem to support the WP/ABC findings, giving Obama a 48-35 lead on the economy.

But don't get too cocky, Obama fans: as we've said before, national polls are interesting (and the internals are valuable) but ultimately they don't mean much in a presidential election. An NPR poll conducted in 14 swing states — where the election will truly be decided — shows the race is a dead heat.

And finally, an Oregon woman has set up a webcam to monitor her Obama yard sign after having two of the placards swiped. According to the Oregonian, the streaming video has become something of a cult hit, with some viewers saying they are "watching the lawn-cam for hours at a time." (h/t Sean Bowditch) So if you don't hear from us for the rest of today, you'll know why.