Friday Morning: Obama On-Air In AZ; McCain Pushes TV Over GOTV; And Tracking The Undecideds

Happy Friday, and Happy Halloween! (Although I have to admit that I don't know what has come over this holiday lately. Seriously.)

FOUR days out, and the candidates and their surrogates are still barnstorming the swing states. McCain continues his Ohio bus tour today, Obama visits Iowa and Indiana, and Al Gore stumps for the Democratic nominee in two symbolic Florida counties.

The Obama campaign announced this morning that they'll be running their closing argument ads in three of 2004's red states where Obama has been closing the gap: Geogria, North Dakota, and...Arizona? Yup, the Dems are making a play for McCain's home state, where some polls show the race tightening. Our Ken Rudin still favors McCain in Arizona. Maybe this ad buy is intended more as psychological warfare.

But as anyone watching primetime TV can tell you, McCain and the RNC are on the air in force as well -- though, as the WP's Matthew Mosk says the advertising push comes at the expense of GOTV operations:

"The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground," said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. "The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel."

Apparently the Wisconsin GOP is up for it.

The differences between the candidates's positions are in many cases stark, and we've been hearing alllll about them for nigh on two years. But according to a new AP poll, 14% of voters are still undecided or say they might change their minds. Who are the voters who haven't figured it out? (Or, as Reuters put it the other day, "what is wrong with these people?") AP explains:

They look a lot like the voters who've already locked onto a candidate, though they're more likely to be white and less likely to be liberal. And they disproportionately backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's failed run for the Democratic nomination.

Specifically, the poll found that four in ten persuadables are onetime Hillary supporters...which may explain this Pennsylvania mailer. Land sakes. Did you ever think you'd see a Republican running on his ties to Hillary Clinton?

The Washington Post and LA Times also look into the undecided question today. The Post explains why they contribute to making this year's race so unpredictable:

For one, pollsters of all stripes see in their surveys an unprecedented interest in the race, which could lead to record turnouts and alter the normal turnout models. The interest is evident in early-voting states. In the Post poll, nearly two in 10 voters, 17 percent, said they have already cast ballots. And 18 percent said they plan to vote before Tuesday.

The consensus among experts (and Ed Rendell) seems to be that the undecideds will largely break for McCain. (See NBC Political Director Chuck Todd's explanation here; Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg's counter-argument -- technically a rebuttal to McCain pollster Bill McInturff -- here.) But by how much? Will it be enough to help him defy the pre-election polling?

And finally, totally unrelated but inspiring as we push through the final miles of this campaign: the women of the 80-90 year old age group (!!) train for the New York City Marathon.

-- Evie Stone

10:30 AM ET | 10-31-2008 | permalink

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