Wednesday Morning: The Image Game; Debate Swan Song; Ad Barrage

Good morning. Wednesday certainly arrived quickly. Evie is headed to Hempstead, NY today to help out with NPR's debate coverage. So I'm taking over the tiller. Be nice.

21 days and ticking...

The Morning Roundup would appear downright naked if we failed to mention the state of the economy. After an eye-popping resurgence on Monday (900-point jump), the Dow followed up with a somewhat lackluster performance yesterday. Stocks fell 76 points, further proof that skittish investors still rule the roost. The volatility in the markets continues to play out in the political arena. An LA Times/Bloomberg poll released late yesterday shows that Obama remains the beneficiary of the economic debacle. Almost half of all voters trust Obama to make sound economic decisions; in contrast, a little over a third trust McCain to do the same. 60 percent support Obama's economic plan, but only about 40 percent back McCain's plan. But the news hardly gets better for McCain: more voters -- 43 to 25 -- believe he has closer ties than Obama to the financial institutions at the center of the Wall Street implosion.

Another poll published last night finds that McCain's steady attacks of Obama in the last few weeks are not sitting well with voters. 60 percent of those surveyed in the New York Times/CBS News poll feel that McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent than discussing the issues. The numbers also indicate that Obama's relationship with 1960's radical William Ayers -- a connection that McCain has hammered in recent weeks -- is not a significant concern among a majority of voters. Might Rev. Jeremiah Wright be on deck? Probably not, says Politico's Mike Allen. But he writes this morning that McCain and his advisors have been at odds over whether to use Wright as a new -- and perhaps the final -- line of attack against Obama. Allen writes that Sarah Palin and several top campaign officials are in favor of bringing up Wright, but McCain, concerned about the blowback, is against the strategy.

Meanwhile, Obama continues to answer questions about his ties to ACORN, a lefty community organizing group that has registered scores of new voters during this election cycle. As the LA Times reports, at the center of the issue is whether ACORN padded election rolls with thousands of suspicious voters, including Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo and Epcot resident Mickey Mouse. McCain has called for an immediate investigation into possible voter fraud and says Obama must more fully explain his connection to the organization. Obama said his one link to ACORN came over a decade ago, when he represented the group in a motor-voter lawsuit against the state of Illinois. The U.S. Justice Department was partnered with Obama in the suit.

As if the days weren't filled with enough political activity, the third and final presidential debate takes center stage tonight. All eyes will likely be on McCain, whose state and national poll numbers continue to sag. By most accounts, McCain needs a big-time, game-changing performance to close the gap. A tie in the eyes of the voters would likely be akin to a loss -- and a devastating one at that. The question is how McCain will attack Obama tonight. Ayers? ACORN? Or will he stick to his economic message? Slate's John Dickerson sizes up McCain's task, a la French cuisine:

If McCain wants to take his destiny into his own hands, he has to knock Obama back. The problem for McCain is that pulling off an effective attack in a debate is like making a souffle in a highway median. (The honking alone makes it very difficult.) It's hard to be aggressive in a debate because the format is so regulated and the risk of coming off as a brute is so high... McCain never really explains why his ability to fight, to buck his party, or to do unpopular things is going to improve anyone's life. Yes, he's been tested more, and endured more in life, than Barack Obama. But voters want to know: How's that help me? McCain has got one more night to make the case.

Time Magazine's Mark Halperin says the recipe for a McCain comeback must contain one key ingredient:

In order to change the dynamic, McCain will have to produce a major memorable moment at the expense of his rival - by forcing an error, exposing a flaw or unattractive trait, or revealing an inconsistency or weakness - which would then be replayed incessantly on the airwaves, rapaciously dissected by the media, and seized upon by the public. McCain's best bet is to ignore all the advice he is getting about what he needs to accomplish and how he should comport himself: don't try to be all things to all strategists. Instead, he should say what he truly believes about his own proposals, about Obama's qualifications, and about the challenges the country faces, without an over-crafted strategy.

Now for a few numbers... The airwaves are awash in 30-second spots as the ad war rages. WP's The Fix says Obama spent $32 million on television time in 17 battleground states between October 7 and 13. McCain spent $10 million during that time, while the RNC invested $6 million. Now for the shocker: Politico reports that, in the first three weeks of September, the Obama campaign aired 1,342 TV commercials in the Washington media market, which includes the heavily-contested regions of Northern Virginia. In the same period and market, John McCain aired eight commercials.

-- Sean Bowditch

10:57 AM ET | 10-15-2008 | permalink

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