Polls A-Go-Go

As we are fond of reminding you, national poll top-lines are not that useful in determining what will happen on election day. Polls in battleground states, on the other hand, can be very instructive. Which is why today's Quinnipiac numbers are getting so much attention.

The polls were taken in the crucial (and electoral vote-rich) battlegrounds of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and Quinnipiac divided the data into pre- and post-debate sections. In all three states, Barack Obama gained ground over John McCain after Friday's debate at Ole Miss -- a meeting that many pundits considered a draw. Here are the numbers:

FLORIDA:
Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate

OHIO:
Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate

PENNSYLVANIA:
Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate

For the sake of comparison, here are the 2004 stats:

FL: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%
OH: Bush 50%, Kerry 48%
PA: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%

Obama's gains (except in Pennsylvania) are very slim, but the fact that they occur across the board does suggest a trend. The internal breakdowns suggest that voters' economic concerns are driving some of those numbers -- Obama's polling edge handling the economy grew after the debate in all three states. It's also possible that the timing of the debate played a role. McCain's campaign suspension to help negotiate a bailout deal along with the increased media drumbeat about the economy may have contributed to the shifts too -- in other words, Obama may be experiencing a bit of a bounce because the economy is leading the news. (The McCain camp seems to agree with that theory, anyway -- they called the Q numbers "laughable".)

Also notable: the Q poll shows flagging favorability for Sarah Palin, whose popularity buoyed the McCain ticket after her August 29th selection.

A new national poll from Pew also shows a dip for Palin's favorability (as Joe Biden's numbers remained unchanged), and corroborates Quinnipiac's findings on Obama's economic advantage. Another area Obama shows movement, according to Pew: base consolidation. Putting to rest months of concerns over Democratic infighting after a rancorous primary, Obama now outpaces McCain in support from his own party with 70% of Democrats citing strong support, compared to his opponent's 55% of Republicans.

Obama holds a 7-point overall lead in the Pew poll after running nearly even with McCain in the two previous Pew surveys. Maybe those recent WP/ABC numbers weren't such outliers after all? Though, at the risk of beating this to death: national polls...not super-indicative of election day outcomes.

One other interesting piece of pollery from today: an NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll that says voters that didn't vote in 2004 (so they're newly registered or just didn't bother last time) prefer Obama by a two-to-one margin over McCain. In other words, turning out those less-likely voters will be paramount for the Democrats.

-- Evie Stone

2:17 PM ET | 10- 1-2008 | permalink

comments | | e-mail