McCain's Closing Argument

A bit of the past, a bit of the future, and a little dig at "hope" that's reminiscent of a primary-vintage Hillary Clinton line.

-- Evie Stone

3:12 PM ET | 10-31-2008 | permalink

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Palin: Once Popular, Now Polarizing

Even as Sarah Palin's star continues to rise among conservatives, her overall favorability ratings are dropping. The Obama campaign, counting on Palin to be a polarizing figure, uses footage of her VP debate wink to whack McCain's "judgment" in a negative ad that's mostly about the economy.

-- Evie Stone

2:48 PM ET | 10-29-2008 | permalink

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Independent Ad Raises Rev. Wright

The National Republican Trust PAC goes where McCain has said he won't: Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The National Republican Trust was also behind a recent spot linking Obama's support for giving drivers licenses to undocumented immigrants to the 9/11 Terrorist attacks. The Secret Money Project's Will Evans looked into the group:

The PAC was formed last month by a former Defense Department strategist, a freelance journalist and a lawyer who have tried to prove a link between Saddam Hussein and the Sept. 11 attacks.

The National Republican Trust's executive director is Scott Wheeler, who has written for the conservative Cybercast News Service and Insight magazine, published by Rev. Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church. His articles include "Iraq-al-Qaida link revealed," "'Dirty-bomb' plot underway in U.S.?" and "Exclusive: Saddam Possessed WMD, Had Extensive Terror Ties."

Despite being a huge story during the primaries, Rev. Wright has only appeared in a scattering of general-election ads, all of them independently funded. McCain has argued against using the Wright footage, and urged the North Carolina GOP to discontinue airing a Wright ad back in April. But many in the McCain camp -- including his running-mate Sarah Palin -- think reviving the Wright storyline could help McCain close the deal. Evidently the National Republican Trust agrees.

-- Evie Stone

3:20 PM ET | 10-27-2008 | permalink

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Doug Wormington For President

A Hawaiian man in an earthworm costume goes on the air with a campaign ad of sorts. "Doug Wormington" declared himself the Earth Party nominee for President last week. According to CMAG, this spot is airing on Honolulu's ABC affiliate, KITV.

A little bit of bio from Wormington's campaign website:

With no money for food, he was forced to eat the garbage and food scraps that fell into the dumpster. It was during this darkest point in his life that Wormington was struck with an epiphany: that he, a lowly worm, had the power to turn waste into nutrient-rich vermacast.

A truly presidential skill. The site says that Wormington's memoir, "Worm Wisdom," will be published soon.

-- Evie Stone

5:19 PM ET | 10-22-2008 | permalink

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Afternoon Joe

Four women claim to be Joe the Plumber in this new McCain ad hitting Obama on his recent "spread the wealth" comments to Ohio plumber Joe Wurzelbacher.

The McCain camp has continued to flog the Joe storyline and its attendant suggestion that Obama is trying to promote Socialism.

FWIW, Obama's tax plan.

Encyclopedia Britannica article on Socialism.

Decide for yourself, Comrade.

-- Evie Stone

12:15 PM ET | 10-22-2008 | permalink

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You Rarely See Such Powerful Political Advertising...

h/t Marc Ambinder

-- Sean Bowditch

5:23 PM ET | 10-16-2008 | permalink

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The Final Word On Negative Ads... For Now

Maybe now last night's brouhaha over negative ads can perhaps be settled.

Obama and McCain traded shots on negativity in the debate. Here's Obama: "One hundred percent, John, of your ads, 100 percent of them have been negative." And here's McCain: "So the fact is that Senator Obama is spending unprecedented -- unprecedented in the history of American politics, going back to the beginning -- amounts of money in negative attack ads on me."

Neither is precisely right. But according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which crunched the data behind the charges from both candidates, they're both half-right.

Bear with me here.

The project, which operates out of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, puts ads into three categories: positive, negative and contrast -- that is, a mix of one candidate's virtues and the other candidate's evil ways.

So, it's true that 100 percent of McCain's ads had "significant negative content" during the week of Sept. 28-Oct. 4. Obama apparently got that from a press release put out by the project last week. He blew it last night by making it a blanket statement covering the whole campaign. (During the week in question, by the way, some of McCain's ads included some positive statements. And Obama's ads were 34 percent negative.)

More data-slicing after the jump...

Continue reading "The Final Word On Negative Ads... For Now" »

2:28 PM ET | 10-16-2008 | permalink

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Obama, SEIU Remind McCain Who George Bush Is

McCain's move away from President Bush last night (read my earlier post "George Bush? Who's He?" here) is an obvious target for the Obama campaign and its allies. And who are they to pass it up?

Here's an ad, using McCain's "I'm not President Bush" line from the debate. It's a little raggedy -- you'll hear the audio upcut at the end -- but the campaign says it's ready to go.

But is this ad really going on the air? Obama's people haven't said. Instead, the campaign -- the best-financed presidential operation in history -- asks donors to kick in a few bucks to help put the ad on the air.

All year, McCain's connections to President Bush have been fodder for liberal independent groups. Now the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) posts this new ad online. The basic message: McCain's even worse.

Not exactly a shocker of a message from the SEIU, which has pumped millions of dollars and thousands of hours of work into this election.

-- Peter Overby

11:57 AM ET | 10-16-2008 | permalink

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George Bush? Who's He?

John McCain turned to Barack Obama in mid-debate last night and announced, "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago." And early this morning, the McCain-Palin campaign launched a new TV spot that puts more daylight between McCain and the president he formerly (and repeatedly in Democratic ads) embraced.

"Fight" opens with McCain saying, "The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they? I'll make the next four better." And yes, the candidate looks a lot better in the ad than he does in the freeze frame below.

McCain speaks to the camera for the entire 60-second, single-shot ad -- even the "I'm John McCain" disclaimer at the end.

But whatever he says about the past eight years and the need to fix things, the name of George Bush doesn't pass his lips.

-- Peter Overby

10:21 AM ET | 10-16-2008 | permalink

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Campaign Ads: Things Just Got (Un)Real

Look twice: this isn't a real billboard. This is a screen-grab from the XBox 360 game Burnout Paradise.

Courtesy of 360 Gamer "Jeffson"

It's common knowledge that Obama has outspent McCain on the advertising front -- in radio, tv, print and, it would seem, in video games, too. The folks over at GigaOm.com report on a conspicuous digital billboard in the game Burnout Paradise:

"I can confirm that the Obama campaign has paid for in-game advertising in Burnout," Holly Rockwood, director of corporate communications at Electronic Arts, the game's publisher, told me via email, noting that EA regularly allows ad placements in their online games. "Like most television, radio and print outlets, we accept advertising from credible political candidates," she continued. "Like political spots on the television networks, these ads do not reflect the political policies of EA or the opinions of its development teams."

So much for video game escapism. Ben Smith over at Politico points to even more examples.

Other bits of reality yet to be introduced to the video-game world: high gas prices, 700-billion dollar bailouts of the virtual world's biggest financial institutions, and increasing numbers of unemployed avatars.

(h/t TPM)

-- Thomas Pierce

UPDATE: This reminds me of John McCain's foray into the world of video games earlier this year. Remember his Space Invaders-inspired Pork Invaders? The game was created to reinforce McCain's fight against wasteful spending. For me, it was more of a time-machine to the mall arcade of my youth.

12:26 PM ET | 10-14-2008 | permalink

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Quick-Turnaround Adifying

Before the sun was up in Chicago (or DC) this morning, the Obama campaign had already emailed reporters this ad (slated to air on "national cable" per the campaign). It uses footage from last night's debate of the VP candidates sparring on McCain's health care plan.

NPR's very own Julie Rovner fact-checked that Biden claim for us last night and found it to be only true-ish:

McCain's plan WOULD tax the value of health benefits -- but for most people, the tax credit would offset that tax increase. The 20 million is the number of people who would be dropped by their employers according to a critique of the plan published in the policy journal Health Affairs.

You can listen to Julie's assessments of the candidates' health care plans, which aired earlier this week on Morning Edition, here and here. Highly recommended listening...no one knows this stuff better than J. Ro.

-- Evie Stone

UPDATE: The McCain-Palin campaign has released their own debate clip-tacular. It's a web video entitled "Lies and Sighs"

11:46 AM ET | 10- 3-2008 | permalink

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McCain's Mixed Messages on Immigration

This campaign season, Republican presidential candidate John McCain has revised, recanted and then revived his longtime support for comprehensive immigration reform. Now, critics say he's cynically putting out one message in English, and another in an intensifying Spanish ad campaign.

"It's disturbing to me, as a Hispanic, to have someone who feels he can blatantly deceive and think people won't pay attention," says Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs at NDN, a pro-Democrat research group.

For several weeks, McCain and Democratic candidate Barack Obama have had a tit-for-tat air war en espanol over last year's Senate bill to overhaul immigration. Each campaign has been accused of making misleading statements in the ads, but McCain's clear, implied message to Latinos is that he -- and only he -- supports a large-scale legalization.

Here's McCain's latest salvo:

Last weekend, though, McCain issued a contradictory message -- in English. It came after Obama campaigned in North Carolina, a state where a fast-growing Hispanic population has made immigration a red-hot issue. Obama repeated his support for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers, and for allowing undocumented students to have in-state tuition at public colleges.

Barack Obama gave this interview on NPR member-station WUNC.

The McCain campaign was quick to respond. In a statement, it said Senator McCain does not support "amnesty" or in-state tuition. (Again, this was in contrast to the Senator's actual record. In past years he -- like Obama -- has co-sponsored the DREAM act, which would allow immigrant students without legal status to pay in-state tuition.)

Critics say McCain has also been sending different messages depending on which part of the country he's in, speaking more moderately about immigration in the Hispanic-heavy southwest, while taking a harder line in the southeast, where opposition to illegal immigration runs strong. Obama, by contrast, has consistently supported a comprehensive approach, even if he hasn't pushed the topic much on the campaign trail.

Polls show Latinos overwhelmingly support Obama, a significant shift since 40% of the Hispanic electorate voted for President Bush in 2004. Analysts believe the large Hispanic vote in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida could be decisive in those swing states.

--Jennifer Ludden

4:37 PM ET | 10- 2-2008 | permalink

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Off-the-Cuff but On The Record

Sunday, on ABC's "This Week," John McCain was asked about an unscripted (but videotaped) comment Sarah Palin made while shaking hands with supporters. He said the comment, in which Palin seemed to support Barack Obama's position towards bombing terrorist targets in Pakistan, shouldn't be taken too seriously:

All this business of, in all due respect, people going around, sticking a microphone while conversations are being held, and all of a sudden, that's a person's position, it's a free country, but I don't think most Americans think that's a definitive policy statement.

Of course, that hasn't stopped the McCain campaign of making political hay over a similar, unscripted rope line comment from Joe Biden. The Democratic vice presidential hopeful told an environmentalist in Maumee, Ohio earlier this month that he wasn't supporting "clean coal," even though the Obama campaign is on record in favor of clean coal.

Here's the latest attack ad from McCain -- this one is tailored to run in Colorado, but there are also versions of the ad running in other coal-rich battleground states including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

As we noted last week, the Obama campaign does support investment in clean coal technology, as part of its ten-year, $150 billion dollar initiative to develop clean energy of all kinds. (McCain proposes $2 billion per year in federal subsidies for clean coal, plus more limited funding for "basic research" on wind, tide, and solar energy.) "The Obama-Biden Department of Energy is committed to developing five 'first-of-a-kind' commercial scale coal-fired plants with carbon capture and sequestration here in the United States," says Biden spokesman David Wade.

Coal generates a lot of political heat because it supplies more than half the nation's electricity and is a significant contributor of greenhouse gases -- and because five of the leading coal-producing states (Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Ohio) are battlegrounds in the November election.

-- Scott Horsley

2:18 PM ET | 09-29-2008 | permalink

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New Ad Opens a Can of Worms

After putting an ad out last night that targeted Obama's connection to former Fannie Mae CEO, Franklin Raines, (a connection denied by both Obama and Raines), McCain has upped the ante this morning with another, similar ad. This one links Obama to Jim Johnson, the one-time Fannie Mae exec who was tapped to lead Obama's VP search team.

"Fannie cooked the books and Johnson made millions," the ad says before connecting him to Obama.

Not long after Obama picked Johnson back in June, media reports began surfacing that Johnson had ties to mortgages lender Countrywide. Team Obama defended Johnson for days -- until he resigned from the committee, supposedly of his volition.

But as The Trail points out, this may be a can of worms McCain shouldn't open:

...McCain is playing with fire, because his campaign also has deep ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, was president of the Homeownership Alliance, which advocates the expansion of homeownership through low-interest mortgages funded by Fannie and Freddie. Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr., who headed McCain's vice presidential vetting panel, was a lobbyist for Fannie Mae. Mark Buse, a longtime McCain aide, lobbied for Freddie Mac before returning to McCain's Senate staff.

Both teams have ties to former executives and lobbyists, and it's a little bewildering that either side would be willing to venture onto such shaky ground.

-- Thomas Pierce

11:05 AM ET | 09-19-2008 | permalink

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Campaigns Spend $15 Million on Post-Convention Ads, Mainly in Battlegrounds

New numbers out today from the Wisconsin Advertising Project and CMAG reveal that the candidates spent $15 million dollars on television ad buys in the week after the Republican National Convention, with the two candidates spending roughly equal amounts during that period. The report also says the Obama campaign paid for nearly all (97%) of its advertising itself, while a majority of McCain's ads (57%) were paid for in conjunction with the Republican National Committee.

Not surprisingly, the top 10 battleground states from 2004 pulled the most ad spending during the period -- though McCain focused more of his resources on those battlegrounds than Obama did (58% of total ad spending to Obama's 46%). The Obama campaign has expanded their efforts to expand the Democrats' electoral possibilities to include Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, and a few other states won by George Bush in the last two elections.

The study also provides this interesting nugget:

In line with the expectations of most observers, the campaign has turned more negative since the conclusion of the Republican Convention. In the first week of advertising after the conventions, Obama aired a higher percentage of negative ads than did McCain. 56 percent of the McCain campaign ads were negative, while 77 percent of Obama's ads were negative.

If that seems like a surprising statistic, it's partially because McCain's negative ads have gotten a great deal more attention in the media than Obama's. That owes primarily to the McCain camp's repeated use of debunked claims. The number also has something to do with the project's definition of a negative ad: "any ad where the candidate's opponent was mentioned." In other words, a spot that spends 27 seconds on how great Candidate A is and 3 seconds on what a jerk Candidate B is would be categorized the same way as an ad that spends its entirety bashing Candidate B. So while these stats tell us what percentage of each candidate's ads mentioned the opposition, there's no gradation available as to how negative each campaign's ads were.

But there's another issue at hand as well: as we (and others) have noted, the Obama campaign has a sneaky tendency to release negative advertisements without telling the press. So there are lots of ads that air in local markets that we here in DC never find out about, and therefore don't cover. (That's where you come in, swing-state readers! Tips are always welcome here.)

At the same time, as Politico's Jonathan Martin writes today, both campaigns also create ads that air on TV very little, if at all -- and in fact are more like glorified press releases that rely on the media for circulation.

-- Evie Stone

12:04 PM ET | 09-17-2008 | permalink

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McCain Talks Tough On Economy, Dems Keep Up Attacks

John McCain, on offense to prove he's taking the economic meltdown seriously after yesterday's misfire, released a new ad this afternoon that uses the word "crisis" three times in 30 seconds. In it, McCain promises to tackle the situation "head on" and to protect Americans' jobs and savings. A female voiceover adds that McCain will bring "experience and leadership in a time of crisis". (And here we thought "experience" was SO August 28th...)

But the Democrats are not going to let McCain retake control of his economic narrative that easily. Four minutes after that ad hit my inbox, I received a video from the DNC montaging 10 instances from this year of McCain saying some version of "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" (the most recent example, of course, was from yesterday), along with quotes from McCain advisers downplaying the country's economic problems.

-- Evie Stone

5:24 PM ET | 09-16-2008 | permalink

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Obama Ad Accuses McCain of Dirty Tactics

The Obama campaign continues its aggression-heightening with a new ad called "Honor" that trashes McCain's recent tactics.

The quotes used here with news organization citations are mostly from liberal op-ed columnists and bloggers (and one WP editorial), not from news reports -- a trick the McCain campaign has used in some of the very ads this ad is criticizing...

-- Evie Stone

10:29 AM ET | 09-15-2008 | permalink

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Flip, Flop, Flip?

For months, John McCain has been renouncing his earlier legislation for comprehensive immigration reform, and -- like his opponent Barack Obama -- generally avoiding the hot-button topic on the campaign trail. Now, McCain has two new videos aimed at Hispanic and other immigrant voters.

The first is a Spanish-language TV ad that claims that it was really Democrats, including Obama, who sabotaged last year's bipartisan immigration overhaul by voting for 'poison pill' amendments. Immigrant advocates say the McCain ad is misleading; yes, the convoluted bill was drawing fire from the left by the bitter end, but they blame overwhelming Republican opposition for its demise.

The second video will air during tonight's Alma Awards broadcast. The video starts with a gauzy montage of black and white photos of earlier immigrants, and laments that they are too often "objects of fear" instead of "symbols of hope." While giving no details, McCain says he will make immigration a "priority" by addressing it in a way that's "practical and fair."

Why the switch? It's hard to see these ads as much more than grasping at straws given the dismal standing polls give McCain among Latino voters.

On the other hand, maybe 'immigration' isn't quite the dirty word it's been thought to be in politics. NDN (formerly the New Democrat Network) just came out with a poll of voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, all with large -- though varied -- Latino populations. It finds solid support for a 'path to citizenship' for undocumented immigrants, something you'd never guess from hearing most stump speeches over the past year.

-- Jennifer Ludden

5:40 PM ET | 09-12-2008 | permalink

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My, What Big Ads You Have

The McCain campaign released a new ad this morning called "Fact Check". It's based, in part, on a WSJ piece that said an army of opposition-researching Democrats has descended on Alaska to dig up dirt on Sarah Palin. As we wrote yesterday, the DNC's research chief has unequivocally denied the air-drop to Marc Ambinder. Today, Democratic Party officials in Alaska offered similar denials to TPMmuckraker. The ad also seems to conflate the Obama campaign's criticisms of Palin with the false internet rumors about her that factcheck.org recently investigated.

(Incidentally, if those wolves seem hauntingly familiar, it may be because a similar pack menaced us courtesy of Bush/Cheney back in 2004 -- though back in those days they were allegorical terrorists.)

Continue reading "My, What Big Ads You Have" »

2:42 PM ET | 09-10-2008 | permalink

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Obama's 'Maverick' Ad Riposte

The Obama campaign responds to "Original Mavericks":

On the lobbyist question, it should be noted that both campaigns have strict policies regarding active lobbying work. (And also that lobbyists on the whole aren't really the sinister bogeymen these guys sometimes make them out to be.) And don't forget that the Obama campaign has its own lobbyist ties, so it's a little disingenuous to go after McCain on that front. But the familiar 90% statistic and the bite-back on the McCain camp's Bridge to Nowhere claim are both factually legit.

Perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of this ad is the fact that Sarah Palin is in it at all. It seems as if the Obama folks must be taking the GOP base's enthusiasm for her pretty seriously. That can be read in one of two ways: one is that it's evidence of a lesson learned from the Kerry campaign's failure in 2004 -- that you can't let the opposition's distortions slide because people might just believe them. The other is that it reveals the Obama camp is really worried about Palin, maybe even more so after McCain's post-convention polling bounce.

An open question: if the news cycle continues to be a referendum on the GOP VP nominee, which campaign does it help?

-- Evie Stone

5:40 PM ET | 09- 8-2008 | permalink

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A Couple of Originals

This morning the McCain campaign released an ad called "Original Mavericks" (as an aside, can two different people really both be the "original" at something, 30 years apart?) highlighting, as the release puts it, the ways that "John McCain and Governor Palin have used their careers to bring change."

CBS (among others) points out that the article this ad cites when it says Palin "stopped the bridge to nowhere" doesn't actually say that she stopped the bridge to nowhere. It describes Palin's reform efforts, but what it actually says about the bridge project is that she asked her administration to "seek fewer congressional earmarks after Alaska's 'bridge to nowhere' became a national symbol of pork barrel spending." In fact, it's been widely reported that she had supported the funding request during her gubernatorial campaign. And as NPR's own Peter Overby reported last week, Palin did officially cancel the bridge project, but she still took the federal money -- and has used it on other transportation projects in Alaska.

Those pesky facts haven't stopped the McCain campaign, a parade of convention speakers, and Palin herself from repeating the claim that she opposed the bridge earmark. Similarly, the campaign has repeatedly misrepresented Barack Obama's tax plans for the middle-class, and his stance on Iran, despite a smorgasboard of fact-checking evidence to the contrary. Don't get us wrong -- we appreciate that spin is part of the game both teams are playing. But these repeated distortions seem awfully...brazen.

-- Evie Stone

1:32 PM ET | 09- 8-2008 | permalink

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McCain Ad Pushes Palin's Maverick Cred

The McCain camp has released contrast spot called "Alaska Maverick." The ad compares Sarah Palin to Barack Obama, concluding that she's got a better record on change than the Democratic nominee.

While it's true that Palin has a reputation for bi-partisanship and reform, the ad is chock-a-block with questionable whacks at Obama. It quotes the Wall Street Journal -- but actually refers to a column from the WSJ's conservative Op-Ed page. It cites the much-debated National Journal rankings that call Obama the "most liberal Senator" -- based on a limited number of 2007 votes, many of which Obama missed while on the campaign trail. And it says Obama "gave big oil billions in subsidies and giveaways." Translation: he voted for the flawed 2005 energy bill (as did a majority of Senate Dems). According to factcheck.org, the tax breaks in that bill largely served to subsidize research for alternatives, and the Congressional Research Service says at the end of the day the bill resulted in a net tax increase for oil companies.

The release says the ad will air in "key states" -- though, as we've written before, many of McCain's negative spots get most of their views via media coverage.

-- Evie Stone

2:10 PM ET | 09- 3-2008 | permalink

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Business As Usual, Part 2

McCain and the RNC have a new contrast spot of their own, revisiting their now-familiar themes that Obama is famous and will tax you to a fare-thee-well.

This ad ups the ante with ominous photos of Democratic Senators (and, if you believe the voice-over, fiendish tax-raisers) Chris Dodd, Pat Leahy, Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid, and...Byron Dorgan?

As Jonathan Martin points out, the GOP's usual liberal symbols Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton are off the table this year (Kennedy because he's a sympathetic figure due to his battle with cancer; HRC because the McCain camp hopes to pick off her supporters). NPR's Ken Rudin adds that some other prominent female Dems (California's Barbara Boxer, for example) are also absent from the ad, maybe because of the McCain campaign's efforts to appeal to women.

But, we must say, these comparisons don't pack nearly the same punch as the McCain-Bush link the Dems are using. Does America even know who Byron Dorgan is, much less fear his tax policies? (D-ND, for those of you who are wondering. No, not that one. You're thinking of Kent Conrad.)

-- Evie Stone

4:00 PM ET | 09- 2-2008 | permalink

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Business as Usual

With Gustav petering out over the ArkLaTex, our brief hiatus from political crossfire is officially over.

The Obama campaign jumped back into the fray today with this ad called "Same," hammering home their convention talking point that John McCain and George W. Bush are -- you guessed it! -- the same.

This time we get the Dems' favorite statistic (that McCain has voted with Bush more than 90% of the time) straight from McCain, in the form of a TV interview clip in which he's bragging about his GOP bona fides. It's an effective use of tape -- that stat packs more punch coming from the horse's mouth than it did last week from a raft of Democratic surrogates.

-- Evie Stone

1:49 PM ET | 09- 2-2008 | permalink

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Who Concocts These Attack Ads, Anyway?

Always a good question in an election year, and over at the Secret Money Project, our colleague Will Evans traces the couldn't-make-it-up origins of one such ad: the Coalition Against Anti-Christian Rhetoric's spot from last June.

With its suggestions that Obama was a closet Muslim, it was the first truly inflammatory ad of the '08 campaign.

But it wasn't cooked up by high-priced DC consultants. The ad went on the air -- and into the blogosphere -- thanks to a hypnotherapist, a wedding videographer, a felonious fugitive... and an inattentive employee at a TV station.

Will uncovers it all, from missing money to disappearing devil horns. His tale of Weird Politics is here.

-- Peter Overby

12:26 PM ET | 08-28-2008 | permalink

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"Tiny" Follow-up

There's been some blow-back in the last few hours over McCain's new ad -- and not just from the Obama campaign. In addition to the lingering issue that Evie blogged about yesterday, some are claiming that McCain twisted Obama's comments on Iran, specifically his use of the word "tiny" to describe the Middle Eastern country. Here's the quote in question, taken from a speech Obama gave in Pendleton, OR on May 18, 2008:

Strong countries and strong Presidents talk to their adversaries. That's what Kennedy did with Khrushchev. That's what Reagan did with Gorbachev. That's what Nixon did with Mao. I mean think about it. Iran, Cuba, Venezuela -- these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying we're going to wipe you off the planet. And ultimately that direct engagement led to a series of measures that helped prevent nuclear war, and over time allowed the kind of opening that brought down the Berlin Wall. Now, that has to be the kind of approach that we take. You know, Iran, they spend one-one hundredth of what we spend on the military. If Iran ever tried to pose a serio us threat to us, they wouldn't stand a chance. And we should use that position of strength that we have to be bold enough to go ahead and listen. That doesn't mean we agree with them on everything. We might not compromise on any issues, but at least we should find out other areas of potential common interest, and we can reduce some of the tensions that has caused us so many problems around the world.

Seems like the ad fails to consider the larger context of the comment. Jake Tapper of ABC's Politcal Punch uses stronger words, saying the ad "crosses a new line into dishonesty". The website TalkingPointsMemo also weighed in: "The new McCain ad ... rips Obama's words out of context so egregiously that it amounts to a distortion at best and an outright smear at worst."

Then came this from the Obama campaign, c/o spokesman Hari Sevugan:

John McCain is distorting Barack Obama's words to cover up for the fact that it's the failed Bush-McCain approach to foreign policy and the Bush-McCain war in Iraq that that have strengthened Iran and endangered Israel. While Barack Obama recognizes that Iran has been the biggest beneficiary of the war in Iraq and that the Bush-McCain fear of tough diplomacy has allowed Iran to spin 3800 centrifuges, threaten Israel, and fund terrorism, John McCain promises more of the same. If John McCain was serious about dealing with the threat from Iran, he would join Barack Obama's bipartisan effort in the Senate to step up sanctions on Iran instead of adopting the same tired, old Bush-Rove playbook.

Your turn... Was McCain out-of-bounds on this one? Or is Obama's Iran policy misguided? Or is it a bit of both?

-- Sean Bowditch

11:45 AM ET | 08-27-2008 | permalink

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"Tiny"

McCain hit the airwaves today with another ad, this time attacking Obama's Iran policy. The timing is key as the Democrats here in Denver -- headlined by Veep nominee Sen. Joe Biden -- prepare to spend the day discussing national security and foreign policy. The ad accuses Obama of misunderstanding and underestimating Iran's intentions in the Middle East.

McCain has used this line of attack repeatedly on the campaign trail: portraying Obama as dangerously unprepared and naive. It's clearly been effective among certain sectors of the population. As the new Quinnipiac poll indicates, many voters favor McCain -- often by wide margins -- when it comes to handling conflict, natural disasters, and bristly foreign relations. Hard to say at this early stage whether Biden's presence on the Democratic ticket will change that opinion.

-- Sean Bowditch

8:50 AM ET | 08-27-2008 | permalink

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McCain's HRC Ads Mainly Air In News Coverage

The Obama campaign is circulating this WSJ report that John McCain's recent ads invoking Hillary Clinton have gotten very little actual airtime as paid advertisements:

In the press releases accompanying each new ad, the McCain team pledges to air them in "key states." But don't expect to see many show up in battleground state living rooms. According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which monitors political advertising across the country, only one of the three Clinton-themed ads has been broadcast so far --- and that ad, featuring a Clinton delegate who now endorses McCain, is only airing in Toledo, Ohio.

Which is not to say the ads aren't being watched. You, gentle reader, have seem them, in our postings and on other blogs and probably on cable TV as well. CMAG's Evan Tracey tells the WSJ they're akin to "video press releases."

So, are the media suckers, or is the McCain camp just taking clever advantage of the system? (Or both?) Remember that Obama and his supporters have made effective use of viral videos as well, with a big boost from blogs and the MSM. Ads, too. So are the campaigns playing the media or just using the tools at hand to effectively capture our attention?

-- Evie Stone

6:39 PM ET | 08-26-2008 | permalink

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The "3AM" Redux: Obama Camp Responds

Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor on McCain's new ad:

If John McCain wants to quote Hillary Clinton's 3 AM ads, he should go right ahead, because Senator Clinton made it clear that it's John McCain who isn't ready to be President. Hillary Clinton was right: John McCain has no plan to protect our homes or create jobs, and that spells even more pain for American families. Barack Obama will give middle class families a tax cut and an emergency energy rebate, and he'll invest in a green energy economy to create jobs and break our dependence on foreign oil. John McCain won't.

-- Sean Bowditch

3:30 PM ET | 08-26-2008 | permalink

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The "3AM" Redux

"It's 3am... Your children are safe and asleep... Who do you want answering the phone?"

Hmmm. Sounds familiar...

It's back! A new McCain ad uses footage from Clinton's famous "3AM" ad she rolled out during the primaries to challenge Obama's national security credentials. It also features a clip of Clinton pointing to the "lifetime of experience" McCain "will bring to the White House".

The timing of the ad is strategic: Hillary Clinton is set to deliver a much-anticipated speech tonight at the Convention in Denver. The ad seems to up the ante for Clinton. She's under increasing pressure to bring her supporters into the Obama fold and to voice a strongly unifying, Obama-focused message tonight. Will this ad provide additional motivation?

As for McCain, his strategy is not without its risks. The ad could very well win him a few votes among discontented Clinton supporters, especially women. But the link could also backfire. A new ABC News poll suggests that, among all registered voters, Clinton's favorability rating is on the decline. It's especially weak at the political center. Among independents, only 41 percent rate Clinton favorably compared with Obama's 59 percent rating.

-- Sean Bowditch

9:52 AM ET | 08-26-2008 | permalink

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Hit Parade

A new musical effort from the Obama campaign rewrites the Sam Cooke classic "Don't Know Much" to ding McCain on economic issues and link him to President Bush. Visuals include now-familiar shots of Bush and McCain acting chummy.

-- Evie Stone

2:26 PM ET | 08-25-2008 | permalink

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Another McCain Ad Targets Clinton Supporters

The McCain campaign has released this new ad, featuring a former Hillary Clinton supporter saying she now supports McCain because "now he's the one with experience and judgment." The ad does not mention Barack Obama by name.

It's the third McCain ad in as many days, and the second that directly targets former Clinton voters. McCain has reason to see an opening with the Clintonites, given this data from a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll:

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

The RNC is working the Hillary angle as well, with plans in the works for a Clinton supporters' happy hour in Denver tonight.

Clinton herself has disavowed the ads, telling a breakfast for the New York delegation in Denver this morning "I am Hillary Clinton, and I do not approve of that message."

Nonethless, one surefire way for McCain to break through the media noise surrounding the Democratic convention is with buzzworthy ads that will be played over and over on the news networks. These Hillary spots fit that description.

And don't forget that McCain has to burn through a pile of money before his public financing kicks in after next week's GOP convention. So there's no reason not to go for broke with the advertising now.

The Obama camp's task: to convince those disaffected Clinton supporters that a protest vote for McCain runs counter to their principles -- especially targeting those who feel Clinton was treated unfairly because she's a woman. Look for the keyword 'Supreme Court'. Newly minted VP candidate Joe Biden will be a natural for that job, given his former Judiciary Committee Chairmanship and strong record on women's issues.

-- Evie Stone

12:45 PM ET | 08-25-2008 | permalink

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McCain: Hey Ladies!

The McCain camp has released a new ad -- on the eve of the Democratic National Convention -- questioning why Obama didn't ask New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to be his running mate. Titled "Passed Over," the ad says that Clinton was dropped as a possible VP candidate because she "spoke the truth" about Obama's plans and attacks, calling them vague and negative. As NPR's Nancy Solomon reported in June, McCain has been wooing ex-Clinton supporters since Clinton left the race.

"Passed Over" takes a similar approach to McCain's ad from yesterday featuring Biden. Both ads use clips of former Obama challengers (now supporters) to emphasis the McCain camp messages that Obama is inexperienced.

UPDATE: Clinton's Spokeswoman Kathleen Strand provided the following response hours after the McCain camp released "Passed Over":

"Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is clear. She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

-- Nancy Cook/Michael Olson

1:30 PM ET | 08-24-2008 | permalink

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Obama Camp Quickly Capitalizes on McCain House Gaffe

The short national nightmare is over. We now know definitively how many houses (including condos -- apparently they're confusing) the McCains own. The DNC has helpfully circulated Politifact's finding that the magic number is seven.

But despite the quick resolution, we surely haven't seen the last of this gaffe. Stay tuned for more crowing Dem press releases, snide surrogate comments, and negative ads like this one the Obama campaign's freakishly speedy team has already put together:

Recent polls, including the ones we wrote about this morning, show McCain trailing Obama on economic issues. This misstep provides the Obama camp with an opportunity to widen the pocketbook gap -- and they're more than happy to take it.

-- Evie Stone

UPDATE: Brian Rogers of the McCain campaign counterpunches in a statement. It's an elitism-off!

Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate about houses? Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people "cling" to guns and religion in the face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who's in touch with regular Americans?

11:34 AM ET | 08-21-2008 | permalink

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Obama Ad Says McCain Gave Ralph Reed A Pass

Via the AJC, this Obama ad will debut tomorrow in the Atlanta market. The ad accuses McCain of going easy on Ralph Reed during the Senate's investigation into Jack Abramoff's Indian gaming scandal. Reed recently sent out an invitation to a McCain fundraiser...but after the AJC reported on his involvement in a widely-linked blog item, Reed did not attend the event.

This is an ideally-executed negative ad, in the sense that there's nothing in it that's technically inaccurate -- see the backgrounder after the jump -- but it points the viewer to a more damning conclusion than the evidence really supports: an implied quid pro quo between McCain and Reed. (The McCain camp's blustery response, skipping a point-by-point refutation of the ad in favor of a subject-changing William Ayers jab, reinforces that fact.) In other words, it's exactly what Democrats have been saying they want to see.

-- Evie Stone

Continue reading "Obama Ad Says McCain Gave Ralph Reed A Pass" »

4:38 PM ET | 08-20-2008 | permalink

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Christian Group Swipes at McCain's Marital History

On the eve of the candidates' joint appearance at Saddleback Church, a new ad has appeared from the pro-Obama Christian group The Matthew 25 Network. It's called "Families."

The ad features a range of pastors and theologians talking about Obama's commitment to family. The don't-miss quote:

Throughout his entire career, Senator Obama has stood by families...including his own.

Steve Waldman at Beliefnet wonders:

Might this be intended to poke John McCain for committing adultery in his first marriage? Seems that way to me.

Seems like it might. Pastor Kirbyjon Caldwell, an Obama supporter (and Bush friend -- he officiated Jenna's wedding in May), said this on a conference call with reporters this morning (via ABC news):

"His marital history has been duly recorded," said Caldwell, referring to McCain, "and as recently as yesterday I think it is, our pastor from Saddleback, Rick Warren indicated that he would not feel comfortable voting for an adulterer and I don't know exactly to whom he was referring but I think the data speaks for itself."

McCain's first marriage ended in 1980, and his relationship with now-wife Cindy McCain began before the divorce was final. McCain's first wife, Carol, has said she doesn't hold a grudge.

The veiled swipe would appear to be at odds with the group's stated philosphy. The name "Matthew 25" comes from the New Testament, Matthew 25:40, which reads:

'I tell you the truth, as you did it to one of the least of these my brothers, you did for me.'

-- Evie Stone

4:02 PM ET | 08-15-2008 | permalink

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Campaigns' Negative Tactics Diverge

The McCain campaign has released another negative ad going after Obama on taxes and his celebrity status. It's the fourth ad in just over two weeks that pairs the rockstar theme with the suggestion that an Obama presidency would threaten your family's financial security.

But as McCain milks the free publicity from its spate of negative advertising, First Read reports that the Obama campaign has been quietly running negative ads in battleground states.

Continue reading "Campaigns' Negative Tactics Diverge" »

12:14 PM ET | 08-15-2008 | permalink

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Obama's New Olympic Ad

The Obama campaign has released a new economy-focused ad called "Three Bedroom Ranch" to air during the Olympics. It's a positive spot, focusing on job creation and tax cuts.

Obama's first Olympic spot talked about his energy plan.

Contrastingly, McCain's Olympic buy is a negative ad that hits Obama on taxes. We are not the first to note that it's a bit jarring to watch an attack spot during the unity-and-fellowship-fest of the Games and their attendant inspirational advertising. Negative ads tend to be more memorable than positive ones, and the Olympics is a huge audience, but McCain is taking the risk of looking like a sourpuss.

On a side note: for those of you playing the "that same stock footage of windmills" drinking game: SHOT!

-- Evie Stone

11:03 AM ET | 08-14-2008 | permalink

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Obama Ad Links Iraq War to US Economic Slump

In a new ad called "Book" the Obama camp hits McCain on ties to President Bush's economic policies, linking the costs of the Iraq war to US economic troubles and adding a dig about Iraq's oil-revenue surplus.

To put it less subtly, the message of this ad is as follows: Iraq is hoarding its huge oil profits while Americans fund the reconstruction efforts there and ruin our own economy in the process. Therefore, John McCain is destroying the US economy by supporting the Iraq war.

Let's put aside for now the question of what Iraq should be doing -- or is capable of doing at this point -- with that money, or whether they really have any control over global oil prices. (Or the fact that it's an important sign of progress that the Iraqi oil industry is back on its feet.) What about the suggested link between Iraq war costs and the faltering US economy? We asked NPR business correspondent Adam Davidson to weigh in. He said there's nothing outright wrong in the ad, but its juxtapositions are a bit misleading:

It's not incorrect to say the war has been a drag on us economic growth, but it's outweighed by many other factors. Oil prices, housing crisis, and the credit crunch are infinitely more significant...the Iraq war is a vanishingly minor character in the economic drama.

That doesn't mean voters won't make that connection anyway -- in a CNN poll earlier this year, 71% of respondents thought the war was hurting the economy. This ad is happy to nudge that perception along, in much the same way that McCain has embraced the fallacious link between Obama's stance on future offshore drilling and today's high gas prices.

On the upside, at least the ad isn't about famousness.

-- Evie Stone

1:27 PM ET | 08-13-2008 | permalink

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Obama Celeb Counterattack