FL-25 Competitors Tie Each Other To Bush

NPR's Greg Allen sent us these dueling mailers from Florida's 25th congressional district, where Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart and Democratic challenger Joe Garcia are each trying to link the other to President Bush.

 

 

South Florida's large Cuban-American population has provided a healthy boost to Republican candidates in the past; President Bush carried Florida's 25th by 12 points in 2004, garnering an estimated 78% of Cuban-American votes. But these mailers suggest that the President's brand has been damaged in south Florida as it has been in the rest of the country. As Greg reported on ATC yesterday, Democrats see an opening there for the first time in years.

-- Evie Stone

4:55 PM ET | 10-31-2008 | permalink

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FL-16 Stays Classy

Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), who won his House seat in 2006 in the wake of a sex scandal involving the then-Republican incumbent, is now embroiled in some sex drama of his own. According to ABC News, he paid his alleged former mistress Patricia Allen $121,000 in settlement money and legal fees after she threatened to sue him for harassment and intimidation. ABC also reports that Mahoney promised Allen a two-year gig at the agency that makes his campaign ads.

Yup, that's the same firm that made this ad from 2006...in which Mahoney told voters scandalized by the revelation that his predecessor, Mark Foley, had sent lewd messages to teenage boys serving as Congressional pages, that "every generation has the responsibility to turning over to the next generation an America that's more moral":

The CEO of the communications firm, Nashville-based Fletcher Rowley Chao Riddle Inc., says he was unaware of any deal with Allen and resigned from Mahoney's campaign yesterday.

Mahoney has not directly addressed the affair allegations, though he said today he takes "full responsibility" for his actions. He maintains that he didn't do anything illegal -- specifically, he denies paying Allen off using "campaign funds". Mahoney asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to call for a congressional ethics investigation, which she promptly did. He says the investigation will "vindicate" him. But Republicans say it's a stalling tactic to put off the matter until after the elections. In either case, the media coverage of the scandal gives Mahoney an even tougher battle as he struggles to hang onto his seat in a Republican-leaning district.

Also worth noting...this completes a Democratic sex scandal hat trick for 2008 (following l'affaires de Spitzer and Edwards). The most recent big GOP opprobrium was the Larry Craig foot-tapping incident of summer 2007 Rep. Vito Fossella's other-woman imbroglio from May. Is it us or do these things always seem cyclical by party? It's like the chart of fox and rabbit populations in high school biology class.

If this kind of story tickles your schadenfreude-bone (you sicko) you can check out PolitickerNJ's list of "America's Top 53 Political Sex Scandals". Or read our own Ken Rudin's Lewinsky-era look at "Congressional Sex Scandals in History"

-- Evie Stone

UPDATE: How could we forget Vito Fossella? H/t Ron Elving.

12:57 PM ET | 10-14-2008 | permalink

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Fishing With Don

Rep. Don Young (R-AK) squeaked out a primary win over Palin-backed Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. After absentee ballots were counted, Young came out ahead by 304 votes. But before the final tally, the 35-year House veteran praised Palin during Tuesday's House energy debate. McCain is opposed to drilling in ANWR. Palin is not. Palin is going to "keep working on" McCain on the ANWR issue. Young has hope that Palin can do it:

"I'm convinced with her great personability and knowledge, she'll be able to convince [McCain to go] the right way" (APRN)

Considering that the alternative candidate would be Obama (who needs no convincing in his opposition to ANWR), Young's comments aren't exactly a surprise.

A recount is expected in the Young-Parnell contest for Alaska's At-Large seat. This could provide more cover for Palin to avoid pressure to support Young, who like other Alaska pols have a reputation for bringing home the bacon. Of course, if she really wanted to shake things up and cross the aisle she could always endorse the Democratic nominee, former House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz.

This morning NPR's Ken Rudin updated his call on the race from "Tossup" to "Leans Democratic." Rudin's take:

The Republicans' best shot at holding onto the seat is if a recount showed Parnell the winner.

UPDATE: Parnell conceded.

-- Michael Olson

10:25 AM ET | 09-18-2008 | permalink

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The Count: Franken, Barry Win

Senate Updates:
MN SEN (GOP): Comedian and activist Al Franken defeated six opponents to win the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Minnesota. Franken faces incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman in November. Franken was designated as his party's candidate months ago, but the primary made it official.

NH SEN (GOP): Sen.John Sununu (R) and ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) breezed to victory in their primaries and continue their intensive rematch of 2002, which Sununu won by just four percentage points.

House Updates:
NH-01 (DEM): Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) narrowly won his party's nomination and set the stage for a rematch in November with Carol Shea-Porter (D), who ousted him in an upset two years ago.

NH-02 (DEM): Columnist and talk-show host Jennifer Horn (R) who won her party's nomination will face freshman Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes (D).

NY-10 (DEM): Ex-MTV "Real World" celeb Kevin Powell was handed an old school Brooklyn smack down by longtime Rep. Ed Towns. Towns was in a bit of a political pickle last year when he endorsed Clinton over Obama, but he still managed to beat Powell by a 2-1 margin.

NY-13 (GOP): Robert Straniere (R) will face Michael McMahon (D) for the seat being vacated by Republican incumbent Vito Fossella, whose political career came to a screeching end when, following his arrest for drunk driving in Virginia, it was revealed he had fathered a child with another woman. This was most probably a surprise to his own wife and children back on Staten Island, and it was enough to end any thoughts of running for re-election. Fossella is the only Republican member of Congress from New York City.

NY-26 (GOP): In what was a major upset -- and a stinging defeat for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- Alice Kryzan, an attorney, won a hotly contested three-way Democratic battle for her party's nomination for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Reynolds (R). The Dem establishment had put its money on Jon Powers, an Iraqi war veteran. Kryzan faces businessman Chris Lee (R) in November.

Marion Barry Watch:
Former DC Mayor Marion Barry held onto his Ward 8 city council seat.

-- Michael Olson

12:35 AM ET | 09-10-2008 | permalink

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Ain't No Party Like A Primary Party

Polls will close tonight in seven states and the District of Columbia. It's the largest one-day primary left before the general election. NPR's Ken Rudin and Vox Politics will be keeping tabs on the returns tonight.

We're watching:
MN SEN: Al Franken, the comedian and activist who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the Senate in Minnesota against six lesser-known rivals. The winner takes on Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in November.
NH SEN: Today's primary in New Hampshire is expected to set up a rematch between Republican Senator John Sununu and the person he defeated six years ago, former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen.
DE SEN: In Delaware, Democratic Senator Joe Biden is unopposed for renomination -- state law allows him to run for re-election and vice president at the same time.
New York, Wisconsin, Vermont and Rhode Island are also holding primaries today.
And in Washington, DC, former mayor Marion Barry is defending his city council seat against several fellow Democrats.

-- Michael Olson

5:47 PM ET | 09- 9-2008 | permalink

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Way Up Nort': I Feel Young Again

Today, all eyes, or some eyes, the ones that aren't hungover from the RNC Google party at The Walker Art Center, are gazing upon Alaska once again. Rep. Don Young (R-AK) is seeking his 18th term as Alaska's At-Large member of the U.S. House. He is in the fight of his political life. Young leads his Palin-backed challenger Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by a mere 151 votes after last week's GOP primary. State election officials have roughly 25k absentee and ballots under question that will be considered today. Young spokesman Mike Anderson told the Anchorage Daily News, "We're cautiously optimistic." Whoever wins will face Democrat Ethan Berkowitz.

-- Michael Olson

4:16 AM ET | 09- 5-2008 | permalink

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Cohen Hangs On In TN-9 Dem Primary

Freshman Rep. Steve Cohen prevailed by a wide margin in yesterday's closely-watched Democratic primary in Tennessee's Ninth District.

The campaign got ugly toward the end with two controversial ads from Cohen's challenger, lawyer Nikki Tinker. One of the ads showed images of Klansmen and denounced Rep. Cohen's vote not to remove the statue and remains of Confederate General and KKK founder Nathan Bedford Forrest from a Memphis park. The other ad raised eyebrows with a reference to the Jewish incumbent "praying in our churches." Tinker is African-American, and the 9th is a majority-black district.

Cohen held last-minute press conferences to condemn the ads. Tinker's mentor Harold Ford Jr., the DLC chairman who held the TN-9 seat until his unsuccessful 2006 run for US Senate, spoke out against them as well. And yesterday Barack Obama weighed in with a statement that did not mention either candidate by name but said "these incendiary and personal attacks have no place in our politics." Obama declined to endorse a candidate in the TN-9 primary.

Perhaps the strangest turn in the race came when a group of Armenian activists/Tinker supporters crashed a press conference at Cohen's house and the Congressman had to physically remove them. Cohen got on the group's bad side when he voted against a bill that would have labeled Turkey's treatment of Armenians during World War I genocide.

Despite the various dustups, in the end Cohen won in a landslide with 79% of the vote to Tinker's 19%. And the primary race that really turned out to be worth watching was on the opposite end of the state in the First District, where Rep. David Davis barely lost the Republican nomination to Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe. The defeat is noteworthy because Roe took down Davis by linking him to "big oil" and high gas prices.

It was the first time an incumbent Congressman has lost a primary in Tennessee since 1966.

-- Audie Cornish

2:07 PM ET | 08- 8-2008 | permalink

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The Expectations Game

Setting expectations is a tricky business for politicians. You want to appear confident, because it makes you look strong and intimidating...but not TOO confident because then you seem cocky and risk publicly falling short of your goals.

So at a press briefing today, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), the respective heads of the committees working to elect (and re-elect) Democrats to the Senate and the House, were endeavoring to toe that line. While they touted their party's unprecedented field operations, vastly improved early voter contact strategy, solid fundraising, and progress in the polls, Van Hollen warned against "irrational exuberance" among House candidates and Schumer cautioned that the Senate map is one of the "reddest...in a very long time" -- i.e. many of the contested seats are in majority-Republican states.

Nonetheless, Schumer's assessment of the Dems' chances were pretty darn optimistic. He repeatedly speculated that while it would be "very hard," Democrats have a chance of achieving a filibuster-proof majority of 60 Senators. (They currently hold a slim majority of 51, including two Independents who caucus with them.) It's a pie-in-the sky idea that Schumer cast as being about as likely as picking up 6 Senate seats was in 2006. Which, you'll recall, they did.

Schumer also gave a remarkably candid breakdown of where those pickups might come from (of the 35 Senate seats at stake this year, 23 are currently held by Republicans). His calls:

Likely Dem Pickups: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska
Close/Even Contests: Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina
Possible Pickups Under The Right Conditions: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Georgia

You can compare Schumer's assessments with those of NPR's political soothsayer Ken Rudin on our interactive Senate map.

-- Evie Stone

3:10 PM ET | 07-23-2008 | permalink

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House Primaries in Black and White

The hopes of a younger guard of black politicians were not realized in Tuesday's primary in Georgia; two challengers gave Rep. John Lewis (D-5th District) his first primary challenge in 16 years but failed to come close to defeating Lewis, let alone pull him into a runoff. Their beef with the longtime civil rights icon: his initial endorsement of Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, which they argued showed he was "out of touch."

Similarly, the primary challenge to white incumbent John Barrow (D-11th) from state Sen. Regina Thomas, who is black, also had racial considerations; the district is 45 percent African-American, and Barrow is quite conservative. But Barrow had the endorsement of Obama and sailed through his renomination fight. One lingering question for Barrow, who defeated his GOP rival by just 864 votes in 2006: will his embrace of Obama, which helped him on Tuesday, hurt him in November with conservative, rural whites?

At least three other Democratic incumbents -- two black, one white -- are facing potentially difficult primaries in the next two months, and in two of them race is clearly a factor.

Continue reading "House Primaries in Black and White" »

11:09 AM ET | 07-17-2008 | permalink

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