Friday Morning: Mukasey Recovering; Clinton's State Appointment Is 'On Track'; And It's Midnight For Rule-Making

Happy Friday! Just a few short days until turkey time...

We are relieved to report that Attorney General Michael Mukasey seems to be okay after collapsing during a speech at The Federalist Society last night. He was rushed to George Washington University Hospital from the event, and the DoJ's press office released a statement shortly after midnight saying that Mukasey was "conscious, conversant and alert" but would stay at the hospital overnight for observation. President Bush spoke with the Attorney General by phone this morning, and according to a White House statement he "sounded well".

The latest on Hillary Clinton's possible appointment as Secretary of State: the vetting issues with Bill Clinton's foundation fundraising and international speechmaking have apparently been resolved. The anonymously-sourced phrase that's making the rounds is that the nomination is "on track" and may be announced shortly after Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile the NYT reports that if Clinton does not head to State she may get a "still-undefined leadership role" in the Senate. According to the Times, the Senate leadership is trying to come up with an elevated post for Clinton that would not dislodge any other Democrat. It's a tricky situation, since Clinton is still pretty junior. But if she takes the State post, she'll be barred from raising any more money to pay off her remaining $7.5 million in campaign debt ($5.4 million of which she owes to pollster/strategist Mark Penn). So what will she decide?

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Mukasey Recovering; Clinton's State Appointment Is 'On Track'; And It's Midnight For Rule-Making " »

10:00 AM ET | 11-21-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Biden's Birthday; Napolitano For DHS; And Waxman Vs. Dingell

Good morning, and a very happy 66th birthday to Joe Biden. Via the campaign, Barack Obama threw his VP-elect a little cupcake party yesterday to celebrate:

President-elect Barack Obama surprised him yesterday with cupcakes after their weekly lunch. Then, the President-elect led the staff in singing him happy birthday and gave him a Chicago White Sox hat, a Chicago Bears hat and a bucket of Garrett's popcorn as gifts.

On today's schedule: Biden celebrates with his family, Obama has private meetings in Chicago, and future chief of staff Rahm Emanuel will be on the Hill reaching out to Republican leaders.

Two more potential Cabinet picks leaked out overnight. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano is apparently Barack Obama's choice to head the Department of Homeland Security. As Governor of a border state, Napolitano is well-versed in border-control and immigration issues. Prior to her election as governor, Napolitano was U.S. Attorney and Attorney General of the Grand Canyon State. Arizona does not have a Lieutenant Governor, so if Napolitano accepts the position at DHS, the remainder of her term will be filled by Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican.

And CNN is reporting (unconfirmed elsewhere) that Obama's campaign finance chair Penny Pritzker is a frontrunner for Secretary of Commerce. Pritzker, an heir to the family that founded Hyatt Hotels, is currently the chair of Classic Residence By Hyatt. If she is nominated, Pritzker could face tough questioning in confirmation hearings about her involvement with Chicago Superior Bank -- which failed in 2001 under the weight of too many subprime loans.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Biden's Birthday; Napolitano For DHS; And Waxman Vs. Dingell " »

10:15 AM ET | 11-20-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Stevens Voted Out; HRC Plays Hard To Get; And John King's Touch Screen Of Doom

Good morning on this wintry Wednesday in the nation's capital.

First things first: the actual news. As of last night, NPR (along with pretty much every other news organizaton) officially projects a victory for Democrat Mark Begich in the Alaska Senate race. Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, defeats Ted Stevens, who has held the seat since 1968. Stevens, whose appropriations largesse made him extremely popular among Alaskans, saw his reputation tarnished by a seven-count felony conviction last month for failing to disclose about $250,000 in gifts and services. According to the Anchorage Daily News, Stevens has not yet called Begich to concede the race. There is still a chance he'll call for a recount, though it would have to be on his own dime; the state sponsors a recount if the margin is less than 0.5%, but Begich currently leads by just over 1% (3,724 votes) with about 2,500 overseas ballots still to be counted. Begich will be the first Democrat to serve Alaska in the Senate since Mike Gravel was voted out in 1980.

The Begich victory brings the Democrats to a total of 58 caucus members (including two Independents: foreign policy hawk Joe Lieberman, whose possible defection to the GOP caucus was averted yesterday when he was allowed to retain his Homeland Security chairmanship despite his vocal support for John McCain; and Vermont's Bernie Sanders, who describes himself as an "Independent Democratic Socialist").

The new total keeps the Dems two votes short of a filibuster-proof majority, with two Senate races still to be decided. Minnesota's contest between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken is in the midst of a recount after the original tally gave Coleman a .07% advantage. And the Georgia race between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin goes to a December 2nd runoff after Chambliss won a comfortable plurality but fell just shy of the majority required for victory by Georgia state law.

And now on to the speculation.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Stevens Voted Out; HRC Plays Hard To Get; And John King's Touch Screen Of Doom" »

10:15 AM ET | 11-19-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: A Very Lame Duck Session; The Lieberman Referendum; and More Clinton Catnip

Good morning.

The Senate reconvened for their lame-duck session yesterday. And while things in the financial markets are anything but ducky, the prospects for the last hurrah of the 110th Congresss are really pretty lame. Yesterday's debate about a potential bailout for the U.S. auto industry seemed to indicate that a bill to help the Big Three will make little progress before a few extra Democrats show up in January. The bill, proposed by Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid, would allocate an additional $25 billion from October's $700 billion bailout package to be used for bridge loans to the auto companies. Democrats would need at least 10 Republican Senators to support the bill in order to pass it this week, and that seems highly unlikely at this point, despite in-person pleas from Big Three execs in the Senate today and the House tomorrow. So both the auto industry bailout and the larger stimulus package the Dems have proposed will likely have to hang fire until the 111th Congress convenes. Politico's David Rogers writes:

The likely result will be a two-month delay before any major new action is initiated by Congress, a gamble for all sides but one that falls heavily on the shoulders of the Democratic majority. It may prove shrewd politics, creating more pressure for quick action when Obama takes office. But it is not without risks, sacrificing precious time and adding to the perception of a leadership void in Washington.

The perception of a leadership void?

One action on the Hill today is certain: today Senate Democrats will cast secret ballots about what should happen to their colleague Joe Lieberman, the Independent Democrat from Connecticut who supported John McCain for President -- and who holds the valuable Homeland Security Committee chairmanship.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: A Very Lame Duck Session; The Lieberman Referendum; and More Clinton Catnip" »

10:00 AM ET | 11-18-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Kroft-Obama; The Bill Factor; And The Rivals' Post-Election Sitdown

Good morning. It's Monday, and the political world had a busy weekend. The G-20 met here in Washington to discuss the global financial crisis; the Obama transition team announced several more members of the future White House staff; and the President-elect and future First Lady appeared on 60 minutes.

In the 60 minutes interview, Obama told CBS's Steve Kroft that he will not attempt to re-create the New Deal programs of FDR's administration, but would look for solutions that are "true to our times". He vowed to develop a "clear focused program for homeowners" to prevent further foreclosures. He discussed potential aid to the auto industry, but said it would be "conditioned on labor, management, suppliers, lenders, all the stakeholders coming together with a plan" to develop a sustainable model for the troubled sector. And he said that soon after taking office he would start looking at plans to draw down troops from Iraq and re-deploy them to Afghanistan to "shore up" that war...a move that will surely be aided by the accord signed this morning that sets a three-year timeline for U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq.

The President-elect declined to give answers about potential Cabinet secretaries, though he did hint that some former rivals could get seats at the table (citing Abraham Lincoln's "team of rivals" as a wise maneuver). He also joked about his new lack of anonymity -- having to get house calls from his barber instead of visiting the shop -- and reiterated his call for a college football tournament to replace the convoluted bowl system.

The question that's still capturing Washington imaginations: whether Hillary Clinton will indeed be named Secretary of State in the Obama administration.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Kroft-Obama; The Bill Factor; And The Rivals' Post-Election Sitdown" »

10:00 AM ET | 11-17-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Obama To Meet With McCain; HRC For Secretary Of State?; And Ayers Speaks Up

Happy Friday!

The Obama campaign announces that the President-elect will meet with his general election opponent John McCain in Chicago Monday. Via a release from transition team spokesperson Stephanie Cutter:

It's well known that they share an important belief that Americans want and deserve a more effective and efficient government, and will discuss ways to work together to make that a reality. They will be joined in the meeting by Senator Lindsey Graham and Congressman Rahm Emanuel.

Speaking of former opponents, rumors are a-swirling that Obama's Democratic primary rival Hillary Clinton is in contention for an appointment as Secretary of State. AP's Liz Sidoti writes that the appointment of several top Clinton aides to the transition team re-invigorated HRC speculation that had died down after some chatter last week. Mike Allen moves the rumors forward in this morning's Playbook:

[S]ome Obama advisers argue that Clinton would be an ideal fit if Obama concludes that he will have to focus his early days in office on the domestic economy, and will have to essentially outsource heavy-duty foreign travel to his secretary of State. Her celebrity and credibility would be a huge asset in his goal of reengaging the United States with allies. "You can send out John Kerry or Chuck Hagel," said one adviser, mentioning some other candidates for secretary of State. "Sending Hillary Clinton out is better."

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Obama To Meet With McCain; HRC For Secretary Of State?; And Ayers Speaks Up " »

10:00 AM ET | 11-14-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Palin Talks To RGA; Klain To The VP's Office; And 8,000 Plum Jobs

Good morning. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is changing course on the bailout. Forget the federal government buying bad mortgage assets from financial institutions (though it will continue to help banks in other ways). Yesterday Paulson announced a shift of focus to troubled consumers, including (via the WSJ) plans to "increase the availability of student loans, auto loans and credit cards. He said he's also examining ways to help prevent foreclosures." Consumer access to credit has evaporated with the crisis, and if people can't get loans to pay for expensive stuff -- houses, cars, home renovations, Christmas presents, college tuition, etc. -- it's very hard for the economy to move forward.

Far from Wall Street (or Washington), Sarah Palin addresses her fellow Republican Govs at their meeting in Miami today. What can she tell us that we haven't already gleaned from her parade of interviews this week? Our Greg Allen is on the scene with pricked ears.

In transition news, "Democratic insiders" are rampantly leaking to reporters that Ron Klain has accepted the the job of chief-of-staff to VP-elect Joe Biden. Klain is a Clinton administration veteran and onetime senior aide to VP Al Gore (and key figure in the Gore campaign's recount effort back in 2000...Kevin Spacey played him in the movie). Politico's Mike Allen writes:

The appointment enhances the continuity between the two Democratic administrations. Veterans of the Clinton-Gore White House have been given top jobs in the Obama-Biden transition.

(Though, we hasten to note, almost every ambitious, important Democrat whose career dates back to the 90s has some kind of ties to the Clinton administration...that's where the action was for eight years.)

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Palin Talks To RGA; Klain To The VP's Office; And 8,000 Plum Jobs" »

9:45 AM ET | 11-13-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Transition Rules Limit (But Don't Exclude) Lobbyists; Podesta Goes 'Soft And Creamy'; and Bush's Regrets

Good morning.

The Obama transition has announced its ethical guidelines for lobbyists involved in the transition. The rules prohibit federal lobbyists from donating money to the transition or doing any lobbying while working for the transition. They also say that anyone who has lobbied on an issue in the past year cannot work on that policy area in the transition, and anyone working on an issue in the transition cannot lobby the administration on that issue in the next year. The new edict doesn't hew to Obama's early campaign promises that lobbyists "won't find a job in my White House", but the rules are still more stringent than any previous President's lobbying restrictions. The transition team's release describing the guidelines features accolades from Thomas Mann at the center-left Brookings Institution and Norm Ornstein at conservative AEI, who both acknowledge that the restrictions will keep some smart, talented policy thinkers out of the White House -- but agree that the anti-corruption symbolism is worth it.

Transition chief John Podesta held a so-called pen-and-pad briefing for reporters yesterday that did not turn out to be particularly revelatory. The WP's Dana Milbank describes long lines of reporters clamoring for entry, but few real answers in the Q&A session. In fact, Milbank compares Podesta's repetition of variants on "we'll announce it when we have something to announce" to the press secretary stylings of world-class stonewaller Ari Fleischer, noting that Podesta's "smooth and creamy" (Milbank's phrase) bearing was intended to send a pragmatic message:

But there was a method to Podesta's mundaneness. The nation has impossible expectations about how quickly Obama will move to reshape the nation -- and as transition chief, one of Podesta's goals is to tamp those expectations down to realistic levels. A Diageo-Hotline poll found that 66 percent, including a third of Republicans, are confident Obama will bring "real change" to the capital.

But such lofty expectations will collide with Washington's rhythms, which explains why Obama has risked disappointing his starry-eyed supporters by hiring such Washington denizens as Rahm Emanuel and Podesta. The campaign may have been a time to say "Yes, we can," but now it's time to turn on the fuzz machine...

Don't look for any new announcements today, as the President- and VP-elect will be in "private meetings" all day long...but a rescue plan for the big-three automakers seems to be brewing in Congress for the lame-duck session, with backing from Pelosi, Reid, and Obama. The WSJ calls the nascent rescue package "an early test of [Obama's] leadership" -- though he may not appear in the Senate to cast a vote on the bill.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Transition Rules Limit (But Don't Exclude) Lobbyists; Podesta Goes 'Soft And Creamy'; and Bush's Regrets" »

9:45 AM ET | 11-12-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: What Happened in the Oval Office Yesterday, and the Future of (Former and Nearly Former) DNC Chairmen

More details have emerged from the private Bush-Obama meeting yesterday. According to the NYT, Obama urged Bush to help Congress pass a broader economic stimulus package and to help ailing automakers on the brink of bankruptcy. Detroit's Big Three -- GM, Ford, and Chrysler -- have already received $25 billion in federal loans. They're looking for $25 billion more.

Apparently, Bush was open to the idea of a broader stimulus package, providing that Obama and Congressional Democrats would agree to a free-trade agreement with Colombia. Those terms might compel Obama to wait until he's president on January 20th before working for emergency aid for the auto industry.

And come January 20th, what will happen with the war in Afghanistan? The Washington Post reports this morning that an Obama administration might approach the war
with a more regional strategy that could include talks with Iran, "nascent dialogue between the Afghan government and 'reconcilable' elements of the Taliban," the deployment of thousands more troops, a ramped-up hunt for Osama bin Laden.

Plus, Terry McAuliffe -- former DNC Chairman and Hillary Clinton campaign chairman -- has filed papers for a possible run to follow Tim Kaine as Governor of Virginia. And current DNC Chairman Howard Dean says he doesn't plan on seeking a second term.

One week after losing the presidential election (and a slew of House and Senate seats), the Republican Party is on the lookout for leaders. Could it be Newt Gengrich, Sarah Palin, or Bobby Jindal?

-- Thomas Pierce

9:50 AM ET | 11-11-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: the Plan for Day One, Ah-nold's Smile, and Babies Named Barack

President-elect Obama's transition team is quietly working to ensure that he makes a big splash in his first few weeks in the Oval Office. The NYT reports that his advisers are putting together a list of Bush policies (possibly the ban on stem cell research and the expansion of gas and oil drilling) that could be overturned quickly using the new president's executive powers. And the AP has the skinny on Obama's plans for shutting down Guantanamo Bay prison. Doing so might require the "creation of a controversial new system of justice" for the hundreds of detainees who could be shipped to the U.S. for criminal trials.

We're not holding our breath for any Cabinet Secretary announcements this week. But Obama is scheduled to meet with President Bush at the White House this afternoon. More on that as it comes.

In other news, Chris Van Hollen will continue to serve as the DCCC Chair in the 2010 election cycle. John McCain will be on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno tomorrow night. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a happy man again. And from Kenya to America, newborns are going to grow up Barack.

-- Thomas Pierce

9:59 AM ET | 11-10-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Emanuel Changes The Dynamic; Whither Lieberman; And Berlusconi Puts His Foot In It

Happy Friday! Three days after the election and the chattering classes are in full political-appointment speculation mode. To answer your inevitable question: no, we can't just wait for Obama to actually name people and then write about them. What fun is that?

The first post is already in the can: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) as the new White House chief of staff. We gave you a quick backgrounder on Emanuel yesterday. Our Linton Weeks has this look at Emanuel's storied ferocity and how it might help or hurt him in his new assignment. And Politico's Ben Smith and John Harris posit that the choice signals a departure from the Obama campaign's famed "no drama" mantra, and a turn toward a more pragmatic "determination to be effective under the existing rules of the Washington game." Those changes were evident before Emanuel even accepted the job:

Obama's campaign was deliberately low-key and hermetically sealed from leaks. The Emanuel era arrived with a jolt before Election Day, when word leaked that he'd been offered the job. Then word leaked that he was "agonizing." Then he agonized about moving his children to Washington in front of television cameras on a Chicago street. Then word leaked that he took the job.

"If it was from [the campaign], it was the first leak they've had in two years. That was obviously from him," said a senior Democratic congressional aide, who added, "He's strategic enough in his leaking -- I don't think that would be a problem" when he is in the White House.

The new chief of staff will join the President- and VP-elect at a meeting with economic advisers today (hot on the heels of October's grim jobless report), followed by a 1:30pm CST/2:30 EST press conference.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Emanuel Changes The Dynamic; Whither Lieberman; And Berlusconi Puts His Foot In It" »

10:00 AM ET | 11- 7-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: The Transition Begins; GOP Regrouping Efforts; And Finger-Pointing Galore

Good morning! It's two days after the election, 75 days before inauguration, and the transition to an Obama administration has begun clanking into action.

Yesterday the Obama forces released a list of transition staff -- headed by Valerie Jarrett, Pete Rouse, and John Podesta (who says he will not be taking a permanent position at the White House). Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel says he is mulling Obama's offer to serve as White House Chief of Staff. And Politico's Mike Allen reports that Robert Gibbs will be the White House press secretary. This is the first wartime transition since 1968, and it comes in the middle of very uncertain economic times for the nation and the world (the latest bad tidings: the Nikkei dropped 6.5% today and Goldman Sachs is laying off 3200 employees). The transition also comes after terrorist attacks on U.S. soil during the first year in office of each of the last two Presidents (the first WTC bombing in 1993 and the attacks of September 11, 2001). The Obama administration cannot afford to dawdle as the Clinton folks did. NPR's Ari Shapiro reports this morning that handovers at government agencies are traditionally awkward, especially in a party change. But because of this year's especially high stakes, about 100 members of Obama and McCain's teams were given top security clearances so that briefings could get under way immediately after election day.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: The Transition Begins; GOP Regrouping Efforts; And Finger-Pointing Galore " »

10:00 AM ET | 11- 6-2008 | permalink

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Filling In Details

The general shape of Barack Obama's smashing victory and the Democratic gains in Congress did not change overnight.

Picking up the Cavalcade of Returns where the indefatigable Evie Stone left off five hours ago:

Three Republican senators are locked in races too close to call.

In Minnesota, GOP incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic comedian Al Franken are less than one-half of a percent point apart. That would trigger a mandatory recount under state law.

Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley were nearly tied, with some 630,000 votes left to count, the AP reports.

Alaska's Ted Stevens, who squeezed in some fierce campaigning in the few days between his corruption conviction and Election Day, is about 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Mark Begich.

Democrats knew last night they've got five new Senate seats, in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Virginia.

In the House, we still don't know about a half-dozen races. Republicans are defending in all but one:

Rep. Don Young (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D), AK-AL
Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Darcy Burner (D), WA-5
Rep. Bill Sali (R) vs. Walt Minnick (D), ID-1
Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), CA-4 -- seat vacated by GOP Rep. John Doolittle, who was caught in the Abramoff lobbying scandal
Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) vs. Nick Leibham (D), CA-50
Scott Starin (R) vs. Jared Polis (D), CO-3 -- seat vacated by Democratic Rep., now Sen.-Elect Mark Udall
Rep. Virgil Goode (R) vs. Tom Perriello (D), VA-5
Andy Harris (R) vs. Frank Kratovil (D), MD-2 -- seat formerly held by GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, whom Harris defeated in a primary

Not counting any of these, it's already an 18-seat shift from Republicans to Democrats in the House chamber.

Things may slow down from here in the vote-counting business. It takes a lot longer to recount and verify than to do the initial tallies.

We'll keep you posted.

-- Peter Overby

9:22 AM ET | 11- 5-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Voting, And Some Voting Problems

Election Day greetings from Peter Overby. I'm abandoning the money trail, at least for today, and subbing for Evie, who's resting up for tonight.

Not much campaign trail news, not surprisingly: Obama's in Chicago, with a day trip to Indiana. He and Michelle voted first thing this morning. He has a tradition of playing basketball while the voting is in progress; the game may happen later this afternoon.

McCain's in Phoenix. He was on the CBS Early Show, and plans to hit Colorado and New Mexico today.

As for voters and what they face when they go to vote, here are some things we know so far:

Kevin Gavin of WDUQ in Pittsburgh reports that some voting machines broke down early, and paper ballots were slow in getting to those precincts. But things seem smoother now. He also says an outage temporarily cut off power at a polling site in the Hill District, which is heavily African American.

Philadelphia seems to have bigger problems, however, according to the independent group Election Protection. Pennsylvania generally has reports that voting machines have broken, that some voters are getting provisional ballots illegally, and in some places paper ballots are running out.

Virginia has more than 10 polling sites with machine issues, Election Protection and the AP say. Election Protection calls the situation "far more severe than expected." AP reports that a librarian overslept in Richmond, delaying the opening the polling place there by 25 minutes. And in Chesapeake, there were reports of malfunctioning machines and a line of 1,000 voters in one precinct.

Election Protection says reports from Cleveland, OH, are "of general confusion and mechanical malfunctions."

Harbingers of a tense and contentious day? Or just the initial shakedown problems for systems that were just fired up?

Let us know by texting, Twitter, email, iPhone, Googlephone, or a plain old 866- phone call. Details here.

-- Peter Overby

10:45 AM ET | 11- 4-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Polls Tighten, But Maybe Not Enough; Op-Ed Face-Off; And The Campaign In Viral Vids

Good morning on this last day before the election. And how lovely to wake up with the sun already coming up! Love that time change.

We're down to the wire and the polls appear to be tightening somewhat -- but, according to statistician extraordinaire Nate Silver, the breakdown of likely outcomes still heavily favors Obama. The NYT says down-ballot Republicans are imperiled as well. Voters have a crazy way of ignoring pundits and prognosticators...but it appears that this could be what sports columnists would term a "rebuilding cycle" for the GOP. Yet to be answered: is 2010 the new 1994? Depends on the coaching (RNC, NRCC, NRSC chairmanships) and recruiting...and how delicately the Dems handle their majorities. As President Bush learned with Social Security reform in 2005, it's easy to overestimate your political capital.

But let's put that cart back where it belongs for now. Weekend developments...John McCain took an entertaining turn on SNL, hocking pork knives and "McCain Fine Gold" on QVC in the open. (Though he may have been overshadowed by Ben Affleck's hi-larious Olbermann send-up...) Elsewhere, Sarah Palin played victim to some Canadian radio pranksters pretending to be Nicolas Sarkozy and murmuring in French about clubbing baby seals. And an Obama half-aunt who is in the country illegally, living in public housing in Boston, came to light via a leak from ICE. Obama says he didn't know about her status, and the campaign has returned $260 that she donated in small increments over the course of the campaign.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Polls Tighten, But Maybe Not Enough; Op-Ed Face-Off; And The Campaign In Viral Vids" »

10:30 AM ET | 11- 3-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Obama On-Air In AZ; McCain Pushes TV Over GOTV; And Tracking The Undecideds

Happy Friday, and Happy Halloween! (Although I have to admit that I don't know what has come over this holiday lately. Seriously.)

FOUR days out, and the candidates and their surrogates are still barnstorming the swing states. McCain continues his Ohio bus tour today, Obama visits Iowa and Indiana, and Al Gore stumps for the Democratic nominee in two symbolic Florida counties.

The Obama campaign announced this morning that they'll be running their closing argument ads in three of 2004's red states where Obama has been closing the gap: Geogria, North Dakota, and...Arizona? Yup, the Dems are making a play for McCain's home state, where some polls show the race tightening. Our Ken Rudin still favors McCain in Arizona. Maybe this ad buy is intended more as psychological warfare.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Obama On-Air In AZ; McCain Pushes TV Over GOTV; And Tracking The Undecideds" »

10:30 AM ET | 10-31-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Obama's Big Show; McCain Tries To Change The Subject; And An Early Voting Blitz

Good morning! 5 days to go, the markets are psyched about yesterday's Fed rate cut, and congratulations to the Phils.

Barack Obama's much-touted 30-minute informercial aired last night on three broadcast networks and several cable channels. It had very smooth production values, provided a blizzard of information about the candidate's plans for his potential administration, and allowed Obama to get personal with voters now accustomed to seeing him address huge crowds. But what did undecided voters think? We have absolutely no idea, and no one else seems to want to speculate about that either. But was that even the point? Or was the idea to keep fanning enthusiasm among those who signed on with Obama months ago and whose patience for the endless campaign is in danger of waning? A few reviews of the giant buy as TV entertainment here, here, and here.

The McCain campaign sniffed at the television spectacular, with the candidate saying it was "paid for with broken promises" and spokesman Tucker Bounds writing to reporters, "as anyone who has bought anything from an infomercial knows, the sales-job is always better than the product. Buyer beware." (Apparently Tucker Bounds does not cotton to the idea of set it and forget it.)

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Obama's Big Show; McCain Tries To Change The Subject; And An Early Voting Blitz " »

10:15 AM ET | 10-30-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Obama's Informercial; Palin As Standard-Bearer; and Free Joe Biden!

Good morning all! It's Wednesday, 6 days out, and still blizzing away in parts of the northeast (Mom, are your snow tires on yet?!). Luckily for the snowbound, they've got Barack Obama's 30-minute buy on CBS, NBC, Fox, Univision, MSNBC, BET, and TV One to keep them warm before the resumption of Game 5. The New York Times obtained a one-minute trailer for tonight's infomercial spectacular from the campaign. Times reporter Jim Rutenberg describes it as "heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana." The special will also drop in live on a rally in Florida. Hold on to your hats, America! The McCain camp aims to pre-empt the TV bonanza with a 30-second ad reviving our favorite "Celeb" theme from over the summer.

Sarah Palin will give a policy address today in Toledo on America's energy future. Via the WSJ, the VP nominee won't break any new ground, sticking with campaign standbys of developing alternative energy and increasing domestic production of traditional sources. She will also aim to boost her own policy gravitas by reminding voters of her experience with energy policy issues.

Throughout the speech, Gov. Palin will talk about her qualifications to lead on this issue, citing her time as governor and when she served on the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Alaska is home to 18.5% of the U.S. crude oil supply and boasts 13.4% of the country's crude oil production, according to the Energy Information Administration.

"Coming from the huge energy producing state and as the former regulator of our oil and gas industry, and chair of the nation's interstate oil and gas conservation commission, this is one of the missions that I cannot wait to get to work on," Gov. Palin said

Palin will also link U.S. energy independence to national security.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Obama's Informercial; Palin As Standard-Bearer; and Free Joe Biden!" »

10:30 AM ET | 10-29-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: GOP Tea Leafing; Making An A** Out Of U And The Media; And Really? Still With The Clothes?

Good morning, we're one week out and the markets are yo-ing back up...at least for the moment.

The candidates are making their final arguments to voters as the local organizations turn to get-out-the vote efforts. The RNC has bought ads in once-reliably red Montana and West Virginia. And Jonathan Martin reports that the DNC has taken out a loan in an effort to maximize the outcome of what they expect to be a favorable election day. In other words: signs of confidence among Democrats and nervousness among Republicans abound...though McCain does appear to be making up some ground on the economy with his Joe-inspired tax talk. (A new ad released this morning keeps up that argument.)

The reports of Republican infighting have been legion over the past week. This morning, the LA Times looks beyond November 4th to speculate about the future of the GOP. Peter Wallsten writes that social conservatives will be making a play for RNC leadership at the party's winter meeting, and will aim to revitalize the battles against abortion, gay marriage, and immigration. Party moderates respond that the party has alienated voters with its divisive rhetoric and should be broadening its appeal rather than narrowing its focus. But the socially conservative faction may work to limit John McCain's influence on the direction of the Republican Party even if he is elected.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: GOP Tea Leafing; Making An A** Out Of U And The Media; And Really? Still With The Clothes? " »

10:30 AM ET | 10-28-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: The Candidates' Final Push; Mutiny On The Straight Talk?; And South Dakota Weighs An Abortion Ban

Good morning! 8 days to go on this brisk and windy DC morning. And happy 150th to McCain role model Theodore Roosevelt. You'll always be our Bull Moose.

Both candidates are making a final push to close the deal -- The NYT's Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny have a writeup to kick off the final full week of campaigning, zeroing in on the battleground states of 2008 -- with the exception of Pennsylvania, all red states from the last go-round four years ago. The Times calls that targeting "testimony to the increasingly dire position of Mr. McCain and his party as Election Day approaches".

NPR's Ina Jaffe has a terrific primer this morning on how McCain is making his final push (10 audio clips, INCLUDING ROCKY THEME MUSIC, in 3 minutes and 47 seconds?! Ina, we salute you). And the Obama campaign is circulating excerpts from the Dem nominee's "closing argument speech", which actually sounds a lot like Obama's opening argument lo these 19 months ago:

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: The Candidates' Final Push; Mutiny On The Straight Talk?; And South Dakota Weighs An Abortion Ban" »

10:15 AM ET | 10-27-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: GOP Blame-fest; Ahoy, Republican Ship-Jumpers!; And Bloomberg Will Run Again

Happy Friday! Well, not in Japan. But here in DC we kicked off the day with a gorgeous sunrise (almost makes waking up in the dark worthwhile).

Politico reports on an almost Democratic-level display of defeatism and self-immolation among Republicans. The piece follows yesterday's trashing of the Bush administration by John McCain in a Washington Times interview published yesterday and the bevy of McCain advisers talking out of school (and not-for-attribution) about tactics in a campaign profile in the upcoming NYT magazine. Politico's Jonathan Martin, Mike Allen, and John F. Harris provide these telling nuggets:

"If you really want to see what 'going negative' is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we're starting to see," said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. "And there's one common theme: Everyone who wasn't part of the campaign could have done better."

"The cake is baked," agreed a former McCain strategist. "We're entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It's every man for himself now."

Continue reading "Friday Morning: GOP Blame-fest; Ahoy, Republican Ship-Jumpers!; And Bloomberg Will Run Again" »

10:00 AM ET | 10-24-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Everyone's A Fashionista; Security and 'Rhetorical Flourishes'; And McCain's Negative Press

Good morning, all. It's Thursday, we're 12 days out, the Dow keeps yo-yoing, and new jobless claims for last week were higher than expected. At least the sun is shining in Washington.

But who cares about the tanking economy, tax policy, or the wars when we can be talking about Sarah Palin's RNC wardrobe budget? Politico finds stylists who say the outlay was "money well spent" to make her appearance job-appropriate. The NYT says you can't even tell the difference between Palin's fancy new threads and her regular old ones (quoting Glamour editor Cindi Leive, whose first reaction to the story was, awesomely, "Honey, I could have dressed you for a lot less than that"). WP's fashion columnist Robin Givhan thinks the sprees damage Palin's everywoman image and the campaign should have taken her to J. Crew and Ann Taylor. The LA Times says reaction to the spending falls (surprise!) along party lines. And former McCain strategist-turned-campaign-irritant Mike Murphy offers a few humorous suggestions on how the campaign can spin the story. Sample: "William Ayers is a terrorist!"

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Everyone's A Fashionista; Security and 'Rhetorical Flourishes'; And McCain's Negative Press " »

9:45 AM ET | 10-23-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: McCain's Pennsylvania Push; Phone Wars; and "Campaign Accesories" By Barneys

Good morning, all. It's Wednesday, it's gorgeously sunny, the maple trees in Washington are aflame with fall color, and we only have 13 days of this madness left!

The NYT reports this morning that the McCain camp sees the road to victory traversing Pennsylvania. A raft of statewide polls give Obama a double-digit lead in PA, but the McCain campaign says their internal numbers are more favorable and they're putting on the hard sell. After this spring's 6-week run-up to the state's contested Democratic primary, Dems have a strong registration edge over the GOP in Pennsylvania, but questions persist about the degree to which race will play a role in the election outcome. (Though some anecdotal evidence describes households that use the n-word and profess support for Obama in the same breath.) Democratic Governor Ed Rendell tells CNN he's still "a little nervous" and has requested that Obama do more campaigning in PA before election day. But the LA Times remains skeptical of McCain's chances in the state, writing that "by any number of measures, McCain's [Pennsylvania] prospects are dimming." McCain was there yesterday, telling the citizens of Western Pennsylvania (rather stumblingly) that the region is the "most patriotic, most God loving, most patriotic part of America." Hey, what about "real Virginia" and all those "pro-America" small towns in other states?

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: McCain's Pennsylvania Push; Phone Wars; and "Campaign Accesories" By Barneys " »

10:30 AM ET | 10-22-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: 14 Days To Go; Things May Be Rocky for McCain in Colorado; and Kids (Narrowly) Elect Obama

Good morning y'all,

Two weeks from today, America picks its next president. And I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, oh no, only 14 more days of election news... only 14 more days of stump speeches, poll-data, kerfluffles, game-changers, and a never-ending barrage of questionably accurate/appropriate campaign advertisements. However sad the prospect that all of this must come to an end, we march on:

McCain had a rough weekend -- what with Obama's insanely large fundraising numbers and the Colin Powell endorsement -- but yesterday the Republican nominee may have found an antidote to some of that. Oddly enough (or perhaps not so oddly), it came from Joe Biden. Seizing on Biden's comments that an Obama presidency would encounter an international crisis within its first six months, McCain addressed a crowd in Belton, Missouri saying, "We don't want a president who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars." He added:

What is more troubling is that Sen. Biden told their campaign donors that when that crisis hits, they would have to stand with them, because it wouldn't be apparent Sen. Obama would have the right response... Forget apparent. Sen. Obama won't have the right response, and we know that because we've seen the wrong response from him over and over during this campaign.

Questioning Obama's experience and judgment could be effective, but whether or not McCain will be taking this message to swing states like Colorado is unclear. CNN's John King reported last night that the campaign may be looking at a revised electoral strategy that emphasizes Pennsylvania -- and doesn't rely on states like Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (all won by Bush in 2004). Team McCain had previously banked on a win in Colorado, but that could be changing:

"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states. This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."

Campaign manager Rick Davis is among the dissenters, believing the state remains within reach, several sources in and close to the McCain campaign say.

However, the McCain camp kicked back this morning, saying they still have their sights set on Colorado. Jonathan Martin reports:

Two senior aides didn't deny that Colorado appeared challenging, but pointed to the two key indicators of any campaign's intent, time and money, to make the case that they were still holding out hope there.

"We didn't send Gov. Palin there for no reason," said one, a reference to the vice presidential nominee's three rallies across the state today.

Speaking of Palin, she's now taking questions -- maybe even more than Obama, Biden, and McCain.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: 14 Days To Go; Things May Be Rocky for McCain in Colorado; and Kids (Narrowly) Elect Obama" »

8:27 AM ET | 10-21-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: a Good Day for Obama, and an Excellent Night for SNL

Good morning y'all,

I hope you had a lovely weekend. Barack Obama sure did.

The good news for the Democratic candidate came pouring in on Sunday -- most notably when Colin Powell endorsed Obama on NBC's Meet the Press. In addition to being a retired U.S. Army general and Secretary of State under Bush 43, Powell's also a former McCain campaign contributor. However, the endorsement wasn't a complete surprise. Powell had previously hinted at leaning toward Obama -- calling his candidacy "electrifying"-- but he always stopped short of an official endorsement.

So in case you missed it or don't have time to watch the video, here's the Powell endorsement in a nutshell: the Republican Party's moved too far right. The economic crisis was a "final exam," and McCain didn't score especially well. Obama did. Sarah Palin's not ready to be vice-president because she's not ready to be president. McCain's turn to the negative -- Bill Ayers and robo-calls -- "goes too far." The Supreme Court doesn't need two more conservative judges. Obama isn't a Muslim, but even if he was, it shouldn't matter. Both McCain and Obama would be good presidents, but because Obama's such a "transformational figure," he'll be voting for him.

Hours later, Obama had kind words for Powell at a rally in Fayetteville, NC saying, "I am beyond honored and deeply humbled to have the support of Gen. Colin Powell." And this morning on NBC's Today, Obama stepped up his appreciation by suggesting that Powell may have a role in his administration as a top presidential adviser. Whether or not Powell would accept such a position, Obama said, is something they'd "have to discuss."

But that wasn't the only good news for the Democratic presidential hopeful. His campaign also announced yesterday that they'd broken previous fundraising records with a $150 million haul for the month of September. That's actually double the previous record (Obama collected $66 million in August). And with fundraising numbers this large, a debate is probably looming over the future relevancy of public financing. The NYT reports this morning that Democrats may not be in such a hurry to fix the public financing system in congress:

Democrats, though, may be reluctant to surrender the significant money-raising advantage they have developed over Republicans, saying that Mr. Obama, by cultivating millions of small donors over the Internet, has built what amounts to a parallel public financing system that is arguably more democratic.

"I think there's going to be a fight inside the Democratic Party on this," said David Donnelly, a director of Campaign Money Watch, a watchdog group.

The more specific fundraising numbers will be available later today when the campaign files with the FEC. But with the RNC raising roughly $66 million (which in any other year would be an intimidating figure) in the month of September, coupled with McCain's $84 million in public financing, we think it's fair to expect more of the same: Obama outspending McCain in battleground states. And that definitely goes for advertising -- television, print, radio, video game, wherever.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: a Good Day for Obama, and an Excellent Night for SNL" »

8:26 AM ET | 10-20-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Everybody Map!; Candidates Practice For The Catskills; And Palin To Appear On SNL

Good morning, happy people.

The map's the meme today, with all the papers aflutter over which states are turning which colors and rampant speculation about which parts of America the road to victory traverses. Sticking with that hackneyed metaphor, the general consensus is that Obama's road is wider and could traverse a variety of routes, whereas McCain is left with a narrow bike path that entails hanging onto everything Bush painted red in 2004. NYT's Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg:

Mr. Obama's advisers said they would use the remaining 19 days of the campaign to focus mainly on capturing states that President Bush won in 2004; he is going to Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia, over the next three days and spending two days in Florida next week.

(snip)

By contrast, Mr. McCain is spending the next three days campaigning in states that Mr. Bush won in 2004 and that earlier this year Republicans had considered relatively safe: he will visit Florida on Friday, followed by North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. Republicans said their hopes of capturing any state the Democrats won in 2004 appeared to be dwindling, though they said they held out hope for Pennsylvania, where Mr. McCain campaigned on Thursday but where he has recently slipped far behind Mr. Obama in some polls.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Everybody Map!; Candidates Practice For The Catskills; And Palin To Appear On SNL" »

11:30 AM ET | 10-17-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Fightin' McCain; Stocks Can't Find the "Up" Button; and Political Baseball

Good morning, folks.

With the last presidential debate now firmly in the can, we have officially entered the home stretch. Can't you almost taste Election Day?

Here's a hint at how last night's debate unfolded, via the morning headlines: "John McCain Aggressively Criticizes Obama". "McCain Seen As Aggressor". "McCain Attacks". "A Feisty McCain".

McCain certainly arrived in Hempstead, NY, ready to rumble. He laced up his gloves early and went on the offensive. By most accounts, that was his primary goal for the night. He needed to swing away, forcing Obama into a more defensive posture on a range of hot-button issues: Bill Ayers, ACORN, tax policy, energy issues, public financing, the negative ad war, the overall tone and tenor of the campaign, to name a few. By that measure, McCain did what he needed to do. He was pointed, insistent, focused, even energetic. He had a number of impressive parries and memorable comebacks, including this morning's most quoted zinger:

Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago. I'm going to give a new direction to this economy in this country.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Fightin' McCain; Stocks Can't Find the "Up" Button; and Political Baseball" »

11:03 AM ET | 10-16-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: The Image Game; Debate Swan Song; Ad Barrage

Good morning. Wednesday certainly arrived quickly. Evie is headed to Hempstead, NY today to help out with NPR's debate coverage. So I'm taking over the tiller. Be nice.

21 days and ticking...

The Morning Roundup would appear downright naked if we failed to mention the state of the economy. After an eye-popping resurgence on Monday (900-point jump), the Dow followed up with a somewhat lackluster performance yesterday. Stocks fell 76 points, further proof that skittish investors still rule the roost. The volatility in the markets continues to play out in the political arena. An LA Times/Bloomberg poll released late yesterday shows that Obama remains the beneficiary of the economic debacle. Almost half of all voters trust Obama to make sound economic decisions; in contrast, a little over a third trust McCain to do the same. 60 percent support Obama's economic plan, but only about 40 percent back McCain's plan. But the news hardly gets better for McCain: more voters -- 43 to 25 -- believe he has closer ties than Obama to the financial institutions at the center of the Wall Street implosion.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: The Image Game; Debate Swan Song; Ad Barrage" »

10:57 AM ET | 10-15-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Economic Plans Abound; McCain Returns To Form; And Vindication Semantics

Good morning, hope you all had a tremendous holiday weekend (and happy Thanksgiving to all you Canadians out there). THREE WEEKS OUT!

The country's financial situation remains perilous and confusing. Yesterday the Dow jumped more than 900 points (about 11%), posting the biggest one-day point gain ever and spurring similar gains in Asian and European Markets. The bounce likely stemmed from promises of market aid from central banks and governments worldwide. But while yesterday's news was certainly an improvement over the previous week's staggering losses, the enormous volatility in the market is still nervous-making for economists, politicians, and anyone who likes to buy things with money. This morning President Bush officially announced further programs to try to stem the country's financial slide. The plans he proposed include allowing the federal government to purchase equity shares in banks; government insurance for new bank debt and for the non-interest-bearing accounts primarily used by small businesses; and a proposal that has yet to be detailed allowing the Federal Reserve to buy commercial paper (a type of short-term IOU issued by businesses).

Meanwhile, the Presidential candidates are furiously proposing their own economic rescue plans.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Economic Plans Abound; McCain Returns To Form; And Vindication Semantics" »

10:30 AM ET | 10-14-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Character Crossfire; The Crowd Wants More; And Palin's Rise To Prominence

Happy Friday.

With less than three weeks to go, the campaign is really starting to sizzle. Barack Obama spent yesterday hammering McCain's mortgage bailout proposal in speeches and an ad. He used what the LA Times describes as his "sharpest language yet" -- calling McCain's plan (and its shifting details) an example of "erratic and unpredictable leadership." Those keywords have been stalwarts of Obama campaign rhetoric recently, in an effort to subtly impugn McCain's temperament and age.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign spent the day focusing heavily on Obama's association with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, couching the men's relationship (they served together on two boards in Chicago) as evidence of Obama's bad judgment. Sarah Palin has been discussing Ayers since her references this weekend to Obama "palling around with terrorists." Yesterday McCain picked up the Ayers gauntlet, telling a crowd in Waukesha that Obama's downplaying his relationship with Ayers raises the question of "whether Senator Obama is telling the truth to the American people or not." And the campaign released a web video on Obama's relationship with Ayers, coincident with an RNC ad that ties Obama to unsavory Chicagoans including Ayers.

This morning the McCain camp emailed reporters another ad invoking Ayers. The new spot says Obama initially "worked with terrorist Bill Ayers" out of "blind ambition" and then "lied" about it and goes on to accuse him of "bad judgment". The ad then pivots to blame "congressional liberals" for the subprime crisis, and links that "bad judgment" to Obama's with Ayers. (Ayers' bombing activities occurred more than 20 years before the men met, and before Ayers received a PhD and became a professor. He later wrote a memoir about his time with the Weather Underground, and told the NYT in an ill-timed interview published September 11, 2001 that he thought they hadn't done enough to protest the Vietnam war.)

But the crowds at McCain's events are demanding a more explicit assault on Obama's character and judgment, and are making their angry voices heard. The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, and The Wall Street Journal (among others) all write this morning about increasing vitriol among McCain rally-goers.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Character Crossfire; The Crowd Wants More; And Palin's Rise To Prominence " »

11:00 AM ET | 10-10-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: McCain's Mortgage Plan Sinks In; Downticket Worries For The GOP; And Sartorial Stonewalling In Minnesota

Good Thursday morning to those of you who haven't taken the day to reflect and atone.

The media is starting to get a handle on the housing proposal John McCain announced during Tuesday night's debate. According to Politico's Mike Allen, a contributing factor to the general confusion over McCain's plan is that the campaign changed its language on a key provision of the proposal between Tuesday evening's press release and yesterday's more detailed description. They difference is in who eats the write-down of (literally) millions of re-financed mortgages. Allen explains:

The document posted and e-mailed by the McCain campaign on Tuesday night says at the end of its first full paragraph: "Lenders in these cases must recognize the loss that they've already suffered."

So the government would buy the mortgages at a discounted rate, reflecting the declining value of the mortgage paper.

But when McCain reissued the document on Wednesday, that sentence was missing, to the dismay of many conservatives.

That would mean the U.S. would pay face value for the troubled documents, which was the main reason Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) gave for opposing the plan.

In other words, McCain's plan proposes that the government would buy distressed mortgages from lenders at their paper value (i.e. based on the contracts the borrowers initially signed), and then re-issue them to the homeowners at a fixed rate, based on their current value -- which in many cases is less than homeowners currently owe. The cost of the write-down would thus be passed on to taxpayers.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: McCain's Mortgage Plan Sinks In; Downticket Worries For The GOP; And Sartorial Stonewalling In Minnesota" »

10:30 AM ET | 10- 9-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Coordinated Rate Cuts; Static Status Quo After Second Debate; And Palin Talks To Reporters!

Good morning.

Before we proceed to the task of rehashing last night's debate festivities...we awakened today to news of a coordinated interest rate cut in (via the New York Times) "the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank as well as those in Canada, Sweden and Switzerland." The Fed cut its funds rate half a percentage point to 1.5%, and the discount rate by the same amount, bringing it to 1.75%. More from the NYT:

The coordinated action comes as governments around the world have been trying to ease the financial turmoil that has led to bank collapses, and billions of dollars in bailouts, as well as market turmoil that has sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 1,400 points in the last five days. Yet credit markets, which businesses depend on to finance day-to-day operations have remained frozen. On Tuesday, the Fed announced a program to begin buying commercial paper.

Hell's bells. (Commercial paper explainer, for those who are wondering.)

But back to last night's debate. The general consensus among the punditocracy seems to be that neither candidate scored a clear victory or massively screwed up (Drudge headline: BORING). Indeed, in the absence of any memorable zingers, the most-discussed line this morning appears to be McCain at one point referring to Obama as "that one". (Though McCain spox Nicole Wallace told CBS this morning -- via Playbook -- that the umbrage only serves to prove that Obama-Biden is "the fussiest campaign in American history.") Analyst consensus: the tie goes to the guy with the momentum, and McCain lost last night simply for failing to shake things up. Politico's Roger Simon distills the CW:

[I]f you had to say somebody lost Tuesday night, it was McCain. Because he had to win and he did not. He is the one who has to change the current trajectory of the campaign, and he did not do that.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Coordinated Rate Cuts; Static Status Quo After Second Debate; And Palin Talks To Reporters!" »

11:08 AM ET | 10- 8-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Debate-Eve Character Hits; Politico Takes On Race; And Hsu Back In The News

Good debate morning, merry readers.

As the markets keep dropping, the stakes keep rising for our candidates -- and the campaigns get increasingly personal. The Obama campaign responded to a Sarah Palin hit on Bill Ayers with a 13-minute documentary video about McCain's involvement in the Keating Five, and is now cheerfully circulating news stories about McCain's connections with a group that had ties to the Contras back in the 1980s. And both campaigns are out with new negative ads this morning. McCain's spot calls Obama "hypocritical" when he accuses McCain of running misleading ads. Obama's ad says McCain is "running out of time" and needs to distract Americans from the country's problems by smearing Obama.

But is this really where voters want the campaign to go as the Dow sinks and world markets teeter? The NYT's Adam Nagourney posits that a continued descent into character assassination could make the candidates appear petty at a time of genuine fear for many Americans. He suggests McCain has more to lose, since he's already struggling for traction on economic issues.

Yet in shifting toward a more negative and personal message, the two campaigns risked seeming detached from the economic anxieties of voters at a time when the financial system is teetering. The risk could be especially great for Mr. McCain, who has ceded political ground to Mr. Obama during the financial crisis and has taken the more combative stance in recent days. A lacerating speech he gave Monday -- "Who is the real Barack Obama?" Mr. McCain asked -- was shown on cable television juxtaposed with images of another horrible day on Wall Street.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Debate-Eve Character Hits; Politico Takes On Race; And Hsu Back In The News " »

10:30 AM ET | 10- 7-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Global Financial Downer, The Campaign Gets Personal, And Mavericks Bite Back

Good morning. Or, anyway, the weather in DC looks like it'll be nice today. As for the financial markets, well. Here's an AP line that gave us a queasy start this morning:

Investors are realizing the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue plan won't work quickly enough to unfreeze the credit markets, and that many banks are still having difficulties gaining access to cash.

European governments spent the weekend offering lifelines to failing banks. And this morning, markets plunged both across the pond and in Asia, and as of this posting the Dow has plunged below 10,000 for the first time since 2004. On the silver lining front, all of this economic mayhem means oil prices have fallen below $90 a barrel. But on the other hand, that may be a harbinger of more bad news to come. An inauspicious beginning to the week, to be sure.

Moving on to the lighthearted business of picking our next President...things are getting personal in election-land. This weekend Sarah Palin kicked into full VP candidate attack-dog mode, invoking the specter of former Weatherman Bill Ayers, who was an associate of Obama's in Chicago. At a stop on Saturday (and subsequently repeating the sentiment elsewhere), Palin offered the following stark comparison between the GOP ticket and their opponents, portraying Obama as un-American and a threat to the nation's values.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Global Financial Downer, The Campaign Gets Personal, And Mavericks Bite Back" »

11:00 AM ET | 10- 6-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: VP Debate Hangover; House Bailout Vote Take 2; and Happy Anniversary You Crazy Kids!

Gooooood morning.

Well, the long-awaited Vice Presidential debate took place last night, and while it probably didn't change any minds, it may have (and you can take a shot of espresso -- or, the hell with it, bourbon -- for every time you read or hear this today) "stopped the bleeding" in the McCain campaign. Sarah Palin didn't directly answer the questions as asked by moderator Gwen Ifill (as she warned early in the debate that she wouldn't) but she certainly won a Michael Phelps-eque rack of gold medals for folksiness, you betcha! Joe Biden, in contrast, came across as remarkably sober and reserved, with responses so fact-laden they almost touched the earth.

But -- and this is the crucial thing -- last night was not a referendum on Biden, who merely needed to avoid making a major gaffe (he succeeded). It was a referendum on Palin. And as long as the Republican ticket is dominating the discourse, every time Palin exceeds expectations (no matter how low the bar) it provides a measure of sorely-needed good news for them. Here's the New York Times lede, courtesy of Mr. Adam Nagourney:

Gov. Sarah Palin made it through the vice-presidential debate on Thursday without doing any obvious damage to the Republican presidential ticket. By surviving her encounter with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. and quelling some of the talk about her basic qualifications for high office, she may even have done Senator John McCain a bit of good, freeing him to focus on the other troubles shadowing his campaign.

It was not a tipping point for the embattled Republican presidential ticket, the bad night that many Republicans had feared. But neither did it constitute the turning point the McCain campaign was looking for after a stretch of several weeks in which Senator Barack Obama seemed to be gaining the upper hand in the race.

NYT Television critic Alessandra Stanley wrote up the candidates' performances as performances -- which, for the large percentage of the viewing audience that does not religiously follow politics, is exactly what they were.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: VP Debate Hangover; House Bailout Vote Take 2; and Happy Anniversary You Crazy Kids!" »

10:30 AM ET | 10- 3-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Rescue Bill Passes The Senate; VP Candidates Talk Supreme Court; And A History Of Surprises

Sorry for the posting delay, folks -- NPR had some technical problems this morning.

Good morning! There's a seasonal chill in the air here in our nation's capital. And over in St. Louis they're looking at sunny skies and highs in the middle 60s on the day of the Vice Presidential debate.

But first, some legislative business. The Senate overwhelmingly approved the updated version of the economic rescue package last night with a bipartisan 74-25 vote that included Obama, McCain, and Biden among the ayes (Sen. Ted Kennedy, who is battling brain cancer, did not vote). By the time it reached the Senate floor, Secretary Paulson's 3-page proposal weighed in at an impressive 451 pages -- including tax break extensions, increased FDIC insurance, and a tweak to the AMT that did not appear in the 110 page version that the House rejected Monday. The leadership hope that the add-ons (especially the tax breaks) will make the bill more palatable to House Republicans when the bill returns there, probably on Friday, though there are also some concerns that the tax cuts will alienate a few Democrats. The New York Times explains the rhetorical opportunity the add-ons present to lawmakers who are headed back to their districts to campaign:

Instead of siding with a $700 billion bailout, lawmakers could now say they voted for increased protection for deposits at the neighborhood bank, income tax relief for middle-class taxpayers and aid for schools in rural areas where the federal government owns much of the land.

But back to the VP debate.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Rescue Bill Passes The Senate; VP Candidates Talk Supreme Court; And A History Of Surprises" »

12:00 PM ET | 10- 2-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Cameral Shift for the Bailout Bill; Palin's Debate Chops; and the Obama Campaign's Tough Radio Ads

Good morning!

The bailout -- rescue! -- plan continues to dominate the news. The package failed in the House on Monday, but Congress has not given up: the Senate will vote tonight (after Rosh Hashanah ends at sunset) on a revised version of the plan. Among the added goodies in the updated bill: extensions of some business tax breaks including renewable energy incentives; a fix to the Alternative Minimum Tax to prevent it from kicking in for some middle-class Americans; and increased deposit insurance by the FDIC. Democrats are hoping the additions will help the bill gain enough Republican support to get through the Senate and then win over the additional dozen net votes needed for the bill to pass the House, though the changes may drive away some Democrats. Senator-candidates McCain, Obama, and Biden will all return to Washington tonight to vote in favor of the bill, which will require 60 votes to pass.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow, and the Obama-Biden campaign is ramping up the expectations-lowering for Biden by eagerly circulating a bevy of news stories about Sarah Palin's surprising debate success during her gubernatorial campaign. Politico's summary:

Palin proved herself to be a comfortable and confident debater, not exactly deeply versed in the issues but unusually adept at dodging controversy and quick to take advantage of opponents' missteps. Not one to throw an unnecessary punch, Palin took a patient approach, waiting for her rivals to expose their weak points - and then striking fast.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Cameral Shift for the Bailout Bill; Palin's Debate Chops; and the Obama Campaign's Tough Radio Ads" »

10:44 AM ET | 10- 1-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: What's Next for the Bailout, Palin's Cocoon, and TV on the Radio

Good morning, and L'Shanah Tovah, merry readers. Five weeks until election day! And, you guys, I will admit to being in the tank for NPR, but Morning Edition today was extra awesome and informative. Don't fret if you missed it, though -- you can still listen online!

Lawmakers will be dipping apples in honey and casting off their sins for the next couple of days (or at least they've been given the days off in case they want to avail themselves of some introspection, prayer, and Jewish New Year traditions). As a result, we won't see any more action until at least Thursday on the economic rescue package that failed yesterday and prompted a blizzard of partisan blame-slinging from members of Congress and presidential nominees. In the meantime, ABC's George Stephanopoulos does some speculating for us about what the House leadership might do next: will the bill be jammed through as-is to stanch the market bleeding? Passed through the Senate first? Tweaked a little to woo fence-sitters? Or beefed up with plans Democrats favor and passed along party lines? One change that may be in the offing...Barack Obama and John McCain McCain both came out this morning in favor of increasing FDIC bank deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000 in the next version of the bill.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: What's Next for the Bailout, Palin's Cocoon, and TV on the Radio " »

11:02 AM ET | 09-30-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Bailout Package Moves to the House; Will the Candidates Vote On It?; and VP Nominees Get the Full Nina

Good morning, folks! It's a beautiful fall day in Washington, and we are looking forward to drying out after gray skies -- and two inches of rain -- since Thursday.

The House and Senate leadership appear to have reached an agreement on an economic bailout package over the weekend (despite House Republican Leader John Boehner reportedly calling the bill a "crap sandwich" in a meeting with his caucus). If you are fluent in legislative language, you can give it a read here. If not, you may prefer to check out the WSJ's executive summary to help you sort out your feelings on the new and improved (and 107 pages longer than the original proposal!) bill.

The House is expected to vote on the package today -- but as NPR's David Welna reports, the bill's passage still isn't quite a done deal. The President and Secretary Paulson are urging hasty approval to prevent an economic collapse, but the bill remains extremely unpopular among the American public (at least according to some polls) -- and House members are all too aware that every single seat will be on the ballot in just over a month. As Kansas Democrat Nancy Boyda told David, "Mother said there'd be days like this, and she was right." If the House passes the bailout bill, it will reach the Senate mid-week. 35 Senate seats are up for grabs in November.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Bailout Package Moves to the House; Will the Candidates Vote On It?; and VP Nominees Get the Full Nina" »

10:00 AM ET | 09-29-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: the Debate That Might Not Happen and the Rescue Plan That Isn't Rescuing Yet

Good morning y'all. Evie will be in a little later for a live fact-check of the debate (assuming there is one).

The uncertain fate of the $700 billion economic rescue plan and tonight's presidential debate dominate the headlines this morning. The debate commission says all systems go. And Obama says he'll be waiting in Oxford, Mississippi tonight. However, the McCain camp has yet to make travel arrangements, insisting his attendance is dependent on whether or not congress can agree to a rescue plan. So if you have a big debate party planned -- with cheese plates and fancy napkins and punch -- maybe you want to cue up some old primary debates on TIVO... just in case?

And as for the rescue plan? Yesterday morning as McCain was en route to DC, lawmakers announced they were close to a deal, but that fell apart when House Republicans resisted. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) took their concerns to an afternoon meeting at the White House -- pressing for a smaller government role. Along with other congressional leaders, Obama and McCain were also there, invited by Bush on Wednesday night after McCain shocked just about everyone (perhaps even his own staff) by "suspending" his campaign until a deal had been reached. The meeting got a bit wild, and, as Politico reports it, Democrats were united:

When Bush yielded early to Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D- Nev.) to speak, they yielded to Obama to speak for the assembled Democrats. And it was Obama who raised the subject of the conservative alternative and pressed Paulson on what he thought of the idea.

House Republicans felt trapped--squeezed by Treasury, House Democrats and a bipartisan coalition in the Senate. And while McCain spoke surprisingly little after asking for the meeting, he conceded that it appeared there were not the votes for the core Paulson plan without major changes.

Those assembled -- chiefly Bush -- had hoped to come out of the Cabinet Room session with, at least, a generic joint statement in support of government intervention, but after hours of what Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) called "political theater," the candidates more or less slipped out the back door without agreeing to much of anything.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: the Debate That Might Not Happen and the Rescue Plan That Isn't Rescuing Yet" »

8:16 AM ET | 09-26-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Tomorrow's Debate Remains Uncertain; Palin on Couric; and Biden Hits McCain on Iraq

Good morning!

Well, it's one day before the first scheduled presidential debate, and the candidates are spending it similarly -- first at the Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York this morning, then in a meeting about the bailout package -- sorry, structured rescue plan -- with President Bush and congressional leaders this afternoon.

But the candidates' mirrored schedules belie this week's political tension. After gratuitously pious grandstanding from both candidates yesterday on how best to respond to the crisis, tomorrow night's debate in Oxford, Mississippi is still up in the air. Obama has said he'll attend with or without his opponent, but McCain says he'll only debate tomorrow if negotiators have settled on an economic package. And bloggers and op-ed writers are taking to this story like pigs in, um, mud. If you're looking to vomit before noon, we suggest taking a sip of milk every time you read the word "gamble" as a description of McCain's call-to-arms yesterday. But start with the WP's ever-wise Dan Balz:

The standoff over the debate left both candidates in potentially awkward positions, although there is plenty of time for it to be resolved. McCain may be reluctant to climb down from his insistence that the debate be delayed until there is an agreement on a package, but he could be seen as scuttling an important event for voters eager to see the two candidates side by side. Obama, on the other hand, may look high-handed if he insists on going ahead as negotiations in Washington reach a critical moment by this weekend.

At a minimum, voters were treated again to contrasting styles of leadership Wednesday, with McCain willing to act boldly, if impulsively, to inject himself into the middle of delicate negotiations to force a solution, and Obama adopting a cooler approach designed to show calm in the midst of crisis while preferring to give long-distance encouragement to all parties in the talks.

McCain's surrogates are reportedly floating an alternate scenario: that the first Presidential debate replace next week's scheduled VP debate in St. Louis, and the VP candidates debate in Oxford at some later date.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Tomorrow's Debate Remains Uncertain; Palin on Couric; and Biden Hits McCain on Iraq" »

9:52 AM ET | 09-25-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Hostile Hill Reception for Bailout Package, McCain Aide's Freddie Ties, and Obama's Poll Gains

Good morning.

Well, the Senators in yesterday's Banking Committee hearing did not give an especially favorable reception to Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke yesterday. Dick Cheney and Josh Bolten didn't find House Republicans hopping on board too enthusiastically, either. And the candidates remain cautious as well. NPR's Scott Horsley has a story about that on Morning Edition today. But as politically unpopular as the bailout package is, it may not be nearly as unpopular as the entire federal government might be if they can't manage to do something about the economy. ABC's Jake Tapper explains that John McCain's opinion may have more sway over the outcome of the bill than he might like.

Senior Democrats on the Hill are worried that Sen. McCain, R-Ariz., will "demagogue" the bill, continue to voice opposition to it, use it to run against both Wall Street and Congress, as well as to distance himself from the Bush White House. Democrats worry McCain will not only vote against the bill, he will provide cover for other Republicans to do so, leaving Democrats holding the bag for the Bush administration's deeply unpopular proposal.

So, if McCain opposes the package he gets to maintain his maverick image, oppose an unpopular bill, and draw a clear line between his campaign and the President. Not to mention, he'd be taking a populist hard line against Wall Street ponzi schemers. But -- if Congress fails to act and the markets crash and/or the dollar plummets to near-worthlessness -- he'd also potentially be complicit in allowing the US economy to implode. No pressure though! McCain's spokesman tells Tapper that the Senator hasn't decided how he'll vote yet (although it's not 100% clear to us that either candidate will vote on the bill at all...perhaps they're waiting to hear from their respective party whips about the vote count before they schedule breaks from debate prep?) but says when McCain does weigh in he'll do it "appropriately and responsibly."

For Obama's part, the Washington Post reports that the Democrat shares economic advisers with Congressional leadership, enabling him to "exert influence behind the scenes" and create message consistency with the Democratic leadership -- leaving him less conspicuous on the issue than his Republican opponent, but subject to being tarred with the same brush as his fellow-Dems if the GOP deserts the bill and they're left stranded with it.

A panoply of news stories this morning link McCain aide Rick Davis to recently-overtaken mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Hostile Hill Reception for Bailout Package, McCain Aide's Freddie Ties, and Obama's Poll Gains" »

8:55 AM ET | 09-24-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Bailout Back-and-Forth; Palin to the UN; and Paul Endorses Baldwin

Good morning! It's one day post-equinox and already the morning light seems more autumnal here in Washington. There are 41 days to go before America votes...or at least before the 8 remaining citizens who won't be voting early. So let's get down to biz.

Big hearings today on Capitol Hill over the proposed federal bailout plan. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are both urging lawmakers to swiftly pass the package -- they're hoping for votes in both houses of Congress by Friday. But the plan is meeting resistance from liberal Democrats who want to grant bankruptcy judges the power to modify mortgage terms to prevent foreclosures, and also to allow the federal government to own shares of the companies it relieves of bad debt. The right isn't happy either: fiscally conservative Republicans hate the idea of taxpayer dollars being poured into a hastily-crafted plan to fix the so-called 'free market'. (Former Speaker Newt Gingrich gave the plan a thorough smackdown from the right on ATC yesterday afternoon.)

The major-party candidates both appear to have backed the plan, though they've expressed (remarkably similar!) reservations about Bush Administration's streamlined proposal, which calls for a huge infusion of money without Congressional oversight on how it's used. McCain has called for the addition of a bi-partisan oversight board, saying that while he respects Paulson, he is "deeply uncomfortable" entrusting him with sole responsibility over the $700 billion. McCain has also suggested capping CEO compensation at about $400,000 -- a salary equivalent to the highest paid government employee (the President). Obama is also calling for more scrutiny (professing wariness over giving the administration a "blank check"), and says the bailout should be paired with a stimulus package to help ordinary workers. Obama is also proposing spending cuts to offset some of the costs of the plan. Meanwhile, USA Today points out that the enormous costs of the bailout will likely stand in the way of some of the candidates' lofty campaign promises (though Obama insists it won't affect his health care proposal).

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Bailout Back-and-Forth; Palin to the UN; and Paul Endorses Baldwin" »

10:18 AM ET | 09-23-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: the Mother of All Bailouts on the Hill, the Stevens Trial Begins, and Alaska's 'First Dude'

Morning y'all. Evie will be back tomorrow, so you only have to put up with me for one more day.

The Treasury Department wants Congress to approve Bush's proposed $700+ billion bailout of Wall Street -- as fast as possible. Democrats widely support the plan to rescue our nation's financial institutions, but they're also pushing for more oversight of the sweeping powers the plan would give the Treasury Department. And they want a bill that grants government the ability to slice CEO salaries and upper management severance packages at firms that opt for the help. That's likely to meet with resistance from Republicans and could delay any decision until later in the week. And if it takes too long, the Washington Post reports the Treasury Department hasn't ruled out further activity in the meantime:

Sources familiar with Treasury's thinking said that the department is also continuing to monitor troubled financial firms and may have to intervene in the markets again this week, before Congress acts on the bailout, to address specific flash points.

John McCain and Barack Obama both agreed over the weekend that more oversight of the Treasury Department should be worked into the plan. And both seemed to be in a bi-partisan mood. Last night, a McCain spokeswoman said her candidate wants to delegate that oversight to a bi-partisan board -- with members like Warren Buffet, Mitt Romney, and Mike Bloomberg. And Obama said he'd want Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a Republican, to help with the "'transition process' between administrations."

But despite their overall approval of the arguably most expensive bailout in Amerian history, neither candidate shows any intention of scaling back their aggressive (read: potentially expensive) agendas for the White House. The New York Times reports this morning that McCain still wants to extend the Bush tax cuts and says he could balance the budget through restrained spending, in spite of the newest $700-billion package:

Mr. McCain also stuck by his support for allowing workers to invest a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes in stocks and bonds, an approach that Democrats call privatization and that Mr. Obama has used to suggest Mr. McCain would subject retirees to excessive market risk.

And as for Obama, while he still wants to revamp America's health care to include more people, cut college tuition, and possibly send more troops to Afghanistan, he also intends to cut taxes for the middle class -- and raise them for those making more than $250,000 a year.

Interestingly, $250,000 is also roughly the amount that Sen. Ted Stephens Stevens (R-AK) is charged with accepting in undisclosed gifts and services (AKA bribes). He allegedly received them from a man named Bill Allen -- an oil contractor on Alaska's North Slope. Jury selection for Stevens' trial begins today. He's up for reelection this fall, and the trial is being accelerated in hopes of a conclusion by November.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: the Mother of All Bailouts on the Hill, the Stevens Trial Begins, and Alaska's 'First Dude'" »

8:37 AM ET | 09-22-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Economic Finger-Pointing, the Fed's in the House, and the Road to Nowhere

Good morning y'all. Evie's still away, but don't fret: she will return.

Two weeks of financial crisis and government bailouts triggered a massive outbreak of finger-pointing both on the Hill and on the trail yesterday. Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats pointed to President Bush and blamed his push for deregulation and not enforcing regulatory laws on the books since the Clinton era. And members from both sides of the aisle aimed their fingers at the SEC for lazy oversight and at the Federal Reserve for bailing out AIG with an $85-billion price tag. Some House Republicans even referred to the government's intervention as "bailout mania."

And while Congress consults with Treasury and Fed officials about how to move forward, the candidates are in the sometimes awkward position of having to react to all of this at every campaign event, doing their best to look presidential. According to the New York Times this morning, that can be difficult:

...what is worse for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain is that they are on the sidelines and yet expected to act as if they have the best information available. They are getting updates from economic advisers and supporters on Wall Street and also near-daily briefings from Mr. Paulson and sometimes Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve. Another complication is that the candidates have to balance the political need to look boldly presidential against the danger of further agitating the markets or stoking Americans' anxiety.

For the most part, that means more finger-pointing. While stumping in Iowa yesterday, McCain set his sights on the Chairman of the SEC, Christopher Cox, saying that if he were president, he'd fire the man. But by casting himself as a candidate of change and reform on this particular issue, McCain puts himself in a delicate position -- trying to distance himself from Bush (and, for that matter, his own history of opposition to regulation) but also trying not to sound like, well, a Democrat.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Economic Finger-Pointing, the Fed's in the House, and the Road to Nowhere" »

8:32 AM ET | 09-19-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: McCain Looks for Economic Message, Obama Spanish-Language Ads Come Under Fire, and Potential Election Day Chaos

Good Morning.

Evie's out of town for the next few days, so I'm stepping in to help out.

As the credit crisis persists on Wall Street, the candidates probably aren't going to waste time talking about pigs, lipstick, or blackberries today. More likely, they'll continue toting (and fine-tuning) their solutions for the economy.

John McCain, who got himself into trouble earlier this week by suggesting the fundamentals of our economy are "strong," seems to be searching for the right response. He was an initial critic of a government bailout of AIG but has since changed his mind. That's giving Obama a chance to capitalize on what the LA Times is calling McCain's "wildly swinging rhetoric." Despite McCain's equivocation, the Wall Street Journal reports that neither candidate is necessarily in an ideal position to earn voter confidence on this issue:

Sen. Obama has had his own problems connecting with working-class voters, and the first-term senator's short time in Washington has raised doubts with voters about his ability to handle a complex crisis. But the economy has never been one of Sen. McCain's strong suits.

New polls out this morning confirm that the economy could very well decide the election. According to New York Times/CBS News poll data:

By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the top issue affecting their vote decision, and they continued to express deep pessimism about the nation's economic future. They continued to express greater confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to manage the economy, even as Mr. McCain has aggressively sought to raise doubts about it.

This same poll also suggests the so-called Palin Effect could be waning. Since her addition to the ticket, Palin has certainly invigorated the party base and attracted previously unseen audiences to McCain events. But apparently her favorability ratings have dropped, with more than 6 in 10 people surveyed saying they'd "be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over." Not only that, 75% of people polled suspected that McCain picked Palin -- not because she'd make a good Vice-President -- but because she'd help him win.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: McCain Looks for Economic Message, Obama Spanish-Language Ads Come Under Fire, and Potential Election Day Chaos" »

10:32 AM ET | 09-18-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: New Economic Ads, McCain Changes His Mind on Regulation, and Obama Exaggerates

Good morning.

The nation's financial turmoil continues with an $85 billion government bailout of insurance giant AIG and new home construction at its lowest levels since 1991. As a result, the candidates are all but forced to talk about an actual policy issue: what to do about the economy.

Barack Obama this morning released an unusual two-minute ad (the campaign says it will be airing "nationally and in battleground states") in which the candidate says Washington hasn't lived up to its responsibilities. Obama admits that "much of this campaign has been consumed by petty attacks and distractions" and then lists his economic policy goals: middle class tax breaks; increased regulation of Wall Street; reduced dependence on foreign oil; lobbying reform; and ending the war in Iraq (more details are here). He finishes the ad by calling for and end to "bitter partisanship" and the creation of "a new spirit of unity and shared responsibility"

McCain has a new economy-focused ad this morning as well. It's a regular 30-second spot in which he vows to "reform Wall Street and fix Washington" and says Obama only offers "talk and taxes." (The campaign's press release backs up the taxes claim with news links about Obama's plans for a windfall profits tax on oil companies, and to roll back the Bush tax cuts for those making more than $250,000 a year) The voiceover then promises: "change is coming." (You can read more about McCain's economic plan here.)

McCain is in a bit of a pickle with the Wall Street situation, given his longstanding support of the deregulation policies that have contributed heavily to the recent meltdown. The WP's Michael Shear has the background:

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: New Economic Ads, McCain Changes His Mind on Regulation, and Obama Exaggerates" »

10:00 AM ET | 09-17-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Fuss Over Fundamentals; Independent Groups Picking Up Steam; and Palin Resists Troopergate Investigation

Good morning.

Wall Street's troubles continue to dominate the newsiverse, and the candidates are endeavoring to seem presidentially facile and authoritative on the subject.

The Obama campaign has released an ad repeating (several times) McCain's statement from yesterday morning that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" over what we can only describe as 80s cop-movie chase music paired with blaring bad-news headlines. Meanwhile, McCain made the morning show rounds and repeated his clarification from yesterday: the economy is in crisis, but the fundamentals of the economy are the American workers, who are the best in the world. And he called for a 9/11-style investigatory commission to look into the root causes of the meltdown. (For a full recap of yesterday's rhetorical crossfire, NPR's David Greene and Scott Horsley have got you covered.)

The campaign battlefield finally appears to be expanding to include the 527 groups both candidates decried last spring (feels like the Jurassic period now, doesn't it?). NPR's Peter Overby reported yesterday that Obama's cavalry may finally be trotting into town (though not galloping just yet). Indeed, the independent expenditures are ramping up on both sides -- from the anti-McCain Brave New PAC to the anti-Obama Vets for Freedom and far beyond. Peter and Will Evans from the Center for Investigative Reporting follow the independent ad drops in real time on the Secret Money Blog.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Fuss Over Fundamentals; Independent Groups Picking Up Steam; and Palin Resists Troopergate Investigation" »

10:00 AM ET | 09-16-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Hot Mess on Wall Street, Rove Makes News, and Tina Fey's Palin

Good morning.

And, yikes. Drowning out Ike's devastating damage in Texas: a string of Wall Street meltdowns. Our friends at NPR's Planet Money will do a much better job than we ever could of explaining this morning's messy financial news, but here are the Cliff's: Lehman Bros. has declared bankruptcy after the Fed declined to bail them out; Bank of America is buying Merrill Lynch on the cheap ($50.3 billion...doesn't sound cheap to you and me, but if they'd made that offer to Merrill a year ago...); and AIG is undergoing a radical restructuring to stay afloat.

The campaigns have each released statements drawing on their standard messages.

Obama on why the crisis means it's time for a change:

I certainly don't fault Senator McCain for these problems, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. It's a philosophy we've had for the last eight years -- one that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. It's a philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise, and one that says we should just stick our heads in the sand and ignore economic problems until they spiral into crises.

McCain on the need for reform:

It is essential for us to make sure that the U.S. remains the pre-eminent financial market of the world. This will be a highest priority of my Administration. In order to do this, major reform must be made in Washington and on Wall Street. We cannot tolerate a system that handicaps our markets and our banks and places at risk the savings of hard-working Americans and investors. The McCain-Palin Administration will replace the outdated and ineffective patchwork quilt of regulatory oversight in Washington and bring transparency and accountability to Wall Street. We will rebuild confidence in our markets and restore our leadership in the financial world.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Hot Mess on Wall Street, Rove Makes News, and Tina Fey's Palin" »

10:00 AM ET | 09-15-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Ad Warfare Returns, How Palin's Playin', and the Candidates on Service

Good morning!

Well, the 9/11 crossfire hiatus was nice while it lasted. This morning, both campaigns are up with new ads. (Though actually the new McCain ad was unannounced to the media and seems like it may have gone up during yesterday's supposed moratorium).

The nonpartisan Factcheck.org, perhaps still smarting from the McCain camp's misleading use of its own findings, was quick off the blocks to criticize McCain's latest effort. The new ad, called "Disrespectful," is another effort to portray VP nominee Sarah Palin as a victim of a cruel and desperate Obama.

The new McCain-Palin ad "Disrespectful" begins like an earlier ad we criticized, with its reference to Barack Obama's celebrity, but then goes down new paths of deception. It takes quotes from news organizations and uses them out of context in an effort to portray Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, as unfairly attacking Sarah Palin and making sexist remarks. We've long been a critic of candidates (Obama included) usurping the credibility of independent news organizations and peddling false quotes, and this ad is particularly egregious.

One wonders as well how much this victimhood schtick will really end up benefiting the GOP ticket. As hawkish as Palin's foreign policy language seems to be, if the campaign continues to paint every criticism of her (even legitimate ones like the Obama camp's pushback on her Bridge to Nowhere position) as "disrespectful" it's bound to start sparking questions -- sure to be dismissed as sexist -- about whether she's tough enough for the international policy stage. (There is plenty of appalling and disrespectful material about Palin swirling around the blogosphere and the commentariat -- but it doesn't come from the Obama campaign, and it's not the stuff referenced in "Disrespectful.")

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Ad Warfare Returns, How Palin's Playin', and the Candidates on Service" »

11:00 AM ET | 09-12-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: A Day of Campaign Civility; the Democrats' Drama; and Girl-on-Girl Crime

Good morning.

Today marks the seventh anniversary of the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks. As you are all too aware, that day utterly changed the emotional and political landscape of this country -- ultimately leading to a conceptual war and two physical wars; an enormous resurgence of patriotism; a new cabinet-level department; a color-coded alert system; and the massive proliferation of 3-oz. toiletry bottles. The presidential candidates have pulled their ads for the day and will mark the anniversary with a joint visit to Ground Zero in New York in a symbolically apolitical move that is, of course, thoroughly political. (And that comes on the heels of some of the most nakedly political crossfire we've seen this year.)

The fight against terrorism dominated U.S. politics for the first two elections after the attacks, with victories for tough-National Security Republicans in the 2002 midterms and the 2004 Presidential election (remember those allegorical wolves we were talking about yesterday?). But, as the WP's Michael Abramowitz writes this morning, in 2008 -- after seven years without an attack on U.S. soil -- the issue has "lost prominence":

Both candidates touched on the subject only briefly in their convention speeches and are emphasizing the economy, change for Washington and other issues on the stump.

The shift reflects a nod to the changing attention of the electorate. At this time in 2002 and 2004, about a quarter of all Americans polled by Gallup called terrorism or national security the country's top problem. That dropped to 16 percent in 2006, and now 4 percent of those polled deem those issues the most important the nation must confront.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: A Day of Campaign Civility; the Democrats' Drama; and Girl-on-Girl Crime" »

11:00 AM ET | 09-11-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Women Under the Microscope; Lipstick Wars; and a Protest Vote Call To Action

Happy Wednesday morning, Vox Politicians.

The McCain campaign's lady bounce is still a hot topic among the chattering classes today, with a new NBC/WSJ poll appearing to confirm yesterday's ABC/WP findings that McCain has gained female support -- and general enthusiasm for his candidacy -- since selecting Sarah Palin as his running-mate. The NBC/WSJ numbers also had some good news for Obama, showing increased voter confidence in his ability to be commander-in-chief, and growth among voters' ability to identify with him.

The WP's Anne Kornblut provides this explanation for the uptick in female support for the GOP ticket:

Several senior officials in both parties said they think Palin's attraction is the result, in part, of a generally negative mood among some female voters this year, first, as Clinton faced a "boys' club" mentality in the Democratic primaries and then as Palin faced intense questioning, much of it highly personal, after McCain named her as his running mate.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Women Under the Microscope; Lipstick Wars; and a Protest Vote Call To Action" »

11:00 AM ET | 09-10-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Shifting White Women, the Battle of the Biographies, and the Pros and Cons of Ditching Public Funds

Morning, folks.

A new national poll from ABC News/Washington Post shows McCain and Obama in a statistical tie (Obama 47, McCain 46). As we've caveated ad nauseam, national poll top-lines aren't that useful...but there's gold in them thar internals. Enthusiasm for McCain has increased dramatically since he selected Sarah Palin as his running-mate, and Obama's advantage on "change" has eroded from a 32-point lead in June to a (still-significant) 12. But this is the shift that's got jaws flapping around DC this morning...via ABC's Gary Langer:

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Shifting White Women, the Battle of the Biographies, and the Pros and Cons of Ditching Public Funds" »

10:00 AM ET | 09- 9-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: McCain's Bounce, Palin Agrees to an Interview, and Olbermann and Matthews Reassigned

Good morning!

It seems the widely-viewed GOP convention has paid off with a polling bounce for John McCain. A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows McCain with a 50-46 lead over Barack Obama (remember him?) -- in contrast to McCain's 7-point deficit just prior to the RNC. Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls give McCain a tiny lead as well. Post-convention numbers don't always indicate a march to victory (remember Dukakis's 17 point advantage after the 1988 DNC?). But the new numbers give McCain his first lead in the RealClearPolitics average in months, and that's symbolic if not necessarily predictive.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: McCain's Bounce, Palin Agrees to an Interview, and Olbermann and Matthews Reassigned" »

10:00 AM ET | 09- 8-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: First '08 Swift Boat Pulls into Port, Romney Rumors, and a Plague of Faux-Veeps

Happy Friday! We're motivating towards Denver, so this will be a shortie.

Over at Secret Money Blog, NPR's Peter Overby takes a closer look at an independent ad bashing Barack Obama for his ties to former Weatherman Bill Ayers. This is an issue that was hashed and re-hashed during the primary, so we'll let you read-in elsewhere on the actual -- tenuous -- connection (this is a good place to start). More interestingly, this is the first real swift-boat style attack of the season, and it comes in spite of both campaigns' efforts to keep independent groups out of the character assassination business. Peter talked to Christian Pinkston from the American Issues Project, the group that made the Ayers ad. Pinkston says they're just getting started:

Pinkston says AIP has 167 pages of documentation for the ad. When I asked why they picked this topic for the ad, he said, "This is the first one."

Stay tuned to Secret Money today for an explanation of Huffington Post's suggestion that the ad may not even be legal.

In blatant gossip-mongering, via Mike Allen -- Time's Mark Halperin reported last night that McCain is picking Romney:

TIME's Mark "The Page" Halperin woke up reporters and operatives from Sedona to Chinatown to the Jersey Shore with his 11 p.m. blockbuster -- "2 GOP Sources: It's Romney: Two Republicans close to the situation say McCain has apparently settled on Mitt Romney as his running mate. Two additional GOP sources say McCain had not offered the slot to anyone as of Thursday night, and that he could still change his mind."

MARK BETTER BE RIGHT -- One official e-mails: 'I was woken up three times ... (Thanks, Mark Halperin).'

Our minds would be officially boggled if McCain chose Romney, given the open contempt he showed for him during the GOP primary debates (did he learn nothing from the Kerry-Edwards animus?). But maybe time heals all wounds.

And finally, a little unanticipated hilarity based on the Obama camp's texting plan...Politico's Carrie Budoff Brown reports a proliferation of faux-Obama VP texts incited by the likes of Howard Stern and Wonkette. Pretend running-mates so far include (in order of viability) Michael Phelps, Suri Cruise, Mickey Mouse, and Eliot Spitzer.

You'll hear from my BFFs at NPR election central if news breaks...otherwise, no sleep 'til Denver!

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 08-22-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Poll Internals Keep it Lively, McCain's Economic Gaffe, and Remembering Stephanie Tubbs Jones

Good morning. Our phone remains sadly devoid of any Obama VP text messages. We will bravely soldier on.

Two more polls today (NYT/CBS and NBC/WSJ) show McCain gaining to within the margin of error with Obama -- commensurate with what we saw yesterday from Q-pac and LAT/Bloomberg.

We've yapped ad infinitum about the meaninglessness of national horserace numbers (and the NYT itself states -- in its national poll writeup -- that a head-to-head national matchup "is not predictive this early"). So we'll give you some internals, which are much more interesting: NBC/WSJ finds that the vast majority of voters (nearly 8 in 10) think McCain would stick with President Bush's policies, and only 18% think the country is headed in the right direction. NYT/CBS finds a less dramatic association between McCain and Bush (slightly less than half) but finds that voters are most worried about economic issues -- an area in which they claim more confidence in Obama.

Given that information, why is McCain gaining ground?

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Poll Internals Keep it Lively, McCain's Economic Gaffe, and Remembering Stephanie Tubbs Jones " »

10:00 AM ET | 08-21-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: More Rampant Veepstaking, National Polls Tighten, and Haircuts for the Homeless

Good morning!

It appears that not much has changed during our brief absence...the polls are still close, the ads are still negative, and pundits are still atwitter with VP speculation. (CBS links 28 veep-related stories this morning. Yowsers.)

In a town hall meeting in North Carolina last night, Obama seemed to narrow the field slightly when he referred to his hypothetical VP as "he"...which would rule out Kathleen Sebelius. Elsewhere, apparently Mrs. Bayh has had her hair and nails done, Biden says "I'm not the guy," and Mark Warner lays it on thick for Tim Kaine. We suspect our text messages won't arrive until Friday night (a Saturday rally in Springfield, IL is rumored to be the VP rollout), so we have another 60-ish hours to stew.

On the GOP side, Jonathan Martin says Lieberman is being vetted -- another possible pro-choice pick to send El Rushbo into a further tizzy. But the Washington Times says prominent GOPers are working overtime to talk McCain out of a pro-choice pick. (As Sean pointed out this morning, the announcement that Lieberman will speak at the RNC could put a damper on some of the Lieberman speculation.) McCain will appear on Laura Ingraham's radio show this morning...no doubt he'll have to face down some tough questions on the subject.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: More Rampant Veepstaking, National Polls Tighten, and Haircuts for the Homeless " »

10:00 AM ET | 08-20-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Obama Camp Smacks Down Corsi, Preparing for Saddleback, and Predicting the Bounce

Happy Friday! Make that a VERY happy Friday for Nastia and Shawn. Congratulations, ladies!

Yesterday evening the Obama campaign struck back hard at Jerome Corsi's much-hyped critical book Obama Nation with this 41-page rebuttal PDF that they emailed to reporters. The document, titled "Unfit for Publication" nods to Corsi's 2004 attack tome against John Kerry, called Unfit for Command. The message: that the Obama campaign will not shrink from responding to swift-boat-style attacks as the Kerry campaign did (arguably costing Kerry the Presidency). The PDF not only makes point-by-point refutations of the "factual inaccuracies" in the book, it also takes pains to discredit Corsi himself, citing loony conspiracy theories about 9/11 and a looming "North American Union," as well as a range of anti-Catholic and anti-Muslim sentiments that the author has espoused on the internet and elsewhere. It's a decisive counterattack from a campaign that has lately been accused of pulling punches. The opening statement says it all:

Once again, bigoted fringe author Jerome Corsi is trying to make money off of an election, spinning garbage as journalism and relying on the right-wing echo chamber pump up sales. Make no mistake: "The Obama Nation: is nothing but rehashed lies.

McCainwise, the GOP nominee-to-be has been making the most of his Obamaless week. As images trickle down of Obama eating sno-cones and bodysurfing, McCain keeps hammering his tough stance on the Georgia conflict. Obama's visit to his grandmother was long-planned, and he has issued frequent statements on Georgia. And -- let's face it -- neither of these guys is actually President yet. (Not to mention that the REAL President leaves for vacation today too.) And surely the upcoming conventions will drown out this week's foibles. But, well...it's a tough contrast for Obama.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Obama Camp Smacks Down Corsi, Preparing for Saddleback, and Predicting the Bounce " »

10:00 AM ET | 08-15-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Politicizing Georgia, McCain Considering Pro-Choice Veep, and A Closer Look at Corsi

Good morning, all.

The WSJ Op-Ed page is a veritable cornucopia of interesting stuff today:

John McCain keeps up his hardline pro-Georgia rhetoric, reiterating that "We Are All Georgians":

The world has learned at great cost the price of allowing aggression against free nations to go unchecked. A cease-fire that holds is a vital first step, but only one. With our allies, we now must stand in united purpose to persuade the Russian government to end violence permanently and withdraw its troops from Georgia.

This op-ed comes hot on the heels of the announcement that he's sending Senate colleagues Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT) to Georgia to report back on the conflict there.

The McCain and Obama campaigns have parried over the proper response to the Georgia crisis, with each trying to appear statesmanlike (McCain: tough; Obama: diplomatic) but apolitical...as their surrogates wield the hatchets about the other side's position.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Politicizing Georgia, McCain Considering Pro-Choice Veep, and A Closer Look at Corsi" »

10:17 AM ET | 08-14-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Ralph Reed for McCain, Warner to Keynote DNC, and...Just Ew.

The DNC and Obama campaign email machines are going to town this morning on the news, first reported by the AJC, that Ralph Reed is a member of the "McCain Victory 2008 Team" and that he sent out an invitation to a McCain fundraiser in Atlanta later this month. Reed is the former head of the Christian Coalition (and novelist!) whose bid to be lieutentant Governor of Georgia fell apart because of his ties to corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff. But here's where it gets really weird: the Abramoff relationship came to light during a lobbying scandal investigation spearheaded by the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, which was then chaired by John McCain. And McCain often invokes his leadership in the Abramoff investigation as an example of his toughness on corruption and Washington cronyism. So...what the? Reed tells the WSJ that he is not "a host or a co-chair but rather a run-of-the-mill attendee" of the fundraiser, and that he is willing to let bygones be bygones with McCain. So far McCain hasn't clarified whether the feeling is mutual...but if so this revelation probably won't help his eroding maverick brand.

McCain was on NPR's Morning Edition today talking about the conflict in Georgia, about which, the NYT observes, he has taken a notably harder line than Obama, Bush, or most other world leaders. He also told host Renee Montagne that he's not "sending a negative message" with his campaign. Um. Are you sure?

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Ralph Reed for McCain, Warner to Keynote DNC, and...Just Ew." »

12:01 PM ET | 08-13-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Clinton's Campaign Deconstructed, The Dems' Registration Push, and The March of the Obamacans

Good morning.

Joshua Green's much-hyped Atlantic piece detailing the internal sturm und drang of the Hillary Clinton camapign (complete with a raft of leaked internal memos) arrived online last night, and it's got more juicy deets than your average US Weekly. Or anyway, it does for those of us who lapped up every twist and turn of this crazy primary season like starved wolves.

Green's thesis:

Above all, this irony emerges: Clinton ran on the basis of managerial competence--on her capacity, as she liked to put it, to "do the job from Day One." In fact, she never behaved like a chief executive, and her own staff proved to be her Achilles' heel. What is clear from the internal documents is that Clinton's loss derived not from any specific decision she made but rather from the preponderance of the many she did not make. Her hesitancy and habit of avoiding hard choices exacted a price that eventually sank her chances at the presidency.

Clinton's chief strategist Mark Penn takes a bit of a beating for being a divisive figure within the campaign and for pitching some sleazy (and ultimately rejected) ideas to attack Obama. But Penn also earns a measure of redemption for having a prescient understanding of Clinton's base: "women, lower and middle class voters" and for pushing a more aggressive strategy in Iowa, where Clinton ultimately came in third. (The article describes Clinton fuming after a meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board, who asked her why her campaign was so passive).

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Clinton's Campaign Deconstructed, The Dems' Registration Push, and The March of the Obamacans " »

11:27 AM ET | 08-12-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Clinton Memo Dump Preview, McCain as Manager, and Costas Gets Tough

Good morning, all. It's shaping up to be a refreshingly temperate day for all the Superman fans in our nation's capital.

The Democrats have revealed the list of keynote speakers at the convention in Denver later this month. Monday night will feature Michelle Obama in primetime; Tuesday will be Hillary Clinton; Wednesday will be the VP Candidate (still a mystery, though the campaign is pushing a sign-up to be text-messaged when the decision is announced); Thursday, of course, Obama himself.

HRC's placement as the keynoter may do some damage-control with her still-roiling base, though there remains no firm resolution to last week's speculation about whether her name will be placed into nomination in Denver. And Clinton will stay in the news this week as The Atlantic's Joshua Green spills juicy details from her campaign's internal memos in a much-anticipated curtain-raiser. One remarkable (discarded) tactic suggested by chief strategist Mark Penn: to paint Obama as a foreigner. From Mike Allen's Politico preview of the story:

The Penn memo suggesting that the campaign target Obama's "lack of American roots" said in part: "All of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared towards showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light.

"Save it for 2050. ... Every speech should contain the line you were born in the middle of America American to the middle class in the middle of the last century. And talk about the basic bargain as about the deeply American values you grew up with, learned as a child and that drive you today. Values of fairness, compassion, responsibility, giving back

"Let's explicitly own 'American' in our programs, the speeches and the values. He doesn't. Make this a new American Century, the American Strategic Energy Fund. Let's use our logo to make some flags we can give out. Let's add flag symbols to the backgrounds."

Continue reading "Monday Morning: Clinton Memo Dump Preview, McCain as Manager, and Costas Gets Tough" »

11:46 AM ET | 08-11-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Clintons Back in the News, McCain Puts out Fires, and Who's Your Alamo?

Happy Friday!

Barack Obama is heading to Hawaii to take a long-awaited vacation and visit his grandmother. He's leaving without dropping any tantalizing clues about his choice of running-mate -- though as long as we're all still speculating, we might as well read this LA Times analysis of some of the minefields both candidates face with their VP options.

While we're awaiting Obama's return we'll just have to talk some more about the Clintons. Hillary Clinton stumps for Obama in Nevada today. There's still no official word on whether her name will be placed into nomination at the convention, though the WP's Anne Kornblut reports that Obama and Clinton aides are working overtime to figure out a way to appease Clinton's still-ardent supporters without causing some kind of distracting scene. (Senator Clinton might call it a "catharsis." Tomato, tomato. Media catnip. However you want to describe it.) And news trickled down last night that as part of the internecine negotiations, former President Bill Clinton has accepted a speaking slot on Wednesday of DNC week, the same night as the Vice-Presidential candidate's speech. (Yes, that's two nights of Clintons!)

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Clintons Back in the News, McCain Puts out Fires, and Who's Your Alamo?" »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 8-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Clinton's Back, McCain's Bad Press, and Barr and Nader on the Ballot

Good morning.

Thought you'd heard the last of Hillary Clinton's candidacy? Think again. As NPR's Michael Olson posted last night, a YouTube video of HRC talking to supporters at a recent California fundraiser is currently making the rounds. In it, Clinton indicates that it would be okay with her if her supporters submitted her name for the first round of balloting at the Democratic Convention. She tells the group:

There's this incredible pent-up desire, and I think that people want to feel like, okay, it's a catharsis, we're here, we did it, and everybody get behind Senator Obama...no decisions have been made. And so we are trying to work all this through with the DNC and with the Obama camapign.

After the video started circulating, the Obama and Clinton forces released a rather vague joint statement about having a "fully unified" party and making sure that everyone's voices are "respected". What does that mean exactly? It's unclear. Time's Karen Tumulty writes that Clinton's show of support for Obama (their joint appearance in Unity, NH, and her upcoming appearances on his behalf in Florida and Nevada) belie the residual tensions from the spring's bruising primary.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Clinton's Back, McCain's Bad Press, and Barr and Nader on the Ballot" »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 7-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Bundlers Under the Microscope, Gaps in the Energy Debate, and the DNC Suggests a McCain Veep

Goooooood morning.

It's all about the Benjamins today, with looks at campaign fundraising from the WP, NYT, and McClatchy. The Times partially debunks the Obama campaign theme (and public-financing sidestep rationalization) of reliance on small donors. While a huge percentage of Obama's donations are less than $100, about a third of his haul came in chunks of $1000 or more. Which is really more math than news (he has, after all, raised $340 million...that would be a lot of $100 checks), but nonetheless is worth noting. The NYT adds that Obama is relying on a familiar cast of characters to gather his larger donations:

Despite his reputation as a newcomer, many of his bundlers are Democratic Party stalwarts, including people who were some of the top fund-raisers for Senator John Kerry in 2004. At least 58 of them appear to have personally made more than $100,000 in contributions to federal candidates and committees over the last decade. Updated bundler lists released recently by the McCain and Obama campaigns show that they have similar numbers of high-dollar fund-raisers.

Combine the big bundlers and the small donors and you've got a pretty powerful fundraising force.

Elsewhere, McClatchy adds to the growing snowball about the seemingly-outsized donations to McCain and the RNC from a Hess office manager and her husband. And the Post takes a closer look at one McCain bundler who seems to be raising money from unlikely sources.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: Bundlers Under the Microscope, Gaps in the Energy Debate, and the DNC Suggests a McCain Veep" »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 6-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Obama's Energy Shifts, McCain's Oily Donations, and Penn Sticks To His Guns

Top o' the morning.

Tuesday is still all about energy. Barack Obama continues his tour flogging his new plan with two stops in Ohio today (and a much-speculated-upon empty block of time in Indiana this afternoon). Obama's energy plan calls for (among other things) implementing a "windfall profits tax" on oil companies and using the revenue to deliver rebate checks to families; giving sizeable tax breaks to Americans who purchase high-efficiency vehicles; setting ambitious goals for achieving energy efficiency over the next two decades; and tapping the nation's strategic oil reserve for short term gas-price relief. The Obama campaign also released a second contrast ad in two days, touting Obama's new plan and dinging McCain's energy policy.

The idea of tapping into the reserve, along with Obama's recent comments that he might be open to expanding offshore drilling as part of an energy overhaul, place Obama closer in line with public opinion. The LA Times puts it thus:

Those shifts by Obama are indicative of the pressure that politicians of both parties -- but especially Democrats -- are under to develop specific, short-term energy proposals in the face of rising costs. Against that backdrop, politicians risk looking insensitive if they tout only solutions that could take years to hit the pump, such as Obama's plan to develop hybrid cars that can travel 150 miles on a gallon of gasoline.

Which is riskier, shifting positions (at the risk of being called a flip-flopper) or being out of line with voters on an issue that polls have consistently placed at the top of their list?

John McCain, meanwhile, is battling awkward evidence that Hess oil company employees went on a donating spree after his own June reversal on offshore oil drilling.

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Obama's Energy Shifts, McCain's Oily Donations, and Penn Sticks To His Guns " »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 5-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: The Positives of Negativity, the Battle for the Old Dominion, and Michigan and Florida Back In the Fold

Good morning all, and happy birthday to Barack Obama (47) and Helen Thomas (88).

In the absence of compelling political news over the weekend, the newsiverse has turned its attention to chin-stroking on the state of the race. Newsweek post-mortems the Respectful Campaign (2008-2008), noting that while attack politics tends to work, it has its drawbacks:

While voters say they dislike negative campaigning, polls show they are influenced by it. Still, the constant tit-for-tat squabbling between the candidates is dispiriting and so convoluted than even political junkies have trouble keeping score. And it has a way of distorting the candidates and making them seem meaner or more robotlike than they actually are.

The WSJ writes that on balance, the negative turn in the campaign has been a successful gambit for John McCain, who spent last week driving the media message rather than just reacting to Obama -- even if that message often seemed to be that McCain's negative attacks were sprurious.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: The Positives of Negativity, the Battle for the Old Dominion, and Michigan and Florida Back In the Fold" »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 4-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: Playing the Race Card, Celeb Semantics, and the Skinniness Gap

Good morning, and happy Friday.

After several months in the wings, race moved to center-stage in the presidential campaign yesterday when the McCain campaign accused Obama of "playing the race card...from the bottom of the deck" after Obama told audiences in Missouri Wednesday that he would be portrayed as a "risky" candidate because he doesn't "look like all those other Presidents on the dollar bills." We'll leave the nitpicking over what he meant by "other Presidents" to other blogs, and focus on the bigger implication: that Obama is claiming the McCain camp and others in the GOP are using racially divisive tactics to scare voters away from him. The Obama camp has denied that Obama considers McCain's tactics race-baiting, but hasn't really offered up an alternative explanation for what he meant.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: Playing the Race Card, Celeb Semantics, and the Skinniness Gap " »

10:00 AM ET | 08- 1-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: A Referendum Within A Referendum; McCain Still Finessing Tax Issues; and HRC Will Speak Tuesday at DNC

Good morning.

This morning's political news can perhaps be best-characterized as a referendum on McCain's attempt to paint the election as a referendum on Obama. Yesterday's "Celeb" ad threw more fuel on that fire and has liberal op-ed writers' drawers in a twist wondering where John "Respectful Campaign" McCain disappeared to. Even (disgruntled) former McCain strategist John Weaver hopped on the bandwagon, telling Marc Ambinder that the ad is "childish" and "tomfoolery." The Obama campaign is taking a scolding line as well with this response ad that shows footage of McCain standing next to President Bush and accuses him of the "same old politics, same failed policies." (Hey, that's kind of negative too...) Obama himself told an audience in Missouri:

John McCain and the Republicans, they don't have any new ideas, that's why they're spending all their time talking about me.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: A Referendum Within A Referendum; McCain Still Finessing Tax Issues; and HRC Will Speak Tuesday at DNC " »

10:00 AM ET | 07-31-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: McCain Under Fire, Obama's Alleged Ego, and a Ted Stevens Ripple Effect?

Happy hump day, gentle readers.

Oppo-emailers at the DNC and Obama HQ are having an easy day of it. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times write up McCain's recent pivot to negative camapign tactics against opponent Barack Obama. The Post focuses on the dustup over the cancelled military hospital visit in Germany, and concludes that the McCain camp's repeated accusations that the stop was cancelled because Obama couldn't bring photographers "lack evidence." The Times looks at the bigger picture of recent negative ads and McCain's new not-angry-just-disappointed tone, and says "some Republicans" think it's a risky tactic for McCain to stay in a reactive posture and allow the election to be a referendum on Obama. The NYT visits the meme on its editorial page as well, accusing McCain of taking the "low-road express." In an article titled It's All About Obama, Politico writes that "McCain's bitterness, frustration and near-obsession with Obama are on plain display." And the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page hits McCain from the right on his claim over the weekend that "nothing's off the table" with regard to Social Security reform -- including raising the payroll tax cap. Tough morning! What was that Media Matters was just saying about the press's love affair with McCain?

A hint of balance comes from the Post's Dana Milbank, who zings Obama thusly...

Barack Obama has long been his party's presumptive nominee. Now he's becoming its presumptuous nominee.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: McCain Under Fire, Obama's Alleged Ego, and a Ted Stevens Ripple Effect?" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-30-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Tim Kaine in the Spotlight, Evangelicals Warn Against Romney, and Polls by M.C. Escher

G'day.

In continuing Vice-Presidential speculation Politico and the WP reported late yesterday that VA Gov. (and Terry McAuliffe recommendation) Tim Kaine is on the shortest of lists to be Barack Obama's running mate. From Politico:

Kaine's circle is "under the impression that he's being looked at very, very seriously but he's not the only one," said one of the two Democrats close to Kaine.

"The third floor is definitely focused on this in a real way," said the other Virginia Democrat, referring to Kaine's Capitol offices. "They've been talking about what would happen if he had to leave; they're very keyed up on it."

Kaine has a lot going for him: popularity in a red state that has a chance of turning blue in November; fluent Spanish and cred in the Latino community; appeal to Catholic voters...and he suits the "outsider" criteria Obama outlined on Meet The Press this weekend. But as an almost-one-term Governor it's unclear that Kaine has the foreign policy resume to alleviate voters' concerns about Obama's lack of experience.

This chatter seems awfully leaky coming from Obama's usually-airtight campaign. Is someone talking way out of school?

Continue reading "Tuesday Morning: Tim Kaine in the Spotlight, Evangelicals Warn Against Romney, and Polls by M.C. Escher" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-29-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: McCain Stays Negative; Veepstakes Back To the Fore; and New GOP Fundraising Tactics

Happy Monday morning, folks.

After struggling to gain traction with the debate over the surge last week, John McCain's campaign found what they consider to be a meatier issue to use against Barack Obama: his cancelled visit to injured troops at Landstuhl hospital in Germany last week. Over the weekend, the two campaigns filled reporters' inboxes with crossfire over the issue, much of which was back-and-forth over this McCain ad called "Troops." It's pretty snarky to accuse Obama of only wanting to visit the wounded servicemembers for a photo-op and then bailing after "the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras." The Obama campaign's counter-claim is that the very reason he didn't go to the hospital was because the visit would be considered a photo-op and he didn't want to politicize the troops. (Irony!)

The ad is McCain's toughest hit yet on Obama's character, and the claims in it may or may not sway voters (for one thing, as many in the blogosphere have pointed out, it accuses Obama of ignoring the troops while showing footage of him playing basketball with, um...troops). But on the other hand, if everyone is writing about McCain's ad -- even if they're tearing it apart -- they're by definition NOT writing about Obama's 200,000-person crowd in Berlin, or Nouri al-Maliki's agreement with Obama on a US troop withdrawal timeline, or McCain's variety of gaffes last week. So if nothing else, the ad provides a useful distraction.

Meanwhile, the chattering classes are back to rampant veep speculation.

Continue reading "Monday Morning: McCain Stays Negative; Veepstakes Back To the Fore; and New GOP Fundraising Tactics" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-28-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: McCain's Rough Week; No Bounce for Barack; and McAuliffe Changes His Tune

Happy Friday, everyone!

And no one is probably happier than John McCain that this week is almost over (including us, and we are spending the weekend at the beach). The week has been a tough slog for the GOP nominee-to-be, with a string of bad-news stories, media eye-rolling, and unfortunate visual contrasts with Barack Obama's bombastic overseas swing. The NYT's Elisabeth Bumiller says it all with this description of a moment in Pennsylvania on Wenesday:

"I am again deeply disappointed that Senator Obama would not recognize the fact that the surge has succeeded," Mr. McCain said in typical, now-daily comments before the refrigerated case of cheese in Bethlehem, Pa.

That's right: the refrigerated case of cheese. That was on the day Barack Obama visited Yad Vashem and met with Israeli leaders about the peace process and Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Continue reading "Friday Morning: McCain's Rough Week; No Bounce for Barack; and McAuliffe Changes His Tune" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-25-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Obama to Berlin, McCain Goes Domestic, and No Hula Hoop Photo Ops

Good morning, all. The nation's capital is drying out after a 2.5-inch deluge last night that also brought a much-needed break in the heat. Hallelujah!

Barack Obama departed Israel early this morning after a pre-dawn visit to the Western Wall where he was warmly greeted by a few dozen fans but loudly heckled by one man who repeatedly yelled "Jerusalem is not for sale." The Washington Post sums up the full Israel/Ramallah swing thusly:

Sen. Barack Obama stepped gingerly through the intractable politics of the Middle East on Wednesday, offering resolute support for Israel's security, warning that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a "game-changing" event for the world, and pledging to make peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians one of his highest priorities if he becomes president.

Continue reading "Thursday Morning: Obama to Berlin, McCain Goes Domestic, and No Hula Hoop Photo Ops" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-24-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: McCain's Gaffes, Obama in the Holy Land, and Novak Punk'd

Good day.

John McCain can't catch a break this week. He seemed to be getting some traction criticizing Barack Obama's original opposition to the troop surge in Iraq (and continued tepidness about how much of the progress there can be attributed to the surge). Katie Couric's tough interview with Obama on the subject last night could have provided McCain with another opportunity to draw a distinction on Iraq strategy:

OBAMA: Katie, as ... you've asked me three different times, and I have said repeatedly that there is no doubt that our troops helped to reduce violence. There's no doubt. ...

COURIC: I really don't mean to belabor this, Senator, because I'm really, I'm trying ... to figure out your position. Do you think the level of security in Iraq would exist today without the surge?

OBAMA: Katie, I have no idea what would have happened had we applied my approach, which was to put more pressure on the Iraqis to arrive at a political reconciliation. So this is all hypotheticals

But any news that questioning may have generated was drowned out when (apparently unnoticed by CBS, as it was edited out of the version of the interview that aired), McCain messed up a key element of the surge timeline in his own Couric interview. The Obama campaign noticed. (So did Keith Olbermann.) Via the AP:

"Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening," McCain said, referring to the U.S.-backed revolt of Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida in Anbar province. "I mean, that's just a matter of history."

The problem with McCain's statement -- as Obama's campaign quickly noted -- was that the awakening got under way before President Bush announced in January 2007 his decision to flood Iraq with tens of thousands of additional U.S. troops to help combat violence.

Continue reading "Wednesday Morning: McCain's Gaffes, Obama in the Holy Land, and Novak Punk'd" »

10:00 AM ET | 07-23-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Dueling Photo-Ops, Continued Surge Debate, and Op-Ed Controversy

Good morning, all.

Barack Obama is in Amman, Jordan after touring Iraq yesterday. His visit to the war zone included a helicopter tour with General David Petraeus -- an opportunity not just for catching up on ground conditions in Iraq, but for swashbuckling photos that made opponent John McCain's Kennebunkport golf cart ride with former President George H.W. Bush look pretty minor...and, well, a little geriatric.

So far it would be difficult to characterize Obama's overseas trip as anything but successful. The Iraqi government's re-confirmation of their desire for a timeline that would phase out the US troop presence by 2010 and the Bush administration's diplomatic meeting with the Iranians would seem to bolster positions of Obama's (phased withdrawal from Iraq, negotiating with enemies) that McCain has derided during the campaign.

But the McCain campaign continues to exploit a weakness in Obama's Iraq postion: that he opposed the troop surge that has by all accounts dramatically lessened violence in Iraq. During his visit with the 41st President in Kennebunkport, McCain called Obama "completely wrong" on Iraq, and pointed out that his opponent has "no military experience whatsoever." Then yesterday Obama provided the McCain camp with a helpful sound bite on that front in an interview with ABC's Terry Moran, who asked if, knowing what he knows now, he would still support the surge. Via Jake Tapper:

"No," Obama said. "These kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20/20. But I think that what I am absolutely convinced of is at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with and one that I continue to disagree with is to look narrowly at Iraq and not focus on these broader issues."

This is a toughie for Obama: either stick to his guns despite evidence that the surge has provided progress in Iraq or admit that his judgment was wrong. Both scenarios cause headaches...he can either be stubborn, or he can be a flip-flopper. So far, he's opted for stubbornness.

And yesterday the blogosphere was busy after Drudge reported that the New York Times had rejected a McCain op-ed on Iraq to counterbalance Obama's from last week. Times op-ed editor David Shipley said the McCain piece was too reactive, and didn't provide new information about McCain's policies:

The Obama piece worked for me because it offered new information (it appeared before his speech); while Senator Obama discussed Senator McCain, he also went into detail about his own plans.

It would be terrific to have an article from Senator McCain that mirrors Senator Obama's piece. To that end, the article would have to articulate, in concrete terms, how Senator McCain defines victory in Iraq. It would also have to lay out a clear plan for achieving victory -- with troops levels, timetables and measures for compelling the Iraqis to cooperate. And it would need to describe the senator's Afghanistan strategy, spelling out how it meshes with his Iraq plan.

But First Amendment advocates need not fear, as the New York Post has generously stepped in and published the McCain piece as originally penned. In some ways, the final shakeout went about as well as possible for McCain: his column attracted much more attention than it would have received if the NYT had published it in the first place, with the added bonus that he got into a public dustup with a paper that's reviled by the right. Double happiness!

Coming up today: Obama holds a news conference at the Citadel overlooking Amman, Jordan before heading to Israel. McCain holds a town hall meeting in Rochester, NH.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-22-2008 | permalink

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Monday Morning: Obama in Iraq, Maliki Creates Controversy, and a Jaw-Dropping Number

Good day.

Barack Obama (accompanied by Sens. Chuck Hagel, R-NE and Jack Reed D-RI) arrived in Iraq early this morning after spending the weekend in Afghanistan and Kuwait. He'll reportedly meet with US commanders including General David Petraeus, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The visit caps off a whirlwind weekend of Iraq policy news. First, on Friday afternoon the White House announced a potential shift in Iraq policy:

[I]mproving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals.

But before you start wondering whether a "general time horizon" is anything like a timetable (which PM Maliki seemed to call for earlier this month), the story gets even more complicated. Maliki was quoted over the weekend in the German magazine Der Spiegel saying that he likes the 16-month drawdown plan advocated by Obama. The White House then accidentally emailed the press corps the Reuters clip that broke the story in the US, headlined "Iraqi PM backs Obama troop exit plan." Maliki's office later backed off the Spiegel quotes, calling them "misunderstood and mistranslated," though they did not specify which parts of the interview inaccurately represented Maliki's position. According to The Trail, the clarification came after a call from officials at the US Embassy. The AP posits that Maliki's interview was part of a concerted effort to "play U.S. politics for the best deal possible over America's military mission." But the Pentagon pushed back in the form of a Fox News Sunday interview with top military officer Adm. Michael Mullen, who told Chris Wallace that "the consequences could be very dangerous" if the US sets a specific timeline.

John McCain endeavored to stay in the news despite the extensive coverage of his opponent's overseas trip. He devoted his weekly radio address, a press release, a reporter conference call this morning, and a round of appearances on the network morning shows to pushing his own Iraq policy. McCain particularly emphasized his longtime support of the successful troop surge, which Barack Obama opposed. But there's no question that this was a tough weekend for McCain, who also saw the resignation of controversial economic adviser Phil Gramm. And on the "holy moly" front, Politico is reporting that Obama's $52 million in June fundraising included $25 million in one day. It was the last day of the month, which always features a big push from the campaign...but nonetheless that's a staggering number.

His one-day haul represents nearly half of his monthly total and more than Republican rival John McCain generated for the entire month. During the month, McCain did not have a single day in which he raised a million dollars.

Yowzers.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-21-2008 | permalink

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Friday Morning: McCain's Swing State Tour, the DNC's Independent Ad Arm, and VP Realism

To quote a dear friend: Happy Friday.

Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East and Europe continues to dominate the news, and it hasn't even happened yet. Yesterday, even though Obama didn't have any public events, the news turned to what John McCain (and his staff) were saying about Obama's trip. This morning's USA Today reveals that while Obama and his press entourage are overseas, McCain will tour a few swing states to talk about domestic issues. Although...

"If they want us to respond to what he's doing over there, I'm sure we could make the time," [McCain adviser Charlie] Black said wryly, noting that ABC, CBS and NBC are sending their television anchors overseas to trail Obama. Black said the McCain campaign will ask for equal time if the networks run interviews with Obama.

Seems like this is tricky territory for McCain. If he spends his opponent's trip giving response interviews, he allows the Obama campaign to stay in control of the conversation. But if he goes about his own business, he risks falling off the media radar.

The AP reported late yesterday that the DNC is establishing an independent spending operation that will make ads on behalf of Barack Obama. There are federal limits ($19 million) on how much money the Obama campaign and the DNC can coordinate on spending, but this new group would allow them to funnel off additional money as long as they don't oversee the product.

The RNC already has its own version of this up and running. These groups may be especially influential this year since both campaigns have vocally discouraged third party ad efforts.

And over at Politico, David Paul Kuhn throws some cold water -- or, shall we say, common sense -- on the rampant speculation about a McCain/Lieberman or Obama/Hagel pairing. Even though these two Senators -- Lieberman and Hagel -- have parted with their own parties when it comes to Iraq policy, they fall in line with their respective caucuses on just about every other issue. Look no further than Lieberman's 100% rating from NARAL or Hagel's A-grade from the NRA and you'll see why crossing party lines to select either of them as Veep would make for a couple of very hairy conventions.

Finally, approval ratings for both the President and Congress are in the tank. According to Gallup, President Bush is at 29%, his lowest approval yet, and Congress tips the scales at a measley 14%. Gallup's Linda Saad says this all seems hauntingly familiar:

2008 now looks an awful lot like 1979, and for some of the same reasons: mounting inflation, record-high gas prices, and a looming recession. Public approval of President Jimmy Carter in mid-July 1979 was 29%, very similar to Bush's current 31%. And approval of Congress was also comparable: 19% in June 1979 vs. 14% today.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-18-2008 | permalink

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Thursday Morning: Obama's June Haul, the Gift of Oppo, and Anchors Aweigh!

Good morning.

Today's news is full of juicy bits -- which are especially welcome after yesterday's barrage of charts and graphs.

The Obama campaign released their June fundraising numbers this morning -- a cool $52 million that does not quite meet the campaign's $55 million high water mark from February. But it does come pretty darn close. Average donation: $68. While Obama's $52 million might make John McCain's $22 million June haul -- no shabby sum in any other year -- look paltry, Obama's fundraising bar is higher since he didn't take public financing. And while the DNC's financial cupboards had been looking pretty cobwebby compared to the RNC's this cycle, the Dems finally seem to be catching up. The Obama campaign later contacted reporters to correct Plouffe's email indicating a nearly $30 million GOP advantage -- turns out DNC + Obama are almost neck-and-neck with RNC + McCain in terms of cash on hand.

On the oppo front, the NYT uncovers a link to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff in the recently-released list of McCain's bundlers; the Chicago Sun-Times lists grant recipients from Obama's IL Senate days; and the WP finds links to both campaigns from Fannie and Freddie.

Even MORE polling data shows voters are most concerned about the economy.

And all three network anchors (Williams, Gibson, and Couric) will be hopping Barack Obama's plane to the Middle East and Europe (dates/itinerary still a mystery, but the scuttlebutt is any day now), and will be hosting their broadcasts from the road...thus creating a multi-day period that John McCain could spend riding a unicycle, juggling, and eating a rubber tire to the tune of "Flight of the Bumblebee" without attracting much media attention. NPR's esteemed Don Gonyea will be along for the ride as well. We look forward to his stories from the press charter almost as much as his reports on the actual news events...

Today: Al Gore calls for major action on climate change at DAR Constitution Hall in Washington, and President Bush speaks at Tony Snow's Memorial Service.

And finally: another unfortunate development in this week's Jesse Jackson dustup.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-17-2008 | permalink

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Wednesday Morning: Polls A-Go-Go, Lewis Holds On, and Obama's Unicorn

Good day, everyone.

It's a poll-tastic Wednesday morning in our nation's capital, and despite yesterday's feisty back & forth on Iraq and Afghanistan, it appears that voters are most concerned about the economy. An NPR/Kaiser/Harvard poll in the crucial swing states of Florida and Ohio finds that more than 7 out of 10 voters call the economy a top issue. And get this:

[M]ore than three-quarters of people in Florida said they were facing at least one serious economic problem; half said they were struggling with three or more. The big ones? It's jobs, gas prices, housing and health care.

A second wave of data from the national poll from the Washington Post and ABC News (we wrote about the first wave yesterday) echoes those findings, with about half of voters ranking economic concerns at the top of their list, followed by gas/energy prices, and Iraq in third place.

Meanwhile, a New York Times/CBS News poll finds that despite Barack Obama's groundbreaking candidacy, many African-Americans say they have seen little progress on race relations in the past few years. The poll also indicates racial divisions in the perception of Obama as a candidate:

Black voters were far more likely than whites to say that Mr. Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like them, and more likely to describe him as patriotic. Whites were more likely than blacks to say that Mr. Obama says what he thinks people want to hear, rather than what he truly believes. And about half of black voters said race relations would improve in an Obama administration, compared with 29 percent of whites.

Those findings are...not terribly surprising. But according to ABC's Jake Tapper, the Obama campaign is already pushing back.

Georgia held its state & local primaries yesterday, and despite yesterday's WP article about a younger generation of black politicians challenging incumbents with civil rights-era cred, longtime Democratic Rep. John Lewis cruised to an easy victory in his first contested primary since 1992.

Coming up today: for all you Veep watchers out there, Barack Obama appears in Indiana today alongside Sen. Evan Bayh and former Sen. Sam Nunn -- two names that have been bandied about by VP speculators. And John McCain addresses the NAACP. Not an altogether common stop for a GOP candidate, and maybe especially tricky today given the timing of the NYT poll. He's expected to focus on education.

And finally, JibJab has a new video portraying Barack Obama bounding over hill and dale on a pink unicorn, surrounded by woodland creatures, as John McCain rips out an IV and hops into a tank.

-- Evie Stone

10:00 AM ET | 07-16-2008 | permalink

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Tuesday Morning: Polls, Iraq, and "The Body" Stays on the Sidelines

Good morning, everyone.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll out this morning has some interesting data. Respondents are almost equally divided over which of the two major candidates they trusted to handle the war (McCain 47%, Obama 45%), but when asked whether they thought each candidate "would be a good commander-in-chief" 72% thought McCain would fit the bill and only 48% thought Obama would.

Meanwhile, Obama is pushing his Iraq policies hard this week after last week's flip-flopping accusations. This morning at 10:45 he'll follow yesterday's New York Times op-ed with what his campaign is billing as a "major policy address" on Iraq and National Security. (N.B. President Bush has scheduled a (rare) news conference on the economy at 10:20...and it's almost certain to overlap with Obama's speech. What's a network to do??) All this as lead-up to Obama's pending trip to Iraq -- his first, as the McCain campaign is fond of pointing out, since 2006. McCain, for his part, will swipe at Obama today for pushing policy prescriptions before he sees the facts on the ground.

Opening the door: our own David Welna's piece on the unusual position of Independent-Democrat Sen. Joe Lieberman, who still caucuses with the Dems but openly supports John McCain's candidacy. Noteworthy: Lieberman says he doesn't have any intention of leaving the Democratic caucus "before the end of this session of Congress." No word on what he'll do in the 111th.

And after tantalizing us with the possibility of a Senate run, former MN Governor and pro wrestler Jesse Ventura told CNN's Larry King last night that he's not up for another foray into politics...unless he gets a sign from God that compels him to change his mind before the 5pm (CDT) filing deadline. Which would be especially notable since he also told Larry, "God's never spoken to me once, never."

And in the wake of the New Yorker cover blowup, the NYT takes a look at comedy writers' struggles to come up with decent jokes about Obama. Quoth one frustrated writer: "The thing is, he's not buffoonish in any way." How disappointing...

-- Evie Stone

10:30 AM ET | 07-15-2008 | permalink

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