Obama is Yin to Bush's Popularity Yang

Gallup puts numbers to the stark contrast seen at the White House today. While both Bush and Obama pledged to unite the country after they became President Elect, Obama has the benefit of not being tested just yet. The new Gallup poll indicates that Obama is more popular today than he was on Election Day. However, Bush is one of the least popular two-term presidents.

Gallup finds that most (66%) Americans hold a negative view of President Bush. Most Americans (70%) hold a positive view of Sen. Obama.

-- Michael Olson

3:19 PM ET | 11-10-2008 | permalink

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Polling 2012?

The Marist poll sent an email to reporters this morning with the title:

Marist Poll: Matchups for the 2012 Presidential Election -- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Its contents after the jump.

-- Evie Stone

Continue reading "Polling 2012?" »

12:10 PM ET | 11- 6-2008 | permalink

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Poll Finds Republicans Happier Than Democrats

New data from the Pew Center indicates that Republicans are happier than Democrats.

According to a survey conducted earlier this month, 37% of Republicans self-identify as "very happy" while only 25% of Democrats do. GOPers have outpaced Dems on the happiness scale since Pew started asking in 1972, but this is one of the largest gaps in the survey's history.

Some possible explanations for the Republican happiness advantage:

In the latest Pew survey, some 35% of those with family incomes above $100,000 a year report being very happy, compared with just 27% of those with annual incomes of less than $50,000. (A June Pew survey had found an even wider happiness gap by income -- 46% of the $100,000-plus income group reported being very happy in that survey, compared with 30% of the under-$50,000 group -- perhaps suggesting that the recent stock market miseries have disproportionately intruded on the happiness of those in higher income brackets).

Pew surveys also find that Republicans have more money than Democrats -- on average, about $18,000 more a year in annual family income, according to a February survey. And when it comes to household wealth, the Republican advantage over Democrats is even greater.

Next up on the demographic check list is marriage. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be married, and married adults are more likely than unmarried adults to report that they are very happy -- 34% vs. 24%.

But let's stop right here, because these correlations raise as many questions as they answer. Is it that happy people get married, or that married people get happy? Does money lead to happiness, or happiness to money? Or might some unrelated factor be creating correlations which don't actually have any causal connection?

Check Pew's website for the regressive analysis...

-- Evie Stone

5:29 PM ET | 10-23-2008 | permalink

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Single Gals Dig Obama

A new survey of 14 battleground states from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of the Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund says unmarried women are the key to Barack Obama's current advantage over John McCain:

In national surveys, Obama now leads McCain by up to 10 points and has built support among Independents, older voters and other swing voters. But his margin among unmarried women--the largest demographic base group at 26 percent of the voting age population--anchors his margin. In fact, Obama leads 58 - 31 percent among unmarried women in the battleground, a lead that has been large and stable from the beginning of this campaign. Married women divide evenly (46 percent Obama, 47 percent McCain).

This is interesting data...but I fear the actual information in the poll will be drowned out by TV news heads vying for the cutesiest moniker for this newly-fascinating sub-demo...my money's on "Sex And The City voters". Barf. I hereby cast my lot for "Mary Richards voters". Who's with me?

Also...poor -- though presumably (hopefully!) unintentional choice of words for a subhed on wooing the MRVs: "Engaging Unmarried Women." (Seriously, you guys. You'd think a women's advocacy group would know better...)

-- Evie Stone

1:17 PM ET | 10-17-2008 | permalink

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Health Care Sneaking Up on the Economy

Remember when gas was four bucks a gallon and gas prices were the top issue for voters? That was so five minutes ago. Now a new poll shows that yes, it's the economy, stupid. But guess what's leaped back into second place? Health care.

The survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 5-9 by Lake Research Partners and Voter/Consumer Research (a Democratic and Republican firm, respectively) on behalf of the Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease. It found a whopping 64 percent of those responding said the economy would be their top issue as they went to the polls next month. But in second place, at 21 percent, was health care. Education, terrorism/national security, and Social Security/retirement tied for third at 16 percent each. The situation in Iraq trailed at 13 percent, and oh yes, gas prices were named by 11 percent, just ahead of the national debt and moral values, named by 7 percent each.

When asked what concerned them most on a personal level, health care actually ranked first among respondents, ahead of the rising costs of gas and food, jobs, and retirement savings. And in a finding likely to make John McCain even more unhappy than he already is, 64 percent of respondents said they favor providing "quality, affordable health care for all Americans, even if it means a major role for the federal government."

-- Julie Rovner

5:50 PM ET | 10-15-2008 | permalink

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Latest Battleground Polls Favor Obama

Swing-state numbers released today by Quinnipiac (in coordination with the WSJ and washingtonpost.com) show Obama with double-digit leads in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and nine points ahead in Colorado. WP's Chris Cillizza writes that the economic crisis is the key factor swaying voters toward Obama.

The surveys also indicate that Obama is significantly more trusted on economic issues than McCain. In Wisconsin, 53 percent said Obama "better understands the economy" while just 32 percent chose McCain. The numbers were not much better in Michigan (52 percent Obama/35 percent McCain), Minnesota (49/34) or Colorado (51/39).

A majority of voters in each state said McCain had not shown "effective leadership" in dealing with the financial meltdown. Throughout the past several weeks, McCain has condemned financial executives on Wall Street, offered a few proposed remedies for the crisis, and briefly suspended his campaign to return to Washington to take part in White House talks over a $700 billion rescue plan.

Battleground states not specific enough for you? Then try these Politico/Insider Advantage numbers from four bellwether counties that Bush carried in 2004:

In Washoe County, near Reno, Nev., Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 45 percent , with 6 percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50 percent-44 percent lead with 5 percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina's Wake County, and another 6 point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

Next up: battleground subdivisions?

-- Evie Stone

5:15 PM ET | 10-14-2008 | permalink

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Health Care Voter Tug-O-War

Sen. Barack Obama spent much of this past weekend touting his health plan -- and blasting that of Sen. John McCain. A poll out last week from the public opinion research team at the Harvard School of Public Health and Harris Interactive may suggest why.

Despite the ups and downs of this campaign, health care has been a perennial strong suit for Democrats; it's an issue on which voters have almost always favored them over the GOP. And indeed, the Harvard poll, conducted Sept. 17-21, found an overall preference for Obama's plan over McCain's. By 45-14 percent respondents without health insurance thought Obama's plan would be more likely to help them get coverage, and by 31 to 19 percent those currently covered thought Obama's plan more likely to help them keep insurance. And by 27-19 percent respondents said Obama's plan would be better at keeping down the amount they pay for health care and insurance.

But when asked which candidate's health plan would be better for them personally, the results were much closer -- 33 percent said Obama's compared to 27 percent for McCain's. And among the coveted subset of political independents, McCain actually came out slightly ahead -- by 26 to 24 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

So Obama came out swinging.

Continue reading "Health Care Voter Tug-O-War" »

5:01 PM ET | 10- 6-2008 | permalink

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Polls A-Go-Go

As we are fond of reminding you, national poll top-lines are not that useful in determining what will happen on election day. Polls in battleground states, on the other hand, can be very instructive. Which is why today's Quinnipiac numbers are getting so much attention.

The polls were taken in the crucial (and electoral vote-rich) battlegrounds of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and Quinnipiac divided the data into pre- and post-debate sections. In all three states, Barack Obama gained ground over John McCain after Friday's debate at Ole Miss -- a meeting that many pundits considered a draw. Here are the numbers:

FLORIDA:
Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate

OHIO:
Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate

PENNSYLVANIA:
Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate

For the sake of comparison, here are the 2004 stats:

FL: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%
OH: Bush 50%, Kerry 48%
PA: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%

Continue reading "Polls A-Go-Go" »

2:17 PM ET | 10- 1-2008 | permalink

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Pew on Bailout: Lots of Angry People Out There

A new survey from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press indicates that public support for the economic bailout plan is waning. A modest majority of Americans -- 45 to 38 -- think the plan is the right thing to do. That margin is down sharply from 10 days ago, when 57% percent of those polled thought it was the right strategy, versus 30% who thought it was the wrong one. Concern over the bailout appears to transcend party lines, with support for the plan dropping among Democrats, Republicans, and independents. When asked to describe their emotional reaction to the government's proposed $700 billion rescue effort, 61% said they are "angry"; 50% described themselves as "scared"; 43% are "confused"; and 29% are "optimistic".

The survey also shows that voters favor Barack Obama by a large margin -- 46 to 33 -- when asked which Presidential candidate can best address the nation's economic crisis. However, among independent voters, Obama's edge is much slimmer, 38-32. Click here to read a complete overview of the Pew survey.

-- Sean Bowditch

4:22 PM ET | 09-30-2008 | permalink

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McCain Leads in Rural Battleground, But is it Enough Rural Support?

A new poll from the non-partisan Center for Rural Strategies has John McCain up ten points in rural counties in 13 battleground states. The 742 respondents favored McCain 51% to 41% for Democrat Barack Obama.

But that's not necessarily good news for the McCain camp. President Bush won rural counties by twice that margin and rural voters were considered key to the president's two elections.

Analysis of election results from 2004 show a 4.1 million vote margin in rural counties for President Bush. That gave the president the edge he needed to overcome John Kerry's margin of 3.7 million votes in urban areas.

McCain's 10 point lead in the new poll isn't believed to be enough to make up for Barack Obama's expected 2008 margin in cities.

A series of rural polls since 2004 indicates a decline in the Republican dominance of rural areas.

McCain can take solace in the fact that rural voters indicated they have more faith now in how he'd handle key issues, including the economy and taxes. That's compared to the responses in a similar rural poll in May.

Still, those responding to the poll rate McCain and Obama even or nearly even on how they each would handle the economy and energy and gas prices, the two biggest issues they cited.

President Bush had a similar share of support (nine per cent) in a rural battleground poll taken in September 2004. But he doubled that support on election day.

The new and earlier rural surveys were conducted and analyzed by a bi-partisan team consisting of the Democratic polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and the Republican political consulting firm of Greener and Hook.

I'll have more on the rural vote tonight on All Things Considered -- and later today on the web.

-- Howard Berkes

7:57 AM ET | 09-22-2008 | permalink

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Obama Gains Slight Lead In New National Polls

There's a new batch of national polls just out (CBS/NY Times, Quinnipiac, Hotline and Gallup, etc.) that gives Obama a slight lead over McCain. RealClear Politics calculates Obama's average lead in these national polls as 0.9 percent.

The New York Times suggests that the polls numbers may have shifted in Obama's favor because McCain's post-convention bounce is waning. McCain also may be hurt by the financial implosion on Wall Street, which some argue makes it harder for him to distance himself from the President Bush's economic legacy.

A more nuanced view comes from the polling in the battleground states such as Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana and Wisconsin. There, CNN polling shows that the race remains tight.

But the folks over at the fivethirtyeight argue that it's increasingly difficult to interpret these state-by-state polling numbers -- in part, because there seems to a gap in polling in terms of who's winning the popular vote vs. the Electoral College.

-- Nancy Cook

11:07 AM ET | 09-18-2008 | permalink

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A Democratic President? Yes. Obama? Not So Sure.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows that a majority of likely voters in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio want a Democratic president in 2009. The margins: 44-39 in FL, 50-32 in PA, and 44-35 in OH. But Quinnipiac's numbers on the head-to-head race between McCain and Obama don't necessarily reflect that sentiment. In Florida, McCain leads 47-43 percent; in Ohio, Obama clings to a one-point lead, 44-43; and in Pennsylvania, Obama is up by 7 points, 49-42 percent. Just two months ago, Obama led in all three Quinnipiac state polls. The disparity might indicate that some voters are uneasy about the idea of a President Obama. Another interesting finding: When it comes to addressing the energy crisis and the economy, a majority of respondents in all three states favor Obama. But when it comes to dealing with terrorism, a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, or relations with Russia, a majority in the same states clearly favor McCain.

-- Sean Bowditch

10:51 AM ET | 08-26-2008 | permalink

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The Perils of Rockstardom

A new poll from the Pew Research Center suggests that some voters are suffering from "Obama Fatigue."

48% of respondents told Pew they've heard too much about Obama lately. And the exposure doesn't seem to be helping Obama's brand; 22% say they now view him less favorably than they once did, compared to 16% who like Obama more these days.

Only 26% of those polled said they've been hearing too much about John McCain...but, as with Obama, slightly more respondents (23%) said they have a less favorable view of him than a more favorable view (18%).

But McCain may still have a chance to wear out his welcome. According to the Project for Excellence in Journalism, last week (July 28 - August 3) was the first week this year in which McCain garnered as much press coverage as Obama.

-- Evie Stone

4:16 PM ET | 08- 6-2008 | permalink

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Ladies Who Vote

The latest Lifetime poll of women likely voters was released this afternoon (with the excellent mylifetime.com subhed: "Ladies share their thoughts on the presidential nominees, the issues, and the first woman president").

The poll indicates that the women's vote will be close -- there's no dramatic advantage for either candidate just yet (the numbers show Obama with 49%, McCain with 38%, and 10% of women still undecided). And the majority of women say their vote wouldn't be influenced if one of the candidates chose a female running mate -- though Obama would get a bigger bounce (29%) from choosing a woman than McCain would (15%).

As for the residual effects of the bitter Democratic primary, 18% of former Hillary supporters say they will vote for McCain. But only 21% of the women polled blame sexism for Clinton's loss; a combined 65% blame Clinton's campaign strategy or "who she is and what she stands for." 69% think Hillary's 2008 campaign will make it easier for other women to run for President in the near future.

And in what we suppose is the female equivalent of the "who would you rather have a beer with?" question, more women say they would like to carpool with Obama (51%) than with McCain (31%). They'd also rather vacation with the Obama family (49%) than with the McCains (26%). Though, in fairness, the Obamas do take an annual trip to Hawaii...

-- Evie Stone

4:26 PM ET | 08- 5-2008 | permalink

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Florida Turns Purple

Is Florida in play? Maybe so. Analysts who not long ago gave McCain a comfortable lead in Florida now are calling the state a tossup. Pollster John Zogby has changed the state on his electoral map from red to purple. Even Karl Rove now lists Florida as a tossup.

However, an Obama victory in Florida may depend on African-American turnout. The Washington Post reports this morning that "he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with the other voters that year."

Getting new voters to the polls requires more volunteers -- and more staff. Every day we get a new press release from the Obama campaign listing new members of their Florida "leadership team." Look at the numbers: McCain has something like 60 paid staff members in Florida. Obama has 200. Reporters like Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times are joking there may soon be more campaign press handlers than there are press covering the race in Florida.

-- Greg Allen

11:10 AM ET | 07-28-2008 | permalink

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The Latino Vote

Fresh numbers from the Pew Hispanic Center this morning show that Latino voters are breaking for Obama in a big way. They now favor the presumptive Democratic nominee over McCain by a three-to-one margin. During the Democratic primaries, Obama's opponent Hillary Clinton enjoyed broad support from Latinos, fueling speculation that Hispanics were reluctant to vote for an African American candidate. Today's Pew data seems to debunk that theory.

32% of respondents said being black would help Obama, while only 11% said it would hurt. And 53% said it would make no difference. In contrast, when asked about the role of McCain's race, 24% said that being white would hurt him among Latino voters, while only 11% said it would help. The majority (58%) said it would have no bearing.

Obama also takes the lead on favorability: 76% rated him positively, compared to 44% for McCain. And among those Latinos who said they initially backed Clinton, three-quarters of them have now thrown their support behind Obama, while only 8% say they will now vote for McCain.

The survey also reveals a few trends about voter participation that are worth keeping an eye on in the coming months. Pew's findings, which are based on state exit polls from the Democratic primaries, indicate that Latinos made up a greater percentage of voters in several states compared to past elections -- most notably in California and Texas. And among the registered Latino voters who were polled, 17% said they were voting for the first time.

For Latinos, pocketbook and family issues are top priorities. Respondents listed education (93%), cost of living (92%), jobs (91%), and healthcare (90%) as most important. Interestingly, the Iraq War (75%) and immigration (75%) trailed the pack.

This new data bodes well for the Democrats, especially in states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida where the fight for Latino votes is likely to be fierce. And with 65% of Latino voters now identifying with the Democratic Party -- the largest number in a decade according to Pew -- Obama appears to be in the driver's seat. But, as always, the key to success in November is turnout, turnout, turnout.

-- Sean Bowditch

10:01 AM ET | 07-24-2008 | permalink

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The South? North? East? West? Shall Rise Again

In the category of questions someone, somewhere thought to ask, we have a new telephone poll finding that 22 percent of Americans say a state or region of the country should be able to leave the union.

Wasn't this question settled, and fairly decisively, a few years back?

Evidently not to the satisfaction of the Middlebury Institute, a New York group that explores such questions and hired Zogby International to do the poll.

Zogby says those most likely to support the right to secede are Hispanics, African Americans and liberals. But old habits die hard, and respondents in Dixie were more likely to back secession locally.

In fairness, this isn't just a glance back at the Stars and Bars. Middlebury ties the secession question to modern concerns as to whether our current two-party system still works. The secession questions didn't exactly resonate with respondents. But a serious 44 percent of them said yes, the two-party system can't fix what's wrong with "the United States' system."

(The Middlebury Institute website is down right now. You can read Zogby's press release, with links, here.)

-- Peter Overby

12:40 PM ET | 07-23-2008 | permalink

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Candied Politics

The number of Americans who believe the press is in the tank for Obama is on the rise. The latest Rasmussen poll shows that 49% of respondents think reporters will tailor their coverage to help Obama, up from 44% a month ago. (And the McCain camp seems to agree, as evidenced by this new video.) In contrast, only 14% think journalists are going out of their way to help McCain.

I haven't seen any polls looking into the influence of the confectionery industry in this election, but it's worth noting that Kai's Candy Company of Haverton, PA is selling a special Obama gift set, complete with hand-painted Obama lollipops. Though they do throw in a strawberry-flavored "Lick McCain" version, you might be sensing an agenda here. So where's the McCain gift set? There isn't one. It turns out there was a production glitch. In the first batch of suckers, the image of McCain apparently came out looking too wrinkled. The new and improved version is expected to be available in August.

And as if you needed any more encouragement to place your order, their website declares: "Our candies are much tastier than the average McCain and Obama buttons and bumper stickers!" While that very well may be, you won't catch us licking a campaign button.

-- Sean Bowditch

11:54 AM ET | 07-22-2008 | permalink

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Yet Another Poll

We are swimming in numbers today... The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press has come out with some intriguing new data that looks at voters' perceptions of Obama's religious beliefs. It shows that more than 1 in 10 voters believes he is Muslim, a figure that has held steady in recent months despite the strenuous efforts of the Obama campaign to debunk that myth. Interestingly, virtually an equal number of Democrats, Republicans and independents hold that view. However, believing Obama is a Muslim isn't necessarily a show-stopper. Among that 12%, 51% back McCain and 37% plan to vote for Obama. These numbers are reversed among those who believe Obama is a Christian: 52-39. But a large number of voters say they're not sure or have heard conflicting reports about his religious affiliations (has the recent New Yorker cover fueled that confusion?), an indication that the issue may continue to dog the Obama campaign down the stretch.

On CNN's Larry King Live last night, Obama attempted once again to squash the rumor that he is Muslim. But he was quick to follow with this comment, one that we only seldom hear from him:

This is actually an insult against Muslim Americans, something we don't spend a lot of time talking about. And sometimes I've been derelict in pointing that out. There are wonderful Muslim Americans all across the country who are doing wonderful things and for this to be used as sort of an insult or to raise suspicions about me I think is unfortunate. And it's not what America is all about.

-- Sean Bowditch

11:59 AM ET | 07-16-2008 | permalink

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