The Keys To Succession

As we noted in yesterday's roundup, the selection of AZ Governor Janet Napolitano for Homeland Security Secretary will elevate Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer to the Grand Canyon State's Governor's condo.

Mike Memoli, filling in for Ambinder, has an exhaustive and fascinating look at some other potential Obama appointees whose selection could lead to party-changes in Governorships and Senate seats.

The Democratic Governors of Kansas, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Virginia would have Republican successors, and if Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed gets a political appointment, GOP Gov. Don Carcieri would select his replacement. But if one of Maine's moderate Republican Senators is tapped for a cabinet job, the Democrats could gain a seat with an appointment from Gov. John Baldacci...which would be huge if the Dems get to 59 with an Al Franken or Jim Martin Senate victory (and could be a potential reason for Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe to pass on an appointment offer).

-- Evie Stone

5:15 PM ET | 11-21-2008 | permalink

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372 Counties Flipped In '08

The Center for Rural Strategies has compiled a list of the 372 counties that swapped party allegiances between the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Some findings about the flippers, via CRS's release:

• The Midwest was the hotspot for flips this year, accounting for 173 or nearly half of all counties that changed allegiance in this election.
• Counties that changed their majority vote to Democratic this year had average per capita income of $25,587. Counties flipping Republican had average per capita income of only $18,555.
• Of the 211 rural counties that switched, 177 went Democratic while 34 went Republican.
• Of the 112 urban counties that flipped, all but one went Democratic.
• Of the 49 exurban counties that flipped, 39 went Democratic.

A map on CRS's website indicates that shifts toward the Republicans occurred primarily in rural Appalachia and Arkansas. You can check out individual breakdowns for urban, rural, and exurban counties on these handy data charts.

-- Evie Stone

3:46 PM ET | 11-13-2008 | permalink

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Settling The Dust

There are a couple of things up in the air yet from this election. NPR hasn't made calls for President in Missouri or Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Sen. John McCain leads Obama by 5,859 votes. If that stands it will be the closest state of all (McCain margin of victory would be .02%). Obama can call for a recount but that seems unlikely. Obama ally Sen. Claire McCaskill says there's no point.

NE-02 seems likely to go to Obama, but with only 600 votes separating McCain and Obama NPR isn't making the call until the provisional votes and absentee ballots are considered. Over the weekend, the Omaha World Herald determined that the electoral vote belongs to Obama.

For those keeping score, NPR shows Obama winning 364 electoral votes and McCain 162. If McCain picks up Missouri and Obama NE-02 the final score will be Obama 365, McCain 173.

-- Michael Olson

1:18 PM ET | 11-10-2008 | permalink

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Rudin's Call: Obama 291, McCain 247

NPR's Ken Rudin has arbitrated all the tossups and officially predicts an Obama victory tomorrow night. Ken sees 2004 red states Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia turning blue to award Obama 291 electoral votes. He predicts that Ohio will go for John McCain.

You can see a state-by state rundown of Ken's calls on the Presidential contest, all 35 Senate races, and 29 House races that he thinks will change hands (23 Republican to Democrat; 6 the other way) in the latest Political Junkie column. Or check out our interactive map.

Ken's disclaimer:

Full disclosure: You should know that in this column four years ago, I predicted Kerry would win -- thinking he would carry Ohio. And eight years ago, when this column ran on The Washington Post's Web site, I predicted Al Gore would win -- figuring he would carry Florida. So my track record on calling the presidential race is less than stellar. Which, looking at it another way, is good news for McCain.

-- Evie Stone

1:16 PM ET | 11- 3-2008 | permalink

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NPR Electoral Map: Obama 273, McCain 163

Obama 273, McCain 163

 

Barack Obama holds his lead in the NPR's Electoral Outlook. Political editor Ken Rudin isn't as generous to the Illinois Senator as Karl Rove, who has Obama at 313 electoral votes. Rudin is keeping Obama at 273 for now. John McCain has lost ground since our last map update, sliding from 174 to 163 after Rudin moved Missouri from Leaning McCain to Tossup.

-- Michael Olson

8:35 PM ET | 10-15-2008 | permalink

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NPR Electoral Map: Obama 273, McCain 174

Obama 273, McCain 174

NPR-NewsHour Interactive Election Map

 

Shifts in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Indiana have increased Barack Obama's predicted lead in electoral votes over John McCain. NPR's Ken Rudin doesn't see a clear winner in North Carolina at this time. He previously had the state Leaning GOP, but is now calling it a Tossup. WUNC and WHQR have reports on Michelle Obama and Sarah Palin's recent trips to the state. NPR's Peter Overby reports that Obama and the DNC have spent about $5.2 million in North Carolina, while McCain has spent just more than $790,000. Our map currently shows Obama with a slight (+1.8) edge on McCain based on the RCP Poll Average.

In New Hampshire Obama's RCP Poll Average over McCain is in the double digits (+10.4). Rudin has changed the state from Tossup to Leans Democratic.

Indiana, a state where Bush crushed Kerry 59-39%, is surprisingly competitive for Obama. The RCP Poll Average still shows McCain up (+3.8), but the Obama camp has a lot of boots on the ground and ads on-air. Overby reports that Obama and the DNC have spent almost $4.1 million in Indiana, while McCain and the RNC have spent just under $247,000. By itself, the McCain camp has spent $458.

-- Michael Olson

12:27 PM ET | 10-10-2008 | permalink

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What Happens if McCain and Obama Tie?

Yesterday's post about the latest polls and predictions on the NPR-NewsHour Election Map raises an extraordinary possibility.

NPR's Ken Rudin calls 5 states Toss-Ups: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

If all five of those states go for John McCain, and the rest of the map goes as currently predicted, both candidates will end up with 269 electoral votes apiece.

What happens then?

Nate Silver over at polling mecca FiveThirtyEight answers this question exhaustively--and thank goodness, because it's complicated.

Continue reading "What Happens if McCain and Obama Tie?" »

5:54 PM ET | 10- 2-2008 | permalink

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McCain Gives Up on Michigan

The AP reports that John McCain has given up on winning in Michigan and will be spending these last few weeks before Election Day elsewhere.

Republican officials with knowledge of the strategy said the GOP candidate is shifting resources to other states. Democrat John Kerry won here in 2004, but McCain had tried to make it a target to switch parties this year amid economic problems in the state.

The news came as Barack Obama campaigned in the state Wednesday.

The Arizona senator canceled a trip to the state next week, he won't run ads on TV after this week and is dispatching staffers to states that show him in stronger position.

Reports also note that while the RNC has just gone on TV in Michigan, there's no indication that the ad buy will continue.

Shifting staffers is a constant for the campaigns. After McCain named Palin as his running mate, some of Obama's Alaska staff was moved elsewhere, including Nevada. The Obama campaign still has four offices open in Alaska, despite McCain's 22-point lead there.

--Laurel Wamsley

3:42 PM ET | 10- 2-2008 | permalink

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NPR Electoral Count: Obama 269, McCain 200

NPR's Ken Rudin has once more gazed into his crystal ball. This time he came up with some good news for Barack Obama. The big shift in the NPR-NewsHour Election Map towards Obama is based on Rudin moving Florida from Leaning McCain to Tossup. He also took Pennsylvania out of Tossup and branded it Leaning Obama -- for the time being.

As of today the NPR-NewsHour Election Map lists McCain with 200 EVs and Obama with 269. Those numbers include states that are Strong and Leaning.

Strong Obama:
WA (11), OR (7), CA (55), HI (4), IL (21), NY (31), ME (4), VT (3), MA (12), RI (4), CT (7), NJ (15), DE (3), MD (10), DC (3) = 190

Strong McCain:
AK (3), ID (4), UT (5), AZ (10), WY (3), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), AR (6), LA (9), MS (6), AL (9), GA (15), SC (8), TN (11), KY (8), WV (5) = 160

Leaning Obama:
CO (9), NM (5), MN (10), IA (7), WI (10), MI (17), PA (21) =79

Leaning McCain:
MT (3), MO (11), IN (11), NC (15) = 40

Tossup:
NV (5), OH (20), VA (13), FL (27), NH (4) = 69

-- Michael Olson

5:07 PM ET | 10- 1-2008 | permalink

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Obama Holds Narrow Lead In 6 Of 10 Toss-Ups

Out of the 10 Toss-Up states between Obama and McCain on the NPR/NewsHour Election Map: Obama is narrowly ahead in 6, McCain in 3 and they are tied in 1.

Not including the Toss-Ups, NPR's Ken Rudin projects: Obama with 210 electoral votes, McCain with 200. Pushing the Toss-Ups based on Real Clear Politics averages Obama comes up with 273 and McCain comes up with 252

CO: Obama +1.2 9EV
IA: Obama +5.3 7EV
MI: Obama +4.3 17EV
NH: Obama +0.3 4 EV
NM: Obama +1.0 5EV
PA: Obama +5.0 21EV

FL: McCain +3.5 27EV
NV: McCain +3.0 5EV
OH: McCain +1.2 20EV

VA:TIE 46/46 13EV

-- Michael Olson

9:00 PM ET | 08-26-2008 | permalink

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