Mac-Mentum

Mindy Finn, Political Strategist
Despite Pennsylvania going from red to purple to blue in the last decade, John McCain has the momentum in the state as the Democratic candidates prepare to go head-to-head in next week's primary. Why does McCain lead, and will his lead last?

Strategic Vision recently released a poll of 1,200 likely Pennsylvania voters that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama 49-40; however, more striking is that Sen. John McCain now leads both Democrats - Clinton 47-44 and Obama 49-39.

Pennsylvania is a state that went Blue in both of the last two presidential elections. It has a Democratic Governor, and in 2006, one of its Senate seats and four congressional seats were taken from red to blue.

So how does McCain lead in the state when pitted against either of the two Democratic contenders? It's a trend that is not unique to Pennsylvania, but has been apparent in recent national polls as well.

Some pundits hypothesized that with the Democratic primary raging on, McCain would fade into the background, which would damage his candidacy. If you assume all press is good press, Clinton and Obama would benefit by a continued battle where every move they make is hyped, and in turn, maintain their heightened profile. McCain on the other hand would vanish from the voters' hearts and minds.

BUT, that kind of thinking is based on an old media model, which assumes that whomever is most covered by the major TV news networks, and their local affiliates, and appears on the cover of the local newpaper, will benefit.

Let's challenge the old media presumption for a minute. According to a report by the Pew Internet & American Life Project, theInternet is living up to its potential as a major news source for news about the presidential campaign. Nearly a quarter of Americans say they regularly learn something about the campaign from the Internet, almost double the number in the 2004 presidential campaign. Further, Pew reports that the proportion of Americans who rely on traditional news sources for information about the campaign has remained static or declined slightly since the last presidential campaign.

Compared with the 2000 campaign, far fewer Americans now say they regularly learn about the campaign from local local TV news, nightly network news and daily newspapers.

Couple those facts with a look at the nature of the candidate media coverage recently. While Hillary and Obama received far more traditional media coverage than John McCain this past week, as they have consistently for the past few months, McCain's coverage was focused on substance, for example, his response to Gen. David Petraeus' report to Congress and on his consideration of potential Vice Presidential picks. On the other hand, Hillary was plagued by coverage about departed senior advisor Mark Penn, and Obama's coverage was dominated by his apparent elitist comments about small town America.

Bottom line. The internet, more of a force in how voters get their news and shape their opinions today than in previous election years, empowers voters to search for and consume news on the topics, and candidates who most interest them, regardless of who is getting covered most by network news and local newspapers. Via the Internet, they can continue following a 'long tail' of coverage on the topics that most interest them.

Given those dynamics, and that recently the news about McCain has been more positive than for the Democratic candidates, one should not be surprised that McCain has seen a slight uptick in Pennsylvania and national polls.

With all other large state primaries out of the way, Pennsylvania has had several weeks of independent focus on the presidential race. And at a time when voters are overwhelmingly calling for change in Washington, they would rather support a candidate who has experience with and is focusing on key issues - like Iraq and the economy - that's John McCain - than two squabbling candidates - the squabbling reminds voters of what Washington has suffered from for long enough. As long as the squabbling continues, and McCain is the sole commanding voice in the race, his lead in Pennsylvania, and nationally, will continue.

--Mindy Finn, Political Strategist

12:06 PM ET | 04-18-2008 | permalink