Who in the GOP Gets the VP Rose?

Mindy Finn, Political Strategist
As Americans plan for the Memorial Day holiday, packing away their winter clothes, firing up their grills, and smiling at the thought of a three-day weekend (and the short week that follows), presidential candidate Senator John McCain is making unique holiday plans, vetting potential vice presidents.

Washington is abuzz over the special Memorial Day weekend invitations received by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Massachusetts Governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney to McCain's Arizona ranch, the first visit by all three men.

McCain's camp denies that the invitations were extended for a vice presidential tryout; yet, the three men have been named by pundits and press for months as likely short list VP picks.

One can't help but envision a weekend in the style of the television show The Bachelor. In this modern mash-up of The Dating Game and reality TV at its worst, each potential bachelorette seeks to highlight her best qualities to win over the bachelor's heart and be chosen as his life-long partner. Someone is eliminated each episode when she is not granted a rose by the bachelor.

Which of McCain's guests in Arizona get a rose? Is any of them "the one?"

Each candidate has his strengths and weaknesses.

Jindal comes with zero baggage, and he brings the youth and diversity (color) to the ticket Republicans could certainly use to compete against Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton, for that matter. He has been remarkably successful putting Louisiana in ethical check in just more than four months as governor, pioneering unprecedented ethics reform in a state with a political record most famous for corruption. Remember, Republicans suffered tremendous congressional losses in 2006, in large part because of ethics.

Sounds perfect. So what could prevent him from getting a VP rose? He's only 36 years old, his intelligence, charisma and hard-charging approach could overshadow McCain. Plus, he just left Congress to take over the governor's office in January 2008 with bold plans for turning around his beloved home state of Louisiana. Abandoning that mission could soil his reputation.

Crist enjoys the vast popularity of Floridians, Republicans and many Democrats alike. He has the face of a potential president, and has proven his muscle as a campaigner. His well-publicized endorsement of McCain before the Florida primary has been credited for McCain's win in that primary, which helped propel him to the nomination.

Typically, presidential nominees look for vice presidential picks from key states that can help carry their home state. Crist could certainly do that.

So, what could prevent him from getting the rose? Party leaders and activists have expressed discomfort with Crist. He ran in Florida as a moderate and has championed efforts to curb climate change. He was even praised by former President Clinton for his efforts to restore voting rights of felons who have completed their sentences. With conservatives displeased by McCain's less-than-conservative bona fides, it could be difficult or Crist to help ease their concerns. Also, Crist would be the first bachelor VP since 1853 (no pun intended).

Then there's Romney. As the second place finisher in the Republican primary, history might project that he would be a natural choice for vice president. He's comfortable with the campaign pace of a presidential campaign, has activists and donors at his fingertips from his recent campaign and could help unite the party and bring over conservatives. Romney also has executive experience on his side, having led major organizations in business, the Olympics and the state of Massachusetts. Presidential nominees are known to look for vice presidential picks who complement their own strengths; McCain's strength is foreign policy while Romney's is economic policy.

What might prevent McCain from giving Romney a rose?

Conventional wisdom during the tumultuous Republican presidential primary season was that McCain personally deplored Romney. If the desire is to pick a vice president who can carry his home state, McCain probably can't count on that from Romney. Massachusetts is historically one of the most liberal states in the U.S. And whether it should be or not, Romney's Mormon religion turns off many of the conservatives McCain has struggled to court.

The old cliche applies here. Nobody's perfect. Also the conventional wisdom of the 2008 presidential campaign is that there is no conventional wisdom.

So who will it be, and will the rendezvous in Arizona get McCain closer to political matrimony?

Ultimately, it's McCain's show, and he'll be left with only one rose to give away. But a bad choice will lead to more than just headlines on Entertainment Tonight. In this courting process, we, get the final vote in whether the couple was meant to be.

DISCLOSURE: The author was the Director of eStrategy for the Romney for President campaign from March 2007 through February 2008.

12:19 PM ET | 05-24-2008 | permalink

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