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Mindy Finn, political strategist

Where are John McCain's opportunities to overtake Barack Obama?

In the primary season, Obama largely took the urban areas while Hillary Clinton attracted rural, moderate and conservative Democrats.

Now, McCain's opportunities lie in winning over the rural voters who voted for Hillary either because a) they almost always vote for Democrats, or b) they voted for Bush in 2000 or 2004, and are now on the anti-Bush bandwagon.

 

For these same voters, Obama is too liberal, and with the right reminders, they'll remember that McCain is a grittier, more resolute, yet solutions-based, leader than Bush. Bush Republicans are not McCain Republicans.

In several swing states, the Republican nominee has an advantage in rural areas — even in Democratic areas — over the Democratic nominee. In places like southern New Hampshire, northeast Pennsylvania, a blue-collar, now majority Democratic area, and all of the rural areas of Ohio, which have been trending blue overall, McCain can win. As a result, the Obama nomination threatens Democrats in down ballot races, such as Congressional races, and raises hopes for Republican challengers.

Many of the Republican challengers are those who have run before, held office before, or are running in districts where Republicans lost their seats in the 2006 change election that sent so many Republicans packing. They are banking on the idea that with the war as the major gripe in '06, Republicans were voted out; now that the Democratic majority has accomplished nothing, and the war is not issue numero uno, they have a chance to get back in the game.

In New Hampshire, for example, former Representative Jeb Bradley is running for the Republican nomination to challenge one-term Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1). Shea-Porter was the first Democrat elected to the district for the first time in over 20 years.

In northeast Pennsylvania, Republican Chris Hackett, has an opportunity to take back the 10th Congressional District for Republicans after it was lost in 2006 after more than 40 years of Republican leadership. In the 11th District, Hazleton Mayor Republican Lou Barletta is challenging 24-year Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski. Barletta lost to Kanjorski in 2002, and Hillary also dominated the district during the primary. Clinton won both Pennsylvania districts by about a margin of 2 to 1 over Obama in that state's Democratic primary.

And in Ohio's 18th Congressional District, Republican Fred Dailey confronts Democrat Zack Space in November. Space won the seat after 6-term Republican Bob Ney got caught up in the Abramoff scandal. Like any first-termer, Space is the most vulnerable now, and Dailey sees his chance. (Obama is aware of his vulnerability in places like rural Ohio as evidenced by choosing Zanesville, Ohio, within the 18th District, to deliver his recent faith & community speech).

McCain can help these candidates get elected by working hard to win over the rural vote, a vote that went to Hillary over Obama in the Democratic primary, launching Hillary to a win in those states. These candidates can also help McCain.

The result: Republicans will not have as depressing a year as predicted.