The Big Ol' Middle Class

"Homi Kharas, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, estimates that by 2020, the world's middle class will grow to include a staggering 52% of the total population, up from 30% now."

It sounds like good news, right? And, of course, it is -- the projection is attributed to folks moving up from poverty, not down from wealth. But according to Moises Naim, the thunder created by the far-off middle class herd is already audible... And it is getting louder.

Briefly, a larger middle class creates a higher demand for the comforts we're all used to, like an ample variety of foods, modern appliances, and a wardrobe (and not just the clothes on your back). And what does a higher demand make room for? Higher prices. And scarcity. It's simple economics, and according to Naim, it's unpredictable, and it's going to be noisy.

1:56 PM ET | 03-26-2008 | permalink

 

Comments (Send a comment)

It was pathetic that Dr. Naim would say that the prices are going up becasue more and more people are eating three meals a day. The supply and demand cycle would predict otherwise.

Sent by Abdulkader Khatri | 4:06 PM ET | 03-26-2008

I love your show and get so inspired
by all the IQ shows. This one was one
of the very best. But, as one caller
mentioned, the big obstecale is to find
a way to get this to the main stream
and turn their attention. Thanks

Sent by Uffe Schlein | 7:39 AM ET | 03-27-2008

One caller mentioned the roll of population growth in the increasing demand for consumer goods. While I completely disagree with the caller's reference to Hispanics as the chief cause of population growth in the U.S., I do not understand why Homi Kharas maintains that there is no link between population and consumption. Surely that flies in the face of common sense; for example, even the less fortunate among us must consume energy to survive.

Sent by Ann Woods | 11:02 AM ET | 03-27-2008

What I came to understand from this segment is that there will be NO middle class as we understand it. There will be the rich, the poor (our current middle-class) and the destitute (our current poor.) The world-wide economy, since it is not a level playing field, will have the effect of reducing everyone to the lowest common denominator. Some people (those living in 3rd world conditions) will enjoy a raised standard of living. Some people (those living below the "rich" standard in first-world countries) will experience a lowered standard of living.

Sent by Jeffrey A. Tickle | 1:48 PM ET | 03-27-2008

Not many comments. But, from what I read
this is exactly what is going to be difficult. We need to expand our horizon and look a little further than"our own nose tip". The example with the large size meals in some restaurants and then the vaste from the same places can be used as a template to look at other areas like energy, water, air ect. It is
almost like an addiction. We have to accept these facts, recognize them and change our habits.

Sent by Uffe Schlein | 8:45 AM ET | 03-30-2008

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