Afghan President Hamid Karzai may have harmed his own cause by misreading American intentions and overseeing the kind of fraudulent election that now makes it harder for the U.S. to extend its commitment to Afghanistan. (Manish Swarup / AP Photo)
By Frank James
Afghan President Hamid Karzai may have unwittingly shot himself in the foot in his effort to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan and all because he mistakenly read U.S. intentions.
How so? According to the Washington Post, President Obama is largely reconsidering his approach to Afghanistan because of the rampant fraud in the recent Afghan elections in which Karzai maintains the dubious vote lead.
A WaPo excerpt:
The principal game-changer, in the view of White House officials, was Afghanistan's presidential election last month, which was compromised by fraud, much of it in support of President Hamid Karzai. Although the results have not been certified, he almost certainly will remain in office, but under a cloud of illegitimacy that could complicate U.S. efforts to promote good governance.
This re-examination of his administration's previous stance, which leaned towards significantly increasing U.S. troop strength to attempt a strong counterinsurgency effort, comes as the leaked report of the U.S.' top general for Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, is being widely reported as saying success in that war-stricken nation will require more troops.
So the scandalously flawed election, where pro-Karzai votes were seen stuffed into ballot boxes at voting stations where few voters ever appeared, appears to be making Obama's national security team rethink their previous position.
Why was there so much election fraud? Ahmed Rashid, the Pakistani journalist who is one of the best experts on Afghanistan offers an intriguing answer in a piece in the New York Review of Books:
Another complicating issue for Obama has been the troubled US relationship with President Hamid Karzai, who in the spring was convinced that Obama and Holbrooke wanted to replace him and hold the elections under a caretaker president. That was never the case, but Karzai's paranoia, which is fostered by some of his aides and brothers, who drum up astounding conspiracy theories about US or British intentions, got the better of him.
That the elections were subject to extensive rigging by Karzai's supporters was partly the result of his belief that the Americans were backing one of the two strongest opposition figures, either Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, which was again not the case. In fact, with so much now invested in Afghanistan, Obama and Holbrooke had every incentive to ensure that the election results were credible. What is now clear, however, is that the flagrantly dishonest elections have undermined the government and its Western backers, jeopardized future Afghan trust in democracy, and given the Taliban more reason to claim they are winning.
categories: Afghanistan
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