'Great Recession Is Over', Economists Say; You Vote — Is It Really?

They're not the official arbiters and they aren't saying that everything's fine or that many folks aren't still hurting.

But the National Association for Business Economics' latest survey of 44 "professional forecasters" shows that they believe "the great recession is over," NABE announced this morning.

In a statement, NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University, says:

"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines. The NABE panel upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey.

"Following a sharp 6.4% (annual rate) contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 0.7% drop in the second quarter, NABE forecasters expect real GDP to rise at an above trend 2.9% rate in the second half. The more-than-three-year downturn in the housing market is very close to coming to an end, with substantial growth (from a low base) expected for next year.

"According to the survey, the key areas of concern involve the large increases in federal debt and unemployment rates that are expected to remain very high through next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10% in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5% by the end of 2010. Inflation is expected to remain contained throughout 2010. The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation."

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Planet Money follows the economy here.

Update at 12:05 p.m. ET. Reaser tells the Associated Press that the recovery is likely to be slow: